Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Terrorism in Balochistan: issues, Causes, Consequences and Cures.

Nadeem Uz Zaman1, Safia Bano2, Muhammad Shafiq 3
Abstract
Balochistan is one of the provinces of Pakistan which is most affected by
post 9/11 terrorism. Data were collected from 880 respondents of the
province through part convenience, part purposive sampling since the
population is relatively large and no sampling frame was available. A 26-
item, self-administered questionnaire was developed on 7-point Likert scale
of agreement having four sections: nature, causes, social effects and
economic effects. The result of study suggests that terrorism has drastically
affected the socio-economic fabric of the society in family, communal,
business and political spheres. The major cures could include improved
incentives for business activity, government spending on education, health
care and development of infrastructure. Bringing all political forces on
board can help improve the situation in the province.

Keywords: Balochistan, Nature of terrorism, socio-economic consequences

of terrorism

Introduction

The world has suffered drastically after 9/11. There is not a single part of
the world which has not been affected by the acts of terrorism. However,
there are some countries where the impact of the event has been greater than
the others. Pakistan is one of those countries where the effects of terrorism

1
Assistant Professor, Department of Management Sciences, Balochistan University of IT,
Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS), Quetta
2
Assistant Professor, Institute of Management Sciences, University of Balochistan (UOB),
Quetta.
3
Lecturer, commerce department, University of Balochistan (UOB), Quetta.

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

has in fact shown its real influence. Given that is engulfed by problems such
as poverty, corruption, bad governance, religious vendettas, illiteracy, low
level of infrastructure and so on; the impact of terrorism becomes manifold.

Though the country, at large, has faced the effects of terrorism, there are
some parts of the country that have felt those effects far more than the others.
Balochistan is one of those areas where terrorism has hit the hardest not only
in terms of the death toll and the destruction of infrastructure but also in
terms of the composition of elements that result in terrorism: religion, ethno-
lingual differences, internal and international politics and so on. Further, the
geo-political position of the province is of even greater importance as the
province shares its border with two countries, Afghanistan and Iran, any
activity taking place in Afghanistan in turn, affects Balochistan also. An
example of this is the in huge investment of China in the Pak-China
Economic Corridor. Therefore, a study that offers insights and gives lessons
relating to the factors causing terrorism is of immense significance.

Terrorism in Balochistan

The actual roots of terrorism were planted in Pakistan in the late 70s right
after the USSR invasion of Afghanistan4. The USA funded the Mujahedeen
generously in terms of training and weapons, the weapon then found their
way into Pakistan through the long porous border5.

Some call it the economic front of Pakistan, Balochistan, is a vast piece of

land with rich natural resources, oil, and a long coastal line. Geographically,
Balochistan is a very important place; it has immediate borders with two

4
Husain, A. (2003). Terrorism, development and democracy. India. Shapira Publications.
5
Kronstadt, K.,A. (2007). Pakistan and Terrorism. Congressional Research Service. The
Library of Congress.

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

countries. Not only this, the borders with those two countries are not only
long but also extremely difficult to manage or control. The province also
has huge agricultural land where people cultivate many cash crops67 Despite
this richness, the province has not been fruitful for the people who are in it.
Majority of the population is extremely poor and the major sources of
earnings are animal herding and Agriculture. Consequently, there are often
acts of terrorism including target killing, bomb blasts, destruction of
government installations, kidnapping and other crimes.

Despite having an academic orientation, it has been difficult to

conceptualize the exact meaning of terrorism8.The definitions of terrorism
differs from its use in academic, economic, political and military senses9,10.
There is no universal definition of Terrorism, its meaning changes from
context to context.11. Hence, the actual meaning of terrorism changes from
political situations to geographical locations12. Therefore, terrorism is native
to the context in which is taking place. As a consequence, studies about
terrorism in different places may not truly represent the actual scenario in

6
Zaman, N. U. & Marri, S. K., (Aug 2011). Determinants of increased real prices of the
livestock in Balochistan.MPRA Paper No. 321608. [online] Available at <
http://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/32608/1/MPRA_paper_32608.pdf>
7
Sabri, R., (May 04, 2009). Balochistan: AF-Pak’s Forgotten Frontiers. [online] Available
at < http://www.sais-jhu.edu/academics/regional-
studies/southasia/pdf/Rabeah%20Sabri%20Balochistan.pdf> [accessed March 03, 2012]
8
Schimid, A.P. and Jongman, A.J. (2005). Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors,
Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, and Literature. New Jersey: Transaction
Publishers.
9
Jackson, R. & Sinclair, S.J. (2012). Contemporary Debating on Terrorism. New York:
Routledge Chapman & Hall.
10
Maleckova, J. (2005). Improvished Terrorists: Stereotype or Reality? In Bjorgo T (ed).
Root Causes of Terrorism: Myths, Reality and Ways Forward. London: Routledge, Taylor
& Francis Group, 32-43.
11
Weinberg, L., Pedahzur, A., & Hirsch-Hoefler, S., (2004). The Challenges of
Conceptualizing Terrorism. Terrorism and Political Violence 16(4): 777-794.
12
Moten, A.R. (2010). Understanding Terrorism: Contested Concept, Conflicting
Perspectives and Shattering Consequences. Intellectual Discourse 18(1): 35-63.

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Balochistan. This gives rise to an overemphasized need for studying the

nature, root causes and the consequences of terrorism in Balochistan.

As far as conceptualizing terrorism is considered, a vast array of different

ways can be used to conceptualize the nature of terrorism including the
study of terrorism from the perspective of cultural anthropology and is
understood as a human nature13. On the other hand, terrorism can be
understood as a display of political power that create its equilibrium in the
fabric of social life. Furthermore, there are studies that have conceptualized
terrorism as an outcome of the surrounding context14 Notwithstanding, the
nature of terrorism would be defined differently under different fields of
studies.

As discussed earlier, it is very difficult to give a one-fit-for-all meaning to

terrorism; there are, however, some of the ways in which the nature of
terrorism can be classified. In line with this distinction, we have attempted
to get the perceptions and opinion of the people living it to form the social
construct of terrorism in Balochistan in this study.

On the other hand, as a legal construct the idea of terrorism may differ across
ideologies of the states15. Though, the same person may be labelled as a
terrorist or a freedom fighter from different political perspectives16. This,
nevertheless, is not the major objective of the study because it is extremely
difficult to personify someone into different frames meaningfully at the

13
Hulsse R & Spencer, A., (2008). The Metaphor of Terror: Terrorism Studies and the
Constructivist Turn. Security Dialogue, 39(6), 571, 573
14
ibid
15
Greene, A., (2017) Defining Terrorism: One size fit all. ICLQ 66, 411–440]
16
Friedrichs, J., (2006). Defining the International Public Enemy: The Political Struggle
behind the Legal Debate on International Terrorism. LJIL 69(76).

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

same time. Therefore, the main focus of the study would remain on defining
and explaining the nature of terrorism in Balochistan as a social construct.

The literature indicates that the nature of terrorism in peculiar to the context
in which it is taking place. No single definition of explanation can be found
for the nature of terrorism in different context. As we discussed that the geo-
political situation of Balochistan is a highly typical or exceptional one, we
expect that a peculiar nature of terrorism could be highlighted from the
responses and described accordingly. We, therefore, hypothesize:

Hypothesis 1: A nature of terrorism can be highlighted as peculiar to the

province.

Causes of Terrorism

There is a multitude of causes that can be attributed to terrorism. Studies

such as Crenshaw17, Aziz18 and Ali19 (have pointed out some of those factors
that have resulted in terrorism in Pakistan. Some of those include illiteracy,
lack of employment, poverty, weak governance, fast growing population,
poor health facilities, costly access to justice, easy access to weapons, lack
of access to social services and the scarcity of public goods. In addition to
these, Political unrest in the country and the deterioration of socio-economic
elements are also some of the causes of terrorism in Pakistan20 21 22

17
Crenshaw, M. (1981). The Causes of Terrorism. Comparative Politics, 13(4), 379-399
18
Aziz, H. (1995). Understanding attacks on tourists in Egypt. Tourism Management, Vol.
16, No. 2, pp. 91-95.
19
Ali, A. (2010). Militancy and socioeconomic problems. Islamabad, institute of strategic
studies.
20
Berman, E. & Laitin, D., (2005). Hard targets: theory and evidence on suicide attacks.
NBER Working Paper 11740. Cambridge, MA: NBER
21
Shor, E. (2008). Conflict terrorism and the socialization of human rights norms; the
spiral model revisited. New York. State University of New York at Stony Brook.
22
Syed, S.H., Saeed, L., & Martin, R.P., (2015). Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in
Pakistan. Journal of Applied Security Research, 10,181–206.

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Lack of economic activities has also been pointed out as an important source
of terrorism in any geographical location. For instance, Blomberg, Hess and
Weer Apana have suggested that the lack of economic activity might result
in violence and terrorism23. The case seems to be true in Balochistan also.
Majority of the youth are unemployed, poor and illiterate who may look for
the escape in the form of violence and terrorism. The problem gets
exaggerated due to the fact that the government of Balochistan has no
concrete policies that can improve the economic conditions of the
province24. Furthermore, there are vested interest of foreign hands in the
province of Balochistan also mostly with negative intentions. One of the
major enemies is India which would always be happy to disturb peace in
Pakistan and promote acts that could challenge sovereignty of the country.
In all, the major reason for terrorism in Balochistan may be traced to
underdevelopment, poverty and low literacy in the province25 26 27

Hypothesis 2: Lack of economic activity, education and sound policies are

major causes of terrorism in Balochistan.

Impact of Terrorism on Socio-economic Conditions

Terrorism has far reaching Impact on the overall fabric of the society and
deteriorates every aspect of life. It effects economic conditions of a place by
affecting the consumption patterns, investment spirit, employment levels,

23
Bird, G., Blomberg, B., & Hess, G.D., (2008). International Terrorism: Causes,
Consequences and Cures. The World Economy (2008), 255-274
24
Lapan, H.E. & Sandler, T., (1993). Terrorism and signalling. European Journal of
Political Economy, 9, 383-397.
25
Krueger, A.B. & Maleckova, J., (2003). Education, Poverty, and Terrorism: Is There a
Causal Connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4), 119–144.
26
Krueger, A. B., (2007). What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism?
Princeton: Princeton University Press
27
Berrebi, C., (2003). Evidence about the link between education, poverty and terrorism
among Palestinians. Princeton University Industrial Relations Section Working Paper #477

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

inflation and overall economic wellbeing28.Negative correlation has been

found between investment and terrorism.29 30
Terrorism has also been
associated with reduced government spending, lower foreign domestic
31
investments and crowding-out effects in the policy making efforts. .
Furthermore, there are the studies that have also found the effect of terrorism
on productivity, infrastructure and economic growth32

In addition to the economic deterioration of a country caused by terrorism,

there are certain indirect effects of terrorism on the economy also. Among
those effects, studies have included devaluation of currency, loss of time
and efficiency, situations of law and order, stock market crashes and other
deadweight economic losses. Besides, due to terrorism countries are forced
to allocate their valuable economic resources to uses which are not very
productive; in fact, much valuable resources are lost in fighting against
terrorism

The GDP of a country is the worst affected element that faces the toil of
terrorism. In fact, a negatively significant correlation has been found
between Terrorism and GDP growth33. Different comparative studies have
noticed that during the times of terrorism, the GDP of a country falls

28
Eckstein, Z. & Tsiddon, D., (2004). Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and
the case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics 51(5):971–1002
29
Fielding, D. (2003). Modelling political instability and economic performance: Israeli
investment during the intifada. Economica, 70(277), 159-186
30
Drakos, K. & Gofas, A., (2006). In search of the average transnational terrorist attack
venue. Defence and Peace Economics 17(2), 73–93
32
Hall, R., (2005). Assessment guideline for counter terrorism, Los Angeles. University of
southern California
33
Eckstein, Z. & Tsiddon, D., (2004). Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and
the case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics 51(5):971–1002

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

sharply; whereas, in normal periods the overall economic growth tends to

rise and improve 34.

As the literature clearly shows that terrorism has a negative effect on the
economic and social life of people, we theorize:

Hypothesis: Terrorism has negatively affected the socio-economic life of

people of Balochistan.

Methodology

Participants

The study was quantitative with an exploratory design. The data collected
from 880 respondents from different ethnicities and fields of life. As the
population was extremely large and accurate sampling frame could not be
designed, the study made use of convenience sampling. However, care was
taken to try to include people from every ethnic groups residing in the
province. This made the sample really representative of the overall
population. Thus, a sense of judgment/ purposiveness was also used in the
distribution of the questionnaire.

Materials

Using the variables mentioned in the literature, a questionnaire was

developed to obtain the opinions of respondents on the nature, root-causes
and socio-economic impact of terrorism on Balochistan. The questionnaire
contained two major sections, the first included the demographic profiles of
the respondents including their age, sex, ethnicity, education level and

34
Enders, W., Sandler, T. & Parise, G. F., (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact
of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos 45(4):531–554

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

profession. The second set of items asked 26 questions on 7-point Likert

scale of agreement.

The section for obtaining data on the nature of terrorism included 5 items
and a sample item was “Terrorists intend to evoke fear among the people
through organized violence”35. The ‘causes’ section had 9 items, a sample
item was, the section of ‘social effects’ had 8 items and a sample item was,
“Terrorists make people afraid to enjoy outdoor family life in parks and
other picnic and refreshments points.” Lastly, the ‘economic effects’ section
included 4 items and a sample item was, “Terrorists have the target to
negatively affect country’s internal investment, FDI and business spirit.”

Data Cleaning and Transformation

The data cleaning started with looking for the missing values in the data.
KNN approach was used to replace the missing values in the dataset. This
approach allows to replace values keeping in view what the other responses
of the respondent were. Questionnaires with more than 50% missing values
were removed from the final analysis. Secondly, the unengaged responses
were removed by calculating the standard deviation for each case and
replacing the cases with standard deviation that were below 0.5.

Test of normality including Shapiro-Wilk and q-q plots were used to test
normality of the data. Two-steps transformation was used to transform non-
normal data. Furthermore, bootstrapping was used to improve the strengths
of the estimates. Outliers were traded using Grubb’s test for the detection of
outliers.

35
Ersun N. Kurtulus (2017) Terrorism and fear: do terrorists really want to scare? Critical
Studies on Terrorism, 10:3, 501-522, DOI: 10.1080/17539153.2017.1329080

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Analysis

The percentages obtained from the respondents were used to discuss the
results. As four aspects were theorized in the data, to explore the underlying
structure within the responses, we first ran an exploratory factor analysis
(EFA) using Varimax Rotation. This is because the factors were
theoretically uncorrelated to one another and required an orthogonal
rotation. The values for loadings were suppressed below 0.4 for a cleaner
report. Further, CFA was also run so that the convergent and discriminant
validity of the structure could also be established using the plugin for Amos
developed by James Gaskin. In order to establish the reliability of the
structure highlighted, Cronbach’s alpha was used for each factor
independently as highlighted in the EFA. SPSS 25, Amos 24 were used to
analyse the data.

Results

Descriptive statistics

The overall sample was fairly distributed among both male and female
respondents (Male=52.1% & Female= 48.8%). As far as the profession was
concerned, most of the respondents were either had the proportions of the
unemployed and students were low (WCJ= 45.6%; BCJ=50%;
Unemployed=4%; Students= 4%). Most of the respondents belonged to the
Pashtun ethnicity (54%); followed by Balochis (23.3%); Hazaras (11.4%);
Punjabis (6.8%); Muhajirs (2%) and others (2.5%). Our sample somehow
fairly represents the overall ethno-linguistic composition of the population
in the province36.

36
Balochistan Economic Report (2008). Balochistan Economic Report: From Periphery to
Core, Volume 1. World Bank Group

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Correlations among the factors

The correlation analysis shows that the four factors were not very strongly
correlated with one another. The correlation coefficients for all the factors
were less than 0.251. Table 1 gives the correlation coefficient matrix for all
the factors.

Table 1: Correlations among the Four Factors

Social Economic
Nature Causes
Effects Effects
Nature Pearson 1
-0.064 .109** .228**
Correlation
Social Pearson -0.064
1 .250** -.074*
Effects Correlation
Economic Pearson .109**
.250** 1 .154**
Effects Correlation
Causes Pearson .228**
-.074* .154** 1
Correlation
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

Factor Analysis

The exploratory factor analysis resulted in the determination of four primary

factors in the data. The results of the EFA are given as under. No items were
deleted.

The adequacy of data for factor analysis.

The KMO and Bartlett’s test of sphericity were used to test the adequacy of
the data in order to run the factor analysis. The overall results were
satisfactory3738. The test indicated that factor analysis is appropriate for this

37
Denis, D.J., (2019). SPSS Data Analysis for Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate
Statistics. USA, Wiley.
38
Field, A (2017). Discovering Statistics Using IBM SPSS Statistics. Sage

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

data and could give useful results39 The cut off value of KMO need to be
greater than 0.5 for data adequacy and that for the Bartlett’s test needs to be
significant at less than 0.05. Both these cut-offs were met and thus the data
was adequate for factor analysis. Our KMO and Bartlett’s Tests indicated
that the data are adequate to model into a factor analysis (KMO=0.881;
Bartlett’s Test: Chi-square=18003.976; df=325; sig.0.000).

Exploratory factor analysis.

The exploratory factor analysis reduced the 26-item Likert scale data into
four factors. These four factors could be divided into four categories based
on the contents of the items. The four categories include: the social effects
of terrorism in Balochistan, the root-causes of terrorism, the nature of
terrorism and the economic effects of terrorism in Balochistan. The total
variance explained by this data amounted to 68.811% of the variation within
the dataset and is thus in acceptable range for the EFA, also all
communalities exceed .5 except for item N2: the overall solution is
acceptable40. Moreover, there is excellent internal consistencies among all
the items in the factors as the Cronbach’s alphas exceed .8 for all the factors
(αsocial effects=.938; αcauses=.899; αnature.911; αeconomic effects=.914). The overall
item loadings in the respective factors, the communalities are given in table
2.

40
Hair, J., Black, W., Babin, B., & Anderson, R. (2010). Multivariate Data Analysis (7th
ed.), Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, Prentice-Hall, Inc.

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Table 2: Exploratory Factor Analysis

Social Root- Economic

Items Nature Communalities
Effects Causes Effects
S4 0.914 0.793
S2 0.905 0.779
S3 0.892 0.738
S1 0.886 0.747
S6 0.875 0.654
S7 0.867 0.801
S5 0.806 0.830
S8 0.477 0.825
C8 0.826 0.861
C6 0.795 0.655
C9 0.778 0.803
C7 0.761 0.754
C1 0.739 0.320
C4 0.720 0.733
C5 0.709 0.783
C2 0.667 0.836
C3 0.665 0.823
N1 0.877 0.555
N2 0.870 0.448
N3 0.847 0.507
N4 0.846 0.563
N5 0.799 0.531
E3 0.900 0.651
E4 0.894 0.583
E2 0.868 0.686
E1 0.837 0.636
Cronbach’s'
.938 .899 .911 .914
Alpha

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Confirmatory factor analysis.

Results of the exploratory factor analysis were used to construct the

structural model diagram for the CFA as given in the appendixes. The CFA
confirmed the latent structure for four factors as reported in the EFA. The
overall model fit indexes were excellent (CMIN/DF=3.628; GFI=.916;
TLI=.952; CFI=.96: RMSEA=.055) (Hair et al., 2010). This confirmed the
overall structure’s validity as proposed by the EFA. The path diagram for
the CFA and the path coefficients are given in figure 1. For a one factor
model the CFA is not satisfactorily acceptable (CMIN/DF=.961; GFI=.844;
TLI=.837; CFI=.882; RMSEA=.101). This suggest that four factor solution
is more appropriate.

The overall confirmatory analysis gives both convergent validity (Average

Variance Extracted (AVE)>0.5: Economic Effects=.693; Nature=.693;
Social Effect=.673; Causes=.502) and discriminant validities
(MSV(Maximum Shared Variance)<AVE) in all factors: Economic Effects
(AVE=.693>MSV=0.059), Nature (AVE=.693> MSV=.006), Social
Effects (AVE=.673>MSV=.059), Causes (AVE=.502> MSV=.066) also the
square root of AVE is greater than inter-construct correlation as given in
table 441 The overall factorial structure is reliable (CR>.7) for every factor
(Economic Effect=.898; Nature=.918; Social Effects=.941; Causes=.900)

Discussion

We intended to study if the respondents of Balochistan were able to

highlight the intentions terrorists had in their minds regarding what they

41
Hair, J., Black, W., Babin, B., & Anderson, R. (2010). Multivariate Data Analysis (7th
ed.), Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, Prentice-Hall, Inc.

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wanted to achieve through their acts. Four factors were obtained through the
factor analysis including nature, causes, social and economic effects of
terrorism in Balochistan in the data. In this section we would discuss each
of those factors separately.

Nature of Terrorism

As hypothesized, Balochistan has a peculiar nature of terrorism. We accept

the hypothesis as our respondents highlighted certain peculiar aspects of the
origin and type of terrorism in the province. Terrorism is a composite
actuality containing several aspects from geographic location to internal and
international politics, from ethno-lingual orientation to sectarianism, and
from economic resources to a sense of deprivation among the indigenous
people. The nature of terrorism in thus peculiar to Balochistan. However, by
peculiar we do not mean one of its kind; what we suggest is that this is an
uncommon case that would rarely exist elsewhere in its entirety.

The respondents claimed that the acts of terrorism in Balochistan are an

organized crime that has the primary motive of evoking fear among the
residents of the province. This would result in people yearning for action
from the government. In turn, the terrorists intend to pressurize the
government in considering them as vital forces and their demands must be
considered seriously. The terrorist also wants to disunite the people into
ethnic groups and religious sects to manoeuvre their heinous motives even
more easily.

The terrorists also have an awareness of the geo-political rhetoric in the

province and have a strong reflection of this in their operatives. The politics
in the neighboring regions, Afghanistan especially, have a direct effect on

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42
the political arena in Balochistan .Further, the politics of Balochistan
revolves around the ethnic deprivation of government’s attention and policy
incentives. Hussain43 suggests that people of Balochistan believe that the
province of Punjab gets unfair share of resources and thus the politics in the
province has a strong focus on this issue. The militants also strongly
highlight this point and try to justify their acts of terrorism in this
philosophy. Unfortunately, some ethnic groups tend to find conciliation of
their opinion in this philosophy.

The terrorists tend to focus their activities mostly in the urban areas
particularly Quetta, the capital of the province. This point is also noticed by
the respondents and has support for our conclusion in the previous literature.
The main purpose of the terrorists in striking the most developed parts of an
area is to cause the maximum damage. Fundamentally, this is because most
of the economic and social activity takes place in the developed area
compared to the rural and undeveloped parts44.Further, most of the
economic activity in the rural area is directly related to the developed parts.

In Balochistan, terrorism is fundamentally an ethno-religious centered

activity. The terrorists give either an ethnic or a religious orientation to their
acts45. Therefore, two ethnic groups- Settlers and Hazaras- are more affected
by terrorism than the others. The settlers are affected as a consequence of
the prejudice against them for their origin from a different part of the country

42
Husain, A. (2003). Terrorism, development and democracy. India. Shapira Publications
43
Ibid
44
Drakos, K. & Gofas, A., (2006). In search of the average transnational terrorist attack
venue. Defence and Peace Economics 17(2), 73–93
45
Siddiqui, F.H., (2012). Security Dynamics in Pakistani Balochistan: Religious Activism
and Ethnic Conflict in the War on Terror. Asian Affairs: An American Review, 39(3), 157-
175

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

and for their use of resources of the province46 (Samad, 2014). However,
whatever the case, there is some foreign involvement and support in
terrorism47

Causes of Terrorism

A majority of our respondents suggested that the root cause of terrorism in

Balochistan can be traced back to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and
the support of Pakistan for USA. This point is supported by the study of
Hussain 48.

Another very important cause of terrorism in Balochistan, as highlighted by

our respondents, was the lack of economic activity in the province. The
unemployment, on the other hand, is high. This gives rise to less productive
activities and crimes in the province. Some of the youth resort to terrorism
as they easily get brainwashed by either politicians or extremists. Similar
conclusion has been drawn by syed and martin 49. We also find good support
for these arguments in other literature where the lack of government support
and economic activity are considered the sources of crime, violence and
terrorism

Another important source of terrorism reported by our respondents was the

ease of transportation and movement across border between Afghanistan
and Pakistan. There is a strong reason to believe in this point. The border

4646
Samad, Y., (2014). Understanding the insurgency in Balochistan. Commonwealth and
Comparative Politics, 52(2), 7-50
47
ibid
48
Husain, A. (2003). Terrorism, development and democracy. India. Shapira Publications
49
Syed, S.H., Saeed, L., & Martin, R.P., (2015). Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in
Pakistan. Journal of Applied Security Research, 10,181–206

17
Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

between the two countries is very large, stretching 2640 km 50.The vastness
and openness of the border gives easy access to the terrorists to move across
border and find safe havens in remote areas Recently, however, the
government of Pakistan has taken the humongous task of fencing the border
so that the trouble can be reduced.

This discussion of the results of our respondents’ claims, we can suggest

that there is sufficient evidence that the theorized hypothesis, “Lack of
economic activity, education and sound policies are major causes of
terrorism in Balochistan” is acceptable. The lack of economic activity, low
literacy rate and poor governance have been highlighted as important causes
of terrorism in our data. Thus, we retain our second hypothesis.

The Socio-economic Consequences

Our results indicate that the respondents have clearly articulated the
negative effects of the acts of terrorism on their socio-economic life. In the
economic matters, terrorism has resulted in lack of entrepreneurial activity,
shortages of routine products and slower economic growth. We, thus accept
the hypothesis that terrorism has negatively affected the socio-economic life
of people in Balochistan.

Among the most drastic effects of terrorism is that the youth, particularly in
ethnically minor groups, has been deprived of education and learning. The
fear has made parents worried about the children so much so that they do
not want to risk the lives of their children in the pursuit of education. The
effect, in fact, is manifold. The lower trends towards education to youth

50
Fair, C. C., Howenstein, N., & Their, J. A., (2006). Trouble on the Pakistan-Afghanistan
Border. United States Institute for Peace, December 2006, Retrieved Feb, 2019 from
http://www.usip.org/publications/troubles-pakistan-afghanistan-border

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

create further caveat in the public efforts towards improvements in the

condition. The fear among people is a motivational drive for the terrorists51
(Berman & Latin, 2008). Moreover, the fear also extends towards the
teachers and consequently results in even lower quality of education.

Also, the social life of the people of Balochistan has been severely affected
in Balochistan. Our respondents reported that they fear going out for picnics,
eating in restaurants, going to parks and even meeting relatives. The crime
level has also risen in the wake of the acts of terrorism as the government is
primarily focused on curtailing terrorism, the caveat thus created results in
motivation for the criminals. Overall, the society is severely disturbed
directly and indirectly by terrorism.

Though terrorism also has a religious orientation, respondents claimed that

terrorism has severely affected the religious activities in the province.
People are afraid of observing public religious ceremonies. They are even
afraid to attend prayers in mosques Even the prayers of Eids and the
Mahafils of Ashora are among the occasions of greater fears. The impact of
these is that there is greater hatred developed for the opposite sects and thus
a greater disunity among people. This brings people closer to animosity and
distrust for the others. situation might result in greater sectarian conflicts
among different religious groups52.

As far the economic downturn, there was great agreements among our
respondents that the worst hit area by terrorism is the impact on the
economic affairs of the province. Among the worst hit economic factors the

51
Berman, E. & Laitin, D., (2005). Hard targets: theory and evidence on suicide attacks.
NBER Working Paper 11740. Cambridge, MA: NBER
52
Nawaz, S., (2016). Countering Militancy and Terrorism in Pakistan: The Civil-Military
Nexus. United State Institute of Peace

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

reduction of business activity was on top. This, in turn, has a sort of ripple
effect in the economy. The first and the foremost effect of reduced business
in the province is on the standard of living of the inhabitants and the overall
GDP of the province and the worst effect group in the community is the low-
income members of the society.

Other than fall in income and earnings, the respondents also reported
shortages of daily-use items and utilities. Often times, the terrorists attack
and destroy power lines and gas pipelines in remote area. It takes time to
repair those breakages and people face difficulty in the daily works. The
shortage of power and gas affects every sphere of public life from the
household chores to the professional works. Overall, the economy is badly
affected and fuels the already existing economic crises. This results in
further economic slowdown and lower growth (Hyder, Akram & Padda,
2015).

Policy Recommendations: The Cures

Our study gives rise to several aspects that affect the socio-economic fabric
of the province of Balochistan. Several points raised by our respondents
have strong reinforcement of the finding made by Syed and Martin53 in their
work. As such, we recommend that the government needs to improve the
investment spirit among people for curbing terrorism and nurturing of future
terrorist. This is because increased business will result in higher income and
employment and will thus give the youth some activity to work positive in
the development of the province and the country54

53
Syed, S.H., Saeed, L., & Martin, R.P., (2015). Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in
Pakistan. Journal of Applied Security Research, 10,181–206
54
Berman, E. & Laitin, D., (2005). Hard targets: theory and evidence on suicide attacks.
NBER Working Paper 11740. Cambridge, MA: NBER

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

In addition, the government should also work to improve the current

psychology of deprivation among the youth of Balochistan for resources and
share of the overall findings. The mainstream politicians must be brought
on board and their just demands be met. They should also be logically and
politically convinced for the reasons of differences in budgetary matters and
their reservation be seriously addressed. As the points were highlighted in
our data, the arguments also have theoretical relevance. The government
should not consider the service sector being non-important in this regard.
Syed and Martin55 have found out a strong correlation between greater
spending on service sector and reduction in terrorism. Among the service
sector, the most important sector is the provision of health services
Improved health services have good effect on people in winning their favors.
Good governance is yet another important cure for improved counter-
terrorism efforts 56

Cross border terrorism can be curtailed by developing better relationship

with the neighboring countries and through greater collaborations and
cooperation. The governments can enter into security agreements with its
immediate neighbors and supports their initiatives on counter-terrorism
activities. A greater focus on non-military solutions is also an effective way
to reduce terrorism in addition, the inclusion of the civil society in counter-
terrorism efforts can further ameliorate the intuitive (Nawaz, 2016)57. The
curbing of terrorism, in deed, is a combined effort where all segments of the

55
Syed, S.H., Saeed, L., & Martin, R.P., (2015). Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in
Pakistan. Journal of Applied Security Research, 10,181–206
56
Nawaz, S., (2016). Countering Militancy and Terrorism in Pakistan: The Civil-Military
Nexus. United State Institute of Peace
57
Ibid

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

society can play vital roles and should thus be engaged in the efforts and
supported for their work.

Conclusion

In this study, we attempted to highlight the nature, causes, consequences

and the cure of terrorism in Balochistan. The area was chosen on the grounds
as this province of Pakistan is one of the worst hit areas by the acts of
terrorists. Besides, this province has extreme geopolitical importance. The
area directly neighbors two countries; Iran and Afghanistan and dynamics
of terrorism are many folds here. Much, in fact, could be learnt from this
area. Thus, using a self-administered questionnaire data were collected from
the residents of the province, the instrument duly tested for its validity and
reliability. The percentages in the data were used to report the findings.

Several important forces are playing their roles in supporting terrorism in

Balochistan including the lack of education, poor infrastructure, low
business/ economic activity and a sense of political deprivation especially
by the youth of the province. The immediate border with Afghanistan, a
country that is in war has drastic effect on the peace in the province. The
terrorism in the province is thus part of a global, political situation besides
the internal political crises within the province.

The socio-economic effects of terrorism are felt in every sphere of life

including family like, professional life and social activities. Religious
activities are also greatly affected by terrorism. Government can reduce the
act of terrorism by developing a multiple faceted policy and by including all
important stakeholders. Good governance, provision of better education,
improved services- especially health care- and developed infrastructure
would dampen the current restless in the area. The government should look

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

for non-military option rather for a long-lasting improvement or distrust in

the province.

The study primarily focuses on four elements of terrorism in Balochistan

and thus only limited information could be obtained for each. It is
recommended that studies that could explore all those areas in depth could
be undertaken for improved understanding of the issue. A study of the cross-
border relationship can also help in better understanding and solution to the
problem. Improved international relationship could further improve the
situation.

Appendices

Table 3: KMO and Bartlett's Test

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. 0.881

Bartlett's Approx. Chi-Square 18003.976

Test of
df 325
Sphericity
Sig. 0.000

Table 4: Discriminant and Convergent Validity

MaxR
CR AVE MSV EE Nat SE Cs
(H)

Econ_Effect 0.898 0.693 0.059 0.968 0.833

Nature 0.918 0.693 0.066 0.930 0.069† 0.832

Socio_Effect
0.941 0.673 0.059 0.959 0.243*** -0.145*** 0.820
s

Causes 0.900 0.502 0.066 0.905 0.144*** 0.256*** -0.081* 0.708

In table 3: CR(Composite Ratio); AVE( Average Variance Extracted); MSV

(Maximum Shared Variance); EE(Economic Effects); Nat(Nature);
SE(Social Effects) and Cs(Causes)

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Terrorism in Balochistan: Issues, Causes [PAKISTAN JOURNAL OF TERRORISM RESEARCH, VOL II, ISSUE II]

Figure 1: CFA Path Diagram

Dr. Nadeem-uz-Zaman is Assistant Professor at BUITMES. He may be

contacted at naz_e_zeest@yahoo.com
Dr. Muhammad Shafiq is lecturer at University of Balochistan. He may be
contacted at mukhtaruzma@gmail.com
Dr. Safia Bano is an Assistant Professor at Institute of Management
Sciences University of Balochistan. She may be contacted at
sb_ims@yahoo.com

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