Frequency Analysis
Module 3
Characteristics of Rainfall
Intensity (mm/hr)
Duration (min, hours, days)
Areal extent (m2, ha) area of distribution
Frequency: once in 25, 50 or 100 years
Rainfall
= 50 year
return period
No Flood since Drainage is Adequate
ground surface inlet
manhole culvert
Qcapacity = 50 year return period
Vector Results Economic Losses
• Health Impacts • Trade losses
Rainfall • Accidents • Damaged Goods
= 100 year Building Damage Traffic Delays
return period • Cars and Machines • School Suspensions
• Household • Trucking Business
There is Flood since Drainage is Not Adequate
Flood = RT=100 – Qdrainage (T=50)
ground surface inlet
manhole culvert
Qcapacity = 50 year return period
Statistical Hydrology
N = time period of interest
P = probability of occurrence (exceedance)
T = recurrence interval or return period
Return Period is the average
number of years during which a 1
storm of given magnitude T=
(maximum depth or intensity) may Pexceedance
be expected to occur once, i.e.,
may be equalled or exceeded.
Statistical Hydrology
Probability of Probability of
Non-exceedance Exceedance
Pnon−exceedance = 1 − Pexceedance Pexceedance = 1 − Pnon−exceedance
1 1
Pnon −exceedance = 1− Pexceedance = 1 − 1 −
T T
Statistical Hydrology
Exceedance and Non-exceedance
Pexceedance = 1 − Pnon−exceedance 1
= 1 − 1 −
T
Probability of Exceedance
(of T-year rainfall MAY OCCUR in a series of N years)
N
1
Pexceedance = 1 − 1 −
T
Statistical Hydrology
Exceedance and Non-exceedance
1
Pexceedance = 1 − Pnon −exceedance = 1 − 1 −
T
Probability of Non-Exceedance
(of T-year rainfall MAY NOT OCCUR in a series of N years)
N
1
Pnon −exceedance = 1 −
T
Statistical Hydrology
1.If the probability of exceedance is 0.5%,
Answer: 200 years
the return period is?
2.If the Return Period is 50 years, the
Answer: 98%
probability of non-exceedance is?
3.The probability that a 50 year return period
Answer: 55.43%
daily rainfall to occur within 40 years is?
Example: Probability of Rainfall
The probability of a 50 year return period to 1
N
occur within the next 30 years is? Pexceedance = 1 − 1 −
T
30
1
𝑃 =1− 1−
50
𝑃 = 0.4545 or 45.45 %
Example: Probability of Rainfall
The probability of a 100 year return period N
not to occur within the next 60 years is? 1
Pnon −exceedance = 1 −
T
60
1
𝑃 = 1−
100
𝑃 = 0.5472 or 54.72 %
Frequency Analysis
• Once a distribution has been selected and its
parameters estimated, then how do we use it?
• Chow proposed using: xT = x + KT s
where fX(x)
xT = Estimated event magnitude x
KT s
KT = Frequency factor
1
P ( X xT ) =
T = Return period T
x = Sample mean
s = Sample standard deviation xT x
Probability Distributions
Normal family
• Normal, lognormal, lognormal-III
Generalized extreme value family
• EV1 (Gumbel), GEV, and EVIII (Weibull)
Exponential/Pearson type family
• Exponential, Pearson type III, Log-Pearson
14
Frequency Analysis
• For each distribution, estimate of rainfall event follows this form
• In this course: examples are xT = x + KT s
(a) Normal, (b) Log-normal, (c) Gamma, and (d) Gumbel
xT = Estimated event magnitude fX(x)
KT = Frequency factor x
KT s
T = Return period P ( X xT ) =
1
x = Sample mean
T
s = Sample standard deviation xT x
Sample Data: Quezon City
Estimate 50 and 100 year annual daily rainfall… using several methods
Plotting Procedure
1. Rank the data from largest (m = 1) to smallest (m = n)
2. Assign plotting position to the data
a. Plotting position – an estimate of exccedance probability
b. Use Pexceed = (m)/(n + 1) -> based on Weibull (most common)
c. Get return period T = 1/Pexceed
d. Determine reduced variate (yT)
e. Plot the data against (yT) 1
y = − ln − ln1 −
T
T
Plotting Procedure – probability assignment
• Most plotting position formula are represented by:
𝑚−𝑏
𝑝 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 =
𝑛 + 1 − 2𝑏
where b is a parameter
• b = 0.5 Hazenʼs formula
• b = 0.3 Chegodayevʼs formula
• b=0 Weibullʼs formula -> most common!!!
• b = 3/8 Blomʼs formula (normal)
• b = 1/3 Tukeyʼs formula
• b = 0.44 Gringortenʼs formula (extreme value type I)
Example: NORMAL
• Get mean and standard deviation of annual max rainfall
• Choose return period (T) and get its
xT = x + KT s
probability of non-exceedance (Pnon-excd)
• Estimate frequency factor using =NORMSINV(Pnon-excd )
in excel or consult a table of normal distribution 1
Pnon −excd = 1 −
T
• Evaluate XT (rainfall magnitude with return period T)
Example: NORMAL
Frequency Factor KT
Probability of Non-exceedance
Other Probability Distributions
1. LOG-NORMAL
2. Gamma
3. Gumbel
In this lecture, these will not be discussed in detail and will not be
included in any computational assessments.
Example: LOG-NORMAL
• Get mean and standard deviation
of logarithm of of annual max xT = x + KT s
rainfall log10(R)
• Choose return period (T) and get 1
(Pnon-excd) Pnon −excd = 1 −
T
• Estimate frequency factor using
=NORMSINV(Pnon-excd ) in excel or consult a
table of normal distribution
• Evaluate XT (rainfall magnitude with return
period T) then actual XT is…
converting back from logarithm actualX T = 10 X T
Example: LOG-NORMAL
mean and stdev
1
= 1 −
Pnon −excd
T xT = x + KT s actualX T = 10 X T
Example: GAMMA
• Get mean, standard deviation, and 1
skewness of annual max rainfall Pnon −excd = 1 −
• Choose return period (T) and get its T
probability of non-exceedance (Pnon-excd)
• Estimate frequency factor
using GAMMA K Table
• Evaluate XT (rainfall magnitude xT = x + KT s
with return period T)
Example: GAMMA
Example: GAMMA
1
Pnon −excd = 1 −
T
mean and stdev
xT = x + KT s
KT=f(T and skewness)
Example: GUMBEL
• Get mean and standard deviation
of annual max rainfall
• Choose return period (T) and get its
probability of non-exceedance 1
(Pnon-excd) Pnon −excd = 1 −
T
6s
• Estimate alpha using: =
• Estimate u using: u = x − 0.5772
• Estimate Reduced Variate (yT) 1
yT = − ln − ln1 −
• Estimate XT… T
xT = u + yT
Example: GUMBEL
mean and stdev
1
Pnon −excd = 1 −
T
6s
=
u = x − 0.5772
1
yT = − ln − ln1 −
T
xT = u + yT
Example
ANNUAL Maximum Daily Rainfall (mm)
Reduced Variate (unitless)
Another Example
1. Use the standard plotting procedure to generate 2. Estimate 30, 50, 100, and 200 year annual daily
its Reduced Variate vs. Actual Recorded Rainfall rainfall… using several methods
Use these TABLES: fill-out !!!
Show sample calculation for
T=100 years ONLY!!!
Example 1: NORMAL
In a data set of annual maximum rainfall with average of 250mm and standard
deviation of 40mm, the probable rainfall with 60 year return period is?
1
xT = x + KT s 𝐾𝑇 = 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑣 1 −
60
𝑋𝑇 = 250 + 𝐾𝑇 40 𝐾𝑇 = 2.128
or the value
will be given…
Example 1: NORMAL
In a data set of annual maximum rainfall with average of 250mm and standard
deviation of 40mm, the probable rainfall with 60 year return period is?
1
xT = x + KT s 𝐾𝑇 = 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑣 1 −
60
𝑋𝑇 = 250 + 𝐾𝑇 40 𝐾𝑇 = 2.128
or the value
will be given…
𝑋𝑇 = 250 + 2.128 40
𝑋𝑇 = 335𝑚𝑚
Example 2: NORMAL
The data set of annual maximum rainfall in mm:
399 288 275 144 147 176 388 367 278 391
287 178 315 334 332 324 233 142 269 258
the probable rainfall with 70 year return period is?
xT = x + KT s
1
𝐾𝑇 = 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑣 1 −
70
𝐾𝑇 = 2.1893
Example 2: NORMAL
The data set of annual maximum rainfall in mm:
399 288 275 144 147 176 388 367 278 391
287 178 315 334 332 324 233 142 269 258
the probable rainfall with 70 year return period is?
xT = x + KT s 𝑥ҧ = 276.25 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠 = 83.86
1
𝑋𝑇 = 276.25 + 𝐾𝑇 83.86 𝐾𝑇 = 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑣 1 −
70
𝑋𝑇 = 276.25 + 2.1893 83.86 𝐾𝑇 = 2.1893
𝑋𝑇 = 459.84𝑚𝑚
Another Example
Estimate 30, 50, 100, and 200 year annual daily
rainfall… using several methods
Another Example
Use these TABLES: fill-out !!!
References
V.T. Chow, D.R. Maidment, and L.W. Mays (1988):
Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill Education New York
P.J.M. de Laat and H.H.G. Savenije (2002):
Hydrology – Lecture Notes, Delft, Netherlands
W. Viessman and G.L. Lewis (2003): Solutions
Manual Introduction to Hydrology – 5th Edition,
Prentice Hall, Pearson Education, New Jersey
Chong-yu Xu (2002): Textbook of Hydrologic
Models, Uppsala University, Sweden
V.T. Chow (1959): Open Channel Hydraulics, University
of Illinois, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York
USDA - NRCS (1986): Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds
TR-55, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
