Discrete Probability Distributions

Probability Distributions
Before probability distribution is defined formally, the definition of a variable is reviewed. A variable
was defined as a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values. Various letters of the alphabet,
such as X, Y, or Z, are used to represent variables. Since the variables in this chapter are associated with
probability, they are called random variables.
For example, if a die is rolled, a letter such as X can be used to represent the outcomes. Then the value
that X can assume is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, corresponding to the outcomes of rolling a single die.

Discrete variables have a finite number of possible values or an infinite number of values that can be
counted. The word counted means that they can be enumerated using the numbers 1, 2, 3, etc. For example,
the number of joggers in a park each day and the number of phone calls received after TV commercial airs are
examples of discrete variables, since they can be counted.
Variables that can assume all values in the interval between any two given values are called continuous
variables. For example, if the temperature goes from 62 to 78 in a 24-hour period, it has passed through every
possible number from 62 to 78. Continuous random variables are obtained from data that can be measured
rather than counted.
Recall that when three coins are tossed, the sample space is represented as TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, HHT,
HTH, THH, HHH; and if X is the random variable for the number of heads, then X assumes the value 0, 1, 2, or 3
Example 1. Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die.

Example 2. Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample space for tossing three coins.

Example 3. The baseball World Series is played by the winner of the National League and the American League.
The first team to win four games wins the World Series. In other words, the series will consist of four to seven
games, depending on the individual victories. The data shown consist of the number of games played in the
World Series from 1965 through 2005. (There was no World Series in 1994.) The number of games played is
represented by the variable X. Find the probability P(X) for each X, construct a probability distribution, and
draw a graph for the data.

Example 4. Determine whether each distribution is a probability distribution.

Mean

Example 5. Find the mean of the number of spots that appear when a die is tossed.

Example 6. In a family with two children, find the mean of the number of children who will be girls.

Example 7. If three coins are tossed, find the mean of the number of heads that occur.

Example 8. The probability distribution shown represents the number of trips of five nights or more that
American adults take per year. (That is, 6% do not take any trips lasting five nights or more, 70% take one trip
lasting five nights or more per year, etc.) Find the mean.
Variance and Standard Deviation

Example 9. Compute the variance and standard deviation for the probability distribution in Example 5.

Example 10. A box contains 5 balls. Two are numbered 3, one is numbered 4, and two are numbered 5. The
balls are mixed and one is selected at random. After a ball is selected, its number is recorded. Then it is
replaced. If the experiment is repeated many times, find the variance and standard deviation of the numbers
on the balls.

Example 11. A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable to talk (i.e., during a commercial)
or is talking to a person, the other callers are placed on hold. When all lines are in use, others who are trying to
call in get a busy signal. The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people will get through is shown in the distribution.
Find the variance and standard deviation for the distribution.

Should the station have considered getting more phone lines installed?
Expectation
Another concept related to the mean for a probability distribution is that of expected value or expectation.
Expected value is used in various types of games of chance, in insurance, and in other areas, such as decision
theory.

Example 12. One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for a color television valued at $350. What is the
expected value of the gain if you purchase one ticket?

Example 13. One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for four prizes of $100, $50, $25, and $10. After each
prize drawing, the winning ticket is then returned to the pool of tickets. What is the expected value if you
purchase two tickets?

Example 14. A financial adviser suggests that his client select one of two types of bonds in which to invest
$5000. Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y has a 2 ½ % return and a default rate of
1%. Find the expected rate of return and decide which bond would be a better investment. When the bond
defaults, the investor loses all the investment.
The Binomial Distribution
Many types of probability problems have only two outcomes or can be reduced to two outcomes. For example,
when a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails. When a baby is born, it will be either male or female. In a
basketball game, a team either wins or loses. A true/false item can be answered in only two ways, true or false.
Other situations can be reduced to two outcomes. For example, a medical treatment can be classified as
effective or ineffective, depending on the results. A person can be classified as having normal or abnormal
blood pressure, depending on the measure of the blood pressure gauge. A multiple-choice question, even
though there are four or five answer choices, can be classified as correct or incorrect. Situations like these are
called binomial experiments.

A binomial experiment and its results give rise to a special probability distribution called the binomial
distribution.

In binomial experiments, the outcomes are usually classified as successes or failures.

The probability of a success in a binomial experiment can be computed with this formula
Example 15. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.

Example 16. A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a doctor in any given
month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last
month.

Example 17. A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found that 30% of teenage
consumers receive their spending money from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the
probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.

Example 18. Public Opinion reported that 5% of Americans are afraid of being alone in a house at night. If a
random sample of 20 Americans is selected, find these probabilities by using the binomial table.
a. There are exactly 5 people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night.
b. There are at most 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night.
c. There are at least 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night

Example 19. A report from the Secretary of Health and Human Services stated that 70% of single vehicle traffic
fatalities that occur at night on weekends involve an intoxicated driver. If a sample of 15 single-vehicle traffic
fatalities that occur at night on a weekend is selected, find the probability that exactly 12 involve a driver who
is intoxicated.
Example 20. A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of heads
that will be obtained.

Example 21. Adie is rolled 360 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of 4s that
will be rolled.

Example 22. The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported that 2% of all
American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of the number of births that would result in twins.
The Multinomial Distribution
Recall that in order for an experiment to be binomial, two outcomes are required for each trial. But if each trial
in an experiment has more than two outcomes, a distribution called the multinomial distribution must be used.
For example, a survey might require the responses of “approve,” “disapprove,” or “no opinion.”

Example 23. In a large city, 50% of the people choose a movie, 30% choose dinner and a play, and 20% choose
shopping as a leisure activity. If a sample of 5 people is randomly selected, find the probability that 3 are planning
to go to a movie, 1 to a play, and 1 to a shopping mall.

Example 24. In a music store, a manager found that the probabilities that a person buys 0, 1, or 2 or more CDs
are 0.3, 0.6, and 0.1, respectively. If 6 customers enter the store, find the probability that 1 won’t buy any CDs,
3 will buy 1 CD, and 2 will buy 2 or more CDs.

Example 25. A box contains 4 white balls, 3 red balls, and 3 blue balls. A ball is selected at random, and its color
is written down. It is replaced each time. Find the probability that if 5 balls are selected, 2 are white, 2 are red,
and 1 is blue.
The Poisson Distribution
A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small and when the independent
variables occur over a period of time is called the Poisson distribution. In addition to being used for the stated
conditions (i.e., n is large, p is small, and the variables occur over a period of time), the Poisson distribution can
be used when a density of items is distributed over a given area or volume, such as the number of plants growing
per acre or the number of defects in a given length of videotape

Example 26. If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript, find the
probability that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.

Example 27. A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any given hour, find
the probability that it will receive the following.
a. At most 3 calls b. At least 3 calls c. 5 or more calls

Example 28. If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-handed, find the probability that
exactly 5 people there are left-handed.
The Hypergeometric Distribution
When sampling is done without replacement, the binomial distribution does not give exact probabilities,
since the trials are not independent. The smaller the size of the population, the less accurate the binomial
probabilities will be.
The hypergeometric distribution is a distribution of a variable that has two outcomes when sampling is
done without replacement.

Example 29. Ten people apply for a job as assistant manager of a restaurant. Five have completed college and
five have not. If the manager selects 3 applicants at random, find the probability that all 3 are college graduates.

Example 30. A recent study found that 2 out of every 10 houses in a neighborhood have no insurance. If 5 houses
are selected from 10 houses, find the probability that exactly 1will be uninsured.

Example 31. A lot of 12 compressor tanks is checked to see whether there are any defective tanks. Three tanks
are checked for leaks. If 1 or more of the 3 is defective, the lot is rejected. Find the probability that the lot will
be rejected if there are actually 3 defective tanks in the lot