APR 2021

Blake Droesch

US Ecommerce by
Category 2021
How the Pandemic Reshaped the Ecommerce Landscape—
and What that Means for 2021

Contributors: Bianca Carasus, Brian Lau, Cindy Liu, Nicole Perrin, Amy Rotondo
 US Ecommerce by Category 2021: How the Pandemic Reshaped the
Ecommerce Landscape—and What that Means for 2021
Last year, pandemic-driven demand for ecommerce accelerated sales growth for every product category. In 2021,
sales growth will be lower compared with last year but will build upon the massive 2020 increase to far exceed
our pre-pandemic sales estimates. Ecommerce will also make up a larger portion of total retail spending across
product categories.

How will the pandemic affect US ecommerce sales

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category,
in 2021?
2021
We forecast US retail ecommerce sales will grow 13.7%, billions, % change, % of total retail ecommerce sales,
reaching $908.73 billion. Prior to the pandemic, we expected and % of total retail sales
sales would grow 12.8%, reaching $761.26 billion. Retail % % of total retail % of total
ecommerce change ecommerce retail sales
sales sales
What share will ecommerce command of total US Computer and $194.94 9.1% 21.5% 53.2%
retail sales? consumer electronics
Apparel and accessories $183.52 18.9% 20.2% 37.9%
Ecommerce sales will make up 15.5% of the $5.856 trillion Furniture and home $105.93 12.3% 11.7% 31.3%
in total retail sales this year. Prior to the pandemic, we furnishings

expected ecommerce sales would make up 13.2% of total Health and personal care $85.67 16.1% 9.4% 14.9%
and beauty
retail sales ($5.779 trillion) in 2021. —Pet products $16.28 7.1% 1.8% 30.1%
—Cosmetics and beauty $12.98 9.7% 1.4% 17.8%
Which ecommerce categories will grow the fastest? Toys and hobby $64.74 13.1% 7.1% 45.4%

Apparel/accessories will grow 18.9% as the subsiding Auto and parts $62.73 13.5% 6.9% 4.8%
Books/music/video $53.85 12.5% 5.9% 69.1%
pandemic unleashes pent-up demand for clothing.
Food and beverage $53.42 18.1% 5.9% 4.8%
The adoption of digital grocery will continue to propel
Office equipment and $18.53 8.5% 2.0% 39.9%
growth for food/beverage (18.1%) and health/personal care/ supplies
beauty (16.1%). Other $85.42 13.4% 9.4% 6.1%
Total $908.73 13.7% 100.0% 15.5%
How is Amazon faring across ecommerce categories? Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as
bill pay, taxes, or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and
The ecommerce giant generates more than one-quarter other vice goods sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
of US ecommerce sales for every category other than
264718 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
auto/parts. Amazon also controls the majority of US
ecommerce sales for books/music/video (83.2% of all KEY STAT: Apparel/accessories will be the fastest-growing
ecommerce sales in 2021) and computer/consumer retail ecommerce category this year, as the subsiding
electronics (50.2%). pandemic unleashes pent-up demand for clothing.

Which categories are most established in ecommerce?

In 2021, two categories will generate the majority of sales
through ecommerce: books/music/video (69.1%) and Contents
computer/consumer electronics (53.2%), both of which
2 US Ecommerce by Category 2021
became ecommerce-majority categories in 2020. We
expect toys/hobby will be the next category to become an 3 The State of US Retail Ecommerce Sales
ecommerce majority, but not until 2022. 7 Amazon’s Ecommerce Category Penetration
8 Ecommerce Categories in the Spotlight
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report breaks down
eMarketer’s US ecommerce sales forecast by product 13 Key Takeaways
category and discusses how the pandemic has affected 13 Read Next
sales growth and boosted ecommerce’s share of total retail
spending for 2020 and 2021. 13 Sources
13 Editorial and Production Contributors

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 2

Behind the Numbers more than $147 billion greater than we expected prior to the
Our forecast for retail ecommerce sales in the US is updated pandemic. We forecast ecommerce sales will grow 13.7%
multiple times each year to continually incorporate the latest this year, reaching $908.73 billion.
changes and developments in the market. Our forecast is based
on the analysis of 11,307 metrics from 179 sources—including
estimates from third-party research sources, retail industry
US Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2023
sources, and government releases covering macro-level billions, % change, and % of total retail sales
$1,192.40
economic conditions—and incorporates retail ecommerce sales
data and revenues as reported by major US online retailers. $1,045.04
We also incorporate relevant consumer buying trends and $908.73
mobile device adoption, which play a large role in the uptake of
$799.18
ecommerce shopping.
We include the following consumer categories in our $598.02
definition of retail ecommerce sales: 33.6%
Retail ecommerce sales include the sale of products and
related services ordered using the internet, regardless of 17.2% 19.0%
15.1% 15.5%
fulfillment method.
14.2% 13.7% 15.0% 14.1%
Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales; electronics 11.0%
0
and appliance sales; building material and garden equipment 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
sales; food and beverage sales; health and personal care Retail ecommerce sales % change % of total retail sales
sales; gasoline sales; clothing and clothing accessories sales; Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet, regardless of the method of
sporting goods, hobby, book, and physical music sales; general payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or
money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
merchandise sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e., Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
pure-play ecommerce platform sales, mail-order sales, etc.); 264717 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

digital download sales (movies, music, content, etc.); consumer-

to-consumer (C2C) platform sales (eBay, auction sites, etc.). What’s changed:
We exclude the following consumer categories from our
■ We did a massive upward revision for 2020. Before
definition of retail ecommerce sales:
the pandemic, we expected US consumers would
Food services and drinking place sales (i.e., restaurant sales, spend $674.88 billion on ecommerce in 2020, up 13.2%
restaurant delivery ordered online); travel sales; event ticket from 2019. But the pandemic drove ecommerce sales
sales; payments, such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers;
significantly higher to $799.18 billion.
gambling and other vice good sales.
■ In 2021, we’ll see slightly higher ecommerce
growth from a much higher base. Our pre-pandemic
The State of US Retail forecast had US ecommerce sales growing by 12.8%
to $761.26 billion in 2021. We now expect ecommerce
Ecommerce Sales sales will grow slightly faster, by 13.7%, and also reach a
much higher total sales figure ($908.73 billion).
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic accelerated
ecommerce sales growth significantly. Growth won’t ■ Ecommerce now commands a larger slice of a
be as high in 2021, but total sales will far exceed our larger pie. Prior to the pandemic, we expected
ecommerce sales would make up 13.2% of total
pre-pandemic estimates.
retail sales ($5.779 trillion) in 2021. We now expect
We estimate that US retail ecommerce sales grew 33.6% in ecommerce sales will amount to 15.5% of total retail
2020, reaching $799.18 billion. As the pandemic subsides, sales this year, which will be $5.856 trillion.
in-store shopping will rebound, and a share of consumer ■ Ecommerce sales will surpass $1 trillion next year.
spending will revert away from retail and toward services We expect US consumers will spend $1.04 trillion
like travel and live entertainment. However, sales growth this through digital retail channels in 2022. Prior to the
year will still build upon the massive upward revision from pandemic, we did not forecast ecommerce to reach this
2020, causing total ecommerce sales for 2021 to be milestone until 2024.

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 3

Note: All references to eMarketer’s pre-pandemic estimates (for
Retail Ecommerce Sales as a Percent of Total Retail
both 2020 and 2021) are from our February 2020 forecast.
Sales in the US, 2019-2023
As ecommerce sales made significant gains, non-
ecommerce retail contracted for the first time since the
32.9%
Great Recession, falling 0.2% in 2020. This translates to 30.1%
about $12 billion less in retail sales compared with 2019. 27.0%
25.7%
24.8%
23.3%
In 2021, traditional retail will grow 2.2%, reaching 20.9%
19.6%
$4.948 trillion. This figure is higher than the 2019 total 19.0% 19.0%
17.2%
($4.854 trillion) but lower than our pre-pandemic estimates 15.1% 15.5%
14.2%
for 2021 ($5.018 trillion).
11.0%

US Retail Sales Growth, by Segment, 2019-2023

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
% change % of total
% of total (excludes auto and gas)
% of total (excludes auto, gas, food, and beverage)

33.6% Note: excludes auto, gas, and food from both numerator and denominator
Source: eMarketer, Feb 1, 2021
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Food/beverage also makes up a significant portion of total retail

15.1% 13.7% 15.0% 14.1%
(19.0% in 2021) but is one of the smallest categories in terms of
ecommerce sales. Despite the rapid growth of digital grocery in
2020, only 4.8% of food and beverage sales will be transacted
3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% through digital channels this year. If you remove gas, auto, and
2.2% food/beverage from the equation, ecommerce will penetrate
0
2019 -0.2% 2020 2.2% 2021 1.7% 2022 1.3% 2023 27% of total retail sales this year.

Retail ecommerce sales Retail sales Nonecommerce sales

Note: retail ecommerce sales includes products or services ordered using the internet,
regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; non-ecommerce sales excludes products Influx of Digital Buyers
or services ordered using the internet; all segments exclude travel and event tickets,
payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales,
gambling and other vice goods sales We estimate that 206.7 million US consumers (75.0% of the
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021 US population) made at least one digital purchase last year,
264716 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
up 5.0% from 2019. Prior to 2020, adoption rates for US
Prior to the pandemic, we predicted non-ecommerce sales digital buyers hadn’t reached 5.0% since 2014.
would command 86.8% of total retail sales in 2021. We now
Among these digital buyers, the pandemic caused
expect non-ecommerce retail sales will hold slightly less
ecommerce purchases to grow across product categories,
market share at 84.5% of total retail sales.
especially for food/beverage and other essential items.
According to our bimonthly “Ecommerce Survey” conducted
Ecommerce’s Share of Total Retail in Context by Bizrate Insights, 27% of digital buyers said they had
When looking at ecommerce’s share of total retail, it’s common purchased a food/beverage product online in the past
to exclude automotive and gas sales, which make up a huge month in February 2020, with that figure growing to 45%
chunk of the retail economy and are almost exclusively in February 2021. For household supplies, monthly digital
purchased through traditional channels. buyers were at 30% prior to the pandemic (February 2020)
Excluding gas, ecommerce will make up 16.9% of total retail and rose to 42% in February 2021.
sales in 2021. Excluding both automotive and gas, that figure
rises to 20.9%.

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Which Product Categories Have US Digital Buyers On the opposite end of the spectrum, food/beverage and
Purchased Digitally in the Past Month? auto/parts have the lowest ecommerce penetration, with
% of respondents, Feb 2020-Feb 2021 both categories at 4.8%. However, the rapid growth of digital
Feb April June Aug Oct Dec Feb grocery should inch food/beverage ahead of auto in the
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 years to come.
Clothing, shoes, or accessories 56% 52% 61% 65% 64% 70% 64%
Food or beverages 27% 36% 40% 37% 40% 42% 45%
Pharmacy, health, or beauty products 38% 44% 45% 43% 44% 45% 44% US Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category,
Household supplies (cleaning 30% 37% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 2021
supplies, kitchen supplies, etc.)
billions, % change, % of total retail ecommerce sales,
Books, music, or videos 32% 33% 34% 37% 37% 40% 38% and % of total retail sales
Pet products 25% 31% 32% 33% 33% 38% 38%
Retail % % of total retail % of total
Consumer electronics (TV, 21% 19% 23% 25% 24% 34% 31% ecommerce change ecommerce retail sales
computer, phone, etc.) sales sales
Toys or games 19% 20% 22% 20% 22% 39% 27% Computer and $194.94 9.1% 21.5% 53.2%
Home, furniture, or appliances 17% 16% 27% 24% 27% 30% 27% consumer electronics

Office equipment or supplies 17% 21% 21% 24% 24% 24% 26% Apparel and accessories $183.52 18.9% 20.2% 37.9%

Sports or outdoor (including lawn 13% 16% 24% 23% 22% 22% 18% Furniture and home $105.93 12.3% 11.7% 31.3%
and garden) products furnishings

Baby products 7% 7% 10% 9% 10% 9% 8% Health and personal care $85.67 16.1% 9.4% 14.9%
and beauty
Tobacco products or smoking 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6%
accessories —Pet products $16.28 7.1% 1.8% 30.1%

Other 16% 16% 17% 17% 19% 16% 13% —Cosmetics and beauty $12.98 9.7% 1.4% 17.8%
Note: Feb 2020 n=1,069; April 2020 n=1,070; June 2020 n=1,000; Aug 2020 n=1,042; Oct Toys and hobby $64.74 13.1% 7.1% 45.4%
2020 n=1,005; Dec 2020 n=1,014; Feb 2021 n=1,045; ages 18-65; surveys conducted
Auto and parts $62.73 13.5% 6.9% 4.8%
every two months
Source: "The Insider Intelligence Ecommerce Survey" conducted in February 2021 by Bizrate Books/music/video $53.85 12.5% 5.9% 69.1%
Insights, Feb 9, 2021
Food and beverage $53.42 18.1% 5.9% 4.8%
263723 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Office equipment and $18.53 8.5% 2.0% 39.9%
supplies
What’s telling is that the share of digital buyers purchasing Other $85.42 13.4% 9.4% 6.1%
in many categories (including food/beverage and household Total $908.73 13.7% 100.0% 15.5%
supplies) has been sustained through February 2021, even Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as
as lockdown restrictions have eased and vaccination rollouts bill pay, taxes, or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and
other vice goods sales
have begun. Some of the frequency of digital buying will Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
likely taper off as the pandemic subsides, but this most 264718 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

recent set of data seems to indicate that many of the digital

shopping behaviors brought on by the pandemic are poised The fastest-growing category in ecommerce sales
for some degree of permanent adoption. this year will be apparel/accessories (18.9%), as the
subsiding pandemic releases pent-up demand for clothing.
Food/beverage (18.1%) and health/personal care/beauty
(16.1%) will continue to grow alongside the adoption of
Product Category Sales and Growth digital grocery.
Despite the cross-category growth in ecommerce sales over
the past year, penetration still varies across the landscape. The lowest-growth category will be office equipment/supplies
In 2021, consumer spending on ecommerce will exceed (8.5%) and computer/consumer electronics (9.1%), two
traditional retail in two categories: books/music/video categories that were hyper-relevant during the transition to
(where ecommerce sales will amount to 69.1% of total retail remote work in 2020 but will be less relevant in 2021, as many
sales) and computer/consumer electronics (53.2% of total workers already have their home offices set up and others
retail sales), both of which became ecommerce-majority return to the office.
categories in 2020. We expect toys/hobby will become the
next ecommerce majority, but not until 2022.

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US Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, by Category, What changed for 2020:
2019-2023
% change ■ In 2020, every category grew faster than we
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 anticipated prior to the pandemic. The largest
Apparel and accessories 16.1% 23.9% 18.9% 14.5% 13.8%
revisions came from small-base categories that
Food and beverage 25.4% 74.0% 18.1% 24.4% 22.1% became hyper-relevant during the pandemic, including
Health, personal care and beauty 18.2% 36.7% 16.1% 16.7% 15.8% food/beverage and “other,” which was driven by
—Cosmetics and beauty 16.1% 29.8% 9.7% 16.2% 13.4% increased demand for home improvement products.
—Pet products 25.8% 45.6% 7.1% 13.6% 17.3% (“Other” includes home improvement and tools,
Auto and parts 10.5% 21.9% 13.5% 16.6% 15.7% garden equipment, building materials, auto fuel, and
Toys and hobby 16.0% 36.2% 13.1% 14.0% 13.3% miscellaneous items like flowers, cards, photos, luggage,
Books/music/video 12.8% 29.4% 12.5% 9.8% 9.0% and cigarettes.)
Furniture and home furnishings 17.4% 35.1% 12.3% 14.9% 14.1%
Computer and consumer electronics 14.5% 35.2% 9.1% 10.4% 9.5% ■ Computer/consumer electronics became an
Office equipment and supplies 10.7% 30.5% 8.5% 9.3% 8.4% ecommerce majority sooner than expected. Prior to
Other 9.9% 39.5% 13.4% 23.1% 20.9% the pandemic, we anticipated the books/music/video
Total 15.1% 33.6% 13.7% 15.0% 14.1%
category would be the only ecommerce majority
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as in 2020.
bill pay, taxes or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and
other vice goods sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
264719 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com Coronavirus Impact: Retail Ecommerce Sales
Growth, by Product Category, 2020
Together, the two largest categories of digital retail will % change and % total retail category sales
account for almost 42% of sales in 2021. US consumers Feb 2020 forecast Feb 2021 forecast
will spend $194.94 billion online on computers/consumer % % of total % % of total
electronics (21.5% of ecommerce sales) and almost as change retail change retail
sales sales
much—$183.52 billion (20.2% of ecommerce sales)—on Apparel and accessories 28.9% 23.9% 37.7%
13.3%
apparel and accessories. The furniture and home furnishing Auto and parts 9.8% 3.9% 21.9% 4.3%
category will come in third at $105.93 billion (11.7% of Books/music/video 11.5% 54.9% 29.4% 61.9%
ecommerce sales). These are the only categories that will Computer and consumer 12.2% 42.7% 35.2% 50.1%
electronics
have more than 10% market share.
Furniture and home furnishings 14.3% 25.5% 35.1% 29.0%
Food and beverage 23.4% 3.2% 74.0% 4.1%
US Retail Ecommerce Sales Share, by Category, Health and personal care and 16.6% 11.1% 36.7% 13.4%
beauty
2019-2023
Office equipment and supplies 8.9% 26.6% 30.5% 39.8%
% of total retail ecommerce sales Toys and hobby 36.8% 36.2% 41.4%
13.9%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Other 10.6% 4.4% 39.5% 5.6%
Computer & consumer electronics 22.1% 22.4% 21.5% 20.6% 19.8% Total 13.2% 12.0% 33.6% 14.2%
Apparel & accessories 20.8% 19.3% 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as
Furniture & home furnishings 11.7% 11.8% 11.7% 11.6% 11.6% bill pay, taxes, or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and
Health & personal care 9.0% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.7% other vice good sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
—Pet products 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 264700 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
—Cosmetics and beauty 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Toys & hobby 7.0% 7.2% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% What changed for 2021:
Auto & parts 7.6% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.1%
Books, music & video 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.4% ■ Many of 2020’s fastest-growing categories will
Food & beverage 4.3% 5.7% 5.9% 6.4% 6.8% grow more slowly in 2021 than we previously
Office equipment & supplies 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%
expected. We revised our 2021 expectations for
Other 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7%
food/beverage, computer/consumer electronics,
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as health/personal care/beauty, and office equipment/
bill pay, taxes or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and
other vice goods sales supplies downward, as much of the anticipated growth
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
over this two-year period was condensed into 2020.
264720 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 6

■ Ecommerce now accounts for more sales share from 39.8% in 2020 to 40.4% in 2021. This gain of 0.6
across all categories than we anticipated prior to percentage points will be larger than that of any other
the pandemic. The largest upward revisions were for company this year.
office equipment/supplies, books/music/video, and
computer/consumer electronics.
Top 10 US Retail Ecommerce Companies, 2021
billions, % change, and % of total ecommerce sales
Coronavirus Impact: Retail Ecommerce Sales 1. Amazon $367.19
Growth, by Product Category, 2021 —% change 15.3%
% change and % total retail category sales —% of total ecommerce sales 40.4%
Feb 2020 forecast Feb 2021 forecast 2. Walmart $64.62
% % of total % % of total —% change 21.2%
change retail change retail
sales sales —% of total ecommerce sales 7.1%
3. eBay $38.67
Apparel and accessories 12.9% 31.7% 18.9% 37.9%
—% change 3.0%
Auto and parts 9.4% 4.2% 13.5% 4.8%
—% of total ecommerce sales 4.3%
Books/music/video 11.1% 59.3% 12.5% 69.1%
4. Apple $33.62
Computer and consumer 11.9% 46.4% 9.1% 53.2%
electronics —% change 11.7%
Furniture and home furnishings 13.8% 28.3% 12.3% 31.3% —% of total ecommerce sales 3.7%
Food and beverage 22.4% 3.7% 18.1% 4.8% 5. Best Buy $20.34
Health and personal care and 16.2% 12.5% 16.1% 14.9% —% change 13.0%
beauty
—% of total ecommerce sales 2.2%
Office equipment and supplies 8.7% 28.1% 8.5% 39.9%
6. Target $20.23
Toys and hobby 13.1% 40.9% 13.1% 45.4%
—% change 23.7%
Other 10.0% 4.7% 13.4% 6.1%
—% of total ecommerce sales 2.2%
Total 12.8% 13.2% 13.7% 15.5%
7. The Home Depot $20.02
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments (such as —% change 13.2%
bill pay, taxes, or money transfers), food services and drinking place sales, gambling and —% of total ecommerce sales 2.2%
other vice good sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021 8. Kroger $15.04
264701 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com —% change 17.8%
—% of total ecommerce sales 1.7%
■ Overall, the changes to ecommerce sales share 9. Costco $14.58
were marginal. Some categories lost or gained sales —% change 19.2%
share in 2020 due to their adjusted relevance during —% of total ecommerce sales 1.6%
the pandemic. However, the balance will be restored in 10. Wayfair $13.88
2021 as spending habits shift back to normal. Overall, —% change 14.0%
even the largest revisions for 2021 will be less than 1 —% of total ecommerce sales 1.5%
percentage point. Note: represents the gross value of products or services sold on the website of each
company listed (via browser or app), regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment;
excludes travel and event tickets
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
264412 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

Amazon’s Ecommerce What’s changed:

Category Penetration
■ Amazon sales blew past our pre-pandemic
Amazon’s US ecommerce sales will grow by 15.3% this expectations for 2020. Before the pandemic, we
year to $367.19 billion. That will come after a meteoric estimated that Amazon’s US sales would grow 17.2% to
44.1% rise in sales during 2020. Amazon dominates the reach $260.86 billion in 2020. Instead, they grew 44.1%,
reaching $318.41 billion.
US ecommerce industry, though its market share varies
by category. ■ It will beat total sales expectations again in 2021.
Our pre-pandemic estimates had Amazon growing
Ecommerce sales at many of Amazon’s competitors— 15.9% to $302.36 billion this year. We now expect it’ll
including Walmart and Target—are growing faster. But grow 15.3%, reaching $367.19 billion, an upward revision
Amazon’s sales are still growing faster than the overall of more than $64 billion.
market, and its share of US ecommerce sales will increase

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 7

For more on Amazon and its ecommerce competitors, read sales in 2021.) Apparel/accessories, already Amazon’s
“Here are the top 10 US ecommerce companies for 2021— second-largest sales category, will also be its second-
plus 6 key takeaways from our latest forecast.” fastest-growing category, at 21.4% in 2021.

There are two verticals where Amazon receives the majority What’s changed:
of US ecommerce sales: books/music/video (83.2% of all
US ecommerce sales in 2021) and computer/consumer ■ In line with overall ecommerce trends, Amazon’s
electronics (50.2%). US sales growth was higher than expected in
2020 across every category. The largest upward
The ecommerce giant will receive more than 45% of US revisions were to food/beverage, which grew 78.5% in
ecommerce sales dollars this year in three additional 2020, compared with our pre-pandemic estimate of
categories: “other” (48.2%), toys/hobby (46.0%), and office 22.7%. “Other”—driven by increased demand for home
equipment/supplies (45.6%). improvement products—grew 58.0%, compared with
our pre-pandemic estimate of 18.7%.
One other way of looking at it is that Amazon will receive
more than one-quarter of US ecommerce sales dollars for (Note: We did not forecast Amazon’s sales by category for
every category other than auto/parts. 2021 before the pandemic.)

Amazon generates its largest portion of sales from

computer/consumer electronics, which will make up
more than one-quarter (26.6%) of its total US sales this Ecommerce Categories in
year. Apparel/accessories is Amazon’s second-largest the Spotlight
sales generator in the US, making up 16% of its total US
ecommerce sales in 2021. Here’s a closer look at five product categories and their
ecommerce performance, including how the pandemic
US Amazon Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product affected each category and what the implications are
Category, 2021 for 2021.
billions, % change, % of retail ecommerce sales, and %
of total retail sales
Ecommerce % % of total retail % of total
sales change ecommerce sales retail Apparel and Accessories
(billions)
Computer & consumer $97.82 15.2% 50.2% 26.7%
electronics US Apparel and Accessories Retail Ecommerce
Apparel & accessories $58.75 21.4% 32.0% 12.1% Sales, 2019-2023
Books, music & video $44.80 14.4% 83.2% 57.5% billions, % change, and % total retail sales
Furniture & home $36.28 16.3% 34.2% 10.7% $239.12
furnishings
$210.20
Toys & hobby $29.78 16.5% 46.0% 20.9%
Health, personal care & $27.91 19.2% 32.6% 4.9% $183.52
beauty
$154.33
Food & beverage $13.59 24.7% 25.4% 1.2%
Auto & parts $8.63 13.4% 13.8% 0.7% $124.60 46.5%
42.1%
Office equipment & $8.45 11.4% 45.6% 18.2% 37.7% 37.9%
supplies
26.4%
Other $41.20 3.8% 48.2% 2.9%
Total $367.19 15.3% 40.4% 6.3%
23.9%
Note: represents the gross value of products or services sold on Amazon.com (browser or 16.1% 18.9%
app), regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, 14.5% 13.8%
Amazon Web Services (AWS) sales, advertising services, and credit card agreements
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
264930 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Apparel & accessories retail ecommerce sales
% change % of total retail category sales
This year, Amazon’s fastest-growing category will be Note: includes clothing, footwear and accessories; includes products or services ordered
using the internet via any device, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment;
food/beverage (24.7%) as digital grocery continues to excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food
propel growth in a relatively low-base category. (Food/ services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
beverage will make up just 3.7% of Amazon’s US ecommerce 264760 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 8

State of the category: In 2020, work-from-home policies Food and Beverage
and the cancellation of social events meant less demand
for wardrobe updates, from formalwear down to casual US Food and Beverage Retail Ecommerce Sales,
clothing. This led to slower ecommerce sales growth for 2019-2023
apparel and accessories in 2020 than any category, other billions, % change, and % of total retail sales
than auto/parts. As a result, apparel/accessories’ share $81.15
of total retail ecommerce sales fell from 20.8% in 2019 to
74.0%
19.3% in 2020. $66.47

In 2021, many consumers will emerge from their pandemic $53.42

cocoons with wants and needs for new clothing—driving $45.24

ecommerce sales growth for apparel/accessories that’s

higher than any other category this year. However, as $25.99 24.4% 22.1%
apparel/accessories inches toward being an ecommerce- 18.1%
majority category, its share of total ecommerce sales will 25.4%
5.8% 6.8%
plateau (20.2% in 2021; 20.1% in 2022 and 2023). 2.7% 4.1% 4.8%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Key stat: US ecommerce sales of apparel/accessories will
Food & beverage retail ecommerce sales
grow 18.9% in 2021, faster than any other category this year. % change % of total retail category sales
Note: includes packaged foods, fresh foods, and beverages; includes products or services
What’s changed: ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment;
excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food
services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
■ We made an upward revision of more than 264757 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

$25 billion for 2021: Despite apparel/accessories not

growing as fast as other categories in 2020, its total State of the category: Despite making up a small share of
ecommerce sales still surpassed our pre-pandemic ecommerce sales overall, food/beverage sales were growing
expectations. Prior to the pandemic, we estimated at a healthy clip even before the pandemic (25.4% in 2019).
that ecommerce sales would reach $139.75 billion in But the pandemic caused sales to skyrocket, growing 74%
2020 and $157.80 billion in 2021. We now estimate to $45.24 billion in 2020.
ecommerce sales reached $154.33 billion in 2020 and
will climb to $183.52 billion in 2021. Food/beverage will be the second-fastest-growing category
in ecommerce this year, up 18.1% to $53.42 billion. However,
■ There is a faster acceleration toward ecommerce: it will only amount to 5.9% of total ecommerce sales and
Ecommerce sales amounted to 37.7% of total retail won’t make up a significant share of the ecommerce pie for
apparel/accessories sales in 2020, several notches some time.
higher than what we anticipated prior to the pandemic
(28.9%). Ecommerce penetration will remain higher Still, food/beverage makes up a large chunk of total retail
this year (37.9%) compared with our pre-pandemic sales, so the potential for long-term ecommerce growth is
projection for 2021 (31.7%). massive. It’s also true that US digital grocery buyers have
now reached critical mass. Last year, 131.6 million consumers
made at least one digital grocery purchase, up 42.6% from
2019. This year, nearly half of the US population will make at
least one digital grocery purchase.

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 9

US Digital Grocery Buyers, 2019-2024 Health, Personal Care, and Beauty
millions, % change, and % of population
143.6
147.8 151.5 US Health, Personal Care, and Beauty Retail
131.6
137.9 Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2023
billions, % change, and % total retail sales
$115.81
92.3 51.3% 52.4% 53.3%
47.8% 49.7% $99.99

$85.67
33.8%
$73.80
42.6%

$53.96
21.0% 36.7%
4.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.5%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 18.2% 19.0%

16.1% 16.9%
Digital grocery buyers % change % of population
14.9% 16.7% 15.8%
13.4%
Note: ages 14+; digital grocery buyers are defined as internet users who have made at least 10.3%
one grocery order via any digital channel during the calendar year regardless of method of
payment or fulfillment; includes grocery delivery and pickup 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: eMarketer, March 2021 Health, personal care & beauty retail ecommerce sales
263842 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com % change % of total retail category sales
Note: includes over-the-counter products such as medicines, vitamins and supplements,
personal care/hygiene products, beauty products and other household products like
toiletries, baby products, and pet products; includes products or services ordered using the
Groceries are defined as food and nonfood products that internet, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event
people regularly buy from a grocery store, such as food and tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place
sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
beverages (including alcohol), pet food, household cleaning Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021

products, personal care products, and others. 264759 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com

However, while digital grocery will soon become part of most State of the category: Health/personal care/beauty is
US consumers’ shopping habits, the overwhelming majority another category that benefited hugely from the pandemic,
of food/beverage dollars are—and will continue to be— as essential items such as cleaning, personal care, and
spent offline. pet products made up the nonfood/beverage portions of
consumers’ digital grocery carts. The category grew 36.7%
Key stat: Food/beverage will be the second-fastest- last year, amounting to $73.80 billion in US ecommerce
growing category in ecommerce this year (18.1%), but sales. And in 2021, health/personal care/beauty will grow
ecommerce sales in this category will only make up 4.8% of another 16.1%, reaching $85.67 billion, making it the third-
total retail sales. fastest-growing category this year.

What’s changed: Within the health/personal care/beauty category, we’re

breaking out two subcategories for the first time:
■ Annual sales will exceed our previous forecast
by more than $20 billion: Before the pandemic, we ■ Cosmetic and beauty: (This includes products such
estimated US food/beverage ecommerce sales would as cosmetics, haircare, fragrance, skincare, and salon
reach $39.44 billion by the end of 2021. We now styling tools, but excludes some toiletries, like hand
estimate sales will reach $53.42 billion. soaps, sanitizers, and household paper products.) We
estimate US ecommerce sales of cosmetic and beauty
■ Ecommerce will make up a slightly greater share of products grew 29.8% in 2020, reaching $11.83 billion.
food/beverage sales: A full 4.8% of food/beverage This subcategory will grow 9.7% in 2021, reaching
sales will take place online this year. Prior to the $12.98 billion or 15.15% of total health/personal care/
pandemic, we expected just 3.7% of food/beverage beauty ecommerce sales.
sales would come from ecommerce in 2021.
■ Pet products: We estimate US ecommerce sales of pet
products grew 45.6% in 2020, reaching $15.20 billion.
In 2021, the subcategory will grow 7.1% to $16.28 billion
in sales, or 19.0% of total health/personal care/beauty
ecommerce sales.

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 10

Overall, the pandemic had a significant impact on the share State of the category: The computer/consumer electronics
of ecommerce purchases within the category. In 2019, category spiked in sales growth last year as consumers
10.3% of health/personal care/beauty sales came from shifted to remote learning and working and relied more
ecommerce. In 2020, that share grew to 13.4% and will grow on home entertainment. In 2020, US ecommerce sales
to 14.9% in 2021. for computer/consumer electronics grew 35.2%, reaching
$178.69 billion—significant growth for a category that’s
Key stat: Health/personal care/beauty will be the already established in ecommerce.
third-fastest-growing category in ecommerce this year
(16.1%) but will only make up 9.4% of total ecommerce sales. However, being that many products within the computer/
consumer electronics category are big-ticket items that
What’s changed: are purchased infrequently, accelerated growth in 2020
will translate to much smaller growth in 2021. We expect
■ Annual sales will exceed our previous estimates computer/consumer electronics sales this year to increase
by more than $17 billion: Before the pandemic, we by just 9.1%, reaching $194.94 billion.
estimated US health/personal care/beauty ecommerce
sales would reach $68.17 billion by the end of 2021. We Computer/consumer electronics is one of the most
now estimate sales will reach $85.67 billion. mature categories in ecommerce, meaning that more than
half (53.2%) of its total category sales will come from
■ Ecommerce penetration is edging on 15%: In ecommerce this year. It’ll also be the largest category by
2021, ecommerce sales will make up 14.9% of total ecommerce sales share this year, making up 21.5% of US
health/personal care/beauty sales. Prior to the ecommerce sales. This share is down slightly from 2020
pandemic, we expected ecommerce sales in the (22.4%) and will incrementally diminish over time as other
category would make up just 12.5% of total sales categories mature.
this year.
Key stat: Computer/consumer electronics became an
ecommerce-majority category in 2020, when 50.1% of all
Computer and Consumer Electronics category sales were generated through ecommerce. It’s the
second category to become an ecommerce majority (after
US Computer and Consumer Electronics Retail books/music/video).
Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2023
billions, % change, and % total retail sales What’s changed:
$235.73
$215.21 ■ Computer/consumer electronics became an
$194.94
$178.69
ecommerce majority two years earlier than
61.4% expected: Prior to the pandemic, we didn’t anticipate
57.3%
50.1%
53.2% computer/consumer electronics to cross the 50%
$132.19
ecommerce sales threshold until 2022.
38.8%
35.2%
■ The pandemic led to lopsided sales growth:
Computer/consumer electronics sales grew 35.2% in
9.1% 10.4% 9.5% 2020, compared with our pre-pandemic expectation
14.5% of 12.2%. However, sales will only grow 9.1% this
year, slightly less than what we expected prior to the
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Computer & consumer electronics retail ecommerce sales
pandemic (11.9%).
% change % of total retail category sales
Note: includes large appliances; includes products or services ordered using the internet,
■ Overall, ecommerce sales will exceed our pre-
regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, pandemic expectations by more than $27 billion:
payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales,
gambling and other vice goods sales Prior to the pandemic, we expected US ecommerce
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
264761 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
sales of computer/consumer electronics to reach
$167.91 billion in 2021. We now anticipate sales will
reach $194.94 billion.

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 11

Home Improvement and DIY Data from Rakuten Intelligence, published in January 2021,
found that home improvement ecommerce sales were up
Home improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) projects were 84.8% during the 2020 holiday season versus the 2019
popular at-home activities during the pandemic, leading to holiday season.
ecommerce growth across several categories in 2020:

Other US Holiday Season Top-Gaining Ecommerce

Categories, Ranked by Growth, Jan 2021
Our “other” category—which includes home improvement % change vs. prior year
products, tools, garden equipment, and building materials—
1. Grocery/beverage
grew 39.5% in 2020, reaching $75.32 billion, the second- 216.0%
highest growth category after food/beverage. Prior to the 2. Health/fitness/nutrition specialty
pandemic, we expected this category would only grow 115.8%
10.6% to $59.49 billion in 2020. 3. Home improvement
84.8%
This upward revision was driven primarily by the boom in 4. Consumer electronics/major appliances
home improvement ecommerce sales that began in the 70.6%
early months of the pandemic. While we don’t break out 5. Pet specialty
home improvement specifically, Mastercard’s June 2020 67.2%

SpendingPulse report found that US home improvement 6. General merchandise

47.6%
ecommerce sales were up 29% year over year in May 2020
7. Beauty/personal care
and up 149% compared with May 2019.
40.3%
8. Home/decor/furniture
US Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, by Product 34.1%
Category, 12 months ending May 2020* and May 2020** 9. Apparel/footwear
% change 15.3%
Home improvement 10. Department store
29% -8.3%
149%
Source: Rakuten Intelligence as cited in company blog, Jan 6, 2021
Apparel 262603 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
12%
41% In 2021, we expect the “other” category will grow 13.4% to
Auto parts $85.42 billion, exceeding our pre-pandemic estimate for
10%
2021 ($65.41 billion) by more than $25 billion.
27%
Electronics
6%
Furniture/Home Furnishings and Office
9% Equipment/Supplies
Furniture
2%
While the home improvement trend can’t account for all
-4% of the growth in the furniture/home furnishings and office
Department stores
equipment/supplies categories, it did drive a portion of sales
2% in these categories as well.
-15%
Total ecommerce ■ US ecommerce sales for furniture/home furnishings—
27% which includes houseware, decor, and small
93% appliances—grew 35.1% in 2020, reaching
12 months ending May 2020* May 2020** $94.32 billion. This year, ecommerce sales will grow
12.3%, reaching $105.93 billion. Prior to the pandemic,
Note: based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments
network alongside survey-based estimates for other payment methods we expected ecommerce sales would only reach
(e.g. cash and check); *vs. previous years; **vs. May 2019
Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse, "The Shift to Digital," June 11, 2020 $87.40 billion in 2021.
258674 www.eMarketer.com

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 12

■ US ecommerce sales for office equipment/supplies Read Next
grew 30.5% in 2020, reaching $17.09 billion. Much of
this growth can be attributed to working from home, but Here are the top 10 US ecommerce companies for
there is a crossover between long-term remote work 2021—plus 6 key takeaways from our latest forecast
and the decision to invest in the remodeling of home
US Click and Collect in 2020 and 2021: Massive Growth,
offices. This year, office equipment/supplies will grow
5 Big Players, and Permanent Behavioral Changes
8.5%, reaching $18.53 billion. Prior to the pandemic,
we expected ecommerce sales to reach $14.53 billion
in 2021.
Sources
Bizrate Insights
Key Takeaways Mastercard
■ Ecommerce sales growth won’t be as strong Rakuten Intelligence
compared with 2020. After a year of unprecedented
gains, growth will return to somewhat normal levels
in 2021. However, ecommerce sales in 2021 will build Editorial and
on the gains from 2020, so our current forecast far Production Contributors
exceeds our pre-pandemic estimates for 2021.
Anam Baig Senior Report Editor
■ Growth drivers will be a mix of pent-up demand Rahul Chadha Director, Report Editing
and the continuation of long-term sales growth for Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
digital grocery categories. Categories like apparel/ Donte Gibson Senior Chart Editor
accessories will benefit from the release of pent-up Katie Hamblin Director, Charts
demand, as consumers weren’t purchasing as much Dana Hill Director, Production
clothing during the height of the pandemic. Small-base Erika Huber Senior Copy Editor
categories like food/beverage and health/beauty/ Ann Marie Kerwin Vice President, Content
cosmetics will continue to grow faster than other Na Li Senior Data Research Manager
categories, even after seeing massive gains in 2020. Penelope Lin Copy Editor
Stephanie Meyer Product Specialist
■ At the same time, many of 2020’s fastest-growing
Heather Price Senior Director, Managing Editor
categories won’t grow as quickly in 2021 as
Magenta Ranero Senior Chart Editor
previously thought. This includes computer/consumer
Amanda Silvestri Senior Copy Editor
electronics and office equipment/supplies. This is
Julia Woolever Senior Report Editor
because much of the anticipated growth over this
Ali Young Copy Editor
two-year period was condensed into 2020.

■ Ecommerce milestones are happening sooner than

expected. Computer/consumer electronics became
an ecommerce majority in 2020, joining books/music/
video as the first two categories to derive more than
half of their sales from ecommerce. Overall, we expect
US ecommerce sales will cross $1 trillion for the first
time in 2022. Prior to the pandemic, we did not forecast
ecommerce reaching this milestone until 2024.

Copyright © 2021, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 13

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