Critical Path Method (CPM)

The activities timing are deterministic in nature that is why each and every activity only a single
duration will be given with that we have to proceed everything.

Project Evaluation and review technique (PERT)

In PERT each activity will have three time estimates.
1) Optimistic time
2) Most likely time
3) Pessimistic time

Project Evaluation and Review Technique

Consider the following table summarizing the details of a project:

Activity Predecessor(s) Duration (Weeks)
Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic time
A --- 36 37 38
B --- 31 34 36
C --- 31 35 38
D A 31 33 34
E B 31 33 40
F C 31 36 40
G C 33 33 39
H E, G 35 35 41
I D 32 36 39
J H, G 33 33 39
1) Construct the project network.

D I
2 5 8

E
B 3 6
1 J

F H

7
4

G
2) Calculate of the expected duration and variance of each activity
Formula: Mean te_expected duration
te = (to + 4tm + tp)/ 6
Variance formula:
Ᵹ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Duration (Weeks) Mean duration Variance

O M.L.T P
A 36 37 38 37 0.111
B 31 34 37 34 1
C 31 35 39 35 1.777
D 31 33 35 33 0.444
E 31 33 41 34 2.777
F 31 36 41 36 2.777
G 33 33 39 34 1
H 35 35 41 36 1
I 32 36 40 36 1.777
J 33 33 39 34 1
 D (33) I (36)

2 5 8

A (36)

E (34)
B (34)
3 6
1 J (34)

F (36) H
(36)
C (35)

7
4

G (34)
Earliest start time = forward pass
Esj = max (Esi + Dij)
Latest completion time = backward pass
Lci = min ( Lci – Dij)

72 105 141

36 69 141

D (33) I (36)

2 5 8

A (36)

37 71
0
34 71
0
E (34)
B (34)
3 6
1 J (34)

F (36) H
(36)
C (35)

7
4

G (34)
35 107

35 107
c) Critical path
i) Esi = Lci
ii) Esj = Lcj
iii) Esj – Esi = Lcj – Lci = Dij
Expected completion time: 35 + 36 + 36 + 34 = 141 Weeks

72 105 141

36 69 141

D (33) I (36)

2 5 8

A (36)

37 71
0
34 71
0
E (34)
B (34)
3 6
1 J (34)

F (36) H
(36)
C (35)

7
4

G (34)
35 107

35 107
d) What is the probability of completing of before 145 weeks?

Activity Mean Variance

C 35 1.777
F 36 2.777
H 36 1
J 34 1
Total Mean = 141 Total variance = 6.554

Therefore Ᵹ2 = 6.554 = (6.554)1/2 = 2.56

Find probability:
P(x ≤ 22) = P [(x- u)/Ᵹ) ≤ (145 – 141)/2.56]
P(x ≤ 22) = P [ Z ≤ 1.56] = 94.06 %