4/18/24, 11:25 AM Practical 1

MGV's Loknete Vyankatrao Hiray Arts, Science

and Commerce College Nashik

Department of Mathematics

M. Sc. 1 Data Science

Practical 1. Probability Theory

Probability

1. Example. Data will be generated by flipping a coin 10 times and

counting how many times we get heads.

In [1]: import random

def coin_trial():
heads = 0 # Declare heads inside the function
for i in range(10):
if random.random() <= 0.5:
heads += 1
return heads
def simulate(n):
trials = []
for i in range(n):
trials.append(coin_trial())
return(sum(trials)/n)
simulate(10)

Out[1]: 5.7

In [2]: simulate(100)

Out[2]: 4.83

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2. Example of choosing one number out of a set of

numbers. We can find different probabilities for this
particular problem; for instance:

selecting an even number

selecting a number divisible by 3 and 5

selecting a prime number

In [3]: set_of_numbers=[]
n=int(input("enter the number of elements: "))
print("enter the elements: ")
for i in range(0,n):
j=int(input())
set_of_numbers.append(j)
#print the set of numbers
print(" the set of numbers are: ",set_of_numbers)

enter the number of elements: 4

enter the elements:
1
2
3
4
the set of numbers are: [1, 2, 3, 4]

In [4]: def probability_of_even(a):

c=0
# here the set of numbers is the list a
total=len(a)
for i in a:
#checks whether the number is even or not
if(i%2==0):
c+=1;
#returns the probability of total even numbers/total outcomes
return(c/total)

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In [5]: def probability_of_prime(a):

c=0
# here the set of numbers is the list a
total=len(a)
for i in a:
#funciton to see if its a prime or not
if(i>1):
c2=0
for j in range(2,i):
if(i%j==0):
c2+=1
if(c2==0):
c+=1
#probability value:
return(c/total)

In [6]: def probability_divisible(a):

c=0
#here the set of numbers is list a
total=len(a)
for i in a:
#check divisibility
if(i %3==0 and i%5==0):
c+=1
# probability value:
return(c/total)

In [7]: set_of_numbers = [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,12,13,15]

In [8]: probability_of_even(set_of_numbers)

Out[8]: 0.45454545454545453

In [9]: probability_of_prime(set_of_numbers)

Out[9]: 0.45454545454545453

In [10]: probability_divisible(set_of_numbers)

Out[10]: 0.09090909090909091

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Conditional Probability

1. Example Suppose you have a fair six-sided die, and

you want to find out the probability on rolling a
number greater than 4, given that you rolled an odd
number.
In [11]: # define the sample space
sample_space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
# define the event A (roll a number greater than 4)
event_A = {5, 6}
# define the event B (roll an odd number)
event_B = {1, 3, 5}

In [12]: # calculate P(A)

prob_A = len(event_A) / len(sample_space)
# calculate P(B)
prob_B = len(event_B) / len(sample_space)

In [13]: # calculate P(A ∩ B)

event_A_intersect_B = event_A.intersection(event_B)
prob_A_intersect_B = len(event_A_intersect_B) / len(sample_space)

In [14]: # calculate P(A|B)

prob_A_given_B = prob_A_intersect_B / prob_B
print(prob_A_given_B)

0.3333333333333333

2. Example : In a family with two children, what is the

probability that , if at least one of the children is a girl,
both children are girls?
In [3]: import random
sample_size = 5
num_families_at_least_one_girl = 0
num_families_two_girls = 0

In [4]: for i in range(sample_size):

first_child = random.choice(["boy", "girl"])
second_child = random.choice(["boy", "girl"])
if first_child == "girl" or second_child == "girl":
num_families_at_least_one_girl += 1
if first_child == "girl" and second_child == "girl":
num_families_two_girls += 1
result = round(num_families_two_girls / num_families_at_least_one_girl, 2)

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In [5]: print(f"Out of {sample_size} families sampled,\

{num_families_at_least_one_girl}have at least one girl.")
print(f"Of these {num_families_two_girls} have two girls.")
print(f"This gives an experimental probability of {result} to two decimal\
places that,")
print("gives at least one child is a girl, both children are girls.")

Out of 5 families sampled,3have at least one girl.

Of these 1 have two girls.
This gives an experimental probability of 0.33 to two decimalplaces that,
gives at least one child is a girl, both children are girls.

3. Example: Suppose we send out a survey to 300

individuals asking them which sport they like best:
baseball, basketball, football, or soccer.
In [7]: import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

In [8]: df = pd.DataFrame({'gender': np.repeat(np.array(['Male', 'Female']), 150),

'sport': np.repeat(np.array(['Baseball', 'Basketball', 'Football',
'Soccer', 'Baseball', 'Basketball',
'Football', 'Soccer']),
(34, 40, 58, 18, 34, 52, 20, 44))})

In [9]: #produce contingency table to summarize raw data

survey_data = pd.crosstab(index=df['gender'], columns=df['sport'], \
margins=True)

In [10]: #view contingency table

survey_data

Out[10]:
sport Baseball Basketball Football Soccer All

gender

Female 34 52 20 44 150

Male 34 40 58 18 150

All 68 92 78 62 300

In [11]: #extract value in second row and first column

survey_data.iloc[1, 0]

Out[11]: 34

In [12]: #calculate probability of being male, given that individual prefers baseball
survey_data.iloc[1, 0] / survey_data.iloc[2, 0]

Out[12]: 0.5

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In [13]: #calculate probability of preferring basketball, given that individual isfema

survey_data.iloc[2,1] / survey_data.iloc[0, 4]

Out[13]: 0.6133333333333333

In [ ]: ​

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