Current GDP Growth Rate 7.
30%
Estimated Next Year 7%
Valuations Q1FY22-23
36.85tr
The Indian automobile sector contribute 7.5% to Indian GDP
and is estimated to contribute about 12% coming years.
India achieved its highest passenger vehicle export number in 8 year that is 5,76,000.
Last year figure was 4,40,000 units in FY21.
Chip shortage fared better than last year
Source
IMF,MOODY, FITCH
FY22
annual production 22.93 millions
2021 2027E
market valued 32.7 54.84 CAGR = 9%
2025E
The electric vehicle 7.09
A study by CEEW 206$ billion oppo
2026E
export of vehicles 5,617,246.00
2 key players in this space are,
1. MARUTI SUZUKI - Holds 42.75% market share in the passenger vehicl
2. TATA MOTORS - Holds 42.23% market share in commercial ve
PEER Comparison between M&M, Maruti Suzuki & Eicher motors,
Maruti Suzuki M&M Eicher motors
Market Cap ₹ 263,618 Cr. ₹ 154,454 Cr ₹ 99,218 Cr.
Net profit 3,880 Cr. 2,608 Cr. 1,677 Cr.
Stock P/E 59.4 19.2 48.4
Average Industry PE 47.6 (NIFTY AUTO)
Risks faced by Automoblie sector,
Shortage of semiconductors
Higher interest rates
Higher Crude oil prices
CAGR = 9%
y by CEEW 206$ billion opportunity for electric vehicles in India by 2030
e are,
share in the passenger vehicles segment in FY22.
market share in commercial vehicles in FY22.
Category: Sub-segment Models
A:Mini Alto,Celerio,
Baleno, S-PressoDzire
A:Compact lgnis, Swift,Tour S, WaqonR
Mini + Compact Segment
A:Mid-Size Ciaz
Total A: Passenger Cars
B:Utility Vehicles Ertiga, Gypsy, S-Cross, Vitara Brezza, XL6
C:Vans Eeco
Total Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sales (PV)
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) Super Carry
Total Domestic Sales (PV•LCV)
Sales to other OEM
Total Domestic Sales (Domestic + OEM)
Total Export Sales
Total Sales (Total Domestic + Export)
April-September
2021-22 2020-21
102,322 76,666
298,246 230,656
400,568 307,322
7,095 4,805
407,663 312,127
135,079 77,306
50,350 34,256
593,092 423,689
12,716 7,841
605,808 431,530
22,420 6,116
628,228 437,646
104,927 32,083
733,155 469,729
GROWTH 56%
2018 2019
Sales - 48,686 53,614
Sales Growth % 10.51% 10.12%
Profit before tax 6,102 6,325
Net Profit 4,356 4,796
10.10
EPS in Rs 35.04 38.58
VALUATION MODEL Years 2017
Gordon growth model Dividends(in Rs) 13
Dividends Growth
Average Growth rate 1.48
r(ke)=rf+beta(Rm-Rf)
6.35 RF
1.02 BETA
14% RM
ke=14.1529% COST OF EQUITY
Gordon growth model Rs.92
Vo=D1/r-g
Peers P/E
Suzuki 59.37
Price multiple Tata -11.13
Average Peers P/E 24.12
Market Capitalization Value 147,731
EPS of M&M 39.7
Price to Earnings * EPS = Fair price of M&M
957.564 -1000.98 Range
Discounted Model PAT22 PAT23E
4,935 5428.5
ke=14.153%
Pat22/(1+r)^n Pat23E/(1+r)^n
1.141
4,325 4169.35
Tota Value 12588.57
Value per share 106.67
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 in FY22-24E on new product launches, EV
45,488 44,630 57,446 65,285 73,296 product development, healthy order book
-15.16% -1.89% 28.72% 13.60% 12.27%
3,116 2,303 6,235
1,331 984 4,935 5428.5 6079.92
-72.25 -26.07 401.52
10.7 7.92 39.7 46 51
2018 2019 2021 2022 2023E
7.5 8.5 8.75 11.55 11.72
-42.31 13.3 2.94 32
RISK FREE RATE
MARKET RETURN
COST OF EQUITY
Lakh Cr.
41.5
Pat24E
6079.92
Pat24E/(1+r)^n
4094.2
product launches, EV
t, healthy order book
