MANISH KALIA'S MATHEMATICS CLASSES 9878146388

PROBABILITY

Some Definitions : Probability :

Experiment : A operation which can produce some In a random experiment, let S be the sample space
well defined outcomes is known as an experiment. and E ⊆ S, then E is an event.
Random experiment : If in each trail of an The probability of occurrence of event E is defined as
experiment conducted under identical conditions, the
number of distinct elements in E n(E)
outcome is not unique, then such an experiment is P(E) = =
called a random experiment. number of distinct element in S n(S)
Sample space : The set of all possible outcomes in number of outocomes favourable to occurrence of E
an experiment is called a sample space. For example, =
number of all possible outcomes
in a throw of dice, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6}. Each element of a sample space is called a sample Notations :
point. Let A and B be two events, then
Event : A ∪ B or A + B stands for the occurrence of at
An event is a subset of a sample space. least one of A and B.
Simple event : An event containing only a single A ∩ B or AB stands for the simultaneous
sample point is called an elementary or simple event. occurrence of A and B.
Events other than elementary are called composite or A´ ∩ B´ stands for the non-occurrence of both A
compound or mixed events. and B.
For example, in a single toss of coin, the event of A ⊆ B stands for "the occurrence of A implies
getting a head is a simple event. occurrence of B".
Here S = {H, T} and E = {H} Random variable :
In a simultaneous toss of two coins, the event of A random variable is a real valued function whose
getting at least one head is a compound event. domain is the sample space of a random experiment.
Here S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} and E = {HH, HT, TH} Bay’s rule :
Equally likely events : The given events are said to Let (Hj) be mutually exclusive events such that
be equally likely, if none of them is expected to occur n
in preference to the other. P(Hj) > 0 for j = 1, 2, ..... n and S = U H j . Let A be
j=1
Mutually exclusive events : If two or more events
have no point in common, the events are said to be an events with P(A) > 0, then for j = 1, 2, .... , n
mutually exclusive. Thus E1 and E2 are mutually  Hj  P(H j )P(A / H j )
exclusive in E1 ∩ E2 = φ. P   =
 n
 A  ∑ P(H k ) P(A / H k )
The events which are not mutually exclusive are
k =1
known as compatible events.
Exhaustive events : A set of events is said to be Binomial Distribution :
totally exhaustive (simply exhaustive), if no event out If the probability of happening of an event in a single
side this set occurs and at least one of these event trial of an experiment be p, then the probability of
must happen as a result of an experiment. happening of that event r times in n trials will be nCr
Independent and dependent events : If there are pr (1 – p)n – r.
events in which the occurrence of one does not Some important results :
depend upon the occurrence of the other, such events Number of cases favourable to event A
are known as independent events. On the other hand, (A) P(A) =
Total number of cases
if occurrence of one depend upon other, such events
are known as dependent events. n(A)
=
n(S)

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MANISH KALIA'S MATHEMATICS CLASSES 9878146388

Number of cases not favourable to event A (i) Probability of happening none of them
P(A) =
Total number of cases = (1 – p1) (1 – p2) ........ (1 – pn)
n(A) (ii) Probability of happening at least one of them
=
n(S) = 1 – (1 – p1) (1 – p2) ....... (1 – pn)

(B) Odd in favour and odds against an event : As a (iii) Probability of happening of first event and not
result of an experiment if “a” of the outcomes are happening of the remaining
favourable to an event E and b of the outcomes are = p1(1 – p2) (1 – p3) ....... (1 – pn)
against it, then we say that odds are a to b in favour If A and B are any two events, then
of E or odds are b to a against E.
Thus odds in favour of an event E B
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P   or
A
Number of favourable cases a
= =
Number of unfavourable cases b B
P(AB) = P(A) . P  
Similarly, odds against an event E A
Number of unfavourable cases b B
= = Where P   is known as conditional probability
Number of favorable cases a A
Note : means probability of B when A has occured.
If odds in favour of an event are a : b, then the Difference between mutually exclusiveness and
probability of the occurrence of that event is independence : Mutually exclusiveness is used
a when the events are taken from the same
and the probability of non-occurrence of
a+b experiment and independence is used when the
b events are taken from the same experiments.
that event is .
a+b (E) P(A A ) = 0
If odds against an event are a : b, then the P(AB) + P( AB ) = 1
probability of the occurrence of that event is
b P( A B) = P(B) – P(AB)
and the probability of non-occurrence of
a+b P(A B ) = P(A) – P(AB)
a P(A + B) = P(A B ) + P( A B) + P(AB)
that event is .
a+b
Some important remark about coins, dice and playing
(C) P(A) + P( A ) = 1 cards :
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 Coins : A coin has a head side and a tail side. If
P(φ) = 0 an experiment consists of more than a coin, then
coins are considered to be distinct if not otherwise
P(S) = 1
stated.
If S = {A1, A2, ..... An}, then
Dice : A die (cubical) has six faces marked 1, 2,
P(A1) + P(A2) + .... + P(An) = 1 3, 4, 5, 6. We may have tetrahedral (having four
If the probability of happening of an event in one faces 1, 2, 3, 4,) or pentagonal (having five faces
trial be p, then the probability of successive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) die. As in the case of coins, If we
happening of that event in r trials is pr. have more than one die, then all dice are
(D) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then considered to be distinct if not otherwise stated.
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) or Playing cards : A pack of playing cards usually
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) has 52 cards. There are 4 suits (Spade, Heart,
If A and B are any two events, then Diamond and Club) each having 13 cards. There
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B) or are two colours red (Heart and Diamond) and
black (Spade and Club) each having 26 cards.
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
In thirteen cards of each suit, there are 3 face cards or
If A and B are two independent events, then
coart card namely king, queen and jack. So there are
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B) or in all 12 face cards (4 kings, 4 queens and 4 jacks).
P(AB) = P(A) . P(B) Also there are 16 honour cards, 4 of each suit namely
If the probabilities of happening of n independent ace, king, queen and jack.
events be p1, p2, ...... , pn respectively, then

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