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Flash 2Q24 Thai GDP Growth Improved To 2.3% YoY

Flash 2Q24 Thai GDP growth improved to 2.3% YoY

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Theophilus Uran
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16 views3 pages

Flash 2Q24 Thai GDP Growth Improved To 2.3% YoY

Flash 2Q24 Thai GDP growth improved to 2.3% YoY

Uploaded by

Theophilus Uran
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© © All Rights Reserved
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M Gmail ran paiaruang Fwd: Krungsri Research Flash: 2024 Thai GDP growth improved to 2.3% YoY. Given this momentum and latest political development, we are likely to maintain our cautious growth outlook. 4 san tran panjaruang 11 usa 2567 909 23:08 fs: parjaruang uran@gma.com ansildons “r, Krungee Research Flash: 2Q24 Thai GDP growth improved to 2.3% YoY. Given this momentum and latest political development, we are likely to maintain our cautious growth outlook, Key event: 2Q24 GDP growth improved to a S-quarter high of 2.3% on a year-on-year basis, but a quarter-on-quarter slowdown implied growth momentum failed to strengthen, ‘The NESDC officially reported that Thailand’s 2Q24 GDP grew by +2.3% year-on-year (YoY), slightly above expectations by the market (+2.1% in a Reuters survey) and Krungsri Research (11.9%). However, on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, GDP growth slowed to +0.8% in 2Q24 from +1. Which is close to the expectations by the market (+0.9% in a Reuters 1% in 1924, rch (40.7%), uurvey) and Krungsti Res ‘The NESDC has maintained its 2024 GDP growth forecast at 2.5 forecast to the range of 2.3-2.8% from 2.0-3.0% median, They also adjusted the range in May. in their previous forecas Jovernment consumption and exports picked up in 2Q24 after a contraction in 1Q24. However, private consumption growth slowed down, and private investment contracted. In 2Q24, an improvement in GDP growth (on a year-on-year basis) was driven by a slight rebound in government consumption (+0.3% YoY vs -2.1% in 1Q24), a modest increase in goods exports (+1.9% vs -2.0%), and a drop in goods imports (-1.0% vs +4.3%6). Private consumption continued to expand but at a slower pace (+4.0% vs +6.9%). Private investment contracted (-6.8% vs +4.6%). T Js suggests that overall economic recovery remains uneven, On the supply side, 2Q24 GDP growth mainly came from a further expansion of s +3.6%), a slight rebound in manufacturing (+0.2% vs -2.9%) and accelerating growth of mining (+13.2% vs 4.8%). A less severe contraction was seen in agriculture (-1.1% vs -2.7%) and construction (-5.5% vs «17.3%. rviee sectors (+3.1% vs Thai GDP growth (%) ‘Components of Thai GDP growth mmm % yoy —O-%q0q 5.2. 44 ee 2.3 exate consumption 18441716 2.4 RISI™FRIAI FSF x YJ _imponot goods 16 43 10 at 33 a g i Importof senices 78 94 66 66 17 Source: NESOC sere {GDP growth by expenditure (YON) —_ stan sam a2 1 ie commpien ——Couumpeon ere ever a" = “a er - 4 . 4 a * s * Supplysde GDP data (YON) —_—_ =_— potas Mntacuee Seve vise, uss es pitts, RSS SE a a “ - * « ot * * Krungsri Research's view: Given 2Q24 GDP data and recent political developments, we are likely to maintain our forecast at 2.4% Looking forward, Krungsri Research expects Thai economic growth to improve to close to 3% in the second half of this year from 1.9% in the first half. ‘The key drivers are (i) a further recovery of tourism sector and (ii) a speeding up of public spending after a delay in approval of FY2024 Budget Bill to late April, Private consumption and private investment outlook will rely on the coming economic policy and confidence about new government. Regarding recent political development, so far we see limited impact on the overall Thai economy this year given (i) the rapid transition of power, starting with the election of PM Paetongtam on August 16, and expectations of a new cabinet this week that would align with the agreement made by the coalition parties under Srettha’s term; (ii) possibility of continuation of most recent economic policies; and (iii) likelihood that this should not disrupt the Grafting and approval of fiscal year 2025 Budget Bill (THB3.75 tm). On this note, we are likely to keep 2024 GDP growth projection at 2.4%, excluding Digital Wallet program, which might be adjusted to avoid legal Given improving growth and rising inflation, we maintain that the MPC will keep policy rate at 2.50% throughout 2024, However, we will closely monitor lingering risks stemming from the political scene, unpredictable issues, and potential legal challenges in the periods ahead, ‘Subscribe to Krungsri Research's products | Unsubscribe from this product list Access to krungsti Research Intranet homepage or Krungsri Research homepage. For any inquiry, please contact us at skrungsr.research@krungsri.com.

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