Probability Theory: Addition, Multiplication, Conditional
Probability, Bayes Theorem
Probability Distribution: Binomial, Poisson & Normal
Distribution
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Topics
Concepts
Addition Law
Multiplication Law
Conditional Probability
Bayes’ Theorem
Normal Distribution
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Concepts
Factorial
Permutation
Combination
Random Experiment
Events
Elementary Events
Compound Events
Mutually Exclusive Events
Complementary Events
Equally Likely Events
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Random Experiment
Experiment: An operation which can produce some well-defined outcomes
Random Experiment: If in each trial of an experiment conducted under identical
conditions, the outcome is not unique, but may be any of the possible outcomes
then such an experiment is known as random experiment
E.g. Rolling of an unbiased die, tossing a fair coin, drawing a card from a
well shuffled pack of cards 4
Events
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes in a random experiment is called a
sample space and is denoted by S. E.g. In tossing a fair coin, there are two possible
outcomes S = { H, T}
Event : Any subset of a sample space is called an event
Elementary Events: An event containing only a single sample point is called an
elementary event or simple event. In a simultaneous toss of two coins, the sample
space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} then E1 = {HH} & E2 = {TT} are elementary events.
Compound Events: Events which contain more than one element are known as
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compound/composite events.
Events
Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are said to be mutually
exclusive when both cannot happen simultaneously.
Complementary Events: If A be an event of the number of favorable
cases in the experiment, then A’ (called complementary event of A) is
the number of non-favorable cases in the experiment. Clearly the events
A & A’ are mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive.
Equally Likely Events: Events are said to be equally likely, if none of
them is expected to occur in preference to the other i.e. one does not
occur more often than the others.
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Addition Law
If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the addition law can be stated
as : P ( A U B ) = P( A ) + P ( B ) – P(A ∩ B)
P (A U B) = n ( A U B) / n ( U )
Addition law for mutually exclusive events can be extended to cover any no. of events.
P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C ) – [P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ C) + P(B ∩ C)] + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
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Conditional Probability
Probabilities associated with the events defined on the subsets are called
conditional probabilities.
The conditional probability of A, given B, is equal to the probability of A ∩ B
divided by the probability of B, provided that the probability of B is not zero.
i.e. P ( A / B) =P (A ∩ B )/ P (B); P (B) ≠ 0
P ( B / A) =P (A ∩ B )/ P (A); P (A) ≠ 0
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Multiplication Law
“ The probability of the joint occurrence of event A and event B is equal
to the conditional probability of A given B, times the probability of B. “
i.e. P (A ∩ B) = P (A/B) * P (B)
P (B ∩ A) = P (B/A) * P (A)
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Dependent Event
Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence or non-occurrence
of one event in any trial affects the probability of other events in other
trials
The probability of any event is conditional, or depends upon the
occurrence or non-occurrence of other events
If A and B are dependent events, P (A ∩ B) = P (A/B) * P (B)
or P (B ∩ A) = P (B/A) * P (A)
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Independent Event
Two events are said to be independent, if the probability of the
occurrence of one event will not affect the probability of the occurrence
of the second event
P (A∩B) = P (A) * P (B)
P (A/B) = P (A) & P (B/A) = P (B)
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Baye’s Theorem
Let E1 , E2 ,… En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated
with a random experiment
If A is any event which occurs with E1 or E2 … or En, then
P (Ei/A) = P (Ei) P (A/Ei)
--------------------- ; i= 1,2,…..n.
n
Σ P (Ei) P (A/Ei)
i=1
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