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Exercise Probability

A car manufacturer made two models, A and B, in three colors last week. A table shows the production volumes. The probabilities of randomly selecting a red car, model B car, model B and red car, and model B or red car are calculated. The probability of selecting a black car given it is a model A car is also found. Whether selecting a model A car and black car are mutually exclusive or independent is determined by comparing joint and individual probabilities. Mutually exclusive and independent events are then defined and explained with an example.

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Ahmad Malak
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33 views5 pages

Exercise Probability

A car manufacturer made two models, A and B, in three colors last week. A table shows the production volumes. The probabilities of randomly selecting a red car, model B car, model B and red car, and model B or red car are calculated. The probability of selecting a black car given it is a model A car is also found. Whether selecting a model A car and black car are mutually exclusive or independent is determined by comparing joint and individual probabilities. Mutually exclusive and independent events are then defined and explained with an example.

Uploaded by

Ahmad Malak
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability - Example

A sport car manufacturer makes two car models, A


and B, in three distinct colors. The table below shows
the production volumes for last week:
Color
Model Blue Red Black
A 302 105 200
B 40 205 130

• What is the probability that a randomly selected car is red?


• P(red) = # red/Total = 310/982 = 0.3157

• What is the probability that a randomly selected car is a


model B?
• P(B) = #B/Total = 375/982 = 0.3819
Probability - Example
A sport car manufacturer makes two car models, A
and B, in three distinct colors. The table below shows
the production volumes for last week:
Color
Model Blue Red Black
A 302 105 200
B 40 205 130

• What is the probability that a randomly selected car is a


model B and red?
• P(B and red) = 205/982 = 0.2088
• What is the probability that a randomly selected car is a
model B or red?
• P(B or red) = P(B) + P(red) – P( B and red) =
= 0.3819 + 0.3157 - 0.2088 = 0.4888
Probability - Example
A sport car manufacturer makes two car models, A
and B, in three distinct colors. The table below shows
the production volumes for last week:
Color
Model Blue Red Black
A 302 105 200
B 40 205 130

• What is the probability that a car is black given that it is


a model A car?
• P(black | A) = 200/607 = 0.3294
• Are these events (model A is chosen and black car is
chosen) mutually exclusive?
(Two mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time)
• No they share outcomes (joint probability not null)
Probability - Example
A sport car manufacturer makes two car models, A
and B, in three distinct colors. The table below shows
the production volumes for last week:
Color
Model Blue Red Black
A 302 105 200
B 40 205 130

• Are these events (model A is chosen and black car


is chosen) independent?
• No because: P(black) = 330/982 = 0.2342 is not
equal to: P(black | A) = 0.3294
Mutually exclusive Vs. Independent

• Mutually exclusive events are not independent


• P(A and B) = 0
• P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
• Or equivalently Independent events cannot be
mutually exclusive
• Because if A and B are mutually exclusive: if A
occurs, then B cannot also occur;
• Therefore, the occurrence of event A affects (or
prevents) the occurrence of event B
• See: Examples and detailed explanation

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