UNIT 2

LECTURE 5 : Delta methods and confidence intervals

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Following are my notes for the lecture. These are my handwritten detailed notes. I felt that Prof. R
taught a lot more in the videos than he wrote in the slides. I tried to make them without any
mistakes and cover most of the video material.

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check the actual lecture slides and videos if you suspect something is wrong.

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The notes DO NOT CONTAIN solutions to any homework problems.Only the problems and
exercises solved in the videos are included in these notes.

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LCC {+ 5 : DELTA METHoD AND CoruprueNce II.rTERVALS A

> E 2Lergises
(a) 4*n 7' and { arce sctrvre crsgrnpffiic tz@;4r611 carrftctence intertvaL
{"" p
& hle hove *o clecide unrhqtcr orae, is canbotned in 'tlnc otlnsy 6y not .
(b) t i" +^" \q.2. confidence intevval, orr-d d ts *tz qB 7. e{idence, inYeyval,

4l F""t th" Le. a^) one ,cor,tld. *lain-k tna;b t' csnto.rrnL { crr

f :f W be:r,l-;sz { us qt-'/,
e1u.iw atevttty
ULe+, P is ivt avu intevva[ ovcruvr-d Rn I Ajves ua
B-t\^es
Suyi
qc'/" +
t*ifi&
th€ wtd;th { *tn" lra.teYva.l
4t otrr c-ontf.de"tce
rn cyeases wt[L lqcverlll'.
r^t1,tL dnercose
A$ , ir,, +$us cale' \v^ vqlue, .

hwt nobo*ltat I^)e ynust nol \o,<*zU 1l^2' d"&*y * g e-on4':'d'enr'a

iyr,tetval Csn$Aurce .S *rtevvai oJ-- l"ar^el t- 'o f* {a

tp funfie.rcvaL 7- sb .

*+xn l"w the ae{whcw

ltne ' )
Ne r'nus* woF +*# q Q- *)"A sure lxct Jlre veal
A+ $oys W, the sta+ts+iciaYt rs atEost
qYAeLet .lres 1,w -t14e- ivutarvol .fds doos 'raot m/?a,1' v* cnvE
{.
Pot
ba r4ltoY19 3lft/g
lels a-ssvm7e *ake *te +wbe-vvAl f", fl ilsdf
rare
+* %, tferc hle ar^e lgo 7o suy€ +h.oL P rpifl loet-tg to l+tis t,r.Uavva(
(o,t)
aA at4, out at a*laUco'L m odal pe O =
bec,attse 12
!oo7, g\rYt , M ovrg obvtous[Y vnolre- than q'5 7"gul€
9o ,t hle
t\e:ve
oxe
.W
tluat fo
otejtnikorv
11 {s a}1
t L.A.
asJ* ptotte
l.;,
e.T.
oloes woV stoP uS
4
+xl;r"L sW%
-Lewt q57'
it fo,t1
v
t-
.*)
Y\ot ) Let-s cAL -
So
CaLc,lrlotZ -+lry, q&l' cttnf'O ucn inYo+voL
{P
ldoro eu?f o9L l,rfe t^)at^,t rrhe cernseYV a*itrc taouncL 'ttew' 1-rt = .98
t"se' do
-thrs by ustn2-
But
o( = 'OZ {we gerrevol WAA
fr*
lr
_J-gspg 8n 9.ot t E, +1 ol
L
dmT ,.Jiil 1
Rn = .LAg
(" ,u" 6at
Q,ot
I
= 2.bb PrfiAr"g

FLooru = L
.54 )
,Y5] {,*, Q,n o',r* rili-)

Noo aLthorltn {= ["84, .751 isq qB7" c.r

1l is a qSZ" C"A
nre c\eory se.e T i r d I4T
lVr;s hap,eneA becausa vue. calculated A- {rom crne *ech^T* arA f
Irorn amo|dn.o'r technrlue .
5o A. c- T ls not ALldAys true .

&uL iJ hre caulote {Gsz) and f(ee7.) on

'ttae sorne sompl.e
uai,ng the Sarne method +o corrpute pounds *he,n hle cq.n sqy
that I s T.
(C) rLouf, e-)Lqenment t5o pov*tcipak 7s .lrryn ea herrd. ttg}f a*lvers
l^ ^ "ub {
h.r-rned 75. we o.re ogked dU", f EoZ CT.
Lets cnlcutobe 4n\e pav wnekers re]abed"
tt, = l5o 7 =Rn -Y{= O,5 , !-o(=.5 + o(='5 , 1Yr-- l'zs= ' 67
t5o

7 govtsv = t fl. lv, E" + 9vz

am & In

.5 ,Ll ,'5 + .(1

t 4lGt r"IlEo'

. 473 .52'1
t I
o1ttsrn% o+ oftto'n
rt is trute b r''-t noL leoLh '
XTor^l tls a1: r,r, {not dt);,,zr
Lr.fs droh) *{'
ar<arnple it
@ l-.4ec , .-?227 tw thrs
was atready qrr^eh
L.4s ,'5L) -tlnok aithev on.
'ltern is c.,orrec.K{
(,nS
So t".re sh sulcl
,\tl obviuus! choose{he
.4€e '479
,19 '52- ' 633
{.orger errre hence
t--@ I

l.Aae , .5tsu ]

l'4g , 'f,l-f 'rl smollelL +ho^ T.ooru

$a,rc *tae
\he
lyvf,owoL
intertval L-eee, ,S+tJ is +Y 'lhan I*
ogo acrn - L'Aae ,'(rf]

8o
't
peicon'*L,r,r#*tr;n?"".#:'"r#^#,?m:,#.*
c,y,'tt." -lr"d vrTr,tcl., 1>rr

6o olfl^glfu ?isLwY1'Lv E1i- I rb w6t

LeIs lcaLR, of r*-te ovYttru J" See $lom t(te_ c-sLc-ulalfu
"a&ten

tr( (e" - p)
_rn_
r-P )
,r)
 enoro *,r.abr,fu d, , sa1 Z -)tco,r)
We
'"Jp(r-P)- ,ilro,r1
slarr dard n$vaa:|.,
^1@
wiil,L o>y"fi6.ic Xerd/
&o hle ,,si, ecrculoya *tae 1*olcaht!t1
?( .Ifi'(teni ,,o) /* f ( R"-P 70 P( Y vo )
Jpo- p)
)=
o

+P(E'-P>,o)='5
a&,ts(t'4R")='F ttere itr,{haexarnplc ,^te h,o*.- E =o 5

+ tr(P1'6) ='5
h- *ffiLd^cilk ? e fr,.5] ,,rrh ?r*Mu% l"
-to,
&t*.," .5I 'is oL 5O7' co'nlide.nce i'*eYv
J
aL

&r^^iU"NdI f 'F, ar-l

'vg u gOZ cnvr{denc.e iwLevvaL

t"'e gtrtr
.\lou.r wolie th€, in*e-vvals
O [o, o"5l ds o" So"/" cav'\idence +vrhe,'rvoJ. 1* P
! I iA u 5o7" coru$'d"er'tre i^levv f"* p
at,
@ ['8,
NoE vu{aot'tlte abolre zlote.wre*G are ,%ru 4\ y uaotXt *o [0, '5 ]
aor1

witt4 at*east 6o 7o P4'"boHti% {tso p betongc{o f.S,lJ rxi+h

So7. W&r*ng
e*,le,osl. The p e O [o, tl 3o +tne1 arae fft,^{ u.s 1^o >,r.€r,,1 ifufrr*, at*u
A_b tuI ue *"A aLL fov+ibil;het P
f ( tf +aken
.logether)

tfowoet<- 7.^ l.+lz , .sz-l) ,ib a lood car.f<dence i'r*erv oJ,

{X wcdth ti . oF ,8o +t sqys p Letonns 4o flnis uyldflr, arour'd )&r.z
Yvreon" Wit+1 afleast 5o'/o prrobabilitu vsl,t'ch, is a much" pre,crse
hlaNe*flu* .

(d) etten lo}l ,o,5y7 is I q57. eonf)de,ncear',.*qvo'J'. what ts {lne proUafiu!

{^q} p € [o.z\, o's7l qtleost osymp'kttca$
-Trufs ff" .":.**er seem"d I'#'iY
is aw ita,teresttnp lricky quesHorr" 'At {+vstosymg#t'c
T*s gir,revr, +l.,of'";"5 i..;.,, J.nz] io o,"
ivttevvarq[
ivr-tewa[
':
So h]e aLI e fumrc*ed tp aqy
Helte, U qtwel ils a 9J57. ctr"-{*derrc'e
*-l€
ttu& p e '1, wi+h qtteast ' q5?" pt"u^l'iriry aut1 oT Oisabsotrrbe$
u _--: this
O'sY] {a e'+her
Jhe pr,rbab'ttihd 1h-at P e [o'24'
'

{o u*rArrs+od *fu's lrl( $ct I o'"b^'ol- +hr, 1"tt"*t^6 1t e's*trna

 s,lt
Ouvhat rs 'tlae prolaahititg tnak 0.25 e [o ,34 ' o.571
Nart t,tl€ cayr cteoxty see +ho! o.zs doer noV l,ie oa this {nte,vval . {+
seerns kird
a + strrpiA *o qsk tln-is lueston F* o.25 t"dtic!'t, -tr i+se-td
cletermrirusHc numhev . 1+ rrre haye +o orlswe4 4t -the fvabo&l\Vt
is th€. pvo,lcoiti+y Jhat o o.b e fo.a4 )0,571 = O
@ ryO
46"tru o {.-^d "& stupia luesttrn . hJe tr.nornJ o.34 < o-E < o.ET
So ltae pzrsloa-|a[ty {s 1 [e lDo"A
Now Look ct the luertLcn aaked eo.xtiex iw tj*tt ol-flne^se *r,oo q.^r,cttor.r,l.
A!* luestiorts askerl hr|,\"at is +he proboraiu+)- +{.tt a deyov,,r,,int'shic
A"
flumbert (o.z5 or o.5) -tjes tr,rstde ow tr,ttevvalu
nstv,Abe)+s ( o.a+ , o.S'7) tde asked lhe sarne
$vmed toy *r,r:o deYexwtir,ti*tc
l,rrsUiorr, uotliet+ brrt *lrts
datarrnln-rsHc rnrrrraberc -tln-ot trre qske& quasHoru abor,tt h)a.-E P. p uccr.s orrJt
trr^?- gotav.,z.;eVev . Al*Lror^#/\, ! !e Gtory+ fnbro (and yneJ jreuer know) ' tlrr,e exxcb
Val.ue
* p^. tnle l<yrow th^) therre {a avolue +he+ p hog , iu en@ *h.e
"}
nurrrberi $orrl, O *he, gatamzter oel (trere (o, t)) , *rna fiaf pax*icllar valu-c.
I9 +irounhout otrt.co.lculal[ons. Eaya,sr[vr S+a+rs+t s Al,surnoAfia,t p i+self <,c
**d
randorn Put tt$e orc n':oY ddng +hat ,fiis rg*he
freque.rt+tst appvoach.
Norc lels 1s6fc at a scenarb. Suppose yeru or€ hirecl" bX n $nonce !+rrw anA )dn":1
ask yotr rdtetherc cL s{ocla u}itl cToss o, pa&cutar price f,e\^el by a cev{aiyr dabe
I+s o yeslno questtol so Jcm r.node,t it ustng- lzrartp) qvld p rs the pvobalriUy
% YeS (Xr:= 1) . fvte {*r- coltec{g a lob o{ data" #,n * t+ +oJou. Yo,u do a. t*d
6.iLcutatiun , mt,uPe *.i1" eade * **ro cnd fr^qy ,orr"r- r^'r+h'th"turf,T
T
4 9B'/u Conftdence ivtterval +. P , [ .gb--, .q5]
Ttae cEo asks vor , tlrat the puce u*vtlt cros,s
ffir?;,"ry dff ffi.r"-%" #f
Totr ansb$€-r '. No ALt I co.n sglrry ts T doytt kttouo *tce r^eaf p
a{ !T cyosses, rt c.rosses (protaabili*,/ __ l)
at -rt dosel* ,tt dosen4 [probobiLi$ ol
=
So Vor,r ar,re de-ft^t LV *'nna afkx gtvir,\A -that onsr^r{r., , ButL it reatly touches
u
dne vteqrt oJ *l,t* isVuel brhoi inn ,^i, ,.[tH saylnp/ predrcknq qborrt ++,u
intarest radne,r,r, nn ore- pt tf,,E doto \o crrl'cu\aFe CA.
fa.ratnefu.l- d- ^2lh"a t*"
(ovhlv.x+al this
luastcon 4s ansrr.renecl at l*,e end rche lech.tre
$ ,

(el 7+ 1"34 r.571 is 95 7- c""tde,nce ir*e><,voJ" -{rtre,vu t+ r,rcil atso be

,*. A ,-'+ de.ytcz iwtelvaL {or ct .l"ernet .ter,s {havr qs7.. te r{ u^re otte\77"
Li) Suv€ hle qrs dedt qO7. suy€ bd it *oy rztok be *rue .pt-
^i+ey ,
4onel gve.atert thon qS7. , iu i{ \^}e are. q57. guy€ \^}e h/r ry n*
bz QB'/- Sure gO
Le) Fot*.
tf I f*ue
 Er

p Trre T"ru
l6x soy*e r€osoru 9""[ (. cat[6 Sn"e lrrairu'T'. -]tq5be {hat( ho,,,: )o* do tt tn{rcnch
oy\ O
tg^tg t^!€ rnore 1. ::rk lr,uestion- .1 p""U"rn-+i+,*^"".t-t'os+ug
KendatL stahoru, Trarns(T) axxrrne ob c{.lar'evr,b hrrue. We as statts+tcioo;L
1ttt.
w"o^t f, sge rn:h,o,t r^J€ crtl s%L about +l^R. ir,Tt,erarrival *tlt'rea },ehneew
dil\ennh tvains. le- -the. H'ne-1. need -lo wait {orctt're next tvarn or\c&
T i,i"*Crr i*t nira ) th. praavicruts ttairt, [that- .lust L"kk)
lvre f.:ot *"V umuld be 'lhe colLa&ian $ daYa . HLa4he tast*twte
-Ti, T, Ta Tn aru n ctabo potn& .fa, i {e,q,avrival, 'li,rne
,
lnal 7- harre cdteebeA dH% oy" )he stahor.
) {ssuntrtDng
\t {o z4ryrfu our- avlnUy,tt nr rctLL rnak o a.ssum phrn^
o T, Tt,,T3 . - . an ay,e tndeyen denV

LiL" -ir1,Q- *.ains ovr. p^jt& opovabed t bo a,s {o o.r*a crashj'ra_

Y^:;' :;:^YH; *, :x;
3ut lotrne sako u] 'W -e>c,amfle An,, *"t and"eyettde**
x;r#il** *
@ 4,s o',e. idetenoft di,>bibuked" ,,W e>,ponrntiat oli"b,;g,, lr*L e+(^)
vrle hliU see the trE agon
"r[r,1 hre chose *hjs d,tslrtbr.r]tcm ^so.o/l
9v+ t{$\ b*r{q taLk abotuk zxp.ovtaalqkb\l d(i+ributcorr

fne gryorl ts -{h" vduu Prns+uah pd{ ts cle{.irned is *€, t e [o,o)

?d+, frtrl = Aert if t >o 4o*'(x>o
rlrl = J
,a@

tt) ir (t) dt
tA
= JLl."+g
Al^
dfr = A +, e-)t ]*
o
.o o
{

)'. +o -io'-^TJ
yWry {rf3t.U-
l^r,,ilt^t<bt
art &r1, Jr^i Varcff) = Ek'l-Efrl2-
BX?uk
F**
_1

J ELrJ= L ,I
VaxLf) =
A, ,^
 'J" A

)' Ttre
,r"gurfr * rnerrnsr[Ule,saness
roe calcuta[e, F (f >t+s I T >t) f*. t,s )- o
Lel-s Jirs* colcrr\oite in gerreraL E (r >b)
-@
F(r>t) = J r6^x dx = -+ d^*]- -oo
e-,tt - Ltrn g
Xx
rlt *+a
v-T-r
-ttais goes{o O
73o8(r>t1 = d-)r
Aobg,lh,t's F(t>t+s) = U)"(t+s)

G Cnrcurate lFtr)t+s lr>t) = tr( ff ,r*s)n (r>t))

E( r>t )
-lrre errcn* (r>t+,s) fl (r>t1 T>t+s
=
fto Xt +41
- Is 96 >t)
E 6rt+,4 lT>t) PtT )t+61 e e =
P (r>r ) e -^t

po P(T7t+blT>t) = tr(r>e)
1"*ol;tiV-1{f^At ira"te&an}tiva\' dme > t +A yW{hot hrwe- }* is probablhT
\+',a*, 4tme >S. le.
9rabal;tt;*r4 +hdt a hlill' haw 1a wait e J** mirur\i Lrot e = E )
oli*n +'l'\r& *:oAleA *ev" wiw&u ( "-lr" t = 1o trtiw) i> j*t e1h4l
"oH
.t'o yc+aaU;'AU6 +ho+ 1 t^^/{- 1D r"lait {trre, wur.u(ru. ah"e +rai*" elou naV
C-0p4e l,uoyo ,r:nu"c)1, *tmZ waiteA op -titL *h.at lng'rne-nf.
&on
{tls,laaL trm"*"nf t$
.*1.'t?- 'nsasot ex_yone_rr*ia\ 4.,,rtribuHoa u r*eA,*o
t^odeL 4i^c LnVer'arrivaL ilvrteA ,

4ro T is h^" ao ils 'nodelted %

a randorn vot<iable )O
{+. Ako assumed +hjrL daba, rs ooLplbeL 4n, o, homrgcne_lvw Li,vve .

tn]fuc\,r, ynoans iYs not *to caga {.Lat $omz d.ata 4,t cr,lS"et1) durtr7 ar*rfi
IIW ,rrrhiw sorne olhor durinq rush, h,olr w bo+tn hrdL fnob^Aua-
{attoroelq** distribr,Uorua. ) ' (
 s"7
V Esltw\,ator T - EzP(l) :
we knoro *hot Etr 7 = L/L

\YLd"t Xood,
as+ima*atl * atrl ts T., t{t n

{ rroturat cs\imaiax +" ia f. [Becausa { tl'ue t'u'tl]

*
1o make probablfshc .o1,qa-\6ttorns/pre'c\icttont {o'" )'
But l$e nroyrt
so hle need an esttmo*o^c $^' A ie t
J-4
{ r'',a*uvat eslua a*ort
{* fr l '1,s + \", i = 4' $ec^tse "-

T Trr

\de knoro T 'P

.,8*
n+@ > + (tws is lan * % mrmhevs)

^)
Tf nr hnornr lhab +(") rsa c.orntt nrr otts $urr,.{t-t'tlhen by csnhrutwt maflxyih'
-f tT, )
ehr(v^)
n26\'
q hle -lake fr v ) I)c

:
L A.9. rf?
w+@
,\
a
) I dr5r

h.->oo
F A
T^

t^)s In arrt 0& o- cnnswVen)u e>Li,nnatcr t'w x

t ^* dasoontirttto-ut oL x-o
NoU, +l^ek A>o So t^le "fPt^d M, W Inearuna'a i t*

V (w. cl'dstriburhor'r,
) = d2 = l/t Tn=!tT,
n
-t-ru Exp(x) EITJ = Llh VarctT 11 i.-l
\Nle know VY c.L.T'
!/t,
fr ln , (d) , ,Nto,t;
n+@
,^

oR Equivale^tttl
(d)
T" ,)i (. 1
Jy1,
t -L )
7 h+6 * )

e p oLnt heve rs I r"ro utd t-ike +D mdee con$'a wlca iu*e-Yvals

Ttn

f*' l Sa 7- wa'utld rike- 1D *thd f tri-)l >-x) ; +torry {ikethn

avd -t"" +t^AJ { t,oould v,ezd )he d,Lshi.uu+ion i [which*+) "l
 5.8

>TvLe Datta (A) JvLethocl

?ro! & , cl^eqtes a lok { *frston reg*cdirrg wrl\^L g .ts inl1te defb method
Trtjs all could l^r-orrc been o.rrotded , o"r! ( h.e, used a d{ercnb J.ettex.
-lfre
slrde.s ond L-ecbures use
g , \,t:e here use *he LeJdQ,{ a .

Let 7*, be a, Settrence + vondorn vamabtes suckuthaf

( zn - a)
J
^ ;}, Jito,.'r,;
tot sorne a e F, on4 12 > O
kr 5r & +Vv be conrtrurouly dufferc/dial ok y;r* a, , Tv-ren
fi (g%n) - 3@) -N(o, (67et1'n,)
*
% & a,L 3oov1. aa )ort
firhak +luis lruhhod,
l\ave' n6Mq
'fff6c
a[ selu,ence 74 atound. A t lcu get usX,nq+fric normat/! * SGn)
i"i"a g@ , i{ g is wnknuot)X &lfQrerLh'able as<atni a".
"\ toose ?"d AnVJ"^.*,." gc"tl canr be a>t[ca6dqd os touo"*t around0.
3t*)
3c2t) = S(al + 9'(o) (x-a) + 3?al (rt-a)'+ grrq
Jr{Bt v)L+
az.
?ut )L = Z"^ le.L B be a. r^re 3.t
g(a) = 3(") + 5/ra") E_-a) + $'/f at Lzn- a)z+ _ . -
It
AIo
As bs<. knorn: Jh ( 2r,. - a) ,- [d) , ai (, , FL)
K 16a
(h-o) d , i(o, g1
' ^+a n )
9o (Yyr -ot) .ts ol order^ 1
n
$o &e -tcqrns (Zn-a)' , [zr,-^)g
^rill be srrraL.L
+
C-rrnparned to (2"-a;
Hevrae \^)e ca!1 ,9pyor.timatety" "*7.tr*x1
s{y I

/v
Jtr.)-fta) 3'(o)
(zn - ol
fi (gtz't - 3(a) ) r fr tu - o1 gt": -+ ttus {s
L---f-"------4 lust a. cryrx{artk
#.r's toUo.,o< N Lo, r:;

(d',
,A+o
Jil' (Xta) -
t(o)) > rir 0 ) lXta:;L or)
 GA
-

> *p*ffn3 defto method.

Let Yn be sequence d randorrr va.ruabtes st.
ln (zn- a) ;$' .il[o,rz1
Qir"en g(") is a- ccrrt. ffi $unct(ot ab a
In ( gtz"l - A(a))
*$. $ (s, !ta1z crz)
Lefs yecalL
^"{ h}e rn:erti ttrouX.t^, AtI 1,u\ srdeal
+ t = hros a^ esti,vrztatq S, 1
*{,, by L.L.N

-> h)e r^s anbed fo +olk abouk \ ie i G+u ^ es+imatw)

-' A gcrod estivraator{ d A is + (appUiry cod.Map,frrm, i.t,s oonststenL)
T
+ cLT onrg gcrc, u^ dtdrihunsn ,t i i"l6(T^ _
,^l ;1 "rl(o, _l
-, Ne usq ted {he dts{ribu}ton d V1 }'
)
*fence rre d.etta i"*U.a.
\t)e ktltgt,n: rn (T _*) I-
rd)
N (0, I
n --*6s )
\2-
trt 3(*I = t/x q ,n!€ csr par^e
&r* to trtre general of dcUn mqthcrtr
\^Je 9et 7* = f^ qnd. a 1/\ &
= g (.) is corrknuor,tr!
dr.fl ercnhabte
at il y q.t \y9
5o A?Nr*y Della }4"ethod

11 (Str^) - St^)) * 11o,(E'(r,;f*)

x)
3'(*) = -x2- i
J o
3'
(
,* t (6'(tz1))'= tr4 ; (g,(rrt1?, = ,*

fi'( I ,\) cd) r

I ln
' n+a, rQ(o,I')

l* J[' l \)
h+@
(d)
itq,*;
A
o-R
Jfi. ,\ X) (d) .i to, 11
n-+oo
^
 8.10

FC"^tHehce AnlevvaL '. CnbulaHonr

Now t^s knouo *re dis+ibu+tdn r& I go hle cr.n calcrrtaf pnobaraUUu tor$mg\di.)

jfr t-)r ,-(d) ,

tt 46
,A to,t1
l
For. t - a leuel e-oyr$dence intotval hre, knoro
-
F (rnl5l\e 1?") = I-x
So hre how P ( -- L-d"

I,..
P
( \€ tx q ryr\
Jn
) x + \*,\
Jn 1
{-oC

w.,otu oqffiLtu*"**e
ra'te]Jn^odll
Trre 1^tevvAr nt.e cpnta[yr^s ,1.

' 1-t servaliYea,

\l)
Ao^t hevp. bec'avse lhere,tsho bound r,tle ccr-v1 sugge^rt b^l
r,ue canr* #^d
*he "t t""Or
o&gre
yt .$t,x) = ,1,
f t,rl
tu. +\e Vri,L exampte vue, h ad the L>t+,v-u,,i 6n
jtt" Jgtr -p) .4U* Svtcltoa ucas 'lu cu-i \ lcot-tttq+"Wt
A e-d I
,t i. )nence rrre had b ourdsfo *" toywv
a"
'tn Qiww X>o

Dut IAPII l)s t'to stecla" 4cLge '

9o wz yv\D\^e orr" 1P *+te v"rxi one'

lz> fsol'e A

Ne s+a,&ea tfiL+1'L 1\e Vr&'obt'Liq + 1u,\

Jn J6
+\.,t- iwalw),t4*U o&L?, !-L'neut Lwnfike q,,'rdro.'t-t" rtss;
(") t
rr .l r- qvz\
t JIrJ
&l Afv'artraxty

,\ -,\ >/ wr\, t=> \>/ ,\

fi l+ 1*t, \
i 3l

lrl I
 5 "1r
So
J*"uy
-L
{ sol.ve
Iut
I+
F)
9ry"\
, \('-Hi
)
fu.*he exannpte tn slfde,s

Y:u= €4 fr = 6.2Z
al, =- 57, = "OS
ffi=Z X= I lryr= ]'o's =t.96
e ,L3

IsoLw =t I
6.ZZ (
r+ !'q6
B )
-4
)
I
6,.* ('-+1'J
t . )"L83 ) . Llz6 l
[-rz ) " 2tJ

lz> C p,X LYL

e'hce
%^ n
vevvtL6'**'a
ude Kttot,tl 6g haue no t€Ptoce \ tV l but LeFs
&ttSurnenk -Frr I2t% dra.

A
stati e,,Jict' b1 ae-ua' ttJ'hd')
JrL [ ] - X) "ef,
n1@
1o, t) 1ns
l Cont Map Trun )
lxplltattern o[ L 'L ' sr and
,F
yr-to
, A

x
LVte,
fttt = a,
(usa^1 uonft )rhm
4"1
ftx ) *4
{P
w4op- ftXl
,\ a T
r.\1@
,\
T^ (d)
T & & i\wt Jnun
gt" Tr,r
Notnl "lcse tt .Igtt n4@
> L[n
h-to n16
J I
dett-rrr",ir"is{tc Yr o
Randorn
vaxiarte
Ao
J^,
t
i-r )t-(*t tdl 1+i(o,r)
x ) W 10)

Le, fw ). I (d)
,N(", r)
l w-+o)
 8.12
So \^tL cotr Sot

4Ptt tn=l\ . [A
i/^ I Yc ,\4 \ +
A
) 3Y" ,x,
I J'[" Jn'
L

Fer *lzre €.xamPte ivr el,deJ

Y\= 64 Tn - 6.2Z r* = S'/" = .Os
.Jfr-B i" !,
6.* 1*, = l,ozs = 1.q6

/T
iP? n
6,L3
L 1.9(
B
+t
(#) )
1 r l,q€ll
4.L3 ' B \6.23
l
t . LZLT
, . lqqB
1
l
t ,L2- , .20]

a c,"rr,Sd e nce ivr"tevval's

[2 Meoni"+ * d* ^* f"t^t
\de discussed eax\te.r, hrhof h^PP.,'',s
+o S,t da+o c'o'rr$tde'n ce in+erval A
tw *he carnPte
l.Pr{^n t.tz, ,zol
2 Hexe rnre hcnne o5*"'
hte o"k *A airu Doac -tta-ts
yne,on
7
(A)
) b
4
limBtxe
r1"+cP
Tf*,.A,^ ) > q5"/"
). e
is -ttn. tn € valuc
Tl,te onexrer .tik z eo.rtte'tr Ylo $
b
Y
I" is l!^ -tlri:s {ntevval {he pvobaUi ti+1r r^ !, *
1 "*
tf,,ob {rle Prob"b.UU /"4 O
to '
\t see nrho* tA) meorts
o'* the
-ll hle sord *hat nrc "fi
1r-
ernd { +tn" \e.cJure ond herre rnre o're
13r .iufsr.paac{a,h6Y1 IA s")P% ]A
Basica\ r*hot *he. .!.eluodiEt g oY dc&a. cr\teclto,t
hJa cnrut, vegert 4|"r- act o{.
inlrniL?.l^f)
& raqa hurnbert
+ *tmea L

a VUL dcLervrairusttc value { i

rc.aL 9 T *tla+-6c dont kn*
0e Tne rz ts

nrn tn *ha +ffi ,ffi *rt*ff"; ;;: ;Hfr[ti" *

{s sho
Urlr*, *tme {*
Each
alaove-
+tn"!
[-f-txecl) ),tcg irt*laat san'rpleJ[u"ka t,t,3f ,sr6, b,1,to' ll,
"ffi 12]
Sorne *tvyte,s *tne rea0 +
A:; i;',^ {n, \PDL A tflred) do ,n& &e iw +he sarnpte I, LUU*. '/, r31
1* ?ycrfltsn d +tmer l, tt,i* Lw elt;tr savrtpta iv*ut-va!' to he q -fie *i mu X