Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021) 28:68251–68260

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14986-0

RESEARCH ARTICLE

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

on socio-economic and sustainability

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Xueli Wei 1,2 & Lijing Li 1 & Fan Zhang 1

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Received: 5 April 2021 / Accepted: 15 June 2021 / Published online: 15 July 2021
# The Author(s) 2021

Pumping elephant

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The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the lives of people around the world in millions of ways . Due to this severe
epidemic, all countries in the world have been affected by all aspects, mainly economic. It is widely discussed that the COVID-19
outbreak has affected the world economy. When considering this dimension, this study aims to examine the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy, socio-economics, and sustainability. In addition, the research focuses on multiple

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aspects of social well-being during the pandemic, such as employment, poverty, the status of women, food security, and global
trade. To this end, the study used time series and cross-sectional analysis of the data. The second-hand data used in this study
comes from the websites of major international organizations. From the analysis of secondary data, the conclusion of this article is
that the impact of the pandemic is huge. The main finding of the thesis is that the social economy is affected by the pandemic,
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causing huge losses in terms of economic well-being and social capital.

Key words coronavirus disease . Pandemic . poor . Employment . food safety . Social economy . Sustainability
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Introduction Sundararaj et al. (2018) Rejeesh 2019; Sundararaj et al. 2018;

Vinu 2019; Sundararaj 2016; Tiwari et al. 2021; Sundararaj
As the new coronavirus rages and affects people on all conti- and Rejeesh 2021).
nents exponentially, the entire world is in a state of panic and The world is expected to face a severe recession even if the
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pain. It is difficult to point out that a country has not been spread of the virus is controlled. The effects of this pandemic
affected by this deadly virus. Few single epidemics have a will haunt mankind for several years in terms of employment,
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serious and lasting impact on the world economy, global health care systems, income, and human development.
health, and human life as a whole. Even though not many people are dying due to the infec-
The Great Influenza Pandemic broke out from 1918 to tion of the deadly virus, the number of people that are being
1920, which was considered as the fourth-largest macroeco- affected in a region are causing health systems to break down
nomic shock that affected the economy adversely after the two resulting in more deaths. To deal with the COVID-19 out-
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World Wars and The Great Depression (Barro and Weng break, strong prevention measures such as strengthening the
2020). It has been found using geographic mortality variation immune system and improving the proper sanitary conditions
that during the pandemic of 1918, the areas of the USA which which are often lacking in most middle- and low-income
were exposed to the pandemic experienced a persistent and countries should be stressed. Thus, the people at the lowest
steep decline in the economic activities (Sergio et al. 2020; rung of the economy are more vulnerable to the virus.
Developing countries were already facing shortage of funds
Editor in charge: Lotfi Aleya to undertake developmental and infrastructure projects. Due to
the pandemic, more funds are now being allotted to emergen-
* Fan Zhang cy health care systems making these projects all the more
fanzhang.research@gmail.com difficult to undertake. Generally, 3–4% of the gross domestic
product of a country is spent on costs related to illnesses
1
Harbin Medical University, Daqing 163319, Heilongjiang, China resulting from high fatality scenarios, especially during the
2
University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100102, pandemic times. It is found that the percentage is higher for
China extreme pandemics (Smith et al. 2009).
68252 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260

To contain the spread of the virus, most countries have over time are adjusted for price changes. The numbers are also
implemented lockdown measures. However, lockdown mea- adjusted based on seasonal influences. The indicator is avail-
sures have severely affected the economy and a large number able in different measures: percentage change from the previ-
of people. Several people lost their jobs while several others ous quarter, percentage change from the same quarter of the
are undergoing pay-cuts, which is affecting the income of their previous year, and volume index. All OECD countries com-
respective families. Essential services such as logistics have pile their data according to the 2008 System of National

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been halted due to the strict measures implemented in the Accounts (SNA).
pandemic times. Even education is being compromised, and,
as a result, schools, colleges, and universities are closed. If b. Unemployment rate
widespread behavioral changes take place due to the lock-
down and large-scale absence from work is persistent, the Unemployment rate forecast is defined as the projected

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economic damage will be far greater than the health benefits value for the number of unemployed people as a percentage
(Smith et al. 2009). of the labor force, where the latter consists of the unemployed
Economic conditions across the world are also in a state of plus those in paid or self-employment. Unemployed people

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destitution. Global production has suffered, along with vari- are those who report that they are without work, that they are
ous service industries primarily including tourism and airlines, available for work, and that they have taken active steps to
due to strict lockdown measures. Since the future is uncertain, find work in the last 4 weeks. When unemployment is high,
investment rates will remain low. However, private invest- some people get discouraged and stop looking for work; they
ments will be extremely important, especially in developing are then excluded from the labor force.

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countries because governments are already running out of
funds, as they are dealing with the pandemic and will thus c. Global activity indicator
be unable to take up investment projects.
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Social and humanitarian aspects of the pandemic are also Air pollution is the change in NO2 emissions from January
causing stress and anxiety in the public. Women, children, and 1 to May 28 in 2019 and 2020.
the elderly are highly exposed to the virus, as they are among Retail and recreation mobility is the change in percent from
the weaker sections of the society and thus are more vulnera- May 21, 2020, from baseline, which is the median value for
ble. The lockdown has also compromised the safety of wom- the corresponding day of the week during the 5-week period
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en, and increased cases of domestic violence have been re- January 3–February 6, 2020, based on data from Google.
ported. Refugees, informal sector workers, and the unem- Flight cancellations show the cancellations relative to total
ployed often find it hard to access government-provided planned flights based on comparing currently operating flights
health care schemes and other benefits. It is noted that the in 2020 with flights that were operating 52 weeks ago in 2019
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above listed people were the most affected by the pandemic. as of May 27, 2020.
Therefore, the COVID-19 situation has left its mark on OpenTable reservations show the change in seated dinners
every part of our society and has changed our way of life at restaurants on the OpenTable network on May 27 in 2019
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forever. and 2020.

Method
Materials and methods
This study employs out both time series and cross-sectional
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Data description analysis of data. The data used in this study are secondary and
have been sourced from the websites of major international
a. Quarterly GDP organizations.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of

the value-added created through the production of goods and Results
services in a country. As such, it also measures the income
earned from the production or the total amount spent on final Let us look at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on
goods and services (fewer imports). While GDP is the most various aspects of sustainability and social economy.
important indicator to capture economic activity, it falls short
of providing a suitable measure of people’s material well- Poverty
being for which alternative indicators may be more appropri-
ate. This indicator is based on real GDP (also called GDP at Global poverty is defined as the share of the population of the
constant prices or GDP in volume), i.e., the developments world earning less than 1.9 dollars a day.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260 68253

The World Bank estimates that the COVID-19 pan- OECD Economic Outlook projects the global GDP to fall
demic will push about 40 to 60 million people into ex- in 2020 by more than 7%. In OECD countries, the situation is
treme poverty (Gerzon Mahler et al. 2020). The Global worse. OECD GDP is forecasted to fall by more than 9% in
Economic Prospects (World Bank 2020) forecast two sce- 2020. Under the single hit scenario, global GDP is anticipated
narios of the effect that the pandemic might have on pov- to drop by 6% and OECD GDP by more than 7% in 2020. In
erty. One in which the outbreak remains at the current the second quarter of 2020, world output is forecasted to be

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expected level and economic activities recover during more than 12% lower than in the previous quarter (OECD
the latter part of this year and another in which the out- 2020b).
break continues for a longer period of time to force the
introduction and furthering of lockdown measures. The
former will contract global growth by about 5% in 2020 Unemployment

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while the latter will lead to a growth contraction of 8%.
Figure 1 shows the quarterly GDP for the first quarter of Employment is a primary aspect of sustainable development
2020 for 41 countries based on the availability of data (see in any society. It is essential for people to have respectable

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Table 1 in the Appendix for tabulated values) (OECD 2020a). jobs for them to enjoy the growth of the economy (Osmani
Figure 2 shows the aggregate OECD GDP for a period of 2003; Monia and Rim 2018; Kabanda 2016;Messkoub 2018;
21 years (2000–2020) (see Table 2 in the Appendix for Alauddin 2016; Padovan et al. 2019).
tabulated values) (OECD 2020a). The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the world to
If the outbreak persists, vulnerable households will reduce the biggest decline in employment since the Second

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consumption by a great margin and firms in critical conditions World War. Since all activities came to a halt due to the
will exit markets. Increased financial stress will be experi- global pandemic, employment experienced a massive and
enced by middle- and low-income countries. halting blow. Most people working in the informal sector
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For the first time, global poverty is forecasted to in- have a little or no savings at all. Due to the recent
crease, since 1998. It is forecasted that it will increase to COVID-19 crisis, they lost almost 60% of their income
8.6% in 2020 from 8.2% in 2019. In absolute terms, the (World Bank Predicts Sharpest Decline of Remittances in
number will rise to 655 million people from 632 million Recent History 2020).
(Sumner et al. 2020). Figure 4 shows the unemployment rate for the first
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Global growth is also forecasted to fall by the World Bank. quarter of 2020 for 31 countries based on the availability
Figure 3 shows the aggregate growth rates calculated using of data (see Table 4 in the Appendix for tabulated values)
GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates for 12 (OECD 2020b).
years (2010–2021) (data for 2019 are estimates) (see Table 3 Figure 5 shows the aggregate unemployment rate in OECD
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in the Appendix for tabulated values) (Global Economic countries for a period of 21 years (2000–2020) (see Table 5 in
Prospects 2020). the Appendix for tabulated values) (OECD 2020c).
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Fig. 1 Quarterly GDP for 2020

68254 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260

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Fig. 2 Aggregate OECD GDP

The lockdown has been in effect in several countries along The impact on women
with school and workplace closures, travel restrictions, and
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social distancing policies. By the beginning of April, almost Seventy percent of the people working in the health care
81% of the total workforce in the world experienced work- and social sector are women (United Nations 2020).
place closures. Even though these measures were necessary, Front-line health workers including nurses and midwives
they adversely affected firms and workers. are mostly women. They also form a majority of the ser-
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Figure 6 shows the percentage change in global activ- vice staff in the health care sector like laundry, catering,
ities indicators around the world, namely, air pollution and cleaning. Thus, they are more vulnerably exposed to
retail and recreation mobility, flight cancellations, and the virus.
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OpenTable reservations (see Table 6 in the Appendix for Women undertake thrice as much unpaid work as men.
tabulated values) (Global Economic Prospects 2020). The situation is projected to get worse under the COVID-
The ILO (International Labour Organization) has 19 pandemic because children will remain out of school,
projected the global work hours around the world to de- older persons will require attentive care, and the health
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crease by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2020 and 10.5% in service will collapse under severe conditions of the pan-
the second amounting to 305 million workers working demic (UN Women Headquarters 2020).
48 h a week. This outpaces the fall in employment during Women generally live close to poverty and hold insecure
the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–09 (ILO 2020). jobs. They earn less and save less. The compounded economic

Fig. 3 Global growth rates

Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260 68255

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Fig. 4 Unemployment rate for countries

hardships resulting from the pandemic will thus have severe the first quarter of 2020 the volume of goods and services

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effects on women. traded have suffered a fall of 3%. This is because inter-
Gender-based violence is increasing exponentially with national travel has been restricted to contain the spread of
social isolation measures and restrictions in movement. the virus.
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Due to the lockdown effect, women are being forced to Demand has collapsed and supplies disrupted due to the
stay at home with their abusers. Also, services to offer cessation of international travel. International freight traffic in
assistance to the survivors are also being disrupted, in 2020 has been 30% lower than that of the previous year and
these pandemic times. Various countries around the world international passenger traffic is 98% lower than the previous
have reported an increase in the number of complaints year.
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related to domestic violence. Global export figures reached an all-time low in April
Women have unique health needs. However, they have lost 2020 and remained weak throughout May. Almost all the
access to quality health services, reproductive and maternal countries reported significant declines in trade values.
health care, and essential vaccines and medications. Gender Countries with relatively light containment measures
stereotypes and restrictive social norms can also adversely are also suffering because of reduced external demand
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affect the accessibility of health services to women. due to the pandemic.

UNCTAD nowcasts for global trade values in the first
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Global trade quarter of 2020 fell by 3% with respect to the previous quarter.
UNCTAD’s Free Market Commodity Price Index
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, global trade is also (FMCPI) lost 1.2% of its value in January, 8.5% in
experiencing a halting effect. It is estimated that within February, and 20.4% in March. The FMCPI never fell by
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Fig. 5 OECD employment rates

68256 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260

Fig. 6 Percentage change in

global activity indicators

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20% in a single month before this. The closest case was during and make these people more vulnerable to the coronavirus.

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the time of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–09 when it Movement restrictions, strained health systems, and falling
decreased by 18.6% (Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next incomes have increased rates of malnutrition especially
Quarter’s Unemployment Rate 2020; COVID-19 and the St. among lactating and pregnant women, children, and the elder-
Louis Fed 2020; Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, ly. Families which entirely rely on the feeding programs of
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Unanticipated, and Severe Viral Outbreaks 2020; COVID- schools to fill food gaps are also on the verge of facing acute
19 2020b; Inanc 2020; St-Denis 2020; Social Distancing and food insecurity.
Contact-Intensive Occupations 2020; Adams-Prassl et al. Even though the 2020 harvest has been good and the out-
2020; Dasgupta and Murali 2020). look for stable crops is quite promising, movement restrictions
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have disrupted the transport and processing of food crops

along with other essential items. The availability of basic food
Food security
items has also been compromised due to increased delivery
times.
Under the present circumstances, the COVID-19 pandemic
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will double the number of people facing food crisis. UN fore-

casts that 265 million people in middle- and low-income
countries are at the risk of facing acute food insecurity by Conclusion
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the end of 2020. At present, 135 million people are acutely

facing food security. They are spread across 55 countries We can thus conclude that the most severe effects of the
across the world and are in urgent need of humanitarian food COVID-19 pandemic have been felt by the weaker sections
and nutrition assistance (UNWTO reports 2020; Unwto of the society including women, the unemployed, and the
Reports 2020; COVID-19 2020a). They are the most vulner- poor. The virus has left its mark on all aspects of social
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able to the virus as they have little or no capacity to deal with well-being and has adversely affected the sustainability of
the socio-economic and health aspects of the pandemic (FSIN. the earth. Keeping in mind the huge amount of losses different
Global Report on Food Crises 2020; Global Report on Food sectors had to incur due to the pandemic, careful measures
Crises 2020; HLPE 2020). must be taken to fight the current pandemic and prevent future
Countries suffering from acute food security are facing a pandemics. The worst affected areas of the social economy
terrible trade-off between saving people from the virus and to include poverty, employment, women’s well-being, and glob-
have them die from hunger. The health systems in these coun- al trade. These are perhaps the most important aspects of hu-
tries are already overstretched with an acute shortage of equip- man development and the pandemic undid most advancement
ment, doctors, and medicines. The poorer sections of the so- made in these sectors.
ciety often lack sufficient financial means to access health care
and/or live in remote areas where these services never reach. Author contribution FZ agreed on the content of the study. XW and LL
collected all the data for analysis. FZ agreed on the methodology. XW
Food insecure people generally have higher rates of under-
and LL completed the analysis based on agreed steps. Results and con-
lying health problems including malnutrition and other non- clusions are discussed and written together. The author read and approved
communicable diseases which weaken the immune system the final manuscript.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260 68257

Funding 1. Heilongjiang Provincial Education Science Planning Office’s Appendix

Special Project “Research on the Strategy for the Prevention and Control
of the Epidemic in the Context of the COVID-19”: Law Popularization
Education Research on the Rule of Public Health Rule of Law in
Institutions and Universities under Public Health Emergencies, No. Table 1 Quarterly GDP
for 2020 Country GDP
GJE1320136
2. Key topics of Heilongjiang Education and Science “13th Five-Year

E
Plan” in 2018: Practical Research on the Innovative Talent Training China −9.8
Mechanism of Heilongjiang Higher Medical Colleges, No. Iceland −7.01243

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GBB1318076. France −5.3432
3. Heilongjiang Economic and Social Development Key Research Italy −5.30942
Project Base: Research on the Legal Culture Construction of Traditional
Chinese Medicine under the Context of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Spain −5.23722
Law, No.: JD2017021. Slovak Republic −5.15558
4. Heilongjiang Provincial University Basic Scientific Research Slovenia −4.53152

I
Business Fees Research Project: Research on the Effective Mechanism
Portugal −3.76245
of the Integration of Outstanding Traditional Chinese Culture into the

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Ideological and Political Education of Universities, No. 2018-KYYWF- Estonia −3.69071
0594. Belgium −3.59499
5. Heilongjiang Philosophy and Social Science Research Project: Czech Republic −3.33146
Research on Intellectual Property Protection of New Fields and New
Business Innovation Achievements, No.: 19FXB039. Latvia −2.90032
−2.60701

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6. Heilongjiang Philosophy and Social Science Research Project: Switzerland
Research on Labor Employment and Social Security for People with Austria −2.56337
Mental Disabilities in Heilongjiang Province, No. 17GLB026.
Columbia −2.38534
7. Daqing Campus of Harbin Medical University “In-School Scientific
Germany −2.2218
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Research Fund”: Legal Research on the Protection of Intellectual
Property Rights in Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. DQXN201612. Canada −2.10899
8. Special topics for the study of the integration of outstanding tradi- Denmark −2.07292
tional culture into ideological and political courses on the Daqing campus
UK −1.97549
of Harbin Medical University: the integration of excellent traditional cul-
ture into ideological and political courses, the enhancement of cultural Israel −1.83293
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consciousness and self-confidence, number: DQCTWH201801. Netherlands −1.71629

9. Special Research Project on the Integration of Excellent Traditional Greece −1.59793
Chinese Culture into Thought and Administration Courses on Daqing
Campus of Harbin Medical University: Research on the Effective Norway −1.5473
Mechanism of the Integration of Chinese Excellent Traditional Culture Brazil −1.53942
into College Thought and Political Science Courses, No. USA −1.28638
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DQCTWH201802.
Korea −1.2817
10. Sichuan Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Key Research
Base Sichuan Medical and Health Law Research Center 2016 Project: Mexico −1.24098
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Research on Labor Rights Protection for People with Mental Disabilities Finland −0.85926
in Northeast China, No. YF16-Y02. Indonesia −0.68672
11 Key project of Daqing philosophy and social science planning
research: research on the construction of healthy Daqing, number: Japan −0.56517
DSGB2019035. Poland −0.40394
Hungary −0.39062
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Data availability The datasets used and/or analyzed during the present Lithuania −0.34324
study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Australia −0.30586
Sweden 0.121829
Declarations
Human and animal rights Bulgaria 0.288235
This article does not contain any studies with human or animal sub- Romania 0.314825
jects performed by any of the authors. Turkey 0.615463
Informed consent
India 0.65894
Informed consent does not apply as this was a retrospective review
with no identifying patient information. Ireland 1.166176
Consent for participate Chile 3.034375
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
68258 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260

Table 2 Aggregate Table 4 Unemployment

OECD GDP Year OECD GDP rate for countries Country Unemployment rate

2000 4.120418 Spain 17.0

2001 1.402737 Italy 11.0
2002 1.678441 Sweden 9.5
2003 2.107335 France 9.3

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2004 3.340186 Finland 8.4
2005 2.907985 Portugal 8.3

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2006 3.206121 USA 8.2
2007 2.691061 Ireland 8.1
2008 0.359443 Canada 7.7
2009 −3.35533 Lithuania 7.4

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2010 3.050615 Australia 7.4
2011 2.08932 UK 7.2

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2012 1.384969 Estonia 7.1
2013 1.611147 Luxembourg 7.1
2014 2.207396 Denmark 6.4
2015 2.575601 Belgium 6.3

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2016 1.841686 Slovak Republic 6.3
2017 2.666721 New Zealand 6.0
2018 2.31723 Switzerland 6.0
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2019 2.68 Mexico 5.9
2020 −1.8 Israel 5.8
Iceland 5.5
Poland 5.1
Austria 4.9
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Netherlands 4.6
Norway 4.2
Korea 4.1
Germany 3.9
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Czech Republic 3.8

Hungary 3.8
Japan 3.1
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Table 3 Global growth

rates Year Global growth rate

2010 4.4
2011 3.3
2012 2.5
2013 2.7
2014 2.9
2015 2.9
2016 2.6
2017 3.3
2018 3.0
2019 2.4
2020 −5.2
2021 4.2
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:68251–68260 68259

Table 5 OECD
Year OECD employment rate
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