Topic 2 Exercises
• Discrete probability distributions
(chapter 5)
• Continuous probability distribution
(chapter 6)
Exercise 1
A national retailer has tracked customers who visit its website and
determined that 30% will make a purchase from the website
within six months of their first website visit. Eight people who
visited the website are selected at random as a sample.
a. Determine the expected number in the sample who will make
a purchase within six months.
b. Calculate the standard deviation in the number who will
make a purchase.
c. Calculate the probability of 2 or fewer making a purchase
within six months.
Exercise 1 - Solution
n = 8, p = 0.3, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.7
a. Expected number 𝐸 𝑥 = np = 8(0.3) = 2.4
b. Standard deviation 𝜎= 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 8(0.3)(0.7) = 1.296
c. 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 2 = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)
1. Using binomial formula:
8!
𝑃 𝑥=0 = 0.30 0.78−0 = 0.78 = 0.0576 ≈ 0.058
0! 8 − 0 !
8!
𝑃 𝑥=1 = 0.31 0.78−1 = 8(0.3)(0.77 ) ≈ 0.198
1! 8 − 1 !
8!
𝑃 𝑥=2 = 0.32 0.78−2 = 28(0.32 )(0.76 ) ≈ 0.296
2! 8 − 2 !
⇒ 𝑷 𝒙 ≤ 𝟐 = 0.058 + 0.198 + 0.296 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟐
Exercise 1 - Solution
n = 8, p = 0.3, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.7
c. 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 2 = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)
2. Using binomial table (from Moodle Meta):
⇒ 𝑷 𝒙 ≤ 𝟐 = 0.058 + 0.198 + 0.296 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟐
Exercise 1 - Solution
https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html
Exercise 2
The manager of an online shopping website has determined that
an average of 5 customers per minute make a purchase on
Saturdays.
a. What is the probability that during a one-minute interval
on Saturday exactly 8 purchases will be made?
b. What is the probability that more than 2 purchases will
be made during a one-minute interval on Saturday?
Solution:
𝜆=5
𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
a. (1) Using Poisson Formula 𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆 58 (2.718−5 )
𝑃 𝑥=8 = = = 0.0653
𝑥! 8!
Exercise 2 - Solution
a. (2) Using Poisson table (from Moodle Meta): 𝜆=5
𝑃 𝑥 = 8 = 0.0653
b. 𝑃 𝑥 > 2 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 2
= 1 − [𝑃 𝑥 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 1 + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2)
= 1 − 0.0067 + 0.0337 + 0.0842 = 0.875
Exercise 2 - Solution
https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/pois.html
Binomial Distribution Tables: Cumulative
vs Probability
• The distribution tables posted on Moodle Metacourse:
• Provide the probability distributions
(for binomial and Poisson)
• You will print and use these tables in your exam
• The distribution tables in the appendices of our textbook
(10th ed):
• Provide the cumulative probability distributions
(for binomial and Poisson)
• The book exercises are solved using the cumulative
distribution tables
• Useful to practice with both kind of tables (you could
also verify your answers using excel)
• The following example is solved using both tables
Binomial Distribution Tables: Cumulative
vs Probability
Given a binomial distribution with n = 8 and p = 0.40,
what is the probability that the number of successes is:
a. at most 3? 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 3)
b. exactly 3? 𝑃(𝑥 = 3)
Solution: Using the Binomial Probability
Distribution
(form Moodle Metcourse)
a. 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 3 = 𝑃 𝑥 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 2 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 3 =
= 0.017 + 0.090 + 0.209 + 0.279 =0.595
b. 𝑃 𝑥 = 3 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟗
Solution: Using the Cumulative Binomial
Distribution
(Appendix B - Textbook)
n=8
… …
a. 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 3 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟗𝟒𝟏
b. 𝑃 𝑥 = 3 = 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 3 − 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 2 = 0.5941 − 0.3145 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟗
Normal Distribution
Exercise 1
The gas mileage for a particular new SUV
automobile is normally distributed with µ = 22
mpg and σ = 4. Find the probability of one SUV
getting between 23 and 27 mpg?
22
4 Probability of
Interest
P(23 x 27) ?
23 27
Exercise 1 - Solution
1. Convert to Standard Normal Distribution
22 x 23 22
z 0.25
4
4
x 27 22
P(23 x 27) ? z 1.25
4
= 𝑃(0.25 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1.25)
Probability of
Interest
z: 0.25 1.25
x: 23 27
Exercise 1 - Solution
Probability of
Interest
z: 0.25 1.25
x: 23 27
Exercise 2
A radar unit is used to measure speeds of cars
on a motorway. The speeds are normally
distributed with a mean of 90 km/hr and a
standard deviation of 10 km/hr. What is the
probability that a car picked at random is
travelling at more than 100 km/hr?
Exercise 2 - Solution
• 𝜇 = 90 and 𝜎 = 10 𝑝 𝑥 > 100 ?
100−90
• 𝑝 𝑥 > 100 = 𝑝 𝑧 > =𝑝 𝑧>1
10
= 0.5 − 𝑝 0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1 = 0.5 − 0.3413 = 0.1587
𝟎. 𝟑𝟒𝟏𝟑
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟖𝟕
Exercise 3
The IQ Test is designed to have a mean score of
100 with a standard deviation of 15 points. A
score above 140 is considered to be genius level.
a) What is the calculated z-score for an IQ of
140?
b) What would be the percentile of people who
have an IQ of 140?
Exercise 3 - Solution
a.
b. A z-score of 2.67 corresponds to an area under the
curve of 0.5 + 0.4962 = 0.9962
• Which is the 𝑝 𝑧 ≤ 2.67 = 0.9962
This means that a genius would have outscored
99.62% of the rest of the population.
Exercise 4
The mean and standard deviation of the grades
of a statistics course are 𝜇 = 80, 𝜎 = 4.5 and of
an English course are 𝜇 = 85, 𝜎 = 4. A student
attended both courses and scored 85 in statistics
and 95 in English.
Which grade is relatively better? Why?
Exercise 4 - Solution
85 − 80 5
𝑥𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡 = 85 ⇒ 𝑧𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡 = = = 1.111
4.5 4.5
95 − 85 10
𝑥𝑒𝑛𝑔 = 95 ⇒ 𝑧𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡 = = = 2.5
4 4
The English grade is relatively better (higher).
• It is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean,
• Whereas the Statistics grade is only 1.11
standard deviations above the mean
Normal Distribution Additional
Practice
1. For a normally distributed population
with mean 200 and std of 20, determine
the standardized z-value for:
a) x=225
b) x=190
2. For a standardized normal distribution, calculate the
following probabilities:
3. For a standardized normal distribution, determine a
value, say z0, so that
Normal Distribution Additional Practice -
Answers
1. x 225 200 25
z 1.25
a. 20 20
x 190 200 10
b. z 0.50
20 20
2.
3.
