MAST20006 Probability for Statistics /MAST90057 Elements of Probability

Assignment 1, Semester 1 2023

Due time: 4pm, Friday March 17.

Name: Phil Lin

Student ID: 1300443

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MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 2

“Important information on assignments” module on Canvas, or contact the Tutorial

Coordinator.

• There are 6 questions, of which 2 randomly chosen questions will be marked. Note
you are expected to submit answers to all questions, otherwise a mark penalty will
apply.

• Working and reasoning must be given to obtain full credit. Give clear and concise
explanations. Clarity, neatness, and style count.

⇤⇤⇤

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MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 1

1. You and your friends are playing a game where there are 10 cards: 5 are red, 3 are
blue, and 2 are green. Each player draws one card without replacement. The player
-

who draws a green card is the winner.

(a) If you have a choice of drawing first, second, or third, which position would you
choose? Justify your choice on the basis of probability.

EC9)=5
probably drawing firstto win

f (9,1) =
EC92)=5
probably drawing second to win

f(9,) =

(Ifgreen not taken)

is

f(9,2) 4 (Ifgreen not taken)

=

is

third EC9s)=8
probably drawing to win

( (33) 2
taken)
=

(If
green not is

(Ifgreen taken at first) ( (95) -

=

is

LIfgreen taken (sed( (933) =

=

is first
at

1
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 2

(b) Now, suppose there are 4 green cards and 6 red cards in the deck. What position
would you now choose? Justify your choice on the basis of probability.

total
First ECg) = -

second EC97= +
* =
⑨
third E(93) +8 5 I
=
+
=

third position
would be preferable

2
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 3

(c) Assuming that there is always at least one green card in the deck, what should
be the number of green cards so that it would not matter for you to draw first or
second? Justify your choice on the basis of probability.

and thati t would

thenumber of
not
green

This is become, first of second position has

the most simler chame of winning.
t

3
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 4

2. You are the manager of a manufacturing plant and you are responsible for quality
control. Each day, a random sample of 10 items is selected from the production line
and tested by a quality control technician. A item can be in good condition or defective,
and the probability that an item is defective is 0.05. You know by experience that the
technician records the result of the test on an item correctly 80% of the time.
-
Let X be the number of items that were recorded as defective by the technician (in
the sample of 10 tested items).

(a) Find the probability P (X = 1).

f(x 1)
=
(Y) 20.05) (0.95)
=

=> 0.315

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 MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 5

(b) If the technician recorded↑ one defective item in the sample, what is the conditional
probability that there was no defective item in the sample?

C is technician recorded one defective. However, there

are no defective item
B is number of defective item in the
sample
f(B 0/X 1)
=
=

10.95/x(,0) co.9stx0.8
1)005)
-v(x
=

(1) (0.05) (0.95)

0.0958
=>

5
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 6

2
3. Let P (A) = P (B) = 3
and P (A \ B) = 25 . Find the following:

(a) P (A0 ).

f(A) 1
=
-

f(A) 1
=
-

5 5 =

(b) P (A0 \ B 0 ).

f(B) 1 =
-

f(B) 1
=

43 5=

As A & B is independent
f(A'nB') f(A) f(B) =
+

Y
=>
*
from 93a)
Ys
=
I

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MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 7

(c) P (B \ A0 ).

f(BmAY) f(B) f(A)=

x

=
x I

I
=

7
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 8

(d) P (A [ B 0 ).

fCAVB1) f(A) f(B) =

+ -

f(AnB1
-
=
+5 -

(x5)
-
=

-
-

8
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 9

4. (a) Consider a group of four students. Each student has a favourite colour, which can
be any one of the colours of the rainbow (red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo,
violet), assuming that each colour is equally likely as a favourite colour.
What is the probability that no two students have the same favourite colour?

f (not student have the same formacolor)

-
0.0146
=

(3d.f)

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MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 10

(b) Consider a group of seven students. Each student has a favourite colour, which
can be any one of the seven colours of the rainbow (assuming again that each
colour is equally likely as a favourite color).
i. What is the probability that no two students have the same favourite colour?

color) I
9 (no student have same =

77

ii. What is the probability that some of them have the same favourite colour?

>Chave same color) = 1 -

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MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 11

5. You have three bags of marbles. Bag A contains 1 red and 4 blue marbles, Bag B
contains 2 red and 3 blue marbles, and Bag C contains 3 red and 2 blue marbles.

(a) If one marble is drawn from each bag, find the probability that exactly two of the
three marbles are blue.

E 35

A
h
P

- -
B C

=b -
b
E

AB: yx 5 = =

AC: x
= xz =
BC:=x =x5 55
=

11
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 12

(b) If you randomly select one bag and draw one marble from it, find the probability
that the marble is blue.

Y3
A
: Ab =is

#
En
= bBb 5 x
55
=

↳3
35r
-
C

Eb(by E 5
x =

# 5 5 5 I
+
+
=
=

12
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 13

6. A certain type of car model has a defective part in its engine, causing the engine to fail
10% of the time. However, the engine fails 2% of the time due to reasons other than
the defective part. A dealership sells this car model and 0.5% of the cars sold have the
defective part.

(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected car from the dealership will have
an engine failure?

A is a can selected at random from the dealershing

has the defective part
is is a can selected at random that engine has
failed

f(B) tx
=
(i ro)+ (1+
-

) x w
0.0205
=>

13
MAST20006/90057 Semester 1, 2023 Assignment 1 14

(b) Calculate the conditional probability that a car selected at random from the
dealership has the defective part, given that the engine has failed.

A.acan or
from selected at the dealershing
has the defective part
is is a can selected at random that engine has
failed
()
f(A1B) I
=
=

f(B)
x
o
=0.0244(3df)
->

=
-
0.0205

14