PROBABILITY

Unit - 8
PROBABILITY
IMPORTANT DEFINITIONS AND RESULTS

1. Random Experiment: An experiment whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty is

called a random experiment.
Examples: (i) Tossing of a coin is a random experiment.
(ii) Throwing a die is a random experiment.

2. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space
for that experiment. It is denoted by S.
Example : (i) When a coin is tossed sample space S = {H, T}
(ii) When a die is thrown, sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

3. Event : A subset of the sample space is called an event.

Example : When a die is thrown, sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let A = {2, 3, 5}, B = {2, 4, 6}, C = {5, 6}
Here A denotes the event of occurrence of a prime number, B denotes the event of occurrence
of an even number and C denotes the event of occurrence of a number greater than 4.
 Note :
(i)  is also a subset of S and  is called an impossible event.
(ii) S is also a subset of S and S is called a sure event.

4. Probability of occurrence of an event:

Let S be the sample space and E be an event. Then the probability (or chance) of
occurrence of the event E is denoted by P(E) and is defined as
n (E) no. of cases favourable to event E
P( E ) = =
n (S) total no. of cases
(1) Clearly, 0  P (E)  1 P (E) = 0  E =  and P (E) = 1  E = S
(2) P (E) + P (E' ) = 1 or P (E' ) = 1 – P (E)

5. Odds in favour and odds against an event:

n (E) no. of cases favourable to event E
(a) Odds in favour of an event E = =
n (E' ) number of cases against E
n (E' ) numbe r of cases against E
(b) Odds against an event E = =
n (E) no. of cases in favour of E

P (E)
(c) Odds in favour of E =
P (E' )

P (E' )
(d) Odds against E =
P (E)

 Note :
If any one of P (E), odds in favour of E and odds against E is given, others can be
determined.
Example: (1)
3 3 4
(i) If P (E) = , then odds in favour of E = and odds against E =
7 4 3

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PROBABILITY

7 10 10
(ii) If odds against E = , then P (E) = and odds in favour of E =
10 17 7

6. Some symbols:
Let A and B be any two events, then
(a) A  B denotes the event of occurrence of at least one of the events A and B
(b) A  B denotes the event of occurrence of both the events A and B.
(c) P (A/B) denotes the probability of occurrence of event A when B has already occurred
n (A  B)
P(A/B) = , where B  
n (B)
Example: When a die is thrown, sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let A = the event of occurrence of a prime number = {2, 3, 5}, B = the event of occurrence of a
number greater than 4 = {5, 6}
 A  B = {5}
Then P (A/B) = the event of occurrence of a prime number when a number greater than 4 has
1 n (A  B)
already occurred = =
2 n (B)
 Note :
For two events E and F (F  )
P (E/F) + P(E' /F) = 1 [ n (E  F) + n (E'F) = n (F)]

7. Mutually exclusive events:

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if one of them occurs, others cannot
occur.
Examples:
(i) When a die is thrown, the event of occurrence of an odd number and the event of
occurrence of an even number are mutually exclusive events.
(ii) When a die is thrown, the event of occurrence of an odd number and the event of
occurrence of a number greater than 4 are not mutually exclusive because if 5 comes up
both these events will occur.
 Note :
Events A1, A2, ……An are mutually exclusive iff Ai  Aj =  for i  j

8. Independent events or mutually independent events:

Two or more events are said to be independent if the probability of occurrence or
nonoccurrence of any of them does not change by occurrence or non–occurrence of other
events.
Example: When two cards are drawn out of a pack of 52 playing cards with replacement, then
the event of drawing a king in the first draw and the event of drawing a king in the second draw
are independent events but if the cards are drawn without replacement then the two events
are not independent.
From definition of independent events it is clear that if A and B are independent events, then :
(i) A ' and B are independent events
(ii) A and B' are independent events
(iii) A ' and B' are independent events.
(iv) Non–empty (non–impossible) mutually exclusive events cannot be independent.
(v) Non–impossible independent events cannot be mutually exclusive.

9. Theorem of Total Probability of Addition Theorem of Probability:

(a) If A and B are any two events in the sample space S, then
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
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PROBABILITY

(b) For three events A, B, C

P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A  B) – P(B  C) – P(A  C) + P(A  B  C)
(c) General form:
For n events A1, A2, … An
n
P(A1  A2  ....  An ) =  P( A ) –  P( A
i =1
i
i j
j  Aj) +  P( A
i  j k
i  A j  A k ) + .... + (–1) n –1

P(A1  A 2  .....  A n )
(d) Events A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if P (A  B) P(A) + P(B) P ( A  B) is also
denoted by P (A + B)
(e) If events A, B, C are mutually exclusive then
P (A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
(f) If events A1, A2, …, An are mutually exclusive, then
P(A1  A 2  ....  A n ) = P(A1 ) + P(A 2 ) + .... + P(A n )

10. Theorem of Compound Probability or Multiplication Theorem of Probability:

If A and B are any two events in the same sample space S and A  , then
P(A  B) = P(A) . P(B/A)
Also P(A  B) = P(B) . P(A/B), B  
(a) If A and B are independent events, then P (B/A) = P(B) and P (A/B) = P(A).
(b) If A and B are independent events, then P (A  B) = P (A) . P (B)
P (A  B) is also denoted by P (A. B)
(c) Two events A and B are independent if and only if P (A  B) = P (A). P (B).
(d) Three events A, B and C are independent if and only if
P (A  B) = P (A) . P (B),
P (B  C) = P (B) . P (C),
P (A  C) = P (A) . P (C),
and P (A  B  C) = P (A) . P (B) . P (C)
(e) For three events A, B, C
P (A  B  C) = P (A) . P (B/A) . P (C/A  B) i.e. P (ABC) = P (A) . P (B/A) . P (C/AB)
(f) For four events A, B, C and D
P (ABCD) = P (A) . P (B/A)
P (C/AB) . P (D/ABC)
(g) If A1, A2, …,An are n independent events, then
P (A1  A 2  ...  A n ) = P (A1 ) . P (A 2 )....P (A n )

11.If A and B are independent events, then P(A  B) = 1 – P (A' ) . P(B' )

In general for independent events A1 , A 2 ,...., A n
P (A1  A 2  ....  A n ) = 1 – P (A' ) . P (A' 2 )...P (A' n )
i.e. probability of occurrence of at least one event = 1 – probability of non–occurrence of all
the events.
 Note :
P(A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B) [always valid]
But P (A  B) = 1 – P (A' ) . P (B' )
[Valid only when A and B are independent]

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PROBABILITY

12. If an event A is known to occur together with one of the events A1, A2, …,An forming a mutually
exclusive and collectively exhaustive events. (i.e. A1, A2, …,An are mutually exclusive and they
cover all possible cases of an experiment), then
P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A/A1 ) + P (A 2 ) . P (A/A 2 ) + ….+ P (An) . P (A/An)
Thus, if A1, A2, …, An be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and A is an event which
occurs in conjunction with one of the events Ai, then
n
P (A) =  P (A ) . P (A/A )
i =1
i i

13. Bayes Theorem

If an event A is known to occur together with one of the events A1, A2, ….,An forming a
mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events (i.e. A1, A2, …,An from a
partition of the sample space), then P (Ak/A)
P (A k ) . P (A/A k )
=
 A   A   A 
P (A1 ) . P   + P (A 2 ) . P   + ... + P (A n ) . P  
 A1   A2   An 
Bayes’s theorem can be used only when it is known that an event A has occurred and we
have to find the probability of occurrence of another event Ak, such that events A1, A2, …, Ak,
…, An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive i.e. they are mutually exclusive and cover all
possible cases of an experiment and A is known to occur in conjunction with one of Ai.

14. Binomial probability: (Bernouli’s Theorem):

Let p = Probability of occurrence of an event E
q = 1 – p = Probability of non–occurrence of the event E
n = Number of trials
X = Number of times event E occurs in n trials.
Then the probability of occurrence of event E exactly r times in n trials is denotes by P (X = r)
or P (r) and is given by P (X = r) or P (r) = n C r p r q n – r
 Note :
Trial : If an experiment is repeated n times under similar conditions, then we say that n trials
of the experiment have been made.

15. Probability Distribution:

The probability distribution of a random variable X tells us how the total probability 1 is
distributed over several values of the random variable.
Example : Let X denote the number of heads in three tosses of a coin, then
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Clearly X may be 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 P (X = 0)
1
= Probability of occurrence of zero head =
8
3 3 1
P (X = 1) = , P (X = 2) = . P (X = 3) =
8 8 8
Thus, the probability distribution of X is:
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1 3 3 1
8 8 8 8

16. Binomial Distribution:

The table given below gives the probability distribution of the random variable X for Binomial
distribution.

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X=r 0 1 … r … N
P(X = r) n 0 n n 1 n −1 … n r n −r … n n 0
C0p q C1p q Cr p q Cn p q

Clearly P (X = r) corresponds to the successive terms of the Binomial expansion (q + p)n

The mean of this Binomial Distribution = np and variance = npq
Mode [i.e. value of r for which P (X = r) is maximum] is the positive integral value of r satisfying
(n + 1)p – 1  r  (n + 1) p
r
17. The probability of at most r successes is given by P (X  r) =  n C x p x q n–x
x =0

and the probability of at least r successes is given by

n r −1
P (X  r) = 
x =r
n
C x p x q n – x = 1 –  n C x p x q n–x = 1 – P (X  r)
x =0

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PROBABILITY

Practice at Your Home

1. 3 distinct integers are selected at random from 1, 2, 3,…, 20. The probability that the sum is
divisible by 5 is
49 29 11
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
285 285 285

2. A car is parked among N cars standing in a row, but not at either end. On his return, the
owner finds that exactly r of the N places are still occupied. The probability that both the
places neighbouring his car are empty is
(N − r − 1)(N − r − 2) (N − r )(N − r − 1)
(a) (b)
N (N − 1) (N − 1)(N − 2)
(N − r )(N − r − 2)
(c) (d) none of these.
N (N − 2)

3. A fair coin is tossed 12 times. The probability that two heads do not occur consecutively is
375 376 377
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
4096 4096 4096

4. There are m persons sitting in a row. Two of these are selected at random. The probability
that the two selected persons are not to-gether is
1 2 2 m(m + 1)
(a) (b) 1 − (c) 1 − (d)
m +1 m m +1 (m − 1) (m − 2)

5. A coin is tossed 30 times. For n = 1, 2,…, 20, the probability that 10 + n tosses will result in
heads given that heads appeared at least m times is equal to
30 1
C10 +n .
20 1 2n
(a) Cn . (b)
220 20
 30 1 
 
K =0
C10 +K . 
2K 
30 1
C10+n .
(c) 2n (d) none of these.
20 1
Cn . 20
2
6. A person throws two dice, one the common cube, and the other a regular tetrahedron, the
number on the lowest face being taken in the case of tetrahedron. The probability that the
sum of the numbers appearing on the dice is 6, will be
1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
2 3 6

7. If n positive integers are taken at random and multiplied together, then the probability that
the last digit of the product is 2, 4, 6 or 8 is
n
3 5n − 3n 4n − 2n
(a)   (b) (c) (d) none of these.
5 5n 5n

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PROBABILITY

8. The probability Pr’ that a

family has r children is given by
−(r −1)
P0 = P1 = a , Pr = (1 − 2a )2 (r  2). It is known that a family has two boys. Then the
probability that the family has two girls as well is
81 79 77
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
512 512 512

9. The probability that a certain beginner at golf gets a good shot if he uses the correct club is
1 1
and the probability of a good shot with an incorrect club is . In his bag there are 5
3 4
different clubs, only one of which is correct for the shot in question. If he chooses a club at
random and takes a stroke, the probability that he gets a good shot is
2 1 4 7
(a) (b) (c) (d) .
3 15 15 15

10. A bag has 13 red, 14 green and 15 black balls. The probability of getting exactly 2 blacks on
pulling out 4 balls is p1. Now the number of each colour ball is doubled and 8 balls are
pulled out. The probability of getting exactly 4 blacks is p2. Then
(a) p1  p2 (b) p1 = p2 (c) p1  p2 (d) none of these.

11. Two persons A and B have respectively n + 1 and n coins, which they toss
simultaneously. Then the probability that A will have more heads than B is
1 1 1
(a) (b)  (c)  (d) none of these.
2 2 2

3
12. A player randomly chooses one of the coin A, B. Coin A has probability of heads and
4
1
coin B has probability of heads . He tosses the coin twice. The probability that he obtains
4
heads only once is
3 5 7
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
8 8 8

13. On a chess-board if two squares are chosen, the probability that they have a side in
common is
1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
9 18 27

14. If a number of two digits is formed with the digits 2, 3, 5, 7, 9 without repetition of digits. The
probability that the number formed is 35, is
1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
10 20 30

15. In a game “odd man out” each of m ≥ 2 person tosses a coin to determine who will buy
refreshments for the entire group. The odd man out is the one with a different outcome from
the rest. The probability that there is a loser in any game is
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PROBABILITY

1 m −1 m
(a) m −1
(b) (c) (d) none of these.
2 2m −1 2m −1

16. A bag contains n white and n red balls. Pairs of balls are drawn without replacement until
the bag is empty. The probability that each pair consists of one white and one red ball is
2n 2n 1
(a) 2n (b) 2n (c) 2n
(d) none of these.
Cn Cn Cn

17. A contest consists of predicting the results (win, draw or defeat) of 10 football matches. The
probability that one entry contains at least 5 correct answers is
12585 12385 9385
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
310 310 310

18. A pack of cards is counted with face downwards. It is found that one card is missing. One
card is drawn and is found to be red. The probability that the missing card is red, is
12 18 25
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
51 51 51
19. A point is selected at random from the interior of the circle. The probability that the point is
closer to the centre than the boundary of the circle is
1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
2 3 4

20. A man firing at a distant target has 10% chance of hitting the target in one shot. The number
of times he must fire at the target to have about 50% chance of hitting the target is
(a) 10 (b) 9 (c) 7 (d) 8.

21. All the spades are taken out from a pack of cards. From these cards, cards are drawn one
by one without replacement till the ace of spade comes. The probability that the ace comes
in the 4th draw is
1 10 3
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
13 13 13

22. A, B and C are contesting the election for the post of secretary of a club which does not
allow ladies to become members. The probabilities of A, B and C winning the election are
1 2 4
, and respectively. The probability of introducing the clause of admitting lady
3 9 9
members to the club by A, B and C are 0.6, 0.7 and 0.5 respectively. The probability that
ladies will be taken as members in the club after the election is
26 28 27
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
45 45 45

23. A card is drawn from a pack. The card is replaced and the pack is reshuffled. If this is done
six times, the probability that 2 hearts, 2 diamonds and 2 black cards are drawn is
6 4
1 45  3  90
(a) 90.   (b)   (c) (d) none of these
4 2 4 210

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24. Ram’s gardener is not dependable. The probability that he will forget to water the rose bush
2
is . The rose bush is in questionable condition any how, if watered the probability of its
3
1 3
withering is , if not watered, the probability of its withering is . Ram went out of station
2 4
and upon returning, he finds that the rose bush has withered. The probability that the
gardener did not water the bush is
1 1 3
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these
2 3 4

25. Ten pairs of shoes are in a closet. Four shoes are selected at random. The probability that
there will be at least one pair among the four shoes selected is
90 99 47
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
323 323 323

26. Numbers 1, 2, 3, …., 2n, n  N are written down on 2n cards. One number is selected at
random from these cards. If the probability of drawing a number ‘i’ is proportional to ‘i’, then
the probability of drawing an odd number in one draw is
1 n +2 n
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
2n + 1 n +4 2n + 1

27. Six girls are to enter a dance with 10 boys to form a ring so that every girl is between two
boys. The probability that some specified boy remains between 2 boys is
1 7 2
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
15 15 15

28. A chess game between Kamsky and Anand is won by whoever first wins a total of 2 games.
Kamsky’s chance of winning, drawing or loosing a particular game are p, q, r. The games
are independent and p + q + r = 1. The probability that Kamsky wins that match is
p ( p + 3r ) p 2 ( p + 3r ) p 2 ( p + 3r )
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
(p + q) (p +r)
2 3
p +r

29. A sum of money is rounded off to the nearest rupee. The probability that the round off error
is at least ten paise is
79 80 81
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these.
100 100 100

30. A die is rolled three times. The probability of getting a large number than the previous
number is
3 5 7 9
(a) (b) (c) (d)
64 64 64 64

31. If two dice are thrown together, then the probability that the sum of numbers
appearing on them is 9, is
a) b) c) d)

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32. An unbiased coin is tossed to get 2 points for turning up a head and one point for the
tail. If three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously, then the probability of getting a
total of odd number of points
a) b) c) d)

33. Given ,the probability of exactly one of the event

occurs is
a) 0.4 b) 0.2 c) 0.6 d) 0.8

34. A die is thrown. If it shows a six, we draw a ball from a bag consisting 2 black balls and
6 white balls. If it does not show a six, then we toss a coin. Then, the sample space of
this experiment consists of
a) 13 points b) 18 points
c) 10 points d) None of these

35. One ticket is selected at random from 50 tickets numbered 00,01,02,….,49. Then, the
probability that the sum of the digits on the selected ticket is 8, given that the product
of these digits is zero equals
a) b) c) d)

36. In a binomial distribution the mean is 15 and variance is 10. Then parameter is
a) 28 b) 16 c) 45 d) 25

37. A random variate takes the values 0, 1, 2, 3 and its mean is 1.3. If
and ,then is equal to
a) 0.1 b) 0.2 c) 0.3 d) 0.4

38. A pair of a dice thrown, if 5. appears on at least one of the dice, then the probability
that the sum is 10 or greater, is
a) b) c) d)

39. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and 3 respectively, then the
probability of getting exactly six successes in this distribution is
a) b)

c) d)

40. A box contains 24 identical balls of which 12 are white and 12 are black. The balls are
drawn at random from the box one at a time with replacement. The probability that a
white ball is drawn for the time on the draw, is
a) b) c) d)

41. The mean and the variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and 2 respectively. Then,
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the probability of 2 successes is

a) b) c) d)

42. Events are mutually exclusive events such that and

. The set of possible values of are in the interval
a) b) c) d)
[0, 1]

43. A bag contains 7 red and 2 white balls and another bag contains 5 red and 4 white
balls. Two balls are drawn, one from each bag. The probability that both the balls are
white, is
a) 2/9 b) 2/3 c) 8/81 d) 35/81

44. The probability that in a year of the 22 century chosen at random there will be 53
Sundays, is
a) b) c) d)

45. toss a coin alternately till one of them tosses heads and wins the game, their
respective probability of winning are
a) b) c) d)

46. The probability distribution of a random variable is given as

Then, the value of is

a) b)

c) d)

47. A coin is tossed times the probability of getting head at least once is greater than 0.8.
Then the least value of such is
a) 2 b) 3 c) 4 d) 5

48. and are two events. Odds against are 2 to 1 and odds in favour of are 3 to1.
If ,then ordered pair is
a) b)
d) None of these
c)

49. A manufacture of cotter pins knows that 5% of his product is defective. He sells pins in
boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than one pin will be defective in a box. In
order to find the probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality, the
probability distribution one has to employ is
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PROBABILITY

a) Binomial b) Poisson
c) Normal d) exponential

50. Of a total of 600 bolts, 20% are too large and 10% are too small. The remainder are
considered to be suitable. If a bolt is selected at random, the probability that it will be
suitable is
a) b) c) d)

Assertion-Reason

Read the following questions and choose:

(a) If both A and R are true and the R is correct explanation of the A.
(b) If both A and R are true the R is not correct explanation of the A.
(c) If A is true, but the R is false.
(d) If A is false, but the R is true.

1. Assertion (A): If A and B are two events such that B  A, then P(B)  P (A)
Reason (R): If exactly two of the events A, B and C events are mutually independent then
the events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent.

2. Assertion (A): Mutually exclusive events may be independent events.

Reason (R): For any two sets such that A  B, then P (B –A) = P(B) – P (A).

3. Assertion (A): For any two sets A and B, P (AB)  P(A) + P (B) – 1
Reason (R): P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A B)

4. Assertion (A): Ten fair coins fall to the floor, the probability that there are five heads and five
63
tails is .
256
Reason (R): Four fair dice are thrown, the probability that the four numbers turning will be all
5
different is .
18

5. Assertion (A): The probability that a randomly selected permutation of 1, 2, 3,….., n has the
1
“2” somewhere between “1” and “3” is .
3
Reason (R): If 12 boys are separated at random into 3 teams of 4 each, the probability that 2
particular boys will be in different teams is
6. ( 10 C3 7C3 )
( C4 ) . ( 8 C4 )
12
.

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PROBABILITY

Answer key

Q. ANS. Q. ANS. Q. ANS Q. ANS Q. ANS

1 b 11 a 21 a 31 b 41 d
2 b 12 a 22 a 32 a 42 a
3 c 13 b 23 c 33 a 43 c
4 b 14 b 24 c 34 b 44 d
5 b 15 c 25 b 35 a 45 c
6 c 16 b 26 c 36 c 46 a
7 c 17 a 27 c 37 d 47 b
8 a 18 c 28 b 38 d 48 a
9 c 19 c 29 c 39 b 49 b
10 c 20 c 30 b 40 c 50 b

SOLUTION
20
1. The no. of ways of choosing 3 distinct integers from 1, 2, 3,...,20 is C3
20.19.18
= = 20  57 = 1140
1.2.3
Now arrange the given numbers as below.

1 6 11 16
2 7 12 17
3 8 13 18
4 9 14 19
5 10 15 20
The sum of three digits is divisible by 5 in the following cases:
Two nos. from first row and one number from 3rd row or one number from 1st row and two
nos. from 4th row or three nos. from 5th row or one number from each (1st row, 4th row, 5th
row)
Then the no. of favourable ways is
= 4 C2  4 C1 + 4 C1  4 C2 + 4 C3 + 4 C1  4 C1  4 C1
= 24 + 24 + 4 + 64 = 116
116 29
Hence reqd. prob. = = .
1140 285

2. Fixing r cars in N places, there are (r – 1) cars other than his own in
N – 1 places.
N−1 (N − 1) !
 total no. of ways = Cr −1 =
(r − 1) ! (N − r ) !
Now the (r – 1) cars must be parked in N – 3 places
[neighbouring places are empty ]
N −3 (N − 3) !
 no. of favourable ways = Cr −1 =
(r − 1) ! (N − r − 2) !

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PROBABILITY

Favourable ways
 reqd. prob. =
Total ways
(N − 3) ! (N − 1) ! (N − r ) (N − r − 1)
= − =
(r − 1) ! (N − r − 2) ! (r − 1) ! (N − r ) ! (N − 1) (N − 2)

3. Total no. of outcomes

= 2  2  2 …. 12 times = 4096
Let αn denotes the no. of out comes in which two consecutive heads did not occur when the
fair coin is tossed n times.
 a1 = 2,a2 = 3
For n  3, if the last outcome is T, then we cannot have two consecutive heads in the first
(n-1) tosses. This can happen in an −1 ways. If the last outcome is H, we must have T at the
(n – 1)th toss and we cannot have two consecutive heads in the first (n-2) tosses.
This can happen in an −2 ways.
 an = an −1 + an −2 for n  3
 a10 = 144,a11 = 233
 a12 = 144 + 233 = 377
377
Hence reqd. prob. =
4096
[a3 = 5; a4 = 8; a5 = 13; a6 = 21; a7 = 34; a8 = 55; a9 = 89; a10 = 144; a11 = 233;]

m (m − 1)
4. Total no. of ways of selecting two persons out of m = mC2 =
2
The no. of ways in which the two selected persons are together = (m-1)
 no. of ways in which two selected persons are not to-gether
m (m − 1) (m − 1) (m − 2)
= − (m − 1) =
2 2
(m − 1)(m − 2)
2 m −2 2
 reqd . prob. = = =1−
m(m − 1) m m
2
30
C10 +n (1/2)n
5. Reqd. prob. 20


K =0
30
C10 +K (1/2)K

[ the probability that 10 + n head occur = 30 C10+n (1/ 2)n ]

6. Let S be the sample space. Then S = {1,2,3,4}  {1,2,3,4,5,6}
 n(S) = 24
If E be the event that the sum of the nos. on dice is 6, then n (E) = co-eff. of x6 in
( x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 )  (x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 + x 6 ) = 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4
n (E) 4 1
 reqd . prob. = = =
n (S) 24 6
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PROBABILITY

7. The last digit of the product will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 or 9 iff each of the n positive integer
ends in any of these digits. Now the probability of an integer ending in 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 or 9
8 4
is =
10 5
n
4
 the prob. that the last digit of the product of n integers is 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 or 9 =   .
5
Next, the last digit of the product will be 1, 3, 7 or 9 iff each of the n + ve integers ends in 1,
4 2
3, 7 or 9 is =
10 5
n
2
 the prob. for the product of n + ve integer to end in 1, 3, 7 or 9 is  
5
n n
4  2 4n − 2n
Hence the prob. of the reqd. event =   −   =
5 5 5n

8. Let A2 denote 2 boys, let B2 denote 2 girls and let Cn denote n children in the family.
P (A2 B2 )
Then P (B2 / A2 ) =
P (A2 )



n =4
P (Cn ) P (A 2 B2 / Cn )
= 


n =2
P (Cn ) P (A 2 / Cn )
n −1
1
Now P (Cn ) = (1 − 2a )   ,n = 2,3....
2
2
1
and P (A 2/Cn ) = C2  
n

2

 P (A 2 ) = 
n =2
P (Cn ) P (A 2/Cn )

 2n − 1
1
= (1 − 2a )  n
C2  
n =2 2
n −2
1 − 2a  1
= .  n (n − 1)  
42 n = 2 4
1 − 2a 2 8
= 2
. 3
= (1 − 2a )
4  1 27
1 − 
 4
Further P (A2 B2)

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PROBABILITY


=  P (C
n =4
n ) P (A 2 B2 /Cn ) = P (Cn ) P (A 2 B2 /Cn )

3 4
1 1 6(1 − 2a ) 3(1 − 2a )
= (1 − 2a )   . 4 C2   = =
2 2 128 64
3(1 − 2a )
64 81
Finally P (B2 / A 2 ) = =
8(1 − 2a ) 512
27

9. Reqd. prob. = (prob. of correct club and good shot) (prob. of incorrect club and good shot)
1 1 4 1 1 1 4
=  +  = + =
5 3 5 4 15 5 15
15
C2  27 C2 27
10. We have p1 = 42
=
C4 82
30
C4  54 C4 17.29.45.53
p2 = 84
=
C8 11.79.82.83
after simplification
p1 27 11  79  82  83
= 
p2 82 17  29  45  53
33  79  83 216381
= = 1
29  53  85 130645
 p1  p2.

11. Let the number of heads and tails thrown by A be α and α’ respectively and the number of
heads and tails thrown by B be b and b’ respectively. Then a + a ' = n + 1 and
b +b' = n
The reqd. prob. P is the prob. Of the inequality a > b.
The prob. 1 – P of the opposite event a  b is at the same time, the prob. of the inequality
a '  b ' i.e. 1 − P is the prob. that A will throw more tails than B. For
a b  n +1− a '  n − b '
 1 − a '  −b '  a '  b '+ 1
 a'  b'
But the two events that A will throw more heads than B and A will throw more tails than B are
equally likely.
1
 P = 1 − P or 2P = 1 or P =
2

12. Let A be the event that coin A is selected and let B be the event that coin B is selected. Let
H be the event that head appears once.
Then
P (H) = P (A). P (H/A) + P (B). P (H/B)

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PROBABILITY

1 3 1 1 3 3
= 2   + 2   =
2  4 4 4 4  8

13. Let S be the sample space and E be the event that the two squares selected at random on a
chess board have a side in common.
 n (S) = total no. of selections of 2 squares out of 64 squares on a chess board
64  63
= 64
C2 = = 32  63.
2
n (E) = no. of ways of selecting two consecutive squares from rows or columns = (7 + 7 +
…to 8 terms) + (7 + 7 + …to 8 terms)
= 56 + 56 = 112
112 1
 reqd. prob. = =
32  63 18

14. Let S = The sample space

 n (S) = total no. of nos. of two digits formed with the digits 2, 3, 5, 7, 9 without repetition =
5
P2 = 5  4 = 20
Let E = the event that the number formed is 35
 n (E) = 1
1
 reqd. prob. =
20

15. Let A denote the event that there is an odd man out in a game. The total number of possible
m
cases = 2
A person is odd man out if he is alone in getting a head or a tail. The number of ways in
which there is exactly one tail (head) and the rest are heads (tails) is C1 = m. Thus the
m

number of favourable ways is

m + m = 2m.
2m m
 P (A) = m
= m −1
2 2

16. Let S be the sample space of selecting n pairs of balls from a bag containing n white and n
red balls and E be the event that each of the n pairs of balls drawn consists of one white and
one red balls.
 n (S) = 2n
C2 . 2n −2 C2 . 2n −4 C2 .... 4 C2. 2 C2
(2n ) ! (2n − 2) ! (2n − 4) ! 4! 2! 2n !
= . .... . = n
(2n − 2) ! 2 ! (2n − 4) ! 2 ! (2n − 6) ! 2 ! 2 !2 ! 2 !0 ! 2
n (E) = ( n C1 . n C1 )( n −1C1 . n −1C1 )....( 2 C1 . 2 C1 )( 1C1 . 1C1 )
= n 2 (n − 1)2 ....22 . 11 = (n !)2
n (E) (n !)2 2n
 reqd . prob. = = = 2n
n (S) (2n ) ! Cn
n
2
10
17. The total no. of ways of predicting the result is 3 . The no. of ways in which exactly K
results are correct is
10
CK . 210−K
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PROBABILITY

 the no. of favourable ways is

C5 . 25 + 10 C6 . 24 + 10 C7 . 23 + 10 C8 . 22 + 10 C9 . 2 + 10 C10 = 12585.
10

12585
Hence reqd . prob. =
310

18. Let A be the event of drawing a red card when one card is drawn out of 51 cards (excluding
missing card). Let A1 be the event that the missing card is red and A2 be the event that the
missing card is black.
By Baye’s Thm., Reqd. prob. is
P (A1 ).P (A / A1 )
P (A1 / A) =
P (A1 )P (A / A1 ) + P (A 2 ).P (A / A 2 )
In a pack of 52 cards, 26 are red and 26 are black. Now
P (A1) = prob. that the missing card is red
26
C1 26 1
= 52
= =
C1 52 2
P (A2) = prob. that the missing card is black
26 1
= =
52 2
P (A/A1) = prob. of drawing a red card when the missing card is red.
25
=
51
[ total no. of cards left is 51 out of which 25 are red and 26 are black as
the missing card in red]
26
Again P (A/A2) = prob. of drawing a red card when the missing card is black =
51
1 25
.
2 51 25
 reqd. prob. P (A1 / A) = =
1 25 1 26 51
. + .
2 51 2 51

19. n (S) = the area of the circle of radius r

r
n (E) = the area of circle of radius .
2
2
r 
 
n (E) 2 1
 reqd. prob. = =  2 =
n (S) r 4

10 1
20. The prob. of hitting in one shot = = If he fires n shots, the prob. of hitting at least
100 10
once

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PROBABILITY

n n
 1   9  1
= 1 − 1 −  = 1 −   = (given)
 10   10  2
n
 9  1
   =
 10  2
 n [ 2 log10 3 − 1 ] = − log10 2
log10 2 0.3010
n = = = 6 . 5 nearly.
1 − 2 log10 3 1 − 2 (0.4771)

21. The prob. of not drawing the ace in the first draw, in the second draw and in the third draw
12 11 10
are , and resp.
13 12 11
1
The prob. of drawing ace of spades in the fourth draw =
10
12 11 10 1 1
 the reqd. prob. = . . . = .
13 12 11 10 13

22. Let EA = the event of A becoming secretary.

Similarly EB = the event of admitting lady members.
1 2 4
 P (E A ) = , P ( E B ) = , P ( EC ) =
3 9 9
Clearly EA, EB, EC are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
Also P (E1/EA) = 0.6
P (E1/EB) = 0.7, P(E1/EC) = 0.5
the reqd. prob.
= P(EA)P.(E1/EA) + P(EB)P.(E1/EB)+P(E).P(E1/EC)
1 3 2 7 4 1
= . + . + .
3 5 9 10 9 2
1 7 2 9 + 7 + 10 26
= + + = =
5 45 9 45 45

13 1
23. The prob. of getting a heart in one draw = =
52 4
1
Similarly for a diamond, the probability =
4
26 1
The prob. of getting a black card in one draw = =
52 2
 the reqd. prob.
2 2 2
1 1 1
= C2  C2         
6 4

 4  4  2
1 90
= 15  6  10 = 10
2 2
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PROBABILITY

[ in 6 draws, 2 draws will be for hearts, 2 for diamonds and 2 for black cards and this
selection can be done in C 2  C 2  C 2 ways]
6 4 2

24. Let A = the event that the rose bush has withered
Let A1 = the event that the gardener did not water
A2 = the event that the gardener watered.
By Baye’s Thm.
P (A1 ).P (A / A1 )
P(A1/A) = ....(1)
P (A1 ).P (A / A1 ) + P (A 2 ).P (A / A 2 )
2
Given P (A1 ) =
3
1
 P (A 2 ) =
3
3 1
P (A / A1 ) = , P (A / A 2 ) =
4 2
2 3
.
3 4 6 3
 from (1) P (A1 (A) = = =
2 3 1 1 6+2 4
. + .
2 4 3 2

25. If E be he event that no pair is selected, then

20 18 16 14 224
P (E) = . . . =
20 19 18 17 323
224 99
 reqd. prob. = 1 − P(E) = 1 − = .
323 323
Pi  i  Pi = Ki , where K is a constant
Since P1 + P2 + P3 + .... + P2n = 1
 K + 2K + 3K + ..... + 2nK = 1
2n (2n + 1)
 K. =1
2
1
 K=
n (2n + 1)
 the reqd. prob.
P1 + P3 + P5 + ..... + P2n −1
= K + 3K + 5 K + ....... + (2n − 1) K
n
= [K + (2n − 1)K] = n 2 K
2
1 n
= n 2. =
n (2n + 1) 2n + 1

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PROBABILITY

27. The ten boys define ten successive intervals. The six girls can choose six of the intervals in
10
C 6 way
8 8
C6 C
The reqd. prob. = 10 = 10 2
C6 C4
8.7
1.2 8.7.3.4 2
= = =
10.9.8.7 10.9.8.7 15
1.2.3.4

28. (i) Kamsky wins one of the first n games and draws the
remaining
(n – 1) or
(ii) Kamsky wins exactly one of the first n games and draws the remaining (n – 2)
n −1
Now P(i ) = P1pd
n

P(ii ) = n P2pd n − 2r
The probability that Kamsky wins this match is


p
n =1
2
[nq n −1 + n (n − 1)rq n −2 ]
 
=p 2
 nq
n =1
n −1
+ p r  n (n − 1) q n − 2
2

n =1
Diff. both sides w.r.t.q, we get
 
1 2
 nq n −1 = and  n (n − 1) q n −2
=
(1 − q )
(1 − q )
2 3
n =1 n =1

Hence, the prob. that Kamsky wins the match

p2 2 p 2r p 2 ( p + 3r )
= + = [ p + q + r = 1 1 − q = p + r ]
(1 − q ) (1 − q )3 ( p + r )−3
2

29. The sample space is {- 0.50, - 0.49, - 0.48, … - 0.01, 0.10, 0.01 ….}
Let A be the event that the round off error is at least 10 paise, then A’ is the event that the
round off error is at most a paise.
 A’ is given by {- 0.09, - 0.08, - 0.07, ….- 0.01, 0.00, 0.01….0.09}
19
P (A ') =
100
19 81
 1 − P (A) =  P (A) =
100 100

30. Let S be the sample space and E be the event of getting a large number than the previous
number, n (S) = 6  6  6 = 216
Now we count the number of favourable ways.
Clearly, the second number has to be greater than 1. If the second number is i (i > 1), then
the number of favourable ways = (i − 1)  (6 − i )
 n (E) = Total no. of favourable ways

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PROBABILITY

6
=  (i − 1)(6 − i )
i =1

= 0 + 1 4 + 2  3 + 3  2 + 4 1 + 5  0
= 4 + 6 + 6 + 4 = 20
n (E) 20 5
 the reqd . prob. = = = .
n (S) 216 64
31. (a)
Total number of cases
Let Event of getting sum is 9

Required probability

32. (a)
We are getting a odd number of points, if it will comes (two heads, one tail and three
tails)

Required probability=Probability of getting two heads and one tail + Probability of

all three tails

33. (a)
Given,
Probability of exactly one of the event occurs is

34. (b)
If the show a six, then number of outcomes =8
If die not show a six. Then number of outcomes=2

35. (a)

Let be the event that sum of the digits on the selected ticket is 8, then
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PROBABILITY

Let be the event that the product of the digits is zero

{00, 01, 02, 03,….,09, 10, 20, 30, 40}

Required probability=

36. (c)
Given mean,
and variance

37 (d)
Given, mean

Since,
Also,

38. (d)
Favourable cases of getting 10 or greater than 10, if 5 appears on atleast one of dice.

Number of favourable cases =3

Total number of cases = 36
Required probability
39. (b)
In binomial distribution, variance and
mean .
From the given condition

Probability of exactly six success

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PROBABILITY

40 (c)
Probability of getting a white ball at any draw is,
.
The probability of getting a white ball in the 7 draw
(getting 3 white balls in 6 draws) (white ball at the 7 draw)

41. (d)
Given,

Also,
Probability of 2 successes,

42. (a)
Since,
and

...(i)
...(ii)
...(iii)
and
...(iv)
From Eqs. (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv), we get

43. (c)
Required probability

44. (d)
We know a leap year is fallen within 4 yr, so its probability
In a century the probability of Sunday in a leap year
Non-leap year in century = 75
Probability of selecting is non-leap year
Sunday in non-leap year
Similarly, in a century probabilities of Sunday in a non-leap year

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PROBABILITY

Required probability

45. (c)
toss a coin alternately till one of them tosses heads and win the game, their
respectively probabilities of winning are and respectively.
46. (a)
Sum of Probabilities=1

47. (b)
The probability of getting head at least once
in times
(None of the trial getting head)

Given

Hence, least value of n is 3

48. (a)
Given and are two events odds against
are 2 to 1, odds in favour of are 3 to 1
also
Given

Again,

But
49. (b)
Required probability distribution is poisson
distribution.
50. (b)
Given total number of bolts=600
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PROBABILITY

Numbers of large bolts=20% of 600

Number of small bolts=10% of 600

Number of suitable bolts

Probability of selecting suitable bolt

Assertion – Reason

1. (c)

2. (d)

3. (a)

4. (b)

5. (b)

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