Basic concepts of probability

Experiment: a measurement process that produces quantifiable results(e.g.

throwingtwo dice, dealing cards, at poker,measuring heights of people, recording
proton-proton collisions)
Outcome: a single result from a measurement(e.g. the numbers shown on the two dice)
Sample space: the set of all possible outcomes from an experiment(e.g. the set of all
possible five-card hands)

In this chapter we consider discrete, mainly finite, sample spaces.

An event is any subset of a sample set (including the empty set, and the whole set).
A simple (or single) event is an event with a single outcome (only one "answer"). ... A
compound event is the combination of two or more simple events (with two or more
outcomes).
A simple (or single) event is an event with a single outcome (only one "answer").
Simple Probabilities (with only one outcome (desired result)):
• The probability of rolling a 3 on a die. (1/6)
• The probability of drawing the ace of hearts from a deck of cards. (1/52)
• The probability of tossing a head with a penny. (1/2)

In a simpleevent, the numerator ("number of times it can occur") will be 1.

A compoundevent is the combination of two or more simple events (with two or more
outcomes).
Compound Probabilities (with more than one outcome (desired result) within a trial ):
• The probability of rolling an even number less than 5 on a die. (2/6)[Even
numbers {2,4,6}; less than 5 {1,2,3,4}; both {2,4}]
• The probability of drawing a red ace from a deck of cards. (2/52)[red card {26
cards}; ace {4 cards}; both {red ace of hearts, red ace of diamonds}]
• The probability of rolling an even number on a die, then tossing a head
onpenny. (3/12)
• The probability of drawing a heart, replacing the card, then drawing a spade.
(169/2704)
• The probability of tossing three pennies and getting at least 2 heads. (4/8)

Two events that have no outcome in common are called mutually exclusive events.

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Equally Likely Events: are events that have the same chance of occurring Probability. Chance
that an event will occur. Theoretically for equally likely events, it is the number of ways
an event can occur divided by number of outcomes in the sample space.

Counting principles:

Rule of Product: If there are ‘m’ ways to do something and there are ‘n’ ways to do
another, then the total number of ways of doing both things is,

N=mxn

To elaborate this with an example, assume that you have 4 T-shirts and 2 Jeans. The
total number of ways in which you can decide what to wear is

N = 4 x 2 = 8.

The logic is pretty simple. With every T-shirt, you have a choice between the two Jeans.
This is illustrated below:

Choices of dress: S = {T1J1, T1J2, T2J1, T2J2, T3J1, T3J2, T4J1, T4J2}

In general, if a composite outcome can be described by a procedurethat can be broken

into k successive (ordered) stages such that there are
n1 outcomes in stage 1,
n2 outcomes in event 2,
…
nk outcomes in event k
and if the number of outcomes in each stage is independent of the choices in previous
stages and if the composite outcomes are all distinctthen the number of possible
composite outcomes is
N = n1 x n2 x … xnk
e.g.
Suppose the composite outcomes of the trio (M, P,C) of class values for cars, where
M denotes the mileage class (M1, M2, or M3)P denotes the price class (P1, or P2)
C denotes the operating cost class (C1, C2, or C3). The outcome is clearly written as a
3-stage valueThere are 3 outcomes in class M, 2 in class P and 3 in class C. The
number of outcomes in class P does not depend on the choice made for M, etc. Then
there will be,
N = 3 x 2 x 3 = 18 distinct composite outcomes for car classification.

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When the number of composite outcomes is relatively small, the counting can also be
done via a tree diagram as illustrated in the Fig.. Such a method is
tedious and is much less efficient than using the multiplication principle.

The sample space for the above example is then given as:

{ |}
M 1 P1 C 1 , M 1 P 1 C 2 , M 1 P1 C 3 , M 1 P2 C 1 , M 1 P 2 C 2 , M 1 P2 C 3 , M 2 P1 C 1 , M 2 P 1 C 2 , M 2 P1 C 3 ,
S= M 2 P 2 C 1 , M 2 P2 C2 , M 2 P2 C 3 , M 3 P1 C 1 , M 3 P 1 C 2 , M 3 P1 C3 , M 3 P2 C1 , M 3 P2 C 2 , M 3 P2 C 3 , .
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Rule of Sum: If there are ‘m’ ways to do something and there are ‘n’ ways to do another
and we cannot do both at the same time, then there are ‘m +n’ ways to choose one of
the actions.

Example: assume that you have 5 Formal Shoes and 3 Cowboy Boots. The total number
of ways in which you can decide your footwear is,

N = 5 + 3 = 8.

The logic is pretty simple. You can either wear Formal Shoes or Cowboy Boots but not
both. The choices are illustrated below.

Choices of footwear: S = {FS1, FS2, FS3, FS4, FS5, CB1, CB2, CB3}

In general; If there are

n1 outcomes in event A1,

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 n2 outcomes in event A2,
…
nk outcomes in event Ak,
Andthe events A1, A2, … Ak are mutuallydistinct (share no outcomes in
common),then the total number of outcomes in A1 U A2 U … U Ak is

N = n1 + n2 + … + nk.

Exercise.
An outcome of an experiment consists of an operator using a machine to test a type of
sample.
If there are 4 different operators, 3 different machines, and 8 different types of samples,
how many experimental outcomes are possible?

Remember: When dealing with probability (especially compound probability), a tree

diagram will give you a visual representation of what is happening.A tree diagram will
show you the solution.

Examples using the counting principle:

Let's say that you want to flip a coin and roll a die. There are 2 ways that you can flip a
coin and 6 ways that you can roll a die. There are then 2x6=12 ways that you can flip a
coin and roll a die.

If you want to draw 2 cards from a standard deck of 52 cards without replacing them,
then there are 52 ways to draw the first and 51 ways to draw the second, so there is a
total of 52*51 = 2652 ways to draw the two cards.

Sample Spaces

A listing of all the possible outcomes is called the sample space and is denoted by the
capital letter S.

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The sample space for the experiments of flipping a coin and rolling a die are:

S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.

The fundamental counting principle allows us that there are twelve ways without having
to list them all out.

Principle of Permutation
A permutation is the number of ways of choosing and arranging objects from a total of objects,
order being important.
The two key things to notice about permutations are that there is no repetition of objects
allowed and that order is important.

n!
nPr=P ( n , r ) =
( n−r ) !

n: total number of objects to choose from

r: number of objects you are actually using.

Since a permutation is the number of ways you can arrange objects, it will always be a
whole number. The denominator in the formula will always divide evenly into the
numerator.

Examples of permutations:

Example 1: List all permutations of the letters ABCD

ABCD BACD CABD DABC
ABDC BADC CADB DACB
ACBD BCAD CBAD DBAC
ACDB BCDA CBDA DBCA
ADBC BDAC CDAB DCAB
ADCB BDCA CDBA DCBA

Now, if you didn't actually need a listing of all the permutations, you could use the
formula for the number of permutations. There are 4 objects and you're taking 4 at a
time.

n!
nPr=P ( n , r ) = where n = 4 and r = 4
( n−r ) ! ,

4! 4 ! 24
4P4 = = = =24
( 4−4 ) ! 0 ! 1

This also gives us another definition of permutations. A permutation when you include
all n objects is equal to n!. That is,

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 nPn = P(n,n) = n!

Example 2: List all three letter permutations of the letters in the word HAND
HAN AHN NHD DHA
HNA ANH NDH DAH
HAD AHD NAH DAN
HDA ADH NHA DNA
HND AND NAD DHN
HDN ADN NDA DNH

Now, if you didn't actually need a listing of all the permutations, you could use the
formula for the number of permutations. There are 4 objects and you're taking 3 at a
time.

P3 = 4! / (4-3)! = 4! / 1! = 24 / 1 = 24.
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Principle of Combination
A combination is the number of ways of choosing objects from a total of objects,
considering that order does not matter.
In discussing discrete sample spaces, it is useful to use Venn diagrams and basic set
theory.
Therefore, we will refer to the union (A U B), intersection, (A ∩ B) and complement
(Ᾱ) of events A and B.
We will also use set-theory relations such as A ∪ B= A ∩ B(Such relations are often
proved using Venn diagrams). This is also called De Morgan’s law; another half of De
Morgan’s law is: A ∩ B= A ∪ B

Question 1: You have 4 T-shirts, 2 Jeans, 6 Sarees, 5 Formal Shoes and 3 Cowboy
boots. In how many ways can you decide what to wear?

The answer for this is (4 x 2 + 6) x (5 + 3) = 14 x 8 = 112 ways.

Question 2: You have 50 students in a class and you have to select three out those for
the posts of President, Vice-President and General Secretary. In how many ways can
you do that?

The President can be any one of the 50 students. Suppose you choose X.
The Vice-President can be any of the remaining 49 students (Not X). Suppose you choose Y.
The General Secretary can be any of the remaining 48 students (Not X or Y).

So, the total number of ways in which you can decide the students for the positions are
= 50 x 49 x 48.

Question 3: In how many ways can you select and arrange ‘r’ items out of ‘n’ distinct
items?

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The 1st item can be selected in ‘n’ ways.
The 2nd item can be selected in ‘n – 1’ ways.
The 3rd item can be selected in ‘n – 2’ ways.
The rth item can be selected in ‘n – r + 1’ ways.
So, the total number of ways of selecting and arranging ‘r’ items out of ‘n’ distinct items is:

n x (n-1) x (n - 2) … (n – r + 1)

As you can realize, this is a difficult formula to remember. To take care of the same,
multiply (n-r)! to both the numerator and the denominator.

[ n∗( n−1 )∗( n−2 ) … ( n−r +1 ) ]∗( n−r ) !

⇒
( n−r ) !

n∗( n−1 )∗( n−2 ) … ( n−r +1 )∗( n−r )∗( n−r−1 ) … 3∗2∗1
⇒
( n−r ) !

n!
⇒ , This formula is the formula for Permutation P.
( n−r ) !

n!
⇒ nPr =
( n−r ) !

Question 4: In how many ways can you arrange ‘r’ items?

The 1st item can be selected in ‘r’ ways.

The 2nd item can be selected in ‘r – 1’ ways.
The 3rd item can be selected in ‘r – 2’ ways.
The rth item can be selected in ‘r – (r – 1)’ ways or simply put, 1 way.
So, the total ways of arranging ‘r’ items is:

Question 5: In how many ways can you select ‘r’ items out of ‘n’ distinct items?

From Question 3, we know that the number of ways of selecting and arranging is n P r.
From Question 4, we know that the number of ways of just arranging is r!
Selecting and Arranging are independent decisions, so

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The above equation not only gives us the formula for n C r, but it also gives us a very
important relationship

n P r = n C r x r!

Notions:
The probability of an event, E written as P(E), (read as the probability of event E) is
always expressed by a number between 0 and 1inclusively; i.e. for any event E, we
must have:
0 ≤ P(E)≤ 1
Where
P(E)=0 Impossible event (non-occurrence event)
P(E)=1 Surely occurring event
0< P (E)< 1 Probability of occurrence of an event somewhere between 0 and 1.

The classical definition of probability (classical probability concept) states that:

If in an experiment there are n equally likely outcomes, and if an event E can happen in
m of these outcomes, then:
m n (E )
P ( E )= = , where, n(E): number of events
n n (U )
n(U): number of elements of the sample space
(U: Universal set)
Example:
From the classical definition, we see that the ability to count the number of outcomes in
an event, and the number of outcomes in the entire sample space (universal set) is of
critical importance.

Relative frequency
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Relative frequency
The relative frequency of an event is defined as the number of
times that the event occurs during experimental trials, divided by
the total number of trials conducted.

The relative frequency is not a theoretical quantity, but an experimental one.

We have to repeat an experiment a number of times and count how many
times the outcome of the trial is in the event set. Because it is experimental,
it is possible to get a different relative frequency every time that we repeat
an experiment.

EXAMPLES 1: RELATIVE FREQUENCY AND THEORETICAL

PROBABILITY

1. While watching 10 soccer games where Team 1 plays against

Team 2, we record the following final scores:
Trial
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Team 1
2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 3

Team 2
0 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0

What is the relative frequency of Team 1 winning?

In this experiment, each trial takes the form of Team 1 playing a

soccer match against Team 2.

Count the number of positive outcomes

We are interested in the event where Team 1 wins. From the table
above we see that this happens 3 times.

Compute the relative frequency

The total number of trials is 10. This means that the relative frequency
of the event is
3/10=0,3
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2. A die is tossed 44 times and lands 5 times on the number 3.
What is the relative frequency of observing the die land on the number
3? Write your answer correct to 2 decimal places.

Recall the formula:

f =p/t
Identify variables needed:

p =number of positive trials=5

f =total number of trials=44
Calculate the relative frequency:

f =p/t = 5/44 = 0,11

Therefore, the relative frequency of observing the die on the number 3
is 0,11.

3. A coin is tossed 30 times and lands 17 times on heads.

What is the relative frequency of observing the coin land on heads?
Write your answer correct to 2 decimal places.

Recall the formula:

f =p/t
Identify variables needed:

p =number of positive trials=17

f =total number of trials=30
Calculate the relative frequency:

f =p/t=1730=0,57
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Therefore, the relative frequency of observing the coin on heads
is 0,57.

4. A die is tossed 27 times and lands 6 times on the number 6.

What is the relative frequency of observing the die land on the number
6? Write your answer correct to 2 decimal places.

Recall the formula:

f =p/t
Identify variables needed:

p =number of positive trials=6

f =total number of trials=27
Calculate the relative frequency:

f =p/t=6/27=0,22
Therefore, the relative frequency of observing the die on the number 6
is 0,22.

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Explainer: Properties of Permutations
In this explainer, we will learn how to use the properties of permutations to simplify
expressions and solve equations.

A permutation is a rearrangement of a collection of items. For example, say we have

the letters A, B, and C. We can arrange them as ABC, BCA, BAC, and so forth. Each
different arrangement is an example of a permutation. Notice that, for permutations,

 order matters: BCA is not the same as BAC;

 we do not allow repetition: AAB is not a valid permutation of ABC.

That is to say that a permutation represents counting without replacement in which

order matters.

If we have a set of 𝑛 items, the total number of permutations is given

by 𝑛×(𝑛−1)×(𝑛−2)×⋯×2×1.Using factorial notation, we can write this as 𝑛!.

We would like to generalize this idea to counting the number of permutations of

length 𝑟 taken from a set of 𝑛,which is equivalent to the question of how many ways
we can order 𝑟 elements from a set of 𝑛 elements with no repetition. We will denote
this number nPr.
We begin by considering the number of options we have for each position. For the
first position, we have 𝑛 choices, then for the second position, we have 𝑛−1 because
we have one less item to choose from. Similarly, for the third position, we have a
choice of 𝑛−2.We can continue this pattern until we have a sequence of length 𝑟.
First Position Second Position Third Position ⋯ (𝑟−1)th Position
𝑛 choices 𝑛−1 choices 𝑛−2 choices 𝑛−(𝑟−2) choices

Applying the fundamental counting principle, the total number of distinct ways we
can order 𝑟 elements from a set of 𝑛 is given by the product

nPr =𝑛×(𝑛−1)×(𝑛−2)×⋯×(𝑛−(𝑟−2))×(𝑛−(𝑟−1))

If we multiply this by

(𝑛−𝑟)!/(𝑛−𝑟)!

we can rewrite it as

nPr =𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2)⋯(𝑛−(𝑟−2))(𝑛−(𝑟−1))(𝑛−𝑟)!/(𝑛−𝑟)!
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Repeatedly applying the property of factorials that

𝑛! =𝑛 (𝑛−1)!

we can simplify this expression to

nPr =𝑛(𝑛−𝑟)!

This derivation leads us to the general definition.

Definition: Permutations

The number of ways we can order 𝑟 elements from a set of 𝑛 elements with no
repetition is given by nPr (read as 𝑛-𝑃-𝑟) which is defined as

n!
nPr =
( n−r ) !

Notice that when 𝑛=𝑟,we have,

n! n! n!
nPr = = = =n !
( n−r ) ! ( n−n ) ! 0

Recall that, by definition, the factorial of zero is 1. Hence, nPn = n!,which is exactly
what we expect for the number of distinct permutations of 𝑛 items.

Example 1

Find the value of 𝑚 such that 17Pm=4080.

Answer

Remember that the number of permutations, nPr,of size 𝑟 taken from a set of size 𝑛 is
given by

n!
nPr =
( n−r ) !

Hence, we can write

17 !
17Pm =
( 17−m) !

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Expanding 17 by successively using the property that

n=n ( n−1 ) !,we can rewrite this as

17 ! 17 ×16 × …×(17−m+1)× ( 17−m ) !

17Pm = =
( 17−m) ! ( 17−m ) !

Canceling the common factor of (17 - m)! ,we have

17Pm=17×16×⋯×(17−m+1) (1)

Notice that this is a product of consecutive integers starting at 17 and progressively

getting smaller. Hence, we would like to express 4 080 as a product of decreasing
consecutive integers starting at 17.We can do this by dividing 4 080 by 17,then
by 16,then by each successive smaller integer. Starting with 17,we have

4080/17=240.

Hence,

4080=17×240.

We now divide 240 by 16 which gives 15. Hence,

4080=17×16×15,

which is a product of successive integers. Therefore, we have expressed 17Pm as a

product of consecutive integers as

17Pm=17×16×15.

Comparing this with equation (1), we can equate the smallest integers to
get 17−m+1=15.

By rearranging, we find that 𝑚=3.

We can double check that we have the correct answer by using a calculator to confirm
that 17P3=4080.

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