Chapter 4

Probability

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 Chapter Outline
• 4.1 Basic Concepts of Probability and Counting
• 4.2 Conditional Probability and the Multiplication
Rule
• 4.3 The Addition Rule
• 4.4 Additional Topics in Probability and Counting

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 Section 4.1

Basic Concepts of Probability and

Counting

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 Section 4.1 Objectives
• How to identify the sample space of a probability
experiment and how to identify simple events
• How to use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find
the number of ways two or more events can occur
• How to find the probability of the complement of an event
• How to use a tree diagram and the Fundamental Counting
Principle to find probabilities

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 Probability Experiments
Probability experiment
• An action, or trial, through which specific results (counts,
measurements, or responses) are obtained.
Outcome
• The result of a single trial in a probability experiment.
Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
Event
• Consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.
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 Example: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
A survey consists of asking people for their blood types
(O, A, B, and AB), including whether they are Rh-
positive or Rh-negative. Determine the number of
outcomes and identify the sample space.
Solution:
There are four blood types: O, A, B, and AB. Each
person is either Rh-positive or Rh-negative. A tree
diagram gives a visual display of the outcomes by
using branches that originate from a starting point. It
can be used to find the number of possible outcomes in
a sample space as well as individual outcomes.
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 Solution: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
Tree diagram:

The sample space has eight possible outcomes, which

are listed below.
{O+, O– , A+, A–, B+, B–, AB+, AB–}
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 Simple Events
Simple event
• An event that consists of a single
outcome.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling a 3”
A = {H3}

• An event that consists of more than one

outcome is not a simple event.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling an
even number” B ={H2, H4, H6}
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
1. For quality control, you randomly select a machine
part from a batch that has been manufactured that
day. Event A is selecting a specific defective
machine part.
Solution:
Event A has only one outcome: choosing the specific
defective machine part. So, the event is a simple event.
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
2. You roll a six-sided die. Event B is rolling at least
a 4.

Solution:
Event B has three outcomes: rolling a 4, a 5, or a 6.
Because the event has more than one outcome, it is not
simple.

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 The Fundamental Counting
Principle
The Fundamental Counting Principle
• If one event can occur in m ways and a second event
can occur in n ways, the number of ways the two
events can occur in sequence is m ∙ n.
• Can be extended for any number of events occurring
in sequence.

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 Example: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
You are purchasing a new car. The possible
manufacturers, car sizes, and colors are listed in the
table.

How many different ways can you select one

manufacturer, one car size, and one color? Use a tree
diagram to check your result.

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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
There are three choices of manufacturers, two
car sizes, and four colors.
Using the Fundamental Counting Principle:
3 ∙ 2 ∙ 4 = 24 ways

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 Example: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
The access code for a car’s security system consists of
four digits. Each digit can be any number from 0
through 9.

How many access codes are possible when

1. each digit can be used only once and not repeated?
2. each digit can be repeated?
3. each digit can be repeated but the first digit cannot
be 0 or 1?
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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
Solution
1. Because each digit can be used only once, there are
10 choices for the first digit, 9 choices left for the
second digit, 8 choices left for the third digit, and 7
choices left for the fourth digit. Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle, you can conclude
that there are
10 ∙ 9 ∙ 8 ∙ 7 = 5040
possible access codes.

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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
Solution
2. Because each digit can be repeated, there are 10
choices for each of the four digits. So, there are
10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 = 104 = 10,000
possible access codes.
3. Because the first digit cannot be 0 or 1, there are 8
choices for the first digit. Then there are 10 choices
for each of the other three digits. So, there are
8 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 = 8000
possible access codes.
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 Types of Probability
Classical (theoretical) Probability
• Each outcome in a sample space is equally likely.

• P(E) = Number of outcomes in event E

Number of outcomes in sample space

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 Example: Finding Classical
Probabilities
You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of each
event.
1. Event A: rolling a 3
2. Event B: rolling a 7
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5

Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

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 Solution: Finding Classical
Probabilities
1. Event A: rolling a 3 Event A = {3}
1
P (rolling a 3)   0.167
6
2. Event B: rolling a 7 Event B= { } (7 is not in
0 the sample space)
P (rolling a 7)   0
6
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5
Event C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
4
P(rolling a number less than 5)   0.667
6
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 Types of Probability
Empirical (statistical) Probability
• Based on observations obtained from probability
experiments.
• Relative frequency of an event.

Frequency of event E f
• P(E) = =
Total frequency n
Note that n = 𝑓.

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 Example: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
A company is conducting an online survey of randomly
selected U.S. adults to determine how they read books
during the past year, if at all. So far, 1490 adults have
been surveyed. The pie chart shows the results. (Note that
digital books include ebooks as well as audio books.)
What is the probability that the
next adult surveyed read only
print books during the last
year?

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 Solution: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
Solution
• Note that the responses are not equally likely to occur
and are based on observations.
• You cannot use the formula for classical probability,
but you can use the formula for empirical probability.
• The event is a response of “read only print books.”
The frequency of this event is 578. The total of the
frequencies is
n = 578 + 91 + 426 + 395 = 1490.

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 Solution: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
Solution
• The empirical probability that the response of the
next adult is “read only print books” is
578
P(read only print books) = ≈ 0.388.
1490

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 Example: Using a Frequency
Distribution to Find Probabilities
A company is conducting a phone survey of randomly
selected individuals to determine the ages of social
networking site users. So far, 975 social networking site
users have been surveyed. The
frequency distribution shows
the results. What is the
probability that the next user
surveyed is 23 to 35 years old?

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 Solution: Using a Frequency
Distribution to Find Probabilities
Solution
• Because the responses are not equally likely to occur
and are based on observations, use the formula for
empirical probability.
• The event is a response of “23 to 35 years old.” The
frequency of this event is 312.
• The total of the frequencies is 975, the empirical
probability that the next user is 23 to 35 years old is
312
P(age 23 to 35) = = 0.32.
975
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 Complementary Events
Complement of event E
• The set of all outcomes in a sample space that are not
included in event E.
• Denoted E ′ (E prime)
• P(E) + P(E ′) = 1
• P(E) = 1 – P(E ′)
• P(E ′) = 1 – P(E)

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 Example: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
Find the probability of randomly selecting a social
networking site user who is not 23 to 35 years old.

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 Solution: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
Use empirical probability to find
P(age 23 to 35)
312
P(age 23 to 35) = = 0.32.
975

So, the probability that a user is not 23 to 35 years old is

312
P(age is not 23 to 35) = 1 − = 0.68
975

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 Example: Using a Tree
Diagram
A probability experiment consists of tossing a coin and
spinning the spinner shown. The spinner is equally
likely to land on each number. Use a tree diagram to
find the probability of each event.
1. Event A: tossing a tail and spinning an odd number
2. Event B: tossing a head or
spinning a number greater
than 3

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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

1. Event A = {T1, T3, T5, T7}

4 1
P(tossing a tail and spinning an odd number) =   0.25
16 4
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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

2. Event B = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8}
P(tossing a head or spinning 13
=  0.813
a number greater than 3) 16
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 Section 4.2

Conditional Probability and the

Multiplication Rule

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 Section 4.2 Objectives
• How to find the probability of an event given that
another event has occurred
• How to distinguish between independent and
dependent events
• How to use the Multiplication Rule to find the
probability of two events occurring in sequence and
to find conditional probabilities

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 Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has already occurred
• Denoted P(B | A) (read “probability of B, given A”)

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
1. Two cards are selected in sequence from a standard
deck. Find the probability that the second card is a
queen, given that the first card is a king. (Assume
that the king is not replaced.)

Solution:
Because the first card is a king and is not replaced, the
remaining deck has 51 cards, 4 of which are queens.
4
P( B | A)  P(2 card is a Queen |1 card is a King ) 
nd st
 0.078
51

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
2. The table shows the results of a survey in which
2276 social media users were asked whether they
have ever been offended by something they saw on
social media. Find the probability that a user is male,
given that the user was offended by something on
social media.
Have you ever been offended
by something on social media?
Yes No Total
Female 619 549 1168
Male 532 576 1108
Total 1151 1125 2276
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 Solution: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
There are 1151 users who said they were offended by
something on social media. So, the sample space
consists of these 1151 users. Of these, 532 are males.
So, Have you ever been offended
by something on social media?
Yes No Total
Female 619 549 1168
Male 532 576 1108
Total 1151 1125 2276

532
P(BA) = ≈ 0.462.
1151
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 Independent and Dependent
Events
Independent events
• The occurrence of one of the events does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of the other event
• P(B | A) = P(B) or P(A | B) = P(A)
• Events that are not independent are dependent

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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
1. Selecting a king (A) from a standard deck of 52
playing cards, not replacing it, and then selecting a
queen (B) from the deck.

Solution:
4
P( B | A)  P(2nd card is a Queen |1st card is a King ) 
51
4
P( B)  P(Queen) 
52
Dependent (the occurrence of A changes the probability
of the occurrence of B)
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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
2. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then
rolling a six-sided die and obtaining a 6 (B).
Solution:
1
P( B | A)  P(rolling a 6 | head on coin) 
6
1
P( B)  P(rolling a 6) 
6

Independent (the occurrence of A does not change the

probability of the occurrence of B)
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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
3. Driving over 85 miles per hour (A), and then getting
in a car accident (B).
Solution:

Dependent (Driving over 85 miles per hour increases the

chances of getting in an accident)

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 The Multiplication Rule
Multiplication rule for the probability of A and B
• The probability that two events A and B will occur in
sequence is
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B | A)
• For independent events the rule can be simplified to
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B)
 Can be extended for any number of independent
events

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
1. Two cards are selected, without replacing the first
card, from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Find
the probability of selecting a king and then selecting
a queen.
Solution:
Because the first card is not replaced, the events are
dependent.
P( K and Q)  P( K )  P(Q | K )
4 4 16
    0.006
52 51 2652

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
2. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of tossing a head and then rolling a 6.

Solution:
The events are independent.
P( H and 6)  P( H )  P(6)
1 1
 
2 6
1
  0.083
12
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
For anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructive
surgery, the probability that the surgery is successful is
0.95. Find the probability that three ACL surgeries are
successful.

Solution:
The probability that each ACL surgery is successful is
0.95. The chance for success for one surgery is
independent of the chances for the other surgeries.
P(3 surgeries are successful) = (0.95)(0.95)(0.95)
≈ 0.857
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
For anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructive
surgery, the probability that the surgery is successful is
0.95. Find the probability that none of the three ACL
surgeries are successful.

Solution:
Because the probability of success for one surgery is
0.95. The probability of failure for one surgery is
1 – 0.95 = 0.05
P(none of the 3 surgeries is successful) = (0.05)(0.05)(0.05)
≈ 0.0001
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
For anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructive
surgery, the probability that the surgery is successful is
0.95.
Find the probability that at least one of the three ACL
surgeries is successful.
Solution:
“At least one” means one or more. The complement to
the event “at least one successful” is the event “none are
successful.” Using the complement rule
P(at least 1 is successful) = 1 – P(none are successful)
≈ 1 – 0.0001 = 0.9999
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
In a recent year, there were 18,187 U.S. allopathic medical
school seniors who applied to residency programs and
submitted their residency program choices. Of these seniors,
17,057 were matched with residency positions, with about
79.2% getting one of their top three choices. Medical
students rank the residency programs in their order of
preference, and program directors in the United States rank
the students. The term “match” refers to the process
whereby a student’s preference list and a program director’s
preference list overlap, resulting in the placement of the
student in a residency position.

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
1. Find the probability that a randomly selected senior
was matched with a residency position and it was
one of the senior’s top three choices.
Solution:
A = {matched to residency position}
B = {matched to one of top three choices}
17,057
P(A) = and P(B | A) = 0.792
18,187
17,057
P(A and B) = P(A)∙P(B | A) = (0.792) ≈ 0.743
18,187

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected senior that
was matched to a residency position did not get matched
with one of the senior’s top three choices.
Solution:
Use the complement:
P(B′ | A) = 1 – P(B | A)
= 1 – 0.792 = 0.208

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
3. Would it be unusual for a randomly selected senior
to be matched with a residency position and that it
was one of the senior’s top three choices?.
Solution:
It is not unusual because the probability of a senior
being matched with a residency position that was one
of the senior’s top three choices is about 0.743, which
is greater than 0.05. In fact, with a probability of
0.743, this event is likely to happen.

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 Section 4.3

The Addition Rule

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 Section 4.3 Objectives
• How to determine whether two events are mutually
exclusive
• How to use the Addition Rule to find the probability
of two events

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 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive
• Two events A and B cannot occur at the same time
• A and B have no outcomes in common

A and B are mutually A and B are not mutually

exclusive exclusive
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 Example: Recognizing
Mutually Exclusive Events
Determine whether the events are mutually exclusive.
Explain your reasoning.
1. Event A: Roll a 3 on a die.
Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.

Solution:
Mutually exclusive (The first event has one outcome, a
3. The second event also has one outcome, a 4. These
outcomes cannot occur at the same time.)

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 Example: Recognizing
Mutually Exclusive Events
Determine whether the events are mutually exclusive.
Explain your reasoning.
2. Event A: Randomly select a male student.
Event B: Randomly select a nursing major.

Solution:
Not mutually exclusive (The student can be a male
nursing major.)

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 Example: Recognizing
Mutually Exclusive Events
Determine whether the events are mutually exclusive.
Explain your reasoning.
3. Event A: Randomly select a blood donor with type O
blood.
Event B: Randomly select a female blood donor..

Solution:
Not mutually exclusive (The donor can be a female
with type O blood)

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 The Addition Rule
Addition rule for the probability of A or B
• The probability that events A or B will occur is
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
• For mutually exclusive events A and B, the rule can
be simplified to
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Can be extended to any number of mutually
exclusive events

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 Example: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
1. You select a card from a standard deck. Find the
probability that the card is a 4 or an ace.

Solution:
The events are mutually exclusive (if the card is a 4, it
cannot be an ace)
P (4 or ace)  P(4)  P(ace)
4 4
 
52 52
8
  0.154
52
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 Example: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
2. You roll a die. Find the probability of rolling a
number less than 3 or rolling an odd number.

Solution:
The events are not mutually exclusive (1 is an
outcome of both events)

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 Solution: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities

P(less than 3 or odd )

 P(less than 3)  P(odd )  P (less than 3 and odd )
2 3 1 4
     0.667
6 6 6 6
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 Example: Finding Probabilities of
Mutually Exclusive Events
The frequency distribution shows Sales volume ($) Months
volumes of sales (in dollars) and 0–24,999 3
the number of months in which a 25,000–49,999 5
sales representative reached each 50,000–74,999 6
sales level during the past three 75,000–99,999 7
years. Using this sales pattern, 100,000–124,999 9
find the probability that the sales 125,000–149,999 2
representative will sell between 150,000–174,999 3
$75,000 and $124,999 next 175,000–199,999 1

month.

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 Solution: Finding Probabilities of
Mutually Exclusive Events
• A = {monthly sales between Sales volume ($) Months
$75,000 and $99,999} 0–24,999 3
• B = {monthly sales between 25,000–49,999 5
$100,000 and $124,999} 50,000–74,999 6

• A and B are mutually exclusive 75,000–99,999 7

100,000–124,999 9
125,000–149,999 2
150,000–174,999 3
175,000–199,999 1

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 Solution: Finding Probabilities of
Mutually Exclusive Events
• A = {monthly sales between Sales volume ($) Months
$75,000 and $99,999} 0–24,999 3
• B = {monthly sales between 25,000–49,999 5
$100,000 and $124,999} 50,000–74,999 6

• A and B are mutually exclusive 75,000–99,999 7

100,000–124,999 9
P ( A or B )  P ( A)  P ( B ) 125,000–149,999 2
7 9 150,000–174,999 3
 
36 36 175,000–199,999 1

16
  0.444
36
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 Example: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
A blood bank catalogs the types of blood, including
whether it is Rh-positive or Rh-negative, given by
donors during the last five days. The number of donors
who gave each blood type is shown in the table.
1. Find the probability the donor has type O or type A
blood.
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

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 Solution: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
The events are mutually exclusive (a donor cannot have
type O blood and type A blood)
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409
P(type O or type A)  P (type O )  P (type A)
184 164
 
409 409
348
  0.851
409
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 Example: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
2. Find the probability the donor has type B or is Rh-
negative.
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

Solution:
The events are not mutually exclusive (a donor can have
type B blood and be Rh-negative)

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 Solution: Using the Addition
Rule to Find Probabilities
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

P(type B or Rh  neg )
 P(type B)  P( Rh  neg )  P(type B and Rh  neg )
45 65 8 102
     0.249
409 409 409 409

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A Summary of Probability

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Example: Combining Rules to
Find Probabilities
Use the figure to find the probability that a
randomly selected draft pick is not a running back
or a wide receiver.

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Solution: Combining Rules to
Find Probabilities
Solution:
Define events A and B.
A: Draft pick is a running back.
B: Draft pick is a wide receiver.

These events are mutually exclusive, so the probability

that the draft pick is a running back or wide receiver is
23 31 54
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = + = .
253 253 253

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Solution: Combining Rules to
Find Probabilities
Solution:
By taking the complement of P(A or B), you can
determine that the probability of randomly selecting a
draft pick who is not a running back or wide receiver is
54 199
1 – P(A or B) = 1 – = ≈ 0.787.
253 253

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