2Q 2022 Media Briefing 6.29.22 Client Copy WM
2Q 2022 Media Briefing 6.29.22 Client Copy WM
2Q 2022 Media Briefing 6.29.22 Client Copy WM
OFFICE
With 255K sqm of transactions, demand for office space increased by 106% in 2Q 2022 from 1Q 2022,
the highest since the start of the pandemic.
At 379K sqm of leasing transactions, 2022 office demand is 70% of FY 2021 office demand.
There are 451K sqm of active office leasing requirements, higher than any quarter in the past year.
Contractions were at 170K sqm with majority coming from the POGO industry.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Capital values and interest in key business districts have increased to above pre-pandemic levels with
transactions for commercial lots in BGC and Filinvest City hitting new record highs.
Filinvest City has displayed the highest growth rate amongst other business districts in Metro Manila.
VistaREIT which debuted last June 15, is the first “mall-centric REIT” further expanding the Philippine REIT
market offering the highest estimated dividend yield of any REIT to debut so far at 8.24% for 2022.
RESIDENTIAL
Overall strong recovery of reservation sales with a 54% increase from 1Q 2022 to 2Q 2022, this is likely
due to developers offering stretched payment terms
New launches have dropped by 78% affected by current macroeconomic uncertainties
Open lots in Metro Manila high-end gated villages have remained stable, while those Luzon and Cavite have
shown attractive price growth of from 7% to 15% supported by strong sales take up
Supply
Current Supply
3.8M sqm for 61 years (1960s to 2022)
Vacancy 2Q 2022
14% Leased 11.64M sqm (82%) 255K sqm
Demand
Supply 2Q 2022
524 Vacant 2.57M sqm (18%) 169K sqm
2.9M sqm Contractions
52
84 Vacancy Total Supply
20%
Supply 14.22M sqm
2.2M sqm Supply
580 Supply
Vacancy 1.9M sqm
1.8M sqm
3 12% Vacancy
24 Vacancy
267 28%
11 19%
36
528 Supply
3,208 351
Supply 9 65
942K sqm
24
698K sqm 26 Vacancy
2,293 Vacancy
22%
1,896 17% 211
117 1,452 9
8 1,323 17
14
567 709
• Of the total 2.57M sqm current vacancy, 60% across 80 buildings have vacancies of at least 10K sqm.
• 40% of the total current vacancy are fragmented spaces across 325 buildings and we do not expect this segment to impact rental
rates.
• For the most part, rental rates in BGC, Makati, and Alabang continue to hold.
• More than half of the buildings with sizeable vacancies in Makati were previously tenanted by the POGO industry.
Makati City
Bay Area Ortigas/Mandaluyong Bay Area Ortigas/Mandaluyong 12 buildings
22 buildings /San Juan 18 buildings /San Juan 231K sqm
468K sqm 15 buildings 383K sqm 8 buildings Ortigas
406K sqm 284K sqm /Mandaluyong
/San Juan
18% 20% 7 buildings
28% 121K sqm
16% Makati City 20%
17 buildings
299K sqm Bonifacio
10%
2.57M sqm
Global
1.39M sqm City/Taguig 1.18M sqm
Current 12% Current
7 buildings
166K sqm Current Quezon City
45%
Vacancy Vacancy 12% Vacancy 10%
7 buildings
121K sqm
40%
8%
28% 5% 7%
7% Bonifacio Global
5%
Fragmented
4% City/Taguig 2% Quezon City 2% 6% Bay Area
9 buildings Fragmented 4 buildings Fragmented 4 buildings
Spaces
194K sqm Spaces 69K sqm Spaces 85K sqm
325 buildings
925K sqm Quezon City 174 buildings Makati City 151 buildings Alabang
Alabang 11 buildings 391K sqm 5 buildings 533K sqm Bonifacio
Alabang 5 buildings
6 buildings 190K sqm 68K sqm Global
1 building 65K sqm
94K sqm City/Taguig
29K sqm
2 buildings
28K sqm
*Note: Figures pertain to Gross Leasable Area (in sqm) Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
PH OFFICE CONTRACTIONS
By Industry l As of 2Q 2022
• After stabilizing in 1Q 2022, contractions have gone up by 63%, with 170K sqm of newly vacated office spaces.
• The POGO sector contracted 64K sqm in vacancies, comprising 38% of 2Q 2022 contractions.
* 300
Others
253 5%
250 36%
479
26%
239 Surge of COVID-19 Cases
due to the Omicron Variant
479K sqm
(20K to 39K Daily Cases)
1.34M sqm POGO
630
47%
Vacated Spaces 630K sqm
200
Start of COVID-19
(1Q 2020 – 2Q 2022) Vaccine Roll out Republic Act 11590 (POGO Law)
Total per
200 CREATE Bill ECQ* after a surge in Quarter
ECQ* after a surge in COVID-19 cases
IT-BPM
17% COVID-19 cases (August 6 to 20, 2021) 170
231
(March 29 to April 11, 43% (10K to 16K Daily Cases)
231K sqm
2021) Peak of 26K Daily Cases in
(10K-12K Daily Cases) September
150 135 63%
59 69% 64
56 Others
375% 48 49 55
38 42 45
50
35 40 IT-BPM
22 34 33 51
16 17 36
8 12 15 26
13
3 8
0
11
1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 4Q 2021 1Q 2022 2Q 2022
*Note: Figures pertain to Gross Leasable Area (in sqm) Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
POGO FOOTPRINT
Transactions and Contractions from 2016 to 2Q 2022
• At its peak in 2019, the POGO industry had a total footprint of 1.5M sqm of office space in the Philippines but the pandemic as
well as strict government laws led to contractions of 630K sqm from 2020 to 2Q 2022.
COVID-19
Global Pandemic
982K sqm
1,800
1,600
Footprint as of 2Q 2022
630K sqm
278
1,400
27
1,200 Total Vacated since 2020
809 255
POGO Contractions
1,000 New POGO Take-up 97
21
Existing POGO Take-Up
800
1,292
600
443 1,037
961
400
734
- 57 57
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q 2022
*Note: Table figures are in thousands Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
3.82M sqm of Future Office Supply
PHManila
Metro PIPELINE OFFICE
Office Supply PipelineVACANCY
Overall vs. PEZA
1,200
1,000
852
800
600
515 579K sqm 2019 IT-BPM Demand
417
400 539K sqm 2021 Total Demand
275
189
200 105 256K sqm 2021
132IT-BPM Demand
0
• At 379K sqm of leasing transactions, 2022 office demand is 70% of FY 2021 office demand.
• Office demand for 2Q 2022 is at the highest since the start of the pandemic at 255K sqm.
• The POGO sector experienced movement with 21K sqm of transactions.
*
1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 4Q 2021 1Q 2022 2Q 2022
COVID-19 Lockdown starts Start of COVID-19 Republic Act 11590 (POGO Law) Surge of COVID-19 Cases
(March 17 to May 31, 2020) Vaccine Roll out ECQ* after a surge in due to the Omicron Total
CREATE Bill COVID-19 cases Variant
300
(200-1,000 Daily Cases)
ECQ* after a surge in (August 6 to 20, 2021) (20K to 39K Daily Cases) Per
COVID-19 cases (10K to 16K Daily Cases) Quarter
(March 29 to April 11, Peak of 26K Daily Cases
2021) in September 255
(10K-12K Daily Cases)
106%
250
37%
114
89 87 92 92 85
100
77 16% 72 81
67 65 IT-BPM
48 55 48 79
43 39
50 64 34 35
27 21
44
34 1
17 POGO
0• Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
• Enhanced Community Quarantine
1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020
Copyright @ 20221Q
Leechiu2021 2Q
Property Consultants, 2021
Inc. All rights reserved. 3Q 2021 4Q 2021 1Q 2022 2Q 202210
2Q 2022 DEMAND PROFILE
By Industry and Location
• IT-BPM sector remains to be the fundamental catalyst of the office sector, representing 43% of demand.
• BGC and Makati account for majority of the transactions in Metro Manila at 53%.
9% 8%
255,000 Ortigas Center/
Mandaluyong
228,000
sqm 24K sqm sqm
Transactions
11% Transactions
By Location Provincial
Metro Manila Davao 44%
228K sqm 90% 11K sqm Clark
10K sqm
255,000 26,000
sqm Others sqm
Transactions 1K sqm 4% Transactions
Cebu 4%
1K sqm 40%
10% 8%
Provincial Tarlac
26K sqm 2K sqm
Note: Figures pertain to Gross Leasable Area Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
IT-BPM OFFICE TAKE-UP
Employee Headcount to Real Estate Demand
• Despite the global crisis, the IT-BPM sector continued to grow its employee headcount by 15% from 2019 to 2021 with
companies shifting to a work-from-home set-up to avoid downsizing.
• 2021 IT-BPM employee headcount exceeded office take-up with office take-up replaced by work-from-home set-ups.
600 579
548
500 452
400 408 416
400
344
324
300 256
189
200
113 21% 137 41% 120
81 23% 100 14%
86 16% 102 20%
380%
100 77%
59 71
23
156% 65% 25
-
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
IT-BPM Take-Up
452K sqm 548K sqm 324K sqm 400K sqm 344K sqm 408K sqm 416K sqm 658K sqm 579K sqm 189K sqm 256K sqm
(Demand per year)
*Note: Chart figures are in thousands Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
2Q 2022 NOTABLE LIVE REQUIREMENTS
By Industry
• There are 451K sqm of live requirements that are currently in various stages of the leasing process.
• The IT-BPM sector continues to be the biggest single industry leading the demand for office space at 212K sqm, nearly half the total live
requirements for 2Q 2022.
IT-BPM POGO
212K sqm 3K sqm
Notable Live Requirements
750
44% 1% 1Q 2020 to 2Q 2022
636
650
451K sqm
By Industry 550 482
451
450
55%
358
Others 310 330
350
236K sqm 280
Other Industries Size Requirement
Traditional Offices 76K sqm 250
Finance
Retail
70K sqm
23K sqm
266
Logistics
Construction
20K sqm
19K sqm
228 224
E-Commerce 8K sqm 150
Government 7K sqm
Services 6K sqm 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
Telecommunications 4K sqm
Manufacturing 3K sqm 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022
Automotive 3K sqm • Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
*Note: Figures pertain to Gross Leasable Area (in sqm) Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
CAPITAL MARKETS
COMMERCIAL LAND VALUES
2Q 2022
• Filinvest City has the displayed the highest growth among all the business districts in Metro Manila with a CAGR of 20% over a six-year period.
• With a growing wealth concentration down South, it is natural for Filinvest City to be the home of new businesses that will be put up by the
new wealth created by the younger generation of decision makers who are now living in the area.
• Due to the level of activity happening in Filinvest City, LPC believes that values in Filinvest City will continue to rise once inventory is depleted
and pricing is dictated by the secondary market.
100,000.00 12%
100,000.00
Ex. BGC lot with
FAR 15 x AV of 113,000 =
PHP 1.695M Php per sqm
of land in BGC
80,000.00
60,000.00 55,000.00 8%
55,000.00 9%
40,000.00 36,750.00 20%
30,000.00 9%
20,000.00
8,125.00 4%
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q2022
Arca South Bay Area BGC Filinvest City Makati City Ortigas Clark Global City
• Core CBD Capital Values have held strongly in the last 5 years with CAGR of 9% to as high as 20%
• First quarter GDP growth at 8.3%, while full year 2022 range is projected to be at 7-8%
• Post-GFC growth in land values may be a similar pattern for post-COVID-19 years.
GLOBAL FINANCIAL
410.01
CRISIS
383.19
403.26
380.29 113,000 128,000
357.61 98,000
334.43 90,000
COVID-19 PANDEMIC
312.12
293.48 80,000
275.97
258.51 65,500
232.85 241.84
213.84 216.94 51,000
204.94 46,500
182.68 192.4 42,000
163.35 174.08
35,000
30,300
20,000 GDP (USD) BGC Accomodation Values
12,083 12,500 12,500 15,000
7,083 7,917 10,000 10,833
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q2022
*Note: GDP values are in $1,000,000,000 USD and conversion rate used is USD 1 = PhP51.03
YEARS 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E
Forecast
GDP
YoY % Change
5.09% 6.57% 4.94% 5.32% 6.52% 4.34% 1.45% 7.33% 3.86% 6.90% 6.75% 6.35% 6.35% 7.15% 6.93% 6.34% 6.04% -9.6% 5% 7%
BGC Land
Values - 11.76% 26.32% 8.33% 11.54% 3.45% 0% 20.00% 33.33% 51.50% 15.51% 20.00% 10.71% 9.68% 28.43% 22.14% 12.50% 8.89% 15% 15-17%
YoY % Change
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Philippine News Agency, DBCC, Phil. Economic Briefing Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
PHILIPPINE REIT MARKET TRACKER
Share
Est. Dividend Est. Dividend
Price/Share Price %
52-Week Occupancy Market Per Share Yield
REIT IPO Price (as of June Change
High Price Rate Capitalization (DPS) DPS/Current Share
28, 2022) (since
2022 Price
IPO)
• Currently, there are 467K units of existing supply, and 181K units of pipeline supply to be completed by 2028
• Only 60.8K units in inventory available in the market equivalent to 7 months supply
• Inventory of which 11.4K units (2% of current) is available in the existing supply and 49.4K units (27% of pipeline)
• Take-up increased by 54% from 1Q 2022 with developers offering stretched and flexible payment terms
• Uncertainties due to rising inflation and interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine War and logistics and supply issues on
construction materials have weakened developers’ confidence thus the slow down of new launches by 78%
20
Source: LPC Research Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved.
2Q 2022 DEMAND PER SEGMENT
Metro Manila Condominiums
• Demand for most segments have increased, most significantly in the High-end market segment
• While the Luxury segment has remained flat
• Sales for the Lower Middle segment is down by 89% as buyers from this segment likely prioritized spending on necessities
Source: LPC Research, IATF Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved.
ECONOMIC HEADWINDS MOUNT
Negative Impact To Residential Market
• Rising prices of goods: The International Monetary Fund is projecting an 8.7% inflation for emerging and developing markets and a
4.3% inflation for the Philippines for FY2022
• Hike in interest rates: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is aggressively raising interest rates to temper inflation
• Low Income to Upper Middle Income segments in the residential market will be affected with the resulting tighter buying capacity and
unappealing lending environment
22
Source: LPC Research, BSP, IMF Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved.
HIGHER INTEREST RATE, LESS BUYING CAPACITY
Case Study
• Low to Upper Middle-Income Segments will be negatively affected by looming interest rates hike that may reach
up to 10%
• Monthly amortization may increase by as much as 29%
Adjustment in HH P8,193
Income to Qualify
Source: LPC Research Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved.
DEVELOPERS’ STRATEGY TO COUNTER INFLATION
Stretched Payment Schemes
• Developers are offering stretched down payment amortizations for preselling projects to boost sales.
PRE-SELLING UNITS
2019 2Q2022
Down Payment Down Payment
Select Developers Down Payment Down Payment
Amortization Amortization
25%
10% 24 months 12% monthly amortization
13% lumpsum every 10
48 months
months
20%
15% 28 months 10% Spot DP 53 months
10% monthly amortization
• Developers offer rent-to-own or early move-in promotions for buyers who prefer ready for occupancy units
• Down payment amortization could be considered as the “monthly rent” that the buyer has to pay upon move-in
2Q2022
5%* 6 months*
10% 24 months
5%* 1 month*
15% 24 months
20% 30 months
Source: LPC Research Copyright @ 2022 Leechiu Property Consultants, Inc. All rights reserved.
HIGH-END GATED VILLAGES
Average Price Per Sqm. | (1969 – 2Q 2022)
• Many prices have remained flat, however investors willing to pick up good deals
• These assets are seen as a viable store of value for the high end market
• Property prices in Southern Mega Manila provinces of Cavite and Laguna are growing steadily at 7%-15% annually
• As a result of improved infrastructure, proximity to the Metro and health and wellness concerns
RESIDENTIAL LOTS
Nuvali
Ayala Ayala Southwoods SOUTHWOODS CITY
(Abrio, Rockwell Ciela at Aera
Development Westgrove Greenfield Eton City City
Cerillo, South Heights
Heights Estates (Pahara)
Andacillo)
CIELA AT AERA
Calamba, Sta. Rosa, Sta. Rosa, Calamba, Carmona,
Location Silang, Cavite
Laguna Laguna Laguna
Binan, Laguna
Laguna Cavite
HEIGHTS
ETON CITY
Launch Year 1998 2000 2007 2007 2014 2019 October 2021
AYALA
WESTGROVE
HEIGHTS
Average
Launch Price P7,250 P8,300 P8,900 P11,000 P14,000 P35,000 P43,400
(PhP/sqm)
ROCKWELL SOUTH
Average
2Q 2022 Price P34,800 P40,500 P40,500 P36,500 P27,800 P53,100 P55,360
(PhP/sqm) NUVALI
AYALA
YTD Growth 380% 388% 355% 232% 99% 52% 12% GREENFIELD
ESTATES
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