ASSIGNMENT

UNIVERSITY OF THE PUNJAB

SUBMITTED BY:
Tayyaba Ashraf (BS-PHY-24-M-08)
Kinza Sarfaraz (BS-PHY-24-M-28)
Meerab Ramzan (BS-PHY-24-M-36)
Areeba Mehmood (BS-PHY-24-M-05)

SUBMITTED TO:
Dr. Fouzia Iqbal

SUBJECT:
Quantitative Reasoning

SUBMITTED ON:
28 December,2024

ADDITION PROBABILITY
Problem no. 1
Suppose that 33% of the people have O+ blood and 7% have O-. What is
the probability that the next president of the United States has type O blood.
SOLUTION
Let's calculate the probability:

Probability of having O+ blood=P(A)= 33%

Probability of having O- blood=P(B)= 7%
Probability of having O blood=P(A) + P(B) = 33% + 7%= 40%
So, the probability that the next President of the United States has Type O blood is 40%.

Problem no. 2
A survey found that 60% of teenagers enjoy playing video games, 40%
enjoy reading books. If 20% of teenagers enjoy both (playing video games and reading
books). What is the probability that a randomly selected teenager enjoys either playing video
games or reading books?
SOLUTION
Let's use the addition probability formula:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Where:

P(A) = Probability of enjoying video games = 60% = 0.6

P(B) = Probability of enjoying reading books = 40% = 0.4
P(A and B) = Probability of enjoying both = 20% = 0.2

Now, let's plug in the values:

P(A or B) = 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.2

= 0.8

The final answer is: 0.8 or 80%

Problem no. 3
Urns 1, 2 and 3 contain three pennies and four dimes, two pennies and five
dimes, three pennies and one dime, respectively. One coin is selected at random from each
urn. If two of the three coins are dimes, what is the probability that the coin selected from urn
1 is a dime?
SOLUTION
Let's break it down step by step:

Step 1: Calculate the probability of selecting a dime from each urn.

Urn 1: 4 dimes out of 7 coins = 4/7

Urn 2: 5 dimes out of 7 coins = 5/7
Urn 3: 1 dime out of 4 coins = 1/4

Step 2: Calculate the probability of selecting two dimes and one non-dime.

There are three possible combinations:

- Urn 1: dime, Urn 2: dime, Urn 3: non-dime
- Urn 1: dime, Urn 2: non-dime, Urn 3: dime
- Urn 1: non-dime, Urn 2: dime, Urn 3: dime

Calculate the probability for each combination:

- Combination 1: (4/7) × (5/7) × (3/4) = 60/196

- Combination 2: (4/7) × (2/7) × (1/4) = 8/196
- Combination 3: (3/7) × (5/7) × (1/4) = 15/196

Step 3: Calculate the total probability of selecting two dimes and one non-dime.

Add the probabilities of the three combinations:

60/196 + 8/196 + 15/196 = 83/196

# Step 4: Calculate the probability that the coin selected from Urn 1 is a dime, given that two
of the three coins are dimes.

This is the probability of Combination 1 plus Combination 2, divided by the total probability:

(60/196 + 8/196) / (83/196) = 68/83

The final answer is: 68/83

SUBTRACTION PROBABILITY
Problem no. 4
A number is selected at random from the set of natural numbers {1, 2, 3,
…, 1000}. What is the probability that it is divisible by 4 but neither by 5 nor by 7?
SOLUTION
To find the probability, we need to count the number of favorable outcomes (numbers
divisible by 4, but not by 5 or 7) and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes (1000
numbers).

Step 1: Count the numbers divisible by 4

There are 1000/4 = 250 numbers divisible by 4.

Step 2: Exclude numbers divisible by 5

Numbers divisible by 4 and 5 are multiples of 20. There are 1000/20 = 50 such numbers. We
subtract these from the count: 250 - 50 = 200.

Step 3: Exclude numbers divisible by 7

Numbers divisible by 4 and 7 are multiples of 28. There are 1000/28 = 35.71 (round down to
35, as we can't have a fraction of a number). We subtract these from the count: 200 - 35 =
165.

Step 4: Calculate the probability

The probability is the number of favorable outcomes (165) divided by the total number of
possible outcomes (1000).
The final answer is: 0.165
Problem no. 5
Suppose that four women and two men enter a restaurant and sit at
random around a table that has four chairs on one side and four on the other side. What is
the probability that the men are not all sitting on one side?
SOLUTION
To find the probability that the men are not all sitting on one side, we can first find the
probability that they are all sitting on one side and then subtract that from 1.

Step 1: Calculate the total number of ways to seat the six people.
There are 6! = 720 ways to arrange the six people around the table.

Step 2: Calculate the number of ways to seat the men on one side.
If the two men sit on one side, there are 4 ways to choose their seats, and then 4! = 24 ways
to arrange the women on the other side. Since there are two sides, we multiply this by 2. So,
there are 2 * 4 * 24 = 192 ways for the men to sit on one side.

Step 3: Calculate the probability that the men are all sitting on one side.
The probability is the number of favorable outcomes (men on one side) divided by the total
number of outcomes. So, the probability is 192 / 720.

Step 4: Calculate the probability that the men are not all sitting on one side.
To find the probability that the men are not all sitting on one side, we subtract the probability
from step 3 from 1. So, the probability is 1 - (192 / 720).

To simplify the answer:

The probability that the men are not all sitting on one side is 11/15 or approximately 73%.

Problem no. 6
If five boys and five girls sit in a row in a random order, what is the
probability that no two children of the same sex sit together?
SOLUTION
To find the probability, we'll use the concept of alternating boys and girls.

Step 1: Calculate the total number of ways to arrange the 10 children.

The total number of ways = 10! = 3,628,800

Step 2: Calculate the number of ways to arrange the children such that no two of the same
sex sit together.
We can think of this as arranging the boys and girls in an alternating pattern. There are two
possible patterns: BGBGBGBGB and GBGBGBGBG.

Step 3: Calculate the number of ways to arrange the boys and girls in each pattern.
For each pattern, there are 5! ways to arrange the boys and 5! ways to arrange the girls.
Step 4: Calculate the total number of favorable outcomes.
Total favorable outcomes = 2 × 5! × 5! = 2 × 120 × 120 = 28,800

Step 5: Calculate the probability that no children of the same sex sit together.
Probability = Total favorable outcomes / Total number of ways
= 28,800 / 3,628,800
= 1/126

The final answer is: 1/126

MULTIPLICATION PROBABILITY
Problem no. 8
Suppose that five good fuses and two defective ones have been mixed up. To
find the defective fuses, we test them one-by-one, at random and without replacement. What
is the probability that we are lucky and find both of the defective fuses in the first two tests?
SOLUTION
Good Fuses = 5
Bad Fuses = 2
Total Fuses = 7

Probability of picking defective fuse in first test = P(A) = 2/7

Probability of picking defective fuse in second test = P(B) = 1/ 6

Probability of finding defective fuse in first two tests = P(A×B) = 2/7 × 1/ 6 = 2/42 = 1/21
Problem no. 9
A consulting firm is awarded 43% of the contracts it bids on. Suppose that
Nordulf works for a division of the firm that gets to do 15% of the projects contracted for. If
Nordulf directs 35% of the projects submitted to his division, what is the percentage of all
bids submitted by the firm will result in contracts for projects directed by Nordulf?
SOLUTION
Let's break it down step by step:

1. The firm gets awarded 43% of the contracts it bids on: P(A) = 0.43
2. Nordulf's division gets to do 15% of the projects contracted for: P(B) = 0.15
3. Nordulf directs 35% of the projects submitted to his division: P(C) = 0.35

To find the percentage of all bids submitted by the firm that will result in contracts for projects
directed by Nordulf, we need to multiply the probabilities of each step:

P(A) × P(B) × P(C) = 0.43 × 0.15 × 0.35

= 0.022575

To convert this to a percentage, multiply by 100:

0.022575 × 100 = 2.2575%

Therefore, approximately 2.26% of all bids submitted by the firm will result in contracts for
projects directed by Nordulf.
Problem no. 10
You have a cowboy hat, a top hat and an Indonesian hat called a
Songkok. You also have four shirts: white, black, green and pink. If you choose one hat and
one shirt at random, what is the probability that you choose the
Songkok and the black shirt?
SOLUTION

Probability of choosing songkok =P(A)=⅓

Probability of choosing black shirt =P(B)=1/4

Since these events are independent, we can multiply the probabilities:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)= (1/3) × (1/4)

= 1/12

So, the probability of choosing the Songkok and the black shirt is 1/12.

BAYES THEOREM
Problem no. 11
During a double homicide murder trial, based on circumstantial evidence
alone, the jury becomes 15% certain that a suspect is
guilty. DNA samples recovered from the
murder scene are then compared with DNA samples extracted from the suspect. Give the
size and conditions of the recovered samples, a forensic scientist estimates that the
probability of the sample having come from someone other than the suspect is 10−9. With
this new information, how certain should the jury be of the suspect’s guilt?
SOLUTION

1. *Prior probability (P(G))*: The jury is 15% certain that the suspect is guilty based on
circumstantial evidence alone. So, P(G) = 0.15.
2. *Prior probability of innocence (P(not G))*: Since the suspect is either guilty or not guilty,
P(not G) = 1 - P(G) = 1 - 0.15 = 0.85.
3. *Likelihood (P(E|G))*: The probability of the DNA sample matching the suspect's DNA
given that the suspect is guilty is 1, since the DNA would match if the suspect is indeed
guilty.
4. *Likelihood (P(E|not G))*: The probability of the DNA sample matching the suspect's DNA
given that the suspect is not guilty is 10^−9, as estimated by the forensic scientist.
5. *Posterior probability (P(G|E))*: We want to find the probability that the suspect is guilty
given the new DNA evidence.

Applying Bayes' theorem:

P(G|E) = P(E|G) × P(G) / P(E)

= P(E|G) × P(G) / (P(E|G) × P(G) + P(E|not G) × P(not G))
Substituting the values:

P(G|E) = 1 × 0.15 / (1 × 0.15 + 10^−9 × 0.85)

= 0.15 / (0.15 + 8.5 × 10^−10)
≈ 0.15 / 0.15
≈ 0.999999985 (or approximately 99.9999985%)

So, with the new DNA evidence, the jury should be approximately 99.9999985% certain of
the suspect's guilt. The DNA evidence has significantly increased the probability of the
suspect's guilt, from 15% to almost 100%.

Problem no. 12
A box contains 7 red and 13 blue balls. Two balls are selected at random
and are discarded without their colors being seen. If a third ball is drawn randomly and
observed to be red, what is the probability that both of the discarded balls were blue?
SOLUTION

Probability that both balls are blue=P(BB)= 13/20 × 12/19 = 39/95

Probability that both balls are red=P(RR)= 7/20 × 6/19 = 21/190
Probability that balls are red and blue=P(BR)= 13/20 × 7/19 + 7/20 × 13/19= 91/190
Probability that third ball is red=P(R)
Probability that both discarded balls were blue= P(BB|R)

P(BB|R)= { P(R|BB).P(BB) } / { P(R|BB).P(BB) + P(R|BR).P(BR) + P(R|RR).P(RR) }

P(BB|R)= { 7/18 × 39/95 } / { (7/18 ×39/95) + (6/18 × 91/190) + (5/18 × 21/190) }

P(BB|R) ≈ 0.46

Problem no. 7
In a mysterious valley, there are two groups of people:
group A (Liar) : Always lie
Group B (Truthful with ⅔
Probability): Lie ⅓ of the time and
tell the truth ⅔ of the time.
You are lost in the valley and randomly encounter
with a person who belongs to either group
• 70% of the people in the valley belong to
Group B.
• 30% of the people belong to Group A.
You ask for directions and the person gives you an answer. What is probability that the
answer is truthful and what is the probability that the person is from group B?
SOLUTION

Probability of answer being truthful=P(T)

Probability of person being from group A=P(A)=0.3
Probability of person being from group B=P(B)=0.7
P(T)= P(T|B)P(B) + P(T|A)P(A)
Probability group B member tells the truth= P(T|B)= ⅔
Probability group A member tells the truth= P(T|A)= 0
P(T) = ⅔ × 0.7 + 0 × 0.3 = 14/30 = 0.4667

Probability that the person is from group B= P(B|T) = { P(T|B).P(B) } / P(T)

P(B|T) = ( ⅔ × 0.7 ) / 0.4667 = 1

So, if the answer is truthful , the person is certainly from group B.