Unit 5

Global Warming

1. Comment on the photo and the video fragment “Raising public awareness of global
warming”. What moral can one derive from it?

2. Imagine the Earth as a hotter place. Think of the likely benefits and troubles that global
warming might cause. Consider the vegetation, animal life, ecological balance, rivers, and
woods, human activity. Also, consider the ideas below. Divide in to two groups. Group A
considers advantages (below and beyond) and Group B finds outweighing counterarguments.
Use appropriate speaking strategies for the dispute.

Warmer winters will produce less ice and snow to torment drivers, facilitating commuting and
making snow shoveling less of a chore.

Farmers could grow crops nearly all the year round.

Heavy rains could result in dangerous mudslides in mountainous regions.

Global warming would cause some ice at the North and South Poles to melt. Oceans would then
rise at least a foot or two. Vast areas of dry land would end up underwater. Countries with very
little high ground, like Bangladesh, would mostly disappear.

Transportation would benefit generally from a warmer climate since road transport would suffer
less from slippery or impassable highways.
You would harvest homegrown once-exotic tropical fruit.
Insects that carry tropical diseases like malaria would start to appear in places they've never been
before.

Climate changes will affect the established economy structure and labour resources, leading to
massive unemployment.

You might be able to swim outside in October even if you lived up North.

There would be fewer colds and cold-related epidemics.

Expenditures for heating and cooling would be cut by about $12.2 billion annually.

Hurricanes and typhoons would become more powerful. Steppes would become replaced by
deserts.

3 (a). Read the text about global warming, its causes, mechanisms and possible effects

Over the past, decades the issue of global warming has slowly moved to the forefront of
humanity's concerns about the future. Initially treated as, fantasy, global warming is now a
primary issue as a result of two indisputable facts:
- Rising Surface Temperatures: The surface temperature of Earth has increased 0.45 - 0.6 degrees Celsius
- Rising Sea Levels: The average sea level has risen globally by 10 - 25 cm over the past century.
There have been at least six major extinctions on our planet in the last 600 million years, and
these extinctions have eliminated 99% of all species. 'The reasons for these extinctions vary, but
what they all have in common are dramatic changes in weather patterns and sea levels.

After considerable study, scientists have realised that our Earth is a closed and very ecologically
fragile system, which relies on everything working in concert.
Although our planet has cooled and warmed through recurring cycles for eons, the scientific
community now sees the impact of our industrial age and this consensus is worldwide.
- 2,500 scientists of the United Nations sponsored by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
warn us that, "...the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global
climate."
- Doctors from Harvard University and the Johns Hopkins Medical Schools have linked recent US
outbreaks of dengue fever, malaria and other diseases to climate change.
- NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has analysed data from thousands of meteorological
stations around the world and have conclusively stated that "there has been a long-term global warming
trend underway since the early 1960s."

The levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), in our atmosphere have increased approximately 30% in the
last century and methane concentrations have more than doubled.
If CO2 is not directly responsible for Global Warming, there can be little doubt that its increased
presence is a clear sign of danger to come.
The two main engines of Global Warming are:
- Diminished Atmosphere: The reflectivity of our upper atmosphere has diminished due to the depletion
of certain gases.
- Retained Heat: The amount of heat retained by the varying gases in our atmosphere.
 The primary greenhouse gases that are generated in part by man are:
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2): The primary man-made source comes from the burning of fossil fuels.
- Methane (CH4): This gas traps over 21 times more heat than CO2
- Nitrous Oxide (N2O): This gas traps 270 times more heat than CO2.

The heat-trapping properties of these gases are undisputed and the amount of heat retained by
Earth is also dependent on the amount of greenhouse gases being trapped inside the atmosphere.
However, an even greater danger seems to loom upon the horizon beyond the pale of greenhouse
gases. According to our government, more oxygen is being consumed right now than the planet's
ecosystem can generate. While this shortfall in oxygen production has yet to reach a state that is
harmful to humans, it does signify a serious threat.
Assuming that Global Warming is a worsening natural condition that is being aggravated by
humans, this oxygen shortfall is a loud alarm bell. Simply put, we're methodically ripping the
lungs out of our planet.

The most respected scientific institutions in the world have consistently produced computer-
based scenarios that predict:
- Major shifts in temperature and precipitation.
- Varying ranges of infectious disease and increasing cases of infection.
- Rising sea levels.
- Melting glaciers and disappearing snow cover.
- Habitat shifts for plants and animals.

These same scientists will quickly add caveats to their computer-generated models because they
willingly admit that they need more data to make their models more precise.
But, do we really need a computer to tell us about:

Heat Related Death, Suffering and Starvation

- The ten warmest years of the 20th century occurred within the last fifteen years, and the first
four months of the year 2000 are the hottest on record for the last 106 years.
- Extreme weather events have become more common. As result of extreme droughts and
rainfall throughout the U.S., the Department of Agriculture crop forecast for 2000 is "dismal".
- The increase in childhood asthma has been linked to air pollution.
- Experts fear mosquito-born diseases like West Nile Fever will cause outbreaks in summer on
the East Coast, as mosquito's population tends to increase in warmer climates.
- Populations of ticks and fleas infected with Lyme disease and antibiotic-resistant strains of
TB and Bubonic Plague have flourished in recent warm weather. Infections are on the rise as
rodents spread these diseases.

Polar Melt Down

Since 1958, the Arctic icecap has thinned by approximately 50%, as the atmospheric ozone level
dropped 45%.
Antarctic atmospheric ozone levels have degraded by 70% and entire mountain ranges in the
Antarctic have lost their snow cover. Consequently, huge icebergs are breaking free of the
Antarctic far ahead of even the most conservative estimates.
Concurrent with the polar melt down, there has been an average global sea level increase of 10-
25 cm, which is important for areas with low ground.
If Global Warming continues at its present pace, we can most likely expect the following
noticeable effects within our lifetimes:
- A continued rise of global atmospheric temperatures, leading to accelerated melting of the polar ice
caps, which in turn will cause average global sea levels to rise, flooding coastal areas and devastating
island and coastal nations.
- A continued rise of global sea temperatures, leading to mass deaths of oceanic animals and the
accelerated extinction of endangered oceanic species.
- Our polar ozone levels will continue to erode, downward from the poles toward the equator, leading to
a rise of skin cancers among humans and devastating crops and farmlands.
- Devastating wars between hungry nations desperate for scarce resources, and these countries are likely
to use weapons of mass destruction.
- As global warming proceeds, plants and animals are migrating beyond their traditional home grounds.
As this 'progresses, we will see certain species of plants and animals become threatened by the pres ence
of other, newly-migrated species, as each vies for both resources (sunlight, water, etc), as well as to
establish its position on the food chain of which we are also a member.

Organize a panel discussion and answer the questions on the text and beyond.
1. How much attention is being given to global warming nowadays?
2. Why are the dramatic changes in weather patterns and sea levels alarming indicators?
3. How do you understand the conclusion "that our Earth is a closed and very ecologically fragile
system"?
4. What were the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC)?
5. How long has global warming been underway?
6. What are the primary engines of global warming?
7. How do you explain the "greenhouse effect"?
8. How can we be affected by excessive global consumption of oxygen?
9. How is destruction of forests related to the discussed problem?
10. What are the current developments that contribute to climate change?
11. Have the poles remained unharmed by the climate change?
12. What are the disaster scenarios for humans if nothing is done to mitigate the climate change?
13. What is likely to happen to flora and fauna in the worst-case scenario?

3 (b). Find equivalents of the following among the highlighted words and expressions.

maladies born by mosquitoes; IPCC; worsened by human activity; changes of

areas where the species live; decrease in the amount of oxygen; the extent to
which the earth is heated; changes in warmth and amount of rainfall; heat
trapped by the air; long-lasting rising average temperatures; the global
mean level of water; held by the air; CH4; types of diseases stubborn to
antibiotics; shifts in climate; unprecedented weather conditions; to
compete for survival; gases causing global warming; the vulnerable complex
of natural factors; to become a part of one’s habitat; melting Polar Caps;
bad influence of mass production; CO2; decreasing the amount of gases; the
ice cover of Polar Caps in the Arctic; historically demonstrating the highest
temperatures; N2O; ability to reflect demonstrated by the upper layer of
atmosphere; the amount of ozone on the air
4. Watch the video fragment “The nature of global warming”.

(a) Discuss the following as a group:

1. The Earth was ‘running a fever’ in the past decade. What facts confirm this?
2. How is the Pole ice cover changing?
3. What is not clear concerning global warming yet?
4. How much is the Sun’s energy heating the Earth? Is it crucial for global warming?
5. How does the planet’s brightness influence the degree of its warming?
6. What role do water vapor and clouds play in global warming?
7. What greenhouse gases does NASA monitor? How is their amount changing?

(b) Fill the gaps in the fragments of the script.

Clouds also ________ al lot of sunlight. As our planet warms, more water_______, potentially creating
more clouds. More _________increases the Earth’s ______ possibly helping to _____the planet. But
clouds and the small ______ called _________ that help them form are climate wildcards. Many current
climate _______ predict some __________ due to increase of ___________.

Further complicating the issue is that water ______ is actually the world’s most
abundant______________. That’s right. The same ________ that might cool the planet in _________
actually warm it when they’re in a form of a ___. They help create a _____around the Earth catching heat
________from the planet’s ______ and ______ it within the__________. As the planet warms, more
water ________ from the ocean creating more if this heat _________ greenhouse gas. Humans can’t
directly control the _______ of water _______ in the air. But we can have a much greater ____on other
major_____________ . _____________is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas. And it’s our
biggest ________ to global warming. Fossil fuel _______ releases large amounts of __________into the
air. NASA satellite instruments capture the infrared signature of _________ in global atmosphere. They
show a ______ throughout the decade. NASA also monitors other greenhouse gases, such as______,
______ and ________. In recent years, _______ have decreased; ______ and ________ are on the rise.
Greenhouse gas is most likely the main _______ to current ____________ . It’s the key piece of the
temperature puzzle and it’s unlocked the door to higher and higher temperatures.
5. Read the text about the ways global warming is already changing the world. Correct the
statements below.
Ways Global Warming Is Already
Changing the World
Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience Senior Writer
Date: 07 September 2012

Warming world
Over the last 100 years, global temperatures have warmed by about 1.33 degrees Fahrenheit (0.74
degrees Celsius) on average. The change may seem minor, but it's happening very quickly — more than
half of it since 1979, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Though it can still be difficult to tease out how much climate change plays in any given weather event,
changes are occurring.

In the spirit of Earth day, here's a look at our marvelous blue marble and the ways people and other living
things are responding to global warming.

Altering breeding seasons

As temperatures shift, penguins are shifting their
breeding seasons, too. A March 2012 study found
that gentoo penguins are adapting more quickly to
warmer weather, because they aren't as
dependent on sea ice for breeding as other
species.

It's not just penguins that seem to be responding

to climate change. Animal shelters in the U.S.
have reported increasing numbers of stray
cats and kittens attributed to a longer breeding
season for the felines.

High-country changes

Decreased winter snowfall on mountaintops is

allowing elk in northern Arizona to forage at
higher elevations all winter, contributing to a
decline in seasonal plants. Elk have ravaged
trees such as maples and aspens, which in turn
has led to a decline in songbirds that rely on
these trees for habitat.
Altered Thoreau's stomping grounds

The writer Henry David Thoreau once lovingly

documented nature in and around Concord,
Mass. Reading those diaries today has shown
researchers just how much spring has
changed in the last century or so.

Compared to the late 1800s, the first flowering

dates for 43 of the most common plant species
in the area have moved forward an average of
10 days. Other plants have simply
disappeared, including 15 species of orchids.

Changed high season at national parks

When's the busiest time to see the Grand

Canyon? The answer has changed over the
decades as spring has started earlier.
Peak national park attendance has shifted
forward more than four days, on average, since
1979. Today, the highest number of visitors now
swarm the Grand Canyon on June 24, compared
with July 4 in 1979.

Changing genetics

Even fruit flies are feeling the heat. According to a

2006 study, fruit fly genetic patterns normally seen
at hot latitudes are showing up more frequently at
higher latitudes. According to the research, the
gene patterns of Drosophila subobscura, a
common fruit fly, are changing so that populations
look about one degree closer in latitude to the
equator than they actually are. In other words,
genotypes are shifting so that a fly in the Northern
Hemisphere has a genome that looks more like a
fly 75 to 100 miles (120 to 161 kilometers) south.
Hurting polar bears
Polar bear cubs are struggling to
swim increasingly long distances in search of
stable sea ice, according to a 2011 study. The
rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is forcing bears to
sometimes swim up to more than 12 days at a
time, the research found. Cubs of adult bears that
had to swim more than 30 miles (48 kilometers)
had a 45 percent mortality rate, compared with 18
percent for cubs that had to swim shorter
distances.

More mobile species

Species are straying from their native habitats at

an unprecedented rate: 11 miles (17.6 km) toward
the poles per decade. Areas where temperature is
increasing the most show the most straying by
native organisms. The Cetti's warbler, for example,
has moved north over the last two decades by
more than 90 miles (150 km).

Correct the following statements:

1. Stray cats and kittens appear because the animals adapt to global warming by way of
shortening their breeding season.
2. Increased winter snowfall in the mountains of Northern Arizona leads to exterminating
elk’s habitat.
3. The first flowering dates of plants in Massachusetts shifted an average of 10 days
backward, which triggered the extermination of orchids.
4. The high season date in Grand Canyon shifted from 26 June to 4 July.
5. The genome of fruit flies changes to resemble that of more northern ones.
6. The mortality rate of Polar Bear cubs is growing since they have to swim shorter
distances in search of stable continental ice.
7. The rate of species straying from their habitat depends on the precipitation pattern in the
area.

Which if the facts do you consider the most disturbing? Why? Argument your answers.
6. Look at the mind map ‘Solving global warming’. Divide into groups according to the aspects
(a) person; b) home; c) consummation (food and other products); d) transport) and extend on
the point. Sum up the map as a class.

7. Use an online interactive map “Global climate change” for commenting on the changes in the
world. Concentrate separately on such aspects as hotspots of influencing a) people; b)
freshwater; c) oceans; d) ecosystems; e) temperatures (this may be done in separate groups to
sum up as a class using the appropriate speaking strategies.

8. Let's imagine that this is a panel on climate change. Divide into two groups: a) Skeptics and
b) Optimists. Using the information from the text above and the chart below, organize the
discussion of the global warming issue trying to define whether it is as dramatic as it as
presented by mass media. Use the strategies.

Global Warming: Myth vs. Fact

MYTH: Although thermometers located at Earth's surface indicate that the planet's average
temperature is higher today than it has been for at least 130 years, satellite measurements of
the temperature of the atmosphere thousands of feet above the surface indicate a slight cooling
since 1979. The surface temperature data is unreliable due to the heat-trapping effect of urban
areas. Therefore, there is no compelling evidence that warming has occurred.
FACT: Since thermometers and satellites measure temperatures at two different places in the
atmosphere, it is not surprising that the trends sometimes differ. At higher altitudes,
temperatures fluctuate more than at the surface due to natural climate influences like sunlight-
reflecting particles from volcanoes. This variability or noise in the satellite record obscures
the warming trend due to the build-up of the greenhouse gases which is apparent in the global
surface temperature data. Furthermore, the depletion of the ozone layer, which has occurred
mostly since 1979, has had a cooling effect on the atmosphere which is more marked at higher
altitudes than at the surface. Earth's surface has warmed over both the northern and southern
hemispheres, and the warming is apparent in data taken both on land and at sea. Therefore, the
urban "heat island" effect could not be causing much of the observed warming.

MYTH: Changes in temperature and changes in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century did
not occur simultaneously. Therefore, measured warming cannot be due
to the greenhouse gases.
FACT: Many factors have influenced climate in addition to the buildup of greenhouse gases, so
there is no reason to expect the two trends to match exactly. However,
computer models indicate that warming due to the greenhouse gas buildup will dominate the other
factors over the coming decades. These factors include small changes in
the output of the sun, a haze of particles arising from volcanic eruptions and from fossil fuel
burning which reflects sunlight, and natural variations of climate.
In addition, the slow heating of the oceans leads to a lag between emissions and their effect on
temperature. Therefore, a simple overlay of greenhouse gas emissions and
temperature data is deceptive. When global temperatures are simulated with a computer model which
accounts for most of the additional influences, the result is consistent with the observed
warming, and the buildup of greenhouse gases is a dominant factor.

MYTH: Computer models are unreliable as a guide to future climate change because they do not
reproduce past changes. In particular, they fail to account for the one-half degree warming over
the past century.
FACT: When changes in the haze of particles as well as greenhouse gases are taken into account,
the models simulate a global temperature trend over the past century which is consistent with the
observed warming. In addition, there is increasing agreement between the geographical pattern of
climate change predicted by the models and the measured pattern of temperature change. Models
reproduce other key features of global climate, including the magnitude of the temperature
variation from winter to summer and aspects of ancient climates inferred from ice cores, pollen
and fossil data.

MYTH: Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere fairly quickly, so if global warming turns
out to be a problem, society can wait until after consequences occur to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
FACT: Carbon dioxide, which is emitted largely by combustion of fossil fuels, is the most
important human-made greenhouse gas. If emissions of carbon dioxide were halted today, it would
take more than a century for the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide to approach its pre-
industrial level. Furthermore, about 15% of all the carbon dioxide which has been emitted already
would remain airborne for thousands of years, causing warming indefinitely. In addition, the slow
warming of the ocean creates a lag between emissions and their full effect on temperature. In
others words, the consequences of past emissions are not yet entirely apparent.

MYTH: Rapid warming occurred at early times without catastrophic consequences, so society and
ecosystems can adapt readily to any foreseeable warming.
FACT: Rapid warming occurred in some places at the end of the last glacial period, but since
then, global climate has been stable for ten thousand years. During this time agriculture and
civilization arose, leading to fixed settlements, infrastructure, and large populations in areas
which are highly vulnerable to climate shifts, such as low-lying coastal zones.
Furthermore, the existence of rapid climate changes in the distant past provides only limited
insight into the fate of natural ecosystems. Previously, rapid climate changes
may not have occurred everywhere at once, as they are expected to in the future. Furthermore,
there were no human-made barriers to inhibit adaptation by ecosystems. In
contrast, human settlements, highways, and farmland will block migration of species adjusting to
the warming climate of the coming century.
MYTH: Warming has been occurring largely at night, which is less of a problem than daytime
warming.
FACT: Warming over the past century has occurred both during the day and at night, but night-time
warming has been the greater of the two. The buildup of the haze of particles from combustion
discussed above has probably contributed to this asymmetric warming. But as warming continues,
the tendency toward night-time warming is expected to diminish, in part because the slow heating
of the oceans causes a uniform atmospheric warming over time. In any event, night-time warming
would be experienced by society and ecosystems differently than daytime warming, but may be no
less problematic. For example, the northward spread of certain infectious diseases is currently
limited by cold night-time temperatures.

MYTH: The IPCC has reduced its projected global warming by 1/3. If we wait a little longer, the
threat of human-induced climate change may disappear altogether.
FACT: Computer models of climate have been adjusted to account for the cooling effect of particle
haze, which has resulted in lower projections of global average warming by year 2100. The
reflection of sunlight by particles partially masks, but does not eliminate, the buildup of the
greenhouse effect. When developing countries like China move to reduce the emissions of sulfur
dioxide which generate these particles (as the U.S., Europe and Japan already have in order to
reduce health effects and acid rain), the hidden warming inevitably will be revealed.

MYTH: Human activities only contribute 4% of CO2 emissions; the rest comes from natural sources
like decaying vegetation and forest fires started by lightning. The human contribution is too
small to have a significant effect on climate, particularly since the oceans absorb most of the
extra CO2 emissions.
FACT: Before human beings began to affect the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, the natural
emissions of CO2 were nearly exactly balanced by natural process which remove CO2. As a result,
the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere had changed very little for 10,000 years. The additional
source of CO2 from human activity like burning coal and oil for energy, has thrown the system out
of balance. Although the oceans and forests absorb about half the CO2 emitted by industry, the
rest builds up in the atmosphere. As a result, CO2 levels are now 30% above what they were in
pre-industrial times. Similar changes of CO2 occurred naturally tens of thousands of years ago
and they were generally accompanied by large shifts in global average temperature.

MYTH: The buildup of CO2 will lead to a "greening" of the earth because plants can utilize the
extra CO2 to speed their growth.
FACT: Under the controlled conditions which occur in a greenhouse with ample water and
fertilizer, plants grow more rapidly in an atmosphere enriched by CO2. The extent that this
effect carries over into natural systems like forests is unknown. Some plants, potentially
including weeds, may benefit while others may not. The consequence for forests and other
ecosystems is uncertain, but it is unlikely to counteract the adverse impacts of a rapid climate
change.

MYTH: If Earth has warmed since pre-industrial times, it is because the intensity of the sun has
increased.
FACT: The intensity of the sun continuously changes, but there were no direct measurements of the
size of these shifts before 1979. Indirect evidence suggests that the Sun's variations in the
past may have been large enough over the course of centuries to affect Earth's climate
significantly.