Micro-Cap Investment Guide 2024
Micro-Cap Investment Guide 2024
How
to be a
micr cap
master
A guide to spotting micro-cap winners
I
n 1996, Arsenal Football Club
was far from its glory days of Movement across various
the 1980s and in search of a market-cap categories
new direction. Despite Prepared for 15 10-year rolling periods starting
numerous high-profile candidates from Mar 2000-10 to Mar 2014-24
being in the mix, then-Vice Count (%) Average 10Y return (%)
Chairman David Dein made the Initial/Final Micro Small Mid Large
bold choice of appointing Arsène
55.7 8.0 0.2 –
Wenger, a Frenchman with no Micro
11.3 40.3 73.6 –
prior experience in English
football. Critics were sceptical as no 8.0 15.9 3.5 0.3
Small
foreign manager had previously -6.9 16.3 35.2 50.2
won the Premier League. The 0.2 1.7 2.8 1.5
media’s response was encapsulated Mid
-25.1 -2.3 15.5 27.7
in headlines like ‘Arsène Who?’
0 0.1 0.5 1.7
But Dein was firm that Wenger’s Large
revolutionary approach to football -36.5 -19.8 -0.9 14.8
and fitness would lead them to Count (%) represents the average percentage of
success. So, he took a risk that few companies moving from one market cap category
to another
were willing to take, and the rest,
as they say, was history. Wenger Illustrations: ANAND
guided the club to three Premier name suggests, are relatively small among any category. To put that
League titles, including a historic businesses and fraught with risks. into perspective, an investment of
unbeaten season, and revamped the But it offers fortunes to those who `1 lakh would compound to
club into a global powerhouse. dare. For instance, micro caps that `2.5 crore at this return rate!
The market, like the game of went on to become mid caps gave So, should you channel your
football, is also known to reward an average 10-year annualised inner David Dein and take a punt
risk-takers. Micro caps, as the return of 73.6 per cent, the highest on these stocks? The answer to that
depends on your risk appetite. years, micro caps have secured a than not focus on a single business
We can, however, give you three 17 per cent annualised operating and sell fewer products, and thus,
reasons why micro caps entice even profit growth, higher than both are relatively easy to decipher.
the wiser investors: large and mid caps. The rewards of early discovery: Retail
Sky-high growth rates: You may have Simplicity: Are you comfortable investors must spot promising
heard the last stretch is always the investing in a business you do not businesses before the broader
toughest. This applies to fully comprehend? Most are not. market to reap the highest return.
businesses, too. Matured businesses Conglomerates especially are In other market cap categories, the
struggle to grow after reaching a infamous for leaving investors dizzy. odds are against retail investors, as
certain scale, as few growth Take Reliance Industries, for they have to compete with
avenues remain unexplored. Micro example. The conglomerate institutional investors. Micro caps,
caps, on the other hand, are encompasses a staggering 255 however, are a domain institutional
budding businesses. The legroom companies. The sheer scale alone is investors seldom traverse. So, the
for growth is immense, and hence, enough to deter any attempt to playing field is fairer, and the
these stocks usually exhibit analyse the company. Micro caps are return potential is higher.
exponential growth. In the past five the mirror opposite. They more often
D
avid Dein’s gamble on City. Echoing Wenger’s early FY20 66.7
Wenger underscores that critics, pundits predicted Bradley’s
FY21 47.9
going against the lack of Premier League experience
FY22 36.0
consensus has its rewards. would be his downfall.
However, consensus – whether in Unfortunately, unlike Wenger, FY23 37.3
football, the financial markets or Bradley’s efforts to defy these Average 39.6
life, often harbours kernels of truth. expectations fell short, resulting in Based on returns calculated on a five-year basis at
And not every challenge to the a tenure of just 85 days. the end of each financial year
status quo results in success. In the financial world, a similar
Consider the case of Bob narrative unfolds. Micro caps are
Bradley, who in 2016 became the deemed risky because they are. For An analysis of historical data
first American to manage a every tale of meteoric rise, there are reveals a telling trend: a significant
Premier League team, Swansea numerous others of decline and loss. portion of micro-cap investments
A FAIR methodology
The Ian Cassel way to select promising micro caps
F
– Find
I
t is hard not to mention Ian Cassel, however, has a time-tested
Cassel and micro-cap investing How do you find stocks that are solution: Brute force screening.
in the same breath. The inherently obscure? Sounds like Brute force is self-explanatory.
renowned investor has made a needle in a haystack problem. Ian You dive into the haystack head-on
the microcap world his home for and find the needle. Go through the
over 20 years. Perhaps his most micro-cap universe, one company at
lasting contribution is the founding a time. However, the vastness of the
of MicroCapClub in 2011, a micro-cap universe makes this
community where seasoned micro- method unfeasible. So, the trick is to
cap investors can share insights and first run a screener based on set
strategies. Yet, it’s his development criteria to reduce the ocean of stocks
of the FAIR methodology that stands to a pond. Then, apply brute force till
as his most seminal work, offering a you land on a potential investment.
robust framework for identifying However, innovation plays a
high-promise micro-cap investments. crucial role in making this strategy
To learn about this methodology effective. For instance, if you filter
from the master himself, visit: companies on generic criteria such
https://tinyurl.com/2dy7jdpz. as growth rates of 20 to 30 per cent
Given Cassel’s impressive and operating margins of around
contributions, we delved deeper and 20 per cent, you’re likely to end up
develop our interpretation of the with the same list as many other
FAIR methodology. Here’s our take. investors. This results in a low
probability of finding a company
with promising potential at an z Robust execution: The particularly given the limited
attractive valuation – most will be management must be reliable with exposure micro caps have in
fairly valued or overvalued. The key a record of executing its mainstream media. This stage
to staying ahead is to innovate by plans successfully. involves direct engagement with
employing a more nuanced filter z Strong leadership: In a small the company’s management,
that not only identifies companies company, the quality of leadership suppliers and customers to verify
that are currently performing well can be a make-or-break factor. The the authenticity of its public
but also those with the potential for leadership must be invested in the disclosures and the viability of its
future success. This approach business. Cassel says, “I never business model. For retail
enables you to discover potential want to invest in a business whose investors, such an extensive
investments at attractive valuations, management doesn’t have to network might be out of reach,
giving you a competitive edge. live with the consequences of underscoring the value of
A
their decisions.” communities like the
– Analyse MicroCapClub. Hence, building a
Analyse the company before community of investors with
investing in it. While it may Cassel’s FAIR methodology shared interests provides a
sound obvious, note that analysing Find significant competitive advantage
micro caps is no walk in the park. z Screen for future winners in micro-cap investing.
z Go through companies one at a time
R
A simple Google search will not
help. You will not find information Analyse – Research
in any weekly newsletter. The only z Read everything the company releases Micro caps inherently are
way out is to go old school. You z Watch out for red flags nascent businesses. Over the
must dive into every bit of public z Look for a track record of good years, as the company evolves, it is
execution
disclosure available. possible that the factors you based
Now, the question is how to fast- Interact your investment case on are rendered
z Analyse whether customers and
track the process. For that, Ian mute. This dynamic nature of micro
employees are happy
Cassel suggests arriving at a ‘no’ as z This is where you can develop an edge caps necessitates a continuous
quickly as possible. For example, if re-evaluation of investment choices.
Research
you spot a company with a history of z Evaluate your original thesis periodically Hence, Cassel advises investors to
financial fraud, you may put that z Over the long term, key variables change conduct maintenance due diligence
company to bed and move on. periodically. These should include
Here’s a checklist you can use to revisiting the points that made you
reject companies. If any company z Healthy balance sheet: Without initially select the company and
has these traits, you should tread adequate cash and consistent profits, staying in touch with the
with caution: no business can survive in the long management or experts you may
z No revenue, no cash-flow term. Ensure that the company has have consulted in your initial
conversion, etc. remained profitable and does not analysis of the stock. Maintaining
z Past frauds have a history of overtly relying these qualitative relationships
z Significant related-party on debt. is crucial to the maintenance
transactions unrelated to z Healthy culture and customer due diligence.
the business relationship: Cassel believes a healthy Ian Cassel’s FAIR framework has
z Shady auditors work culture and strong customer guided several micro-cap enthusiasts
z Messy capital structure relationships are the two most to success. The sheer popularity of
Once you eliminate the red flags, rewarding assets of a company. his MircoCapClub underscores that
you must check if the remaining However, these factors are difficult his investment philosophy is
companies possess the key to assess and require groundwork. replicable and rewarding. So, are
I
ingredients for growth. These you ready to brute force a screener
ingredients may vary across sectors – Interact through the micro-cap universe?
and businesses. However, here’s a Interaction is a critical step in Our Ian Cassel-inspired screener
broad checklist you can use: the FAIR methodology, might just help you with that.
W
isdom is hard to narrowed it down to 59 companies.
quantify. Is it possible EBITDA of at least 65 per cent. To identify the top candidates, we
to replicate Warren z Profitable and positive CFO further applied two qualitative
Buffett’s uncanny in at least four out of the last filters: a) A growing industry and
stock-picking abilities through five years. b) relatively detailed disclosures.
some quantitative filters? The z Five-year median ROCE of at The latter ensured that our final
straightforward answer is no. least 10 per cent. list had companies that an average
But there is always room for z Five-year annual growth investor could analyse. Our final
inspiration, meaning we can in revenue, operating profit list, after applying these two
incorporate some qualities of and profit after tax of at least filters, had 10 stocks.
popular investors into our own 10 per cent. We adjusted profit To validate our quantitative
strategies for selecting stocks. after tax for exceptional items. methodology, we compared the
So, inspired by Ian Cassel’s z Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 times performance of these stocks
FAIR style of investing, we made a or lower to avoid companies with against the BSE SmallCap index
methodology to pick promising highly leveraged balance sheets. across five periods. Our selected
micro caps. Note that no method z Promoters’ stake of at least stocks outperformed the index in
can guarantee success, especially 30 per cent. This ensures that the four out of these five periods! Even
when dealing with micro caps. owners have skin in the game. in the period it lagged the index, it
However, our approach will set z Institutional stake of at most gave eye-popping returns.
you on the right path. 5 per cent, a trademark of So, let’s dive deep into these
Here are the filters that define relatively obscure stocks. 10 promising micro caps and
our methodology: Initially, 718 companies met our understand their businesses.
z Market cap between `200 crore market capitalisation criteria. Note that these are not our
to `1,000 crore. After applying all filters, we stock recommendations.
Recent returns as of February 29, 2024 Price data and Stock Rating as of February 29, 2024. Profit after tax is adjusted for exceptional items.
T
itan Biotech plays an market remains its primary
indispensable role in the daily breadwinner, with 69 per cent of
lives of millions in India. It is 4 the revenue originating from
25
one of the leading Indian domestic operations.
manufacturers of biological Looking ahead, peptone is
products used in a diverse array of poised to remain a key growth
industries, including TTM Dec 2018 TTM Dec 2023 driver. According to its annual
pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, report, the peptone market is
food & beverages and cosmetics. Its primary growth target starting anticipated to expand by
biggest competitive advantage is its FY21. The revenue contribution 12 per cent annually until 2030.
expertise in manufacturing peptone from peptone grew to 54 per cent in Nevertheless, the company faces
(used in the production of enzymes, FY23 from 25 per cent in FY21. challenges, notably its lengthy
vaccines, antibiotics and more) and Simultaneously, contributions cash conversion cycle of 128 days.
microbiological culture media (used from chemical products shrank to In addition, its valuation is
in pharma, food & beverages). 24 per cent from 57 per cent. It also expensive. It trades at a P/E of
Peptone, especially, has been a garnered several global clients, 19 times, more than twice its
game-changer for the company. and revenue from exports has five-year median P/E.
The company spotted the potential compounded 21 per cent annually
of this bioproduct and made it its since FY21. However, the domestic
PREVEST DENPRO
Y
ou don’t have to be a large forayed into the lucrative US and
cap to be a global leader. Canada markets and expanded its
Prevest Denpro is one of the 16 capacity to cater to the additional
world’s largest dental materials demand. Second, the extra capacity
3
manufacturers, with a portfolio has enabled Prevest Denpro to
encompassing adhesives, broaden its product portfolio and
composites, cement, liners, FY19 TTM Dec 2023 manufacture oral hygiene and oral
endodontics, orthodontics care products.
and more. R&D facility in India. In addition, But no micro cap is without
It established its global it is the first Indian dental risks, and Prevest Denpro is no
dominance by focusing on product manufacturer to get ISO exception. The dental material
portfolio and quality. The company certification and has also received industry is highly competitive.
caters to every dental product a approvals from the Saudi and US In addition, it draws 60 per cent of
dentist may require through its FDA. It has also partnered with its revenue (FY23) from exports
diverse product offerings. Also, its 12 dental universities. and has to compete with global
focus on R&D has helped it ensure The management expects giants. Moreover, the US and
quality and compete with larger incremental growth in the coming Canada, geographies it deems as
players. Notably, Prevest Denpro years based on two major key growth drivers, are teeming
was the first company to set up an developments: First, it has recently with large players.
Compounding on cables
B
oasting an experience of Profit after tax 34 from 0.5 in March 2023 to 0.04 in
over 35 years, Dynamic 21 September 2023. It also trades at
Cables manufactures an expensive valuation. with a
conductors and cables. Its primary P/E of 28 times, around 2.7 times
breadwinner is low-tension cables, the five-year median.
accounting for around 91 per cent However, the cable segment is
of its revenue (FY23). It boasts a FY19 TTM Dec 2023 marked by intense competition.
high-profile clientele, including In addition, the segment suffers
BHEL, Tata Power, Siemens, etc. zoomed to 8.2 per cent from from volatile raw material costs
Dynamic Cables’ strategic 4.9 per cent during the and demand. Moreover, a
decision to shift its focus from same period. significant amount of business
conductors to the high-margin The management is confident originates from the government,
cable segment helped it compound that rising capex from the public which may pose a threat.
its topline in recent years; the and private sectors will drive Apart from the structural
revenue share of the conductor growth in the coming years. issues, high trade receivables are
business has declined to around It boasts an impressive order book also a concern for the company.
4 per cent in FY23 from of `521 crore as of December 2023. Debtors as a percentage of
38 per cent in FY18. Concurrently, In addition, it has successfully revenue has remained above
its operating profit margin has reduced its debt-to-equity ratio 25 per cent since FY16.
D.P. WIRES
INFOBEANS TECHNOLOGY