Thailand2020
Apirak Kosayodhin
Advisor to Prime Minister of Thailand
Thailand has significantly
g
y changed
g in the p
past 20 yyears
Improved quality of life and a shift away from agriculture
Econom
mic
Exports of G&S (% of GDP)
Agriculture/ GDP
Industry/ GDP
Services/ GDP
GDP per head ($ at PPP)
Net Direct Investment flow/ GDP
33.01
14.71
36.05
49.24
2,240.00
1.79
75.70
10.80
45.80
43.40
8,340.00
2.90
238.60
0
33.80
66.20
43,490
123.20
111.50
9.70
44.40
45.90
14,110
43.90
Mortality rate, under -5 (per 1,000)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
School enrollment, primary (% net)
Income shared held by lowest 20%
N/A
68
N/A
5.00
8
70
94.2
6.10
3
80
781
49
12
74
99
54
Agricultural land (% of land area)
Energy used (kg of oil equiv/ capita)
Electric power consumption (kWh /
capita)
42.00
637
562
36.40
1,588
1,988
1.2
7,056
8,507
24
2,389
3,262
En
nviron
mental
m
1988
Social
Singapore Malaysia
2008
2008
Thailand
2008
Note: World bank, EIU
1 UNESCO data from 2002
What awaits Thailand?
Comparison
p
to selected countries
Countries with similar profile are up
to ~10x wealthier than Thailand
Potential to triple per-capita income?
$ at PPP
40,000
Nominal GDP (USD bn)
4,000
2,000
20,000
2,592
2,064
687
0
France
Italy
South Korea
268
194
194
Thailand
Malaysia
50
78
8,340
14,110
France
It l
Italy
South Korea
Th il d
Thailand
M l
Malaysia
i
Domestic sectors may grow in
importance
% of GDP
26
72
3
40
11
10
Agriculture
46
44
Industry
200
France
100
58
43
46
Italy
South Korea
Thailand
Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic size
Source: EIU 2008 data
Malaysia
It l
Italy
South Korea
Service
0
France
26,400
Percentage of GDP
20
31,360
Nominal GDP
Sector mix may need to be shaped
100
35,100
Thailand
Malaysia
Competitiveness - Overall
Thailand more competitive than Philippines and Indonesia,
but lags behind Malaysia
IMD 2008 Ranking in selected Asian
countries
Economic
performance
IMD 2005-2008 Overall Ranking
Worst
60
Ranking
60
Malaysia
y
improved
p
ranking
g from
22 to 19 while Thailand ranking
lowered from 25 to 27
50
Indonesia
Philippines
Th il d
Thailand
Malaysia
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
40
40
30
20
Infrastructure
Worst
10
0
Best
Government
efficiency
Worst
20
Singapore
0
2005
Hong Kong
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
Indonesia
Worst
Business
efficiency
2006
2007
2008
Competitiveness - Strengths
Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living
and healthy environment for employment
IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths
Healthy
environment
for
employment2
(24)
High
Appropriate
consumption
tax rates
(22)
Gap in ranking
a
g bet
between
ee
overall IMD index of
Thailand with subfactor
(+101)
score
Low inflation
and cost of
living
(23)
Key strengths Thailand
can leverage
Economic performance
Mgmt
practice
(8)
Government efficiency
Business efficiency
Attitudes
and values
(7)
Infrastructure
High
Low
Low
1.
2.
Factor
F
t effect
ff t on ability
bilit off Thailand
Th il d to
t develop
d
l
High
sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity
Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report
2008
Healthy environment for employment contains fair compensation level, high employment rate and high labor force number and business friendly regulations
Competitiveness - Weaknesses
Infrastructure and business efficiency
identified as major weaknesses of Thailand
IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses
High
Low GDP
per capita
(-21)
Low direct
investment
stocks abroad
(-20)
Low
productivity
& efficiency
(-21)
Insufficient
health
quality2 (-20)
Tech low
penetration
of internet
users
(-16)
Gap in ranking between
overall IMD index of
(-101)
Thailand with subfactor
score
Highest priority
gap
to address
Insufficient
education
quality
(-16)
Insufficient
scientific
infrastructur
e (-10)
Economic performance
Societal
framework
((-9)
9)
Finance:
bank
efficiency
(-4)
Government efficiency
Business efficiency
Public
finance
( 2)
(-2)
Basic
infrastructu
re
(-2)
Business
legislation
High
(-2)
Infrastructure
Low
Low
Factor
F
t effect
ff t on ability
bilit off Thailand
Th il d to
t develop
d
l
sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity
High
1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008
2. Weakness in low number of care providers
Several mega-trends with high relevance on
Thailand's
Thailand
s future development
People
1
Aging society
Urbanization
Health &
safety concerns
IInternational
t
ti
l
mobility
C
Connectivity
ti it
Environment
6
Climate changes
Scarcity and deteriorating
quality of resources
Business
8
Shifting economic
leadership to Asia
Stronger focus on
governance
SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several
opportunities for action
Competitiveness analysis
Mega-trend analysis
Strengths
Opportunities
Central physical location
High-quality service
Sufficiency and diversity of
agricultural
g
resource
Low inflation & cost of living
Healthy environment for
employment
Aging society (developed
countries)
International mobility
Connectivity
y
Shifting economic leadership
to Asia
Health and safety concerns
Weaknesses
Threats
Insufficient scientific
infrastructure
Low
L
productivity
d ti it and
d
efficiency
Insufficient education quality
Insufficient health quality
Aging society (Thailand)
Climate change
Scarcity
S
it and
dd
deteriorating
t i ti
quality of resources (water,
energy, food, soil)
Urbanization
Strong
St
focus
f
on governance
Source: NESDB 2570 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis
Strategic focus
"What Thailand
should be known for"
Strategic pillars
"How Thailand
should operate"
operate
Strategic
foundation
"What Thailand
needs to have"
Potential 2020 vision for Thailand
Transformation from commodity supplier to high value, branded, green economy
High
value-added economy
Strategic Focus
1 World's food supplier
Leader
in creative products
2
3 Magnet for cultural & eco-tourism
high-value added services
4 Regional logistics hub
" What Thailand
should
h ld b
be kknown
for"
Strategic pillars
"How Thailand
should operate"
Foundation
"What Thailand
needs to have"
Open
economy
y
with high
social
mobility
Alternative
energy &
green
technology
Culture of
tech/
entrepreneur
-ship &
excellence
Knowledge
& creativity
based
communities
World-class
work ethics
&
governance
High quality physical & technological infrastructure
High quality & wide access to social services
Sufficiency & sustainable resource management
Prudent fiscal & monetary policy
Transformation towards sustainable
higher value green economy and well
well-being
being society
National agenda is key to drive transformation
Thailand Today
Thailand 2020
Commodity products / OEM
Higher value-branded products
Basic use of rich cultural
heritage in commercialization
of products and services
Cultural
C
lt
l tourism
t
i
and
d heritageh it
based product / services
Add value
Basic infrastructure
Build brand
Drive GDP Growth
Invest in
infrastructure and
green energy
Leverage Thai
heritage
g
Higher-quality
Hi
h
lit physical
h i l and
d
technological infrastructure
Sustainable
S
t i bl development
d
l
t/
well-being society
Thailand2020
Apirak Kosayodhin
Advisor to Prime Minister of Thailand
