ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Chapter 2: Probability

Introduction

These lessons on probability will include the following topics: Samples in

probability, Probability of events, Theoretical probability, Experimental probability, Probability
problems, Tree diagrams, mutually exclusive events, independent events, dependent
events, Factorial, Permutations, Combinations, Probability in Statistics, Probability and
Combinatorics.

2.1. Sample Space and Relationships among Events.

PROBABILITY refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of an outcome. The theory
of probability provides methods that will permit us to quantify the chances, or likelihood,
associated with various outcomes of an event.

SAMPLE SPACE OF AN EXPERIMENT

An experiment is any action or process that generates data. The set of all possible outcomes
of an experiment is the sample space, S. Each outcome is a sample space called an
element or a sample point.

Methods of Describing a Sample Space

1. If the sample space has a finite number of sample points, we may describe the set by
listing the elements separated by commas and enclosed in brackets.

2. If the sample space has large or infinite number of sample points, describe the set by a
statement or rule.

Example 1: If a die is rolled, the sample space S is given by

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Example 2: If two coins are tossed, the sample space S is given by

S = {HH,HT,TH,TT} , where H = head and T = tail.

Example 3: If two dice are rolled, the sample space S is given by

S= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6) }
2.2 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

The Fundamental Counting Principle (also called the counting rule) is a way to
figure out the number of outcomes in a probability problem. Basically, you multiply the
events together to get the total number of outcomes.

COUNTING TECHNIQUES

If the number of possible outcomes in an experiment is quite large, the effort of

constructing the list of outcomes becomes prohibitive. By using some counting rules,
it is possible to determine the number of outcomes without listing.

PERMUTATION

A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a group of objects or elements. Order is an

important aspect of permutation.

1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken n at a time is

P= n!

2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

P= nPr = n!/(n-r)!

3. The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are identical, n2 are

identical,…., n or m are identical is

P= n!/ n1! n2!...nm!

4. The number of permutations of n objects of which n distinct objects are arrange in a

circle is

P= (n-1)!

COMBINATION
Combination is the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to
order.
The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is
nCr = n! / r! (n-r)!

EXAMPLE 2.1

How many numbers can be formed using all the digits 6, 7, 8, and 9?

Solution: To form different numbers, arrange all the 4 digits and the arrangements are
the number of numbers formed.

P=4! = 24 numbers
 Example 2.2

How many distinct permutations are there in the word MILLENNIUM?

Solution: There are 2M’s, 2L’s, 2I’s, 2N’s

P= 10!/2!x2!x2!x2! = 226, 800

Example 2.3

A. In how many ways can 4 letters a,b,c and d be arranged in a circle?

Solution

*using manual counting

(a,b,d,c)

(a,c,b,d)

(a,d,b,c)

(a,c,d,b)

(a,d,c,b)

(a,b,c,d) = there are 6 ways

Solution: P= (4-1)! = 3! = 6 ways

Example 2.4

From a box containing 4 defective and 5 non defective items, how many sample of
size 3 are possible.

A. With no restrictions

B. With 1 defective and 2 non defective item

a) n = number of ways of selecting 3 from 9

n = C3
9 = = 84 samples

b) n = Number of samples of 1 defective and 2 non defective

n = no. of ways of selecting 1 defective from 4 defective samples

n = no. of ways of selecting 2 non defective from 5 non defective samples

 n = 4C1 X 5C2 = X = 4(10) = 40 samples

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
The objective of probability is to assign to each event A a number P(A), called the
probability of the event A , which will give a precise measure of the chance that A will
happen.
The probability of an event A is the number of the outcomes favorable to A to the
number of outcomes. If NA is the number of outcomes favorable to event A and N is the total
number of outcomes, the number of outcomes in a sample space, thus

P(A) = nA/N

Propertie s of Probability

1. Positiveness 0 P(A) 1

2. Certainty P(S) = 1, the probability of a sure event

Example 2.5
In the experiment of examining 3 bulbs, find the probability of the following
events:

a.) exactly 2 bulbs are defective

b.) at least 2 bulbs are defective

SOLUTION:

The sample space for this experiment is S ={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND,
NNN}

a.) A = the event that exactly two bulbs are defective.

A = { DDN, DND, NDD}

N=8 = 0.375x100 = 37.5%

b.) B = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD}

x 100 = 50% the event at least two bulbs are defective

EXAMPLE 2.6

In a card game, if a hand is holding 5 cards, find the probability that there will be:

a. 3 aces

b. 4 hearts and 1 diamond

SOLUTION!

a.) A = the event of having 3 aces and 2 of any kind of the other than aces.

4C3 = number of ways of having 3 aces

48 C2 = number of ways of having 2 of any kind

nA = 4C3 x 48C2 = 4,512

N = 52C5 = 2,598,960

P(A) = =

b.) B = the event holding 4 hearts and 1 diamond

nB = 13C4 x 13C1 = 9,295

P(B) = =

Example 2.7

A bag contains eight red balls, four green balls and eight yellow balls. A ball is drawn at
random from the bag,and it is not a red ball. What is the probability that it is a green ball?

Solution:

8 red balls (excluded because red ball is not part of the balls to be drawn)

4 green balls

8 yellow balls
Let A = the event of having a green ball out of 12 balls

nA = 4C1 = no.of ways of selecting or picking a green ball.

N = 12C1 =12

P(A) = = 1/6 or 0.333

2.3 Rules of Probability

Probability Rules

1. The Probability of an event E must be a number between 0 and 1. i.e., 0£ P(E) £1. 2. If
an event E cannot occur, then its probability is 0. 3.

3. If an event E must occur, then its probability is 1. 4.

4. The sum of all probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

ADDITIVE RULES

1. If A and B are any 2 events, then

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)

2. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

3. If A and A’ are complementary events, then

P(A) + P(A’) = 1

Also, P(A B) – P(A) = P(B) - P(A B) = P(B )

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS – Events that could not happen at the same time. Two
events are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if they cannot occur at the same time. Looking
ahead: If we have mutually exclusive events, then their probabilities will add. Let’s make
sure we understand what it means for events to be mutually exclusive.

Intersection – the intersection of events A and B are the outcomes that are in both A and B.
The intersection is written as (A B)or “A and B”
Union – the union of two sets is a new set that contains all of the elements that are in at
least one of the two sets.The union is written as (A B) or “A or B”

Example: Suppose we roll a six-sided die. Let A be that we roll an even number. Let B b e
that we roll a number greater than 3.

What is the intersection between A and B?

Ans. Rolling a 6 or 4

What is the union of A and B?

Ans. Rolling a 6, 5, 4, or 2

Addition Rules (These apply to “or” statements.)

Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Rule 2: For ANY two outcomes A and B,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Note: In probability “A or B” denotes that A occurs, or B occurs, or both occur!

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS – Events that are there only two possible outcome, ex. A box
of two balls, flipping a coin

INDEPENDENT EVENTS – The occurrence of an event does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other event, ex. Justine and mary who travel school in diff.ways

EXAMPLE 2.8

In a civil engineering graduating class with 100 students, 69 are taking reinforced concrete
design, 54 are taking steel design and 35 are taking both reinforced concrete and steel
design. If one of these students is selected at random, find the probability that

a. The student is taking reinforced concrete or steel design.

b. The students is taking reinforced concrete but not steel design

SOLUTION:

Let A = the event that the student takes reinforced concrete

 B = the event that the student takes steel design

(A B) = the event that the student take both reinforced

concrete and steel design

P(A) = P(B) = P(A B) =

a. P(student takes r.c. or steel) = P(A or B) = P(A B)

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

= + - =

P(students takes r.c. or steel) =

b. P(student takes r.c. but not steel design)

= P(A and B’) = P(A B’) = P(A) -P(A B)

= - =

P(students takes r.c. but not steel design) =

EXAMPLE 2.9

Two events A and B have the following probabilities: P[A] =0.4, P[B] =0.5 and P[A B] =0.3.
Calculate P[A B]

Solution:

P[A] + P[B] - P(A B) = P[A B]

0.4 + 0.5 - 0.3 = 0.6

P[A B] = 0.6

Example 2.10
Suppose that A and B are mutually exclusive events for which P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5. What
is the probability that

a.) either a and b occurs

b.) A occurs but B does not

c.) both A and B does not?

Solution:

a.) P[A anb B] = 0.3+ 0.5

= 0.8

b.) P[A] = 0.3

c.) P[A and B] = 0

MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

If the event A and B are both occur, then

P(A B) = P(A/B) x P(B)

Since P(A B) = P(B ), then

P(A B) = P(B/A) x P(A)

Example 2.11

If P[A] = 0.3 ,P[B] = 0.5 and P[A B] = 0.6, Calculate

a.) P(A B)

b.) P[B/A]

Solution:

a.) P(A B) = P[A] + P[B] - P[A B]

= 0.3 + 0.5 - 0.6

= 0.2

B.) P[B/A] =
 =

= 0.667

●INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

= P(A) + P(B) – P(A B) so that,

P(A B) = P(A) x P(B)

Example: Rolling one die and getting a six, rolling a second die and getting a three.

Example: Draw a card from a deck and replacing it, drawing a second card from the deck
and getting a queen.

In each example, the first event has no effect on the probability of the second event.

Dependent - Two outcomes are said to be dependent if knowing that one of the outcomes
has occurred affects the probability that the other occurs.

Examples:

· Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a second card.

· Being a lifeguard and getting a suntan

· Having high grades and getting a scholarship

· Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a ticket

EXAMPLE

A petroleum company exploring for oil has decided to drill 2 wells, one after the other. The
probability of striking oil in the first well is 0.25. Given that they strike oil in the first attempt,
the probability of striking oil in the second attempt is 0.85. What is the probability of striking
oil in the both wells?

SOLUTION:

Let W1 = the event of striking oil in the 1st well

W2 =the event of striking oil in the 2nd well

P(striking oil in both wells) = P(W1 and W2)

P(W1 ) = P(W1) x P(W2/W1) = 0.25(0.85)

P(striking oil in both wells) = 0.1875

EXAMPLE

Sarah is deciding which courses she wants to take in her next college semester. The
probability that she enrolls in an Algebra is 0.30 and the probability that she enrolls in a
Biology course is 0.70. The probability that she will enroll in an Algebra course GIVEN that
she enrolls in Biology course is 0.40. a) what is the probability that she will enroll in both an
Algebra course AND a Biology course?, b) what is the probability that she will enroll in both
an Algebra course OR a Biology course?,

SOLUTION:

Let A = the event that the she enrolls in Algebra

B = the event that the she enrolls in Biology

(A B) = the event that she enrolls in Biology course given that she enroll in biology
course

P(A) = 0.30 P(B) = 0.70 P(A B) = =0.40

a) P(A and B) = P(A/B) x P(B)

= 0.40 x 0.70 = 0.28

b) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

= 0.30 + 0.70 – 0.28 = 0.72

Teaching and Learning Activities

Test I
1. In a group of 6 boys and 4 girls, four children are to be selected. In how many different
ways can they be selected such that at least one boy should be there?

2. How many distinct permutations are there in the word MISSISSIPPI? ENGINEERING?

3. Suppose a card is selected at random from a deck of 52 cards.

a.) What is the probability that the card selected is an ace?

b.) Given that the card selected is a club, what is the probability that it is an ace?

3. Ten lights of different colors are to be arrange in a circle. Find the number of
arrangements if the two colors red and blue must always be together

4. A box contains three 5-μf capacitors, four 10-μf capacitors and one 30-μf capacitors . If
three capacitor are picked at random, find the probability that there are

a. three 5-μf capacitors

b. one 5-μf capacitors, one 10-μf capacitors and one 30-μf capacitors.

5. A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is
drawn from the jar at random, what is the probability that this marble is white?

6. A dish contains 8 RED Jellybeans, 5 orange jellybeans, 3 black Jellybeans and 4 pink
jelly beAns. If a jellybean is selected at rardom, find the probability that it is

a.) A red jellybean

b.) a black and pink jellybean

cs.) an orange jellybean

7. On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the
probability of a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person
having a driving accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person
driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?

8. Approximately 9% of men have a type of color blindness that prevents them from
distinguishing between red and green. If 3 men are selected at random, find the
probability that all of them will have this type of red-green color blindness.

Flexible Teaching Learning Modalit y (FTLM) adopted

Example:

Online (synchronous)

//Edmodo, google classroom, moodle, schoology, Podcast etc..

Remote (asynchronous)

//module, case study, exercises, problems sets, etc…

 References (at least 3 references preferably copyrighted within the last 5 years,
alphabetically arranged)

Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineering by Marie-Wendy J.

Frany, Miriam S.P. Galvez and Emy L. Vasquez

http://www.fs-technology.com/EN/EDA-en.html

https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/math-probability.html