Photo from Getty Images 1423318321

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution

Transformer Demand
Context increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events,
and utility-driven investments to improve the reliability and
Distribution transformers, used to step-down medium- resiliency of the electricity distribution system.
level voltage to service-level voltage for end-use electrical
consumption, are currently experiencing an unprecedented Introduction
imbalance between supply and demand. Utilities are
The majority of distribution transformers are owned by the
experiencing extended lead times for transformers of up
more than 3,000 municipal, cooperative, and investor-owned
to 2 years (a fourfold increase on pre-2022 lead times), and
utilities across the United States. Some transformer capacity is
reporting price increases by as much as 4–9 times in the
privately owned by large commercial and industrial customers
past 3 years [1-3]. Current shortages have been attributed to
(approximately 20% of the total number of transformers,
pent-up post-pandemic demand; difficulty recruiting, training,
according to historical estimates [4]) and is used for on-
and retaining a skilled workforce; component supply chain
site electrical distribution. The Code of Federal Regulations
challenges; and materials shortages (grain-oriented electrical
defines distribution transformers as those that have an input
steel, aluminum, and copper). The supply of transformers is
voltage of 34.5 kV or less, an output voltage of 600 V or less,
critical for the reliability and growth of the power system.
and a capacity of 10–2,500 kVA [5]. For consideration here,
Additionally, supply chain issues, if not resolved, may also
we examine transformers up to 5,000 kVA, given the trend
impact climate goals with respect to the electrification of
of increasing capacities due to electrification and revised
demand and the growth of renewable energy. This report
definitions in proposed rules [6]. We also loosely interpret
summarizes the initial analysis conducted by the National
input and output voltages, given the trend of bidirectional
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supported by the
power flow due to distributed energy resources (in particular,
U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity and
solar photovoltaics). In our analysis we consider step-up
Office of Policy, to assess the long-term drivers of demand for
transformers, used for renewable energy resources and
distribution transformers.1 Expected demand increases are
most battery energy storage applications, because these
due not only to a confluence of electrification and renewable
transformers share many of the same properties, supply
energy growth, but also to aging electric infrastructure,
1
DOE is committed to working with the power sector, manufacturers, and appropriate federal partners to identify actions that can help ease the supply-demand mismatch in distribution
transformers. This had included using the convening power of the U.S. Government to help identify solutions in the public and private sector that can create a more reliable supply chain for
distribution transformers to meet current needs and the expected demand in the future. The distribution transformer demand study is the one of the recommendations that resulted from this
collaborative discussion.
 chains, and manufacturers as distribution transformers. The disaster [11]). A recent estimate by a utility in Massachusetts
insights from this report are a result of initial NREL analysis and estimated that 35% of their stock was more than 30 years old
extensive interviews with major U.S. transformer manufacturers [12]. Transformers are expected to last more than 20 years at
and utility representative organizations—Edison Electric nameplate loading [13], but in practice, transformers with low
Institute, American Public Power Association, the National Rural loading conditions and mild temperatures can last for more
Electric Cooperative Association—and their members. than 50 years [14].

Current Characteristics of Stock The loading capability of transformers is another critical

element in understanding how much load growth these
An accurate understanding of the current stock of distribution assets can accommodate. Transformer rating is dynamic and
transformers is critical to understanding drivers of future a function of their thermal loading (temperature), which is a
demand. This involves understanding the quantity of function of the current flow through them, the duration of
transformers currently deployed, the capacity of these assets, high current flow, ambient temperatures, and solar insolation
asset aging, and loading profiles. There is a lack of quantitative gain. The transformers loaded at nameplate capacity are
data on the number and capacity of distribution transformer said to be loaded at 100%, but these assets can facilitate
stock currently deployed in the country. Data collection is loading of up to 200% for brief periods with little impact on
challenging because it involves understanding the assets of life expectancy or insulation degradation [4]. The overloading
more than 3,000 distribution utilities and privately owned (i.e., loading above 100%) that a transformer can absorb is a
transformers. Reports from the last major study of national function of ambient temperature conditions, loading profile,
inventory in 1994 estimated the stock at more than 50 and the duration and magnitude of the overload. Repeated
million transformers (for both utility and privately owned and long-duration overloading (>125%–150%) will ultimately
transformers) with more than 2.3 TW of utility-owned installed reduce the life of a transformer and raise the probability of the
capacity [4]. Initial NREL estimates for current stock range from device failing.
60 to 80 million transformers with upwards of 3 TW of installed
capacity. The high-level analysis in this report includes a Demand Drivers and Key Trends
number of assumptions about the volume and capacity
Transformer demand is driven by several elements that can
of the existing stock by leveraging U.S. Energy Information
be broadly categorized as replacement of existing stock
Administration Form 861 datasets, Federal Energy Regulatory
and demand growth. Replacement is driven by a range
Commission Form 1 data, and specific data from individual
of mechanisms, including aging and overheating, short-
utilities [7], [8]. We anticipate further analysis will revise the
circuiting, random failure mechanisms, and extreme weather
number and capacity of the current stock.
events. Demand growth can result in the need for active
A key aspect of assessing the current stock is the age of the replacement of deployed assets (i.e., due to loading increases)
assets. There is a broad consensus among utility engineers or new assets dedicated for new customers.
that the majority of the transformer stock is reaching the end
NREL is developing analysis capabilities to examine future
of designed life. However, little data are available on actual
transformer demand, which will be the subject of future
transformer age. The age of the current stock is estimated
analysis and reporting. We are examining multiple trends
from building stock age (from both the Residential Energy
that will raise both the current rate of transformer stock
Consumption Survey and Commercial Building Energy
replacement and new customer growth. We are building
Consumption Survey) [9], [10]. The 1990s and early 2000s
a demand model to examine how device failure, proactive
saw major building growth in the United States, but there
replacement, and new growth will impact annual transformer
has been relatively less construction since the economic
stock growth. An overview of the model is provided in Figure 1,
downturn of the late 2000s, likely resulting in less stock that
which was used for limited analysis in this report, and will be
is younger than 10–15 years old. However, individual utility
the focus of future work.
stock is highly heterogeneous. Whereas some utilities will
have older stock (e.g., DTE Energy in Detroit estimate the The current modeling effort is being expanded to provide
average age of their substation transformers at 41 years, with refined non-coincident peak demand analysis, examine
a typical life expectancy of 40–45 years), major investments climate impacts and extreme weather events on transformers,
in storm recovery have led to other utilities having a relatively and build out thermal life models. To date, the work has
modern fleet (e.g., ConEdison in New York City lost more focused on characterizing the major drivers of transformer
than 900 distribution transformers in Hurricane Sandy in demands, for which preliminary findings are itemized below.
2012 and have invested $1 billion in grid resilience since the

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand 2

 Energy Information
Initial
Administration Form 861,
Transformers
1990-2021
Capacity, Initial Year
Energy Consumption, Peak
Loading, and Annual
Demand, Number of
Ages Growth in
Customers
Add Transformers for New Customers
Customers
Energy Information Estimate Initial
Energy
Administration Residential Distribution
Information
Energy Consumption Transformer Stock Calculate Effective Age of Administration,
Survey (RECS) - Building Age and Loading Transformer Based on AEO Building
Stock Age Increased Loading Stock Growth
Increment Year
Increment Weibull
Energy Information Loading Calculate Failure Rate
Failure
Administration Commercial Based on Effective Age of
Function
Buildings Energy Transformers
Assumptions (ORNL, 1995)
Consumption Survey
(CBECS) - Building Stock on Peak-to-
Age Average and Assumptions
Calculate Resized
Diversity on Utility
Transformer Capacity
Factors Resizing
IEEE PES Subcommittee
on Distribution
Estimate % of Failed
Transformers – Loading
Capacity Refurbished and
Distributions
Redeployed
(Limited Number of Estimate Non-Coincident
Utilities) Peak Demand per Customer,
Estimated On-Premise EV
Charging vs. Dedicated
Infrastructure No Final
Year?
NREL Electricity Futures
Study – Standard Assumptions on
Scenarios Yes
Peak-to-Average and
Diversity Factors
Stop
Under Electrification

Figure 1: Overview of a preliminary transformer demand model developed at NREL. The model uses data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration [7]-[10], NREL’s Standard Scenarios [15], Weibull failure functions [4], and IEEE Power and Energy Society Subcommittee on
Distribution Transformer loading estimates [16] to examine annual transformer demand by state and by sector (e.g., residential, commercial,
industrial, and transportation). The analysis is being refined to include transformer thermal life models, extreme weather impacts, refined
demand analysis, and climate data to examine temperature impacts.

Increasing Capacity Needed for of up to 230%, 193%, and over 400% [12], [17], [18].
Additional insights into demand drivers from electrification
Electrification include:
• Our preliminary estimates for the overall capacity of – Increased load due to electrification is a result of
distribution transformers that will be needed to serve increased electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electric
economywide demand (i.e., residential, commercial, cooking, among other drivers. Demand growth for the
industrial, and transportation) indicate an expected residential sector across states is highly heterogenous;
160%–260% increase compared to 2021 levels due to the largest increases in demand are expected in cold-
electrification (driven in part by the Inflation Reduction climate states where both electric vehicle adoption and
Act). These estimates are based on initial analysis of the adoption of heat pumps will likely significantly drive
potential non-coincident peak demand that would need demand.
to be served by distribution transformers, considering
– Trends in growth due to commercial and industrial
economywide electrification demand from the Electricity
sectors warrant more examination. Utilities are realizing
Futures Study Moderate electrification scenario [15].
growth in data center loads, and an expected increase
More work will be required to refine these analyses to
in U.S. manufacturing driven by domestic national
estimate demand based on diversity factors, weather-
security policies related to semiconductor (i.e., the CHIPS
driven peak demand, and nameplate of electrification
Act) and electric vehicle manufacturing will also drive
loads. Critical uncertainties include charging rates and
privately owned transformer demand.
management of EVSE in the future. Utility investment
– Recent NREL work analyzing the need for charging
plans and state demand forecasts are also highly regional
ports estimates 26.8 million privately accessible Level
and heterogeneous. Large variations are evident in utility
1 and Level 2 charging points would be required
system peak load forecasts, even within the same state,
at single-family homes, multifamily properties, and
for example the three major investor-owned utilities in
workplaces by 2030 [19]. Charging capacity depends
Massachusetts with forecast 2050 peak demand increases
on the installed capacity of Level 2 charging points

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand 3

 Demand for transformers for EV charging stations is set to increase. Photo from Getty Images 1421282386

(e.g., 6, 12, and 18 kW have been used), but considering photovoltaics could (at medium adoption levels)
sole adoption of 6-kW Level 2 chargers, an estimated provide relief to transformers by reducing midday
125 GW of charging port capacity is required. Much demand. In contrast, EV night charging will erode
of this load will likely be connected to existing the thermal relief that these assets typically gain in
transformers and will require a combination of lighter loading periods. Future work will quantify
transformer replacement and the splitting of load these benefits in more detail by using loading pattern
across new transformer capacity. An estimated analysis on thermal life models for transformers.
182,000 publicly accessible fast-charging ports along
highway corridors and in local communities will Routine Replacement and
require dedicated transformers (estimated 45 GW of
direct-current fast charging port capacity). Additionally,
Aging Assets
1 million publicly accessible Level 2 charging ports • Utility routine transformer replacements, both due to
(estimated 6 GW of charging port capacity) will likely failure and active resilience investments, will benefit
require dedicated transformers. from future-proofing asset sizing to accommodate
electrification load growth and avoiding future overloads.
– Transformers are designed to accommodate increased
From preliminary NREL analysis, by 2050, 60–80% of service
loading for limited periods. In some situations, this extra
transformers will have been replaced through routine
built-in capacity could absorb some of the increase
replacement. If utilities upsize capacity rather than practice
due to electrification. In such cases, the transformers
like-for-like replacement, routine replacement can be used
are expected to run until failure. However, using up
to help gradually accommodate electrification. Proactive
this “extra capacity” due to loading from electrification
transformer load management programs can also be used
is expected to increase the rate of transformer failure
to extend the life of existing assets by adding transformers
in these situations, particularly post-2030. Loading
(rather than outright replacement) and transferring/
patterns will likely play a critical role in the life of
splitting load onto new assets to accommodate growth.
transformer assets. For example, distributed solar

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand 4

 loading that will be caused due to electrification. Active
utility engagement in customer EV charging programs can
help manage demand, which can reduce the replacement
rate and oversizing of future transformer capacity. Accurate
load forecasting can assist in least-regret transformer sizing
for load growth to ensure transformers are sized sufficiently
for the lifetime of the asset and facilitate load growth from
electrification.
• Transformer load management programs can enable
utilities to produce more accurate forecasts and active
assessments for transformer replacement, split loads
onto new assets, and manage transformer maintenance
and loading. Utilities can leverage advanced metering
infrastructure and geographic information system asset
databases to estimate the thermal loading of transformers.

Demand from Extreme

Weather Events
• The increasing frequency and severity of extreme
weather events and longer-term trends in climate are also
expected to increase transformer demand. Historically,
hurricanes, storms, wildfires, heat waves, blizzards, and
high-wind events have caused significant damage to the
transformer stock. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
damaged 12,600 transformers in Entergy’s Louisianna
service territory alone, and Mississippi Power lost around
Accelerated growth in wind and solar generation will require a 2,300 transformers [20]-[22]. The need for replacements
corresponding supply of step-up transformers. Photos from Getty Images,
top: 1406020186, bottom: 1284482079
caused by hurricanes, based on reporting from large
utilities, we estimate was more than 1% of the annual
– With increased focus on equity-driven programs, transformers shipped [23]. While the demand resulting
customers with historically smaller-amperage from these events can seem low in terms of overall
connections could see proactive programs to increase transformer demand, it can represent a massive volume
their service connection, which may drive proactive of infrastructure for an individual utility. For example, 65%
upsizing and increases in demand. (This concept of Mississippi Power’s power delivery system was down or
of “minimum level of services” is currently being damaged after Hurricane Katrina. More recent major events
considered at several state utility commissions). have included Hurricane Laura in 2020 (Entergy identified
4,760 damaged transformers), Hurricane Ida in 2021 (nearly
Load Metrics and Utility Programs 6,000 transformers damaged in Entergy’s service territory),
• We note a need to develop demand factors and diversity and Hurricane Idalia in 2023 (Suwannee Valley Electric
metrics that could be used to inform distribution planning Cooperative in northern Florida identified 354 damaged
decisions for transformer sizing along with surveying to transformers) [24]-[26]. There is an overall lack of data
reduce the uncertainty on the volume of capacity and from non-hurricane events (e.g., lightning strikes, wildfires,
the loading of existing assets. Electrification load metrics winter storms, etc.), and lack of available data from smaller
will help distribution planning engineers adequately size utilities, which challenges efforts to quantify the total
assets to avoid replacing them before end of life due to volume of equipment damage from weather events.
undersizing and to avoid creating unnecessary cost burden • Extreme temperatures increase customer demand,
on rate-payers from the risk of heavily oversizing assets. which in turn raises the loading stress on transformers
• Proactive utility customer engagement and programs and reduces transformer operating efficiency and life
can help utilities understand and manage the increased expectancy. For instance, as unusually hot days are
becoming more common in summer, the air-conditioning

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand 5

 demand is driven up. This prolonged heavy loading
and high ambient temperature overheat transformers,
Changing Requirements for
increasing the risk of failures. In July 2006, a heat wave in Transformers
California caused widespread outages due to transformer • Demand for smaller transformers (e.g., 10 or 15 kVA)
failures. In Northern California, 1,150 PG&E distribution is expected to decline as electrification increases load
transformers failed, and 860 transformers malfunctioned in growth. For example, in interviews, 25 kVA has been
LADWP’s service territory [27]. implemented by some utilities as a new default minimum
size rather than 10–15 kVA [29], [30].
• Pole-mount transformer demand is expected to decline
relative to pad-mount transformers as utilities increase
their undergrounding and resilience programs. Many
utilities have extensive undergrounding programs for
storm resilience, wildfire mitigation, and community
aesthetic preferences; some have adopted the practice
of undergrounding all new medium-to-high load density
service. Estimates from 2012 developed by Edison Electric
Institute estimated that roughly 18% of their members’
distribution systems were underground [30]. There are
pushes to move more of the network underground to
improve grid reliability and resilience. PG&E has a major
program that plans to invest in undergrounding 10,000
miles of their network (approximately 10% of their system)
by 2026 [31].
– For specific service territories where the risk of utility
equipment starting wildfires is expected to increase,
we expect increased demand for dry-type transformers
as replacement for oil-filled pole-mount transformers
[32]. For flood resiliency, demand will increase for
submersible transformers, transformers with less
corrosive steel, and corrosion-resistant paint.

Step-Up Transformers for

Renewables
• Step-up transformers, required for wind and solar
generation, share many of the same characteristics of
distribution transformers in terms of voltage classes
and capacity. These assets are required for both bulk-
system connected generation as well as large distributed
generation plants (e.g., multi-MW solar farms connected
to the distribution primary system). Step-up transformers
for interconnecting renewable plants will add significant
orders to manufacturers; up to 2 TW of step-up transformer
demand of sizes ranging from 0.5 to 5 MVA will be required
by 2050.

While pole-mount transformers account for the most orders of

transformers by numbers [23], pad-mount demand is expected to
increase as utility investment in undergrounding and resilience
programs increases. Photos from Getty Images, top: 1388647482, bottom:
152264156

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand 6

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Authors: Killian McKenna, Sherin Ann Abraham, Wenbo Wang

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15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by
303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
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