Global food crisis

Author(s): Elaine Monaghan

Source: Great Decisions , 2009, (2009), pp. 65-76
Published by: Foreign Policy Association

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/43681084

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide
range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and
facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
https://about.jstor.org/terms

is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Great Decisions

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 6
Global food crisis
Higher
by Elaine Monaghan food prices
triggered riots
around the
globe . What
caused the
price spike,
and what can
be done to
ensure the
world's food
security?

Women wait to buy rice at a mobile government shop selling at subsidized rates in Dhaka , Bangladesh , April
4, 2008. The government has increased its food relief through free food distribution, food-for-work programs
and subsidized food sales to tackle the situation . AP Photo/Pavel Rahman

U.S. Midwest. Rising energy costs delivered an

U.S. conjured up contrasting images additional blow, raising transportation costs and
Until of U.S. a recently, burger-and-fries-fueledobesity
of a burger-and-fries-fueled conjured the up topic contrasting of food obesity images in the the price of fertilizer, which requires natural gas
epidemic, relatively expensive fresh fruits and to produce. Corn was increasingly used not to
vegetables and the rise of organic produce. The feed hungry mouths, but to fuel vehicles, the
narrative ran that while millions of Americans consequence of what many argue was a short-
overeat, risking diseases that are rare in less-
sighted effort to tackle climate change, though
developed parts of the world, whole populationscommentators disagree over the extent of its im-
elsewhere face hunger, malnourishment and pact. The understandable knee-jerk reactions of
even starvation. It was a view that any modern affected countries were to reduce or stop food
Westerner can remember being pointedly rein- exports, which simultaneously stimulated hoard-
forced by a parent or grandparent as he or she ing and pushed prices even higher. Some argued
picked over ice-cold peas. that market speculators betting on higher future
But beginning in 2006, that picture grew farfood costs also inflated prices, though many
economists
murkier. Riots erupted across the globe in early dispute that this had any major in-
2008 as food prices headed skyward, fueled by fluence.
ELAINE MONAGHAN
a complex myriad of influences. Corn, wheatIn the second half of 2008, prices began to is a Washington , D.C
fall, and with the onset of a global recession to-
and soybean stocks hit historic lows, with wheat based freelance journ
reserves at their lowest level in three decades. ward the end of the year, looked set to stay lower. ist and author special
However, they still remained considerably high- ing in foreign policy. S
Major producers suffered a number of climactic
has worked for The Tim
shocks, notably drought in Australia, Easterner than before the crisis began, prompting sus- (London) and Reuters ,
Europe and Ukraine (once known as the bread- picions that a structural shift in the global food Ireland, Great Britain
basket of the Soviet Union), and flooding in supply
the had taken place, resulting in forecasts that and Russia.

www.greatdecisions.org 65

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 GREAT DECISIQNS+2009

prices would simply rise again once

economies began toNominal
recover.and Real Food Prices: 1961 - 2008
Critics of the meat industry
Extended were
Annual FAO Food Price Index 1998-2008 = 100
happy to give their view a fresh air- 250

ing-people should eat more plants,

especially givenof that the production
beef and dairy require resources that
far outstrip their value as a fuel for
humans. It is a point that environmen-
talists have been making for years. In
her 2000 title, Stolen Harvest , Indian
physicist turned environmental-activist
Vandana Shiva argued that the com-
mercialization of the food supply sys-
tem and pressure from the World Trade
Organization (WTO) had robbed the
globe of a sustainable food supply, not-
ing at the same time that 70% of U.S.
grain production '61
goes to'75
'65 '70 feeding
'80 '85 '90 cows.
'95 '00 '05 '08
Prominent author and food writer Mark
YEARS
Bittman, a critic of
SOURCE: overconsumption
United Nations FAO and Orden of
LUCIDITY INFORMATION DESIGN

processed foods and meat, noted in a

late 2007 presentation
This graph shows thethat while
decline and growth world
in food prices over recent decades. The blue line ,
which is adjusted for
population had only doubled between inflation, demonstrates that prices in real terms, despite the recent
shocks, remain significantly lower than they were before the Green Revolution, putting the
1950 and 2000,crisis
meat consumption
of 2008 in a wider historical context. had
increased fivefold. Of significance was
the rise in demand
point- thefor meat
impact price among
spikes had onthat respects notheborders," invoking the
growing middle classes
the world's poor; and theof China
subsequent and
maxim that there are "only seven meals
India, one keyneed for a comprehensive
factor in lastapproach year'sbetween
to civilization and anarchy." As
price
increases. Bittman puts the noted
percentage
the problem of a stable global supply of by the charity Oxfam (which has
of ozone-depleting food in thegases played
attributable
face of increasing demand. a leading role in pushing inter-
to livestock at 18%, with farm animals
national institutions and governments
'Silent tsunami9
occupying an estimated 70%to adopt ofpolicies
the that will address the
world's agricultural land.
The price increases underlying
in the early months infrastructural problem of
While mainstream economists and of 2008 took such a path that the ex-a lack of investment in farming in poor
ecutive director of the United Nations
advocates of feeding the hungry might countries), by June of 2008, global
World Food Program (WFP), Josettefood prices had risen 83% in just three
not devote the same energy to tackling
Sheeran, spoke of a "silent tsunamiyears. A look at statistics from the
agribusiness, they do all agree on one
U.S. Department of Agriculture for
one key commodity in many develop-
ing countries- rice- tells the story. In
Vietnam, rice export prices rose from
an average of $184 per metric ton for
the 2002-2003 crop to about $300 in
the spring of 2007, before exploding to
$390 in January last year and rocketing
to a peak of $1 ,088 in May 2008. By
September 2008, the price had leveled
off to $566, but even that was more
than twice what it had been two years
earlier.
In the U.S., the cry of "You better
eat what's on your plate" took on a new
meaning for many American house-
Demonstrators form a barricade during a protest in the town of Les Cayes , Haiti, April 7, holds as the cost of food, as measured
2008. A man was killed by gunfire as demonstrators took to the streets , raising the death
toll to five in protests against rising food prices. Eduardo Munoz/Reuters /Landov by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was

I 66

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 FOOD

6.2% higher in September 2008

tal of 2 1 countries and com-
food insecurity
pared to a year earlier, burst into the American consciousness
partly because
weakness in the U.S. dollar encour- simultaneously as a domestic poverty
aged exports. Beef was up 6.1%issue andand as a national security prob-
dairy had risen 4.9% over September lem . In March 2008 , the WFP found that
2007. Vegetables were up 10.3%half andthe population of Pakistan- most
fruit, 9.2%. For most Americans,likelythat a partial refuge for Osama bin
necessitated a rejiggering of the Laden
fam- as well as a breeding ground for
ily budget. For some, it translatedanti-
intoAmerican militancy - was "food
a spike in food stamp enrollment. insecure"-
But that is, at risk for hunger.
While this does not necessarily raise
for inhabitants of the developing world
living on 50 cents a day, according theto specter of a French Revolution,
CAGLECARTOONS.COM/FREDERICK DELIGNE
as rep-
Sheeran, the inflation in food prices Sheeran reminded her audience, a
hungry man is an angry man, and in to the streets in anger at spiraling gro-
resented a "catastrophe": what choices
can a family make when most of Haiti,theirthat truism indeed made itself cery costs. In Egypt, where food prices
income goes to feeding the family?felt last year. On April 12, 2008, the had risen by 16.8% in 2007, dozens
government, barely emerging from de- were hospitalized following clashes
Riots spread, according to the Inter-
cades of economic collapse, fell under surrounding a textile mill on the Nile
national Food Policy Research Insti-
tute (IFPRI) in Washington, one of weight of spiraling prices for basic Delta, amid fury at low wages and high
the15
centers promoting modern science for like rice and beans after 10 days prices. Even Naples, Italy, birthplace
staples
of riots that pitted stone-throwing pro- of the pizza Margherita, felt the shock
poor farmers, supported by an alliance
testers against UN peacekeepers and of price increases. In late August 2008,
of 64 governments, private foundations
national police. In oil-rich Russia, in pizza chefs gave away 5,000 traditional
and international and regional organi-
scenes that would have been reminis-
zations called the Consultative Group thin-crust Neapolitan pizzas to protest
on International Agricultural Research
cent of food-deprived Soviet times had restaurants unfairly overcharging. In a
(CGI AR). They became violent in protests
a to- been allowed, thousands took microcosm of the larger problem, there
was pressure in Italy for price controls
as pasta and bread became dramati-
Ratios of Per Capita Consumption: 2005/1990 cally more expensive.

A structural shift?
. rsMjĒĒm 0.8 In the midst of the crisis, many gov-
5 1 2
ernments responded to desperate WFP
DH13EHHÍ1-0 calls for increased aid as the value of
their existing pledges and donations
Meat 24 plummeted by more than half. As of
Oct. 26, 2008, the U.S. was way ahead
in terms of donations for 2008, at $1 .9
WĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĪ-2
billion (Saudi Arabia, in second place,
Milk 3"° was at $500 million). Critics countered
MĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒĒ 1-2
that this short-term generosity stood in
■■■■■■■■■ 1-3 stark contrast to other U.S. food aid

policies. Major complaints concerned

£-• , WÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊIÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ23 the inefficient way the U.S. handles its
0.9
deliveries of food aid, its apparent in-
■■■^■¡0.8 ability or unwillingness to reduce the
- I jjjjjjj^Ml.3 amount of corn-based ethanol used to

Fruits power vehicles and its refusal to tackle

the thorny question of subsidies to U.S.
farmers.

The global food crisis proved that

a radical solution was required. Many
Vegetables 2'^ experts and organizations, including the
HHHIHHHHÍH 1-3 WFP, called for a new Green Revolu-
tion- a reference to a mid-20th century
SOURCE: International Food Policy Research Institute from United Nations FAO data
LUCIDITY INFORMATION DESIGN movement that boosted crop yields by

67 I

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 GREAT DECISIQNS+2009

4 billion from half a billion by 2050.

However, perhaps the hardest thing
to deal with, Evans argued, will be the
temptation by some to resort to hyper-
bole. Using spiraling food prices to
revive the pre-Green Revolution fear
of population growth as a way of de-
manding quick solutions to a highly
complex problem risks a self-fulfilling
prophecy. He points in particular to en-
vironmental groups who supported the
conversion of corn into ethanol before
realizing it could increase world hun-
ger. In any event, Evans notes, such talk
harks back to the 1 8th century English
philosopher Thomas Malthus, who saw
hunger as a necessary evil and force of
nature that no government could hope
Cows are fed grain at Hunter Haven Farm in Pearl City, Illinois , July 24 , 2008. With 70% to control. Apropos of which "[p]eople
of US. grain production going to feeding cows , critics of the meat industry advise people rarely make better decisions for be-
to eat more plants , since the production of beef and dairy require resources that far outstrip ing in a fearful frame of mind," Evans
their value as a fuel for humans. Terry Harris/MCT /Landov
commented.

taking time frame.

advantage Additional price pressure Evans
of innovations inalso cautioned against adopt-
seed
sharing, irrigation and
will come from energypesticides. ing an approach
costs, which are This that relies too heavily
approach- deemed at
also broadly the
expected time
to continue onto
to in- have
the promise of technological advanc-
silenced doomsday scenarios
crease. While of
the range of estimates es,
of particularly
popu- given the new compli-
lation growth inevitably
remaining available arableoutstrippingcations of rising fuel costs and global
land varies,
food supply - the
helped cropOrgani-
UN Food and Agriculture output to echoed by many
warming. In a message
grow by 117% zation
while(FAO) says
thethe world
world's
can onlyparticipants
pop-in the debate, he saw in the
ulation grew bycount on another 12%.
only Moreover,(1962-96).
90% ir-2007-2008 food-price shock an oppor-
Without rigation
another will not be the panacea of
generation it was innova-
tunity to tackle the underlying problems
tors, such as Norman Ernest
during the Green Revolution, of inadequate investment in agriculture
given Borlaug,
the
U.S. Nobel laureate in 1970 and father and government policies that had yet to
tripling over the last 50 years in demand
catch up with the realities of the age.
of the Green Revolution, many arguefor fresh water, while forecasts say the
number of people chronically short
the world cannot hope to find the key to The emergence of food as a top-ranking
of water will have risen to more than
a challenge that anticipates a growth in political issue, he wrote, provides de-
world population to 10 billion by 2050
(from the current 6.7 billion).
As the food-price crisis began to sub-
side in late 2008, food experts, fearing
a loss of attention to the problem, sus-
tained their calls for a global resolution.
Alex Evans, who is leading a project on
rising food prices, based at Chatham
House (London) and New York Univer-
sity, laid out the parameters of the chal-
lenge in an April 2008 essay. According
to the World Bank, by 2030, demand for
meat will have grown by 85% and for
food overall by 50%. At the same time,
climate-change forecasts suggest agri-
culture will suffer, particularly in Af-
rica, with the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change anticipating an in-
crease of between 40 million and 170
million undernourished people in this PETT /CARTOONISTS A WRITERS SYNDIC ATE/CARTOONWEB.COM

I 68

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 velopment
trade he
nity hope to make progress when even
form "new
sue,
the President of as
the U.S. cannot per- w
new drivers
food-aid
suade Congress to devote one quarter
Thethe
array ques
of its spending on international food o
continue to be converted to ethanol
wide, andto aid to purchases in recipient countries
a
clear on
help fill gas tanks and if market forcesrather than in the U.S.? Or should
som the
can
netic be harnessed to address the crisis,
engin world just leave it to market forces to
theor whether individual
key behavior must to
fix, accepting, perhaps rather like Mal-
change. Can the international commu-
Similarly, thus did, that hunger is a fact of life? • t

Global strains
Switzerland- despite the fact that the that are net food exporters had intro-
While aid fell callsononfertile
aid fell for fertile
groundemergency
last ground food last world was facing the biggest spike in duced bans or restrictions that contrib-
year, the crisis dragged the interna- food prices in decades. uted to the price spikes. Between April
tional community further away from Joachim von Braun, director general and May of 2008, India, Egypt, Viet-
achieving the hunger-eradication tar- of IFPRI, said that it was encouraging nam, Brazil, Cambodia and Indonesia
get enshrined in the UN Millennium that the G-8 had put global food secu- banned, suspended or restricted rice
Development Goals, agreed upon by rity on its agenda. He praised its efforts exports in an attempt to gain control of
the largest gathering of world leaders to increase food production, accelerate spiraling prices. Some countries, such
in history in September 2000. Halfway development of "second generation" as the Philippines, which decided to
to the 2015 deadline for goal number biofuels- broadly speaking, the kind strive for rice independence, took the
one- to halve the world's desperately that do not use edible foodstuffs- and crisis as a hint that they should become
poor and malnourished compared to its commitments to invest $10 billionself-sufficient.
1990 levels- only poverty reduction in food aid, nutrition interventions and The Economist (London), in May
was broadly on target. According to a social protection. However he and oth-2008, noted the folly of this tactic,
monitoring report in September 2008, ers expressed disappointment at a lackinvoking the specter of North Korea,
the number of people living in extreme of specifics. The G-8 could have frozenwhose isolationist approach has ren-
poverty fell from 42%, or 1.8 billion, dered it unable to survive without food
biofuel production, cut it or introduced
in 1990 to 26%, or 1 .4 billion, in 2005. a moratorium instead of just promis-aid. But even The Economist acknowl-
However, the percentage of undernour- ing to work with other stakeholders "toedged the complications inherent in
ished people had only declined from develop science-based benchmarks and developing a trade reform process that
20% in 1992 to 16% in 2004. Worse, indicators for biofuel production andhelps. It cited one study that showed
the report added: "The recent hike in use." He added that the $10 billion poverty would fall in 13 countries if
food prices is eroding the limited gains was all well and good, but it neededall subsidies and tariffs were removed,
in reducing hunger." The report found to be released in a "timely" mannera theory, it said, to which the World
that many countries in Sub-Saharan and it was "disappointing that no clearBank had once adhered. But under the
Africa, the Middle East and North commitments were made to specificleadership of Robert Zoellick, former
Africa were "seriously off track." As amounts." With the G-8 's talk of a U.S. trade negotiator, that philosophy
Evans, who has advised the British "global network of high-level experts"has changed- mainly due to an analy-
government, Oxfam and the WFP on and other new groupings, it was "not sis that found that higher food prices
how to tackle the crisis puts it, there's enough to simply add an unclear setled ofto more poverty. The article noted
something seriously wrong when the actors and yet more meetings. . .without Zoellick's cry that 100 million people
Earth's food supply averages out at a clear understanding and delineation were being plunged below the poverty
2,700 calories a day, yet half the world of the mechanisms for coordination." line and said the bank and others should
is starving. Lacking too, added von Braun, was "beware of sweeping generalizations
Moreover, critics have noted a sin- a sufficient connection on the part ofabout the impact of food prices on the
gular lack of concrete action emanating the G-8 between the food-security and poor," given that higher prices can
from a trio of global gatherings - an climate-change agendas. bring benefits to rural farmers. The
FAO summit in Rome, Italy, the annual There was little sign that any glob-
tensions between these different argu-
meeting of the Group of Eight (G-8) ments showed how important it was
ally unifying incentive had been forged
leading industrial countries in Toya- even in the midst of the crisis. The to get trade reform right. Many have
ko, Japan, and trade talks in Geneva, World Bank noted that 26 countries suggested that the question of cutting

69 I

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
Tļk

subsidies
allowed to
the U.S. andfarmers
European Union in
The U.S., whose subsidies fell into a rich
a major (EU) to maintain high levels
bone of lower
of agri- category of between $10 bil-
contention
Round of trade talks which entered lion and $60 billion, would have had
cultural spending and "a license to
continue dumping" commodities to
their seventh, unresolved year in 2008, in cut its ceiling by 66% to 73% - a
developing countries in times of sur-
was potentially less helpful overall than level exceeded by the $289 billion farm
cutting tariffs would be. plus. (Many development experts referbill Congress approved over President
George W. Bush's (2001-2009) veto
to the practice of exporting food from
Doha's role
rich to poor countries as "dumping" in May. Part of the anger of develop-
While many economists arguedbecause flows
thathave tended to increase ing countries was directed against the
concluding Doha could help, Oxfam
at times U.S. seeking to maintain a subsidies
of low prices and decrease at
urged caution, recalling the case
times of prices. The word is also
of high ceiling- between $13 billion and $16.4
Haiti, when in 1995, a Worldused
Bank/
as a weapon to criticize U.S. ag-billion- that was approximately twice
International Monetary Fund ricultural
program subsidies, which have beenthe level of its actual subsidies - $7
that called for rapid liberalization cut exports are priced below
so high that billion- which were depressed by the
rice import tariffs from 50% theto 3%,
cost of their production, creating higher prices that farmers were receiv-
unleashing a flood of cheap anU.S.
unfair im-
playing field for farmers in ing on the market. "When and if food
ports. Haiti consequently had to im-
developing countries.) The following prices go down, subsidies will go way
port 80% of its rice needs at month,
a timenegotiations
of on resuming the up again, and that does have an impact
skyrocketing prices - a situation that
trade talks on the markets," says Gawain Kripke,
collapsed, largely due to the
helped bring the government failuretoofits director of policy and research at Ox-
the U.S. and India to agree on
knees. "Unfortunately, there New
is a Delhi's
temp- demand for safeguards for fam America. "Saying trade is impor-
tation for trade negotiators its
tofarmers.
ignore tant is different from saying that free
Doha was intended to boost the
such nuances and use the food-price trade is important. Trade is often not
crisis in order to whip up momentum
world economy, particularly in free devel-
at all, rather it is very consciously
for a quick deal," Oxfam wroteoping countries. The outline of directed
in June a deal and strategic."
2008. It said proposals on thehad emerged
table at in July 2007, shortly
before the collapse, with a draft Food
the WTO failed to protect developing that -for- fuel challenge
countries' needs to ensure food secu- would have led the EU to cut subsi- This picture of clashing interests grows
rity and protect rural livelihoods, yet
dies above $60 billion by 75% to 85%.
even more complicated when consid-

down most of the original participants. They learned that the

men who had received the nutritious supplement during the
first two years of life earned on average 46% more, or 37%
FACED WITH THE THREAT that rich countries mighthigher if they received it during the first three years. Inter-
merely heave a sigh of relief that the immediate food-price ventions after that had no measurable impact. Women, who
shock had passed, nutrition experts fought to keep the world's
are less engaged in the labor market in Guatemala, did not
attention on the future. They argue that improving the healthdemonstrate an improvement in wages. However, in a sub-
of the living has the long-term effect of decreasing popula- sequent analysis, Hoddinott and his colleagues discovered
tion growth- one of the key stresses on food supply. that women who received the drink remained in school for
One sharp knife in the arsenal of John Hoddinott, a seniorthe equivalent of an additional 1.2 grades, achieved higher
research fellow at IFPRI, is data from a nutrition-interven-reading comprehension scores and demonstrated higher
tion study among poor, rural Guatemalans between 1969 and nonverbal cognitive ability. To Hoddinott, these findings
1977. Anyone under the age of seven was eligible to par-carried a dramatic message for people living in developed
ticipate, so the length of involvement in the study varied. Ineconomies who might doubt the value of supplying food to
papers he coauthored, the benefits of feeding children underthe less fortunate.
three well rather than leaving them to weather the impact of Another dire consequence in such times of stress is for
market-driven shifts was demonstrated. people to take children out of school so they can work-
The purpose was to show that nutritional deficiencies ina step that is rarely reversed, Hoddinott said. Taken along
early life have a lasting effect into adulthood and conse-with the results of the Guatemalan study, he concluded:
quently do not necessarily subside when an immediate crisis"The argument that we don't have to worry about this be-
passes. The nutritional intervention consisted of randomlycause prices are likely to go down doesn't hold." He added:
supplying some villagers with a drink high in energy and"People can have very short attention spans. These are prob-
vegetable proteins and supplying a less-nutritious supple- lems that really require people to stick with the solutions for
ment to other villagers, on a voluntary basis. Between 2002a long time. Sometimes what we need is less blah blah blah
and 2004, the researchers returned to Guatemala and trackedand more real action on the ground."

70

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 FOOD

ering the potential impact of biofuels,

given a huge boost by a U.S. energy
law passed in 2007 calling for an ap-
proximately 500% increase in their
output by 2022, mainly from corn and
soybeans. As Kripke explained, 40% of
the world's corn is produced in the U.S .
and one third of it was set to be con-
verted to ethanol to fuel cars in 2008.
"That's a pretty big displacement of
global food products away from corn,"
on which he said about 2 billion people
rely upon as their chief staple.
Oxfam and other development ad-
vocates blame congressionally mandat-
ed production targets in particular for
boosting food prices. However, esti-
mates of the impact that food-into-fuel
production will have on prices range
from about 3% (the White House) to A grain transport truck is loaded up with corn , harvested in the fall of 2007, in Curran ,
75% (unpublished estimates by theIllinois. An informal coalition of oil refiners , environmentalists and food processors aims
to convince lawmakers that rising output of corn-based fuel is making food more expensive
World Bank, according to Oxfam).worldwide by siphoning off livestock feed supplies and discouraging US. farmers from
Many take as their guide IFPRI's es- planting other critical crops, such as wheat and soybeans. AP Photo/Seth Perlman
timate (30%), which falls below the
middle of that range. But accordinginto fuel is driving prices up. Period." of ozone-depletion science, as saying
to Kripke, it's a moot point. "What we Also, Benjamin Senauer, a profes- that the heavy use of nitrogen fertilizer
know is that the conversion of food sor of applied economics at the Uni- on corn and European rapeseed for veg-
etable-oil diesel would have a net nega-
versity of Minnesota, has been quoted
as blaming biofuel tive effect on greenhouse gases because
production for they would produce such high levels of
390,000 additional nitrous oxide, which is 296 times more
deaths among chil- damaging than carbon dioxide. "It is
dren under five, now time for governments to respond,
with the number not with trade distortions and subsidies,
rising to 475,000but by ending the failed policies that
by 2010 if the con-have created an artificial industry that
gressional man- is emptying the stomachs and purses
date of 15 billion of the world's poor," they concluded.
gallons of corn- The academics have also turned their
based ethanol and guns on hedge funds, which they said
1 billion gallons of had contributed to the crisis by "mak-
biodiesel by 2015, ing huge bets on corn and the bull mar-
and 36 billion ket unleashed by ethanol." Others have
been more cautious about assigning
gallons by 2022,
holds true. C. Ford blame. Laurie A. Garrett, science and
Runge and Senau- health fellow, in a working paper for the
er, writing in an Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in
online supplement May 2008, claimed that nervousness
to Foreign Af- over stock and real estate investment

fairs in May 2008, had prompted shifts to commodities,

warned against the but their impact on food prices was
"green" virtues of yet to be determined, and a subject
biofuels. They cit-of review by government regulators.
ed an article by No- The Grocery Manufacturers Asso-
bel laureate Paul ciation, seeing the impact on food pric-
Crutzen, a pioneeres hurting its business, joined forces
CAGLECAKTOONS.COM/YAAKOV KIRSCHEN

71 I

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 GREAT DECISIONS+2009

4 aid' dumping is little more than a cyni-

cal grab for votes- by both parties ."
In July 2008, an important series of
recommendations emerged along sim-
ilar lines from a task force in which

i Garrett participated under the auspices

i of the Center for Strategic and Inter-

national Studies (CSIS). It received
particular attention because it was co-
i chaired by respected Sen. Richard G.
I
1 Lugar (R-IN), the corn and soybean
J farmer who has headed the agriculture
committee and instigated free-market
policies that were later overturned
under pressure from fellow farmers.
The CSIS report slammed the U.S.
aid system as a "broken, expensive,
$1.6-billion-per-year program that is
yielding declining returns at the very
CAGLECAKTOONS.COM/BOB ENGLEHAKT
moment when performance to meet
urgent new needs is most acute." It
with development shortages,advocates notedraising
in
it tends it cantotake up to six months
skew for
markets
concerns before theCongress.recipient Scott country
U. S .-procured
Faber, and
commodities should
- which
the association'sused
vice only president in an make up more
emergency.
for than 40% of WFP Using c
fed-
eral affairs, in to generatebefore
testimony supplies
local ora- toMay
reach recipients withpurcha
regional
2008 congressional
theyhearing, argue, is listed shipping,
far handling
more the and management
effective in
various factors long
influencing term. However, costs gobbling
food prices upthe the
65% of budget
Cargo Pref
before declaring ence"the Act most of 1954, in 2007.which
significant This figure is expected
mandatedto t
new factor and half
the only of all civilian
factor head affect- agency
upward. Garrett cargoes
also noted that
ing food and feedshipped prices on that
U. S theis
Government
.-flagged
under Accountabilityvessels,
Office a
was updated
the control of Congress, is the in
found 1985 to and
that transportation
sudden cover
business 75%
and significant some
increase agricultural costs had loads,
in food-to-fuel fueled a 52% drop in food
stands in t
production." way of change.aid sent overseas because freight rates
Many experts noteCritics of U.S.the
food aid welcomed had risen dramatically from 2002 to
availability
of sugar as an attempts by President Bush
alternative to to cut 2006. "This since
the
corn, shameful misuse of aid

it burns far percentage

more that goes in the formdollars
efficiently, of
but mustthey
come to an immediate

also note the food surpluses from

long-term nearly 100%end,"
impact to
of she pleaded.
using
arable 75% - though
grow Congress ultimately
land
anything to other The report
thanof the CSIS task force,
food approved
people. only a $60
for
Still, sugar-into-etha- cochaired by Sen. Robert Casey (D-
million pilot pro-
gram over four
nol producer Brazil, PA), called
years, which requires
second only tofor a doubling of emergen-
the
U.S. in ethanolthe
production, cy food relief funds to $3.2 billion and
agriculture secretary to establish
announced
in September 2008projects using
thatlocally purchased
it would big improvements
food. col- in efficiency and
laborate Garrett described Bush'sin
with Washington proposal speed
as
promoting of delivery. It also said that 75%
a "nice start,"
biofuels. In another but urged further
strange cutsof
twist to emergency
of this funds should be used to
complex set of50% trade
by fiscal yearrelations, buy locally
2009 and additional Braziland regionally, leaving only
still plans to sue the
reductions U.S.
over the at
next five the
years. 25%
In- ofWTO
the pie for U.S. -origin food
over its ethanolstead of food, poor tariff.
import shipped on U.S. carriers. It called for
farmers in develop-
$1 billion in development assistance
ing countries need tools like tractors
Killing with kindness?
and seed stock. "Congress must stop
per year
for infrastructural improve-
The food-pricepitting
crisis ininterests
the financial 2008 ments
focused
of large abroad, including seeds, fertil-
agricultural
attention on the companies against
question of the izers, rural
U.S. credit, new technologies,
food
aid, how it is food security of hundreds
delivered and who an acceleration
of millions really of efforts to reduce de-
benefits. pendence on corn and aggressive pur-
of people over the coming decade," she
wrote. "Protecting
Many economists and crop productionsuit
development in of a conclusion to the Doha Round.
advocates argueIowathat
or California
while
through such
actual
dis- Christopher
foodB . Barrett, international
torting mechanisms
aid might be necessary inof mandatory
times professor
crop of of agriculture at Cornell Uni-
acute

I 72

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 versity,
"no offers" from foreign shipowners already procured in developingpla coun-
the40% of the lingerin tries.
time, adding that the indus- "People know how to do this and
thetry had never do
opposed the idea of local
shipping it right," he said. "It saves money,
who,
purchases. Rather, there washe ensures cultural appropriateness
concern say and
no thatbenefit reduces
decoupling the law that governs delays in getting food into the
system hands of hungry people."
food aid deliveries from U.S .-produced tha He added,
on the cost of deliveries. He accused commodities and shipping would di- "So even though opponents have tried
to stack the deck, they ultimately will
the shipping and agribusiness lobbieslute congressional support for the dol-
of getting the language on the local-lar amount required to help feed the fail. It's just we'll have to wait another
purchase pilot study "rigged" so as toworld's poor- even more so in a timefive years."
render it "most likely to fail." of economic crisis. "We have A meri - Maybe in a few years, U.S. law-
However, Gloria Tosi, a maritime can-flagged vessels that were built spe- makers will have created a more eq-
consultant who has long represented cifically for this trade and they're very uitable system of food aid, Doha will
the aid shippers, disagrees. She says competitive," she said. be settled under an arrangement that
the true price differential between ship- However, Barrett believes the pilot favors farmers the world over and
ping aid on a U.S .-versus a foreign- study will prove what he and other ex- scientists will have spawned the next
flagged vessel was 15% or 16%, mostperts have argued for years about the Green Revolution, right? Perhaps, but
of which was reimbursed. She alsoinefficiency of the system, especially first there is another giant thorn in the
since two thirds of non-U. S . food aid is side of the food security crisis. •
said that month-to-month, there were

Frankenfoods
or loaves and fishes?
crop varieties are showing promise atgenetic engineering after another."
Much over of how the
over howto international
to recreate recreate the
the debate Green
Green a time when "climate-ready" crops are Hoddinott says the collective view
Revolution has focused on the questioncritical. Australian Agriculture Ministerat IFPRI is that people should keep
of improving crop yields through ge-Tony Burke, experiencing his country'san open mind. He noted for example
netic modification geared for a time ofworst drought in over a century, has re-"golden rice," a GM crop created using
changing climates . Major producers , in-marked that GM technology would begenes from daffodils and a soil bacte-
cluding Australia, Canada and the U.S .,required on a massive scale and thatrium that accumulates betacarotene in
have significant doubts about grow-it would be a "mistake" for anyonethe grain, which would theoretically
ing genetically modified (GM) crops, to think that simply reversing biofuelfuel vitamin A production in humans.
recognizing consumer fears about thepolicies would resolve the problem. Despite having the potential to prevent
creation of unnatural products, which future generations in poor countries
some, particularly in Europe, have Opposed to GM from going blind, development of this
dubbed Frankenfoods. Yet, as LugarGM crops also have some powerful and crop has been stymied by the lack of
said at the unveiling of the CSIS report,famous opponents, from Friends of the an international system to overcome
virtually all 23 countries that grow GMEarth to Prince Charles, the heir to the patent restrictions for technology that
crops are food exporters and the nearlyBritish throne. He made something of a would allow the crop to be grown. Hod-
40 states threatened by the food-pricesplash by saying in an interview in Au- dinott says developing countries should
crisis at that time were not. Since 2000,gust 2008 that the adoption of GM crops be allowed to make their own choices.
many countries, particularly in Africa,had set the world up for "the biggest "It seems completely inappropriate
have rejected or limited GM imports,disaster, environmentally, of all time." that I, as a middle-aged white guy,
including food aid, for fear of having He accused agribusiness of carrying should tell people in developing coun-
their own exports blocked by Europe.out a "gigantic experiment with nature" tries what they should and shouldn't
"The governments and people of Eu-and talked of a "nightmare vision" in eat." But the science is still patchy.
rope must understand that their opposi-which millions of small farmers were The International Assessment of Ag-
tion to safe GM technology contributesdriven from their land into unsustain- ricultural Science and Technology for
to hunger in Africa," Lugar said. able conurbations of "unmentionable" Development, a UN- and World Bank
The World Bank agrees. According awfulness. "Count me out," he said, if body, found in a report endorsed by 60
to Katherine Sierra, vice president foryou think the food security challenge countries in April 2008 that some GM
sustainable development, many GMcan be met with "one form of clever crops demonstrated yield increases of

73

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 GREAT DECISIONS»2009

and "alter all of life as we know it." and global environmentalist whose
At one of the scientific homes of concerns about population growth are
the original Green Revolution, Bor-
clear from the title of one of his books,
Outgrowing the Earth. He believes
laug's former academic base in Mexi-
co, the International Maize and Wheat
the latest food-price crisis was unlike
Improvement Center, biotechnology anything that came before it. In April
is said to have "an important role" 2008,
in he wrote that unless food securi-
promoting more stable crops "while ty was quickly restored, the number of
failing states would increase dramati-
preserving the environment." The cen-
ter's head, Thomas Lumpkin, has saidcally, "threatening the very stability of
that governments have a responsibil-civilization itself."

ity to explain the impact of high foodWarren Belasco, professor of

American Studies at the University
prices on the poor and the ability of
GM crops to help. "By denying them of Maryland (Baltimore County) and
this technology, you are keeping them
author of Meals to Come , says it is not
hungry, they are dying," he added. the first time Brown and others have
raised the specter of doomsday sce-
Mulling over Malthus narios, recalling a book that Brown
Senator Lugar, a strong proponent of wrote as a young economist arguing
the responsible use of GM technol- that the gap between grain supply and
CAGLECARTOONS.COM/ARCADIO ESQUIVEL
ogy, is certain Malthus will again be demand could only be met through
proven wrong, as he was most recently 1984. "I have the feeling that some
between 10% and 33%
by the Green inHowever
Revolution. some places,
it adjustments are probably going to be
but yield declines in whether
remains unclear others. technology Environ-
made in the market and we'll probably
mental groups often portray
will be the panacea genetic
it was during the muddle throughen-
again and food prices
gineering of the food
Green supply
Revolution, as will
whose benefits are a stabilize,"
profit- Belasco says.
driven misallocation of resources when
now being questioned by environmen- His view seems to be reinforced by
the promotion of a healthy diet wouldtalists who blame it, in part, for the the 2008-2017 outlook of the Organi-
be more constructive. "This technol-
emergence of food-supply inequity. zation for Economic Cooperation and
ogy is virtually impossible to contain," Some observers of these trends hear Development (OECD) and the FAO,
the Friends of the Earth's "GMO Ac-
a touch of false alarm in the dire pre- which found that for cereals at least,
tivist Toolkit" says, adding that GMdictions coming from, among others, "the downside risk for prices in the
organisms can cross-pollinate quickly
Lester Brown, a prominent economist future seems to be increasing." It also
noted, as demonstrated by the graph
(see p.66) supplied by IFPRI's Hod-
dinott, that once adjusted for inflation,
prices had not risen as high as they did
in 1972-74, when supply shortfalls and
major Soviet grain purchases doubled
and tripled grain prices. In fact, ac-
cording to the same analysis by IFPRI
experts in October 2001, grain prices
at the end of the last century were at a
100-year low in real terms.
Evans, in remarks to the author
and in a speech at a WFP meeting
in October 2008, strongly disputed
the OECD-FAO outlook, saying that
while its analysis concluded that pric-
es had tailed off- and in fact fallen

further since the outlook was pub-

lished (courtesy of the financial crisis
Indian model and actor Milind Soman poses during a campaign against genetically modi- that sent markets plummeting in Sep-
fied food in New Delhi , India, Oct. 16, 2008. The "/ am No Lab Rat " campaign, coinciding tember and October)- it nonetheless
with World Food Day, was launched by Greenpeace against genetically modified food being
failed to take into account the impact
allegedly tested on Indians. AP Photo/Gurinder Osan
of climate change, water scarcity and

74

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 FOOD

oil prices, which it assumed would

stay between $90 and $105 a barrel
for the next decade. "Supply funda-
mentals really aren't shifting," Evans
told me, noting that oil output has
been stuck at 85 million barrels a day
despite soaring demand. "I think the
downturn is creating a delay, and as
soon as the economy picks up again,
we'll be straight back, looking at the
same issues."

Evans says any new Green Revo-

lution will have to be considerably
"smarter" than the last one, which suc-
ceeded primarily by increasing crop
yields. The next one will simultane-
ously have to make the system much
more sustainable, requiring industry to
become a "good steward"; it will also
have to be more resilient and elastic

to withstand coming turbulence; andA Romanian farmer shows genetically modified soybeans in the village of Varasti, north
of Bucharest, May 2004 . Romania, Europe's biggest soya grower until 1989, is the sole
it must be more equitable. "The whole
producer of GM soybeans on the continent, with about 35,000 hectares under cultivation.
history of humanity is a story of how
Environmentalists accuse US. biotech firms pioneering genetically modified organisms
population has risen and in tandem (GMOs) of using poorer Eastern European countries as a backdoor to a reluctant EU.
Bogdan Cristel/Reuters /Landov
with that, generated tremendous clus-
ters of innovation. We've done it be-
Natsios took over the U.S. Agency foreldest son, at the UN General Assem-
fore and we can do it again, but we
have to get on with it." International Development (USAID) bly in September 2008. Through their
in 200 1 , Offenheiser recalled, he com-foundations, they plan on giving $75
Menu of options plained there had been 48 agriculturalmillion to small farmers in Africa and
From the individual to the institution, economists there a decade before Latin America so they can sell food
it seems there are as many potential and by 2001, they were down toaid to the WFP, a move described as
six.
answers to the food-security crisis asA similar tale of waning support a "revolution"
for by the WFP's Sheeran.
there are types of rice. Some see the investment and infrastructure is told Much of the money will go into bet-
need for a manifesto for responsible by members of CGI AR, the world- ter farming methods, high-yield seeds
eating on an individual level; others wide alliance. Emile Frison, head of and other infrastructure areas that de-

see solutions in trade agreements or Biodiversity International, another velopment advocates say are in dire
the promise of new technology. Ul- CGIAR research center, said in June need of help.
timately, most experts agree that an 2008 that the knowledge required to However the international com-

all-of-the-above approach will be re- create higher-yield harvests had been munity chooses to move forward, few
quired, and in particular, that invest- hobbled by a collapse in funding for would dispute that food security is now
ment in agricultural infrastructure and research as donors had been lulled into
inextricably linked to the questions
institutions in developing countries is complacency by the depressed foodof climate change, resource demand
essential. prices during the 1980s and 1990s, and and sustainability. For Pulitzer Prize-
Ray Offenheiser, a prominent voicerich countries had cut support for agri- winning author Thomas L. Friedman,
in the debate in the U.S. and head of culture from $6 billion to $2.8 billion writing of the need for a new Green
Oxfam America, says this is as true between
in 1980 and 2006 in inflation- Revolution in Hot , Flat and Crowded ,
the U.S. as in the rest of the world. the change will have to come fast. "We
adjusted terms. "That's one of the rea-
"When the food crisis hit, what federal
sons we're facing a food crisis now,"
are all Pilgrims again. We are all sail-
agency was responsible for evaluat-he said. ing on the Mayflower anew," he wrote.
ing whether there was in fact a global Offenheiser sees hope in the fact "This is not about the whales anymore.
food crisis?" he said in an interview. that the international community is It's about us." •
"The answer is, there was none. So now tackling the problem head on,
they send food aid in the short term,notably through the World Bank and
but there's no one there to think about the project announced by Bill Gates
^ ^^rOPINION
AFTER PAGE 64
the long-term issue." When Andrew and Howard Buffett, Warren Buffett's

75 I

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms
 gnu ESTIONS
1. What distinguishes the 2007-2008 How does this affect the policies of
food-price shocks from prior food-price developing countries?
increases?
6. How large a role do you believe the
2. How has the increased worldwide corn-into-ethanol production in the
demand for resources such as oil affect- U.S. played in the recent rise in food
ed food prices? Do you think climate prices? Do you believe that the cur-
change has affected food prices? rent ethanol mandates are a practical
3. Should the U.S. move forward with policy? If yes, why? If no, what would
CSIS report recommendations, which possible alternatives look like?
stipulate that 75% of food aid should be
purchased locally or regionally? What NOTES:

are the benefits or problems with such

policies?
4. When food prices spiked, riots broke
out in many poor countries. Do you
think "food insecurity" in other coun-
tries poses a threat to U.S. national se-
curity?
5. Why have some countries been so
reluctant to embrace GM crop technol-
ogy? Is this a sustainable approach?

njE
Belasco, Wa
with tales of individual success stories from Wisconsin to sustain-
Food. Unive
able agriculture activists in France.
per). Belasco
Paarlberg, Robert, Starved for Science: How Biotechnology Is
County, giv
Being Kept Out of Africa. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University
and history
Press, 2008. 256 pp. $24.95 (hardcover). With a foreword by Jimmy
Carter and Nobel laureate Norman E. Borlaug, Paarlberg argues that
Friedman, T
Green Revo
rich countries are keeping agricultural science out of the hands of
poor Africans, having already benefited
Farrar, from it themselves.
Stra
well-known
Patel, Raj, Stuffed and Starved: Markets, Power and the Hidden
winner's
Battle for the World Food System. London, eng Portobello Books,
ingglobal w
2007. 438 pp. $29.95 (hardcover). This former World Bank, World
among the
Trade Organization and UN employee investigates the global food w
market and argues it works only for corporate executives.
Hunnicutt,
Greenhaven
Shiva, Vandana, Stolen Harvest: The Hijacking of the Global
series aimed
Food Supply. Cambridge, MA, South End Press, 2000. 150 pp.
and educatio
$14.00 (paper). Formerly one of India's leading physicists, this
winner of the Alternative
Lappé Franc Nobel Peace Prize delivers a tough case
For A Smal
against the impact of globalization on farming and the environment
(paper). Pro
that portrays the World Trade Organization as tyrannical and firmly
her opposed to genetic engineering.
daughter

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS TOPIC AND TO ACCESS

WEB LINKS TO RESOURCES GO TO www.greatdecisions.org/t

76

This content downloaded from

35.145.5.106 on Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:16:21 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms