March 15, 2011

Indian market % change Tragedy continues…crash at open

Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Sensex 18,439 1.5 (6.1) (10.1) “There are no accidents, only nature throwing
Nifty 5,532 1.6 (6.1) (9.8) her weight around...Nor can radiation 'alter'
BSE 100 2,265 1.3 (7.3) (10.6)
nature: she will absorb it all.” - Camille Paglia
BSE 200 7,084 1.2 (7.7) (11.0)
CNX Midcap 7,654 0.6 (11.3) (13.6) The worse fears of a major nuclear catastrophe in
BSE Smallcap 7,921 0.3 (13.3) (18.1)
Japan seem to be coming true following a new
Developed market % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD explosion which has struck Japan’s embattled
Dow Jones 11,993 (0.4) 4.7 3.6 Fukushima nuclear power plant. Japanese prime
Nasdaq 2,701 (0.5) 3.2 1.8 minister has confirmed high risk radiation leak
S&P 500 1,296 (0.6) 5.0 3.1 from the Fukushima plant and has urged people to
FTSE 5,775 (0.9) (1.8) (2.1)
stay calm.
CAC 3,878 (1.3) (0.1) 1.9
DAX 6,867 (1.6) (2.1) (0.7) We are set for a gap-down start in India. European
Hang Seng* 22,507 (3.6) (2.0) (2.3)
and US stock futures have also tumbled. Markets
Nikkei* 9,000 (6.5) (12.7) (12.0)
S&P/ASX200* 4,540 (1.9) (4.8) (4.3)
around the world are bracing for another jittery
* Markets are open trading day. Japan's Nikkei ended morning trade
Emerging market % change down 6.5%, falling below 9,000. Other Asian
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD markets, which had been down marginally, have
Shanghai Comp 2,900 (1.3) (0.4) 3.3
seen accelerated losses.
Brazil Bovespa 67,169 0.7 (1.0) (3.1)
Mexico Bolsa 36,206 0.3 (3.9) (6.1) How the global markets cope with the latest bad
Kospi* 1,965 (0.3) (2.6) (4.2)
news from Japan remains to be seen. Indian markets
Micex 1,727 0.4 3.4 2.3
Taiwan* 8,363 (1.8) (4.5) (6.8)
will be at the mercy of developments in Japan and
Straits* 2,988 (1.4) (5.1) (6.3) trend in other overseas markets. The situation
* Markets are open appears to be highly volatile. Long term investors
Institutional activity can look at blue-chip companies in small quantities.
(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD
FIIs (216) 1,554 (376) (8,388) Brace for some panic selling early on even as
MFs (51) - 1,370 2,420 Japan struggles against the nuclear meltdown.
FIIs Prov. 414 Hopefully, there will be some improvement in the
MFs Prov. 8
global sentiment as the day wears on.
Commodities % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Sensex intra-day
Crude (US$/bbl) 100.4 (0.8) 13.3 9.8
Gold (US$/oz) 1,423 (0.2) 3.1 0.2 18,500
Copper (US$/mt) 9,173 0.0 (0.5) (4.9)
Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,525 0.5 8.2 2.6 18,400
Zinc (US$/mt) 2,302 2.2 0.6 (5.8)
Advance/Decline stocks 18,300
(Nos) A B S Total
Adv 155 1,160 203 924 18,200
Dec 45 1,085 195 1,928
18,100
Unch 5 119 21 118
A/D ratio (x)* 3.4 1.1 1.0 0.5
*A/D excluding Unch 18,000
9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30
Trade value
(Rs cr) % chg
Cash NSE 9,634 (13.7)
ADR/GDR
Cash BSE 2,935 (23.4)
Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc
Total Cash 12,568 (16.2)
Dr. Reddys 35.2 0.7 (0.6)
Delivery (%) 43.8 -
HDFC Bk 155.9 0.7 5.8
Derivatives 100,877 (15.9)
ICICI Bk 44.8 (0.6) (0.9)
Currency % change
ITC 3.9 1.7 0.1
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Infosys 67.8 0.4 (1.4)
Rs/US$ 45.07 (0.4) (0.3) (0.8)
Ranbaxy 10.4 3.2 (0.4)
Rs/EUR 62.92 1.0 (3.8) (5.0)
Reliance 45.0 2.6 (0.4)
US$/GBP 1.62 (0.1) 4.0 3.5
Wipro 13.7 1.0 35.3
US$/EUR 1.40 (0.2) 5.7 4.3
SBI 116.7 0.5 1.1
Yen/US$ 81.78 0.2 3.0 (0.8)
Tata Motors 25.9 0.5 (0.8)
Bond market
Sterlite 14.5 2.1 301.2
Last Close (%) Bps chg
L&T 34.8 1.8 0.4
10yr Gsec 7.96 0.01
Call rate 6.85 (0.03)
News

Corporate snippets  Aurobindo Pharma Ltd has engaged an

American consultancy firm to resolve the issue
 Nippon Life, the largest Japanese life insurance of the US Food and Drug Administration's
company, has acquired 26% stake in Reliance import alert on one of its manufacturing unit.
Life for Rs30.6bn, valuing the company at (BL)
Rs115bn. (ET)  Kingfisher Airlines will go ahead with plans to
 Maruti Suzuki has inked a MoU with raise US$300mn through a Global Depository
professional engineering society, Society of Receipt. (ET)
Automotive Engineers, to promote and help  Power Finance Corporation plans to raise
young automobile engineers in conceiving, Rs53bn via issue of infrastructure bonds. (ET)
designing and fabricating Formula-1 style
sports cars. (ET)  SEBI has sought clarifications on the
US$1.22bn takeover of Patni Computer by
 ONGC has made a significant gas discovery in US-based iGate. (BS)
Tripura but did not give reserves the latest find
may contain. (BS)  Private equity firm TPG along with the Chennai-
based Shriram Group has concluded the
 ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of ONGC, transactions for the purchase of the wholesale
has lost bid to buy US energy major Exxon and franchise business and retail undertaking
Mobil's 25% stake in deep-sea oil block in of Vishal Retail for Rs700mn. (BL)
Angola. (ET)
 NHAI has forfeited Patel Engineering's
 SAIL is continuing a joint feasibility study with security deposit of about Rs130mn as the
Japan's Kobe Steel for a steel plant and a 1,000 company withdrew from a project citing an
megawatt gas-based power plant in north error in its own estimation. (BS)
India. (ET)
 Essar Steel is betting big on retail sales of its
 SAIL has started the process of developing steel products and plans to ramp-up its
Chiria reserves in Jharkhand and also Hypermart outlets to 650 by FY 12. (ET)
appointed a global consultant to prepare
detailed project execution report. (BS)  Hotel Leelaventure is in talks with four global
private equity firms and is likely to raise Rs6bn
 SEBI has not yet cleared Vedanta group's open via stake sale in four months. (ET)
offer for Cairn India, a mandatory
requirement for conclusion of London-based  Jindal Steel and Power will start iron ore
mining group's US$9.6 billion acquisition to exports from Bolivia’s El Mutun mines in the
foray into oil sector. (ET) next 2-3 months. (ET)

 Educomp said its ICT division 'Edureach' has  PTC India Financial Services, the non-banking
bagged an order worth Rs680mn from financial institution promoted by PTC India,
Maharashtra government for implementing its has fixed a price band at Rs26-28 a share for
solutions. (FE) its initial public offering to be offered through
100 per cent book-building. (FE)
 Religare Enterprises plans to raise up to
Rs25bn for expansion, including investments in  Henkel India has proposed to sell its
insurance business besides acquisitions. (ET) professional hair care and hair styling brand,
Schwarzkopf Professional. (BL)
 Sebi has cleared the acquisition of Ispat
Industries by JSW Steel, paving the way for  The Supreme Court would decide if the
the acquirer to make a fresh offer for buying up government can impose 50% penalty on two
to 20% stake from public shareholders. (ET) Tata group telco firms for the delay in
payment of their licence fees, based on
 Fortis Healthcare has entered into unilaterally modified terms and conditions of
collaboration with US-based TotipotentRX Cell their licence agreements under UASL.(BS)
Therapy Pvt Ltd to set up stem cell therapy
centres across its select hospitals. (ET)  The retail arm of Aditya Birla Group plans to
open 130 supermarkets and a dozen
 Idea Cellular and handygo jointly announced hypermarkets in the year starting in April.(BS)
the launch of an interactive voice response-
based solution, which aims to provide day-to-
day information to rural masses. (ET)

Market Mantra
News…

Economy snippets

 Finance Minister has made a case for raising

the Tax-GDP ratio to a "reasonable level" of 12-
14% to enhance the government's capability to
fund social sector scheme. (FE)
 The wholesale price index rose 8.31% for the
month ended February from the year before,
defying forecasts and increasing pressure on
the RBI to further tighten monetary policy. (ET)
 The government will protect the interest of the
domestic drug industry while finalising the free
trade pact with European Union. (ET)
 India's power output rose an annual 6.78% in
February, slower than the previous month, due
to coal and gas shortages at some plants. (ET)
 The Union Cabinet is likely to consider a
Constitution Amendment Bill to pave the way
for implementation of Goods and Services Tax,
a new indirect tax regime that will subsume
various levies like excise and service tax. (ET)
 Foodgrains storage capacity in Food
Corporation of India's godowns increased by
about 9% at 30.6mn ton in 2010. (BS)
 The Labour and Employment Ministry said it
favors partial withdrawal from employees
provident fund (EPF) account by
subscribers.(BS)
 Over 0.1mn garment manufacturing units are
expected to be shut for 2 days to protest
against the imposition of 10% excise duty on
branded garments. (BL)

Market Mantra
Technicals

Nifty price/volume Bharti Airtel (SELL, below Rs323, Target

NSE Nifty [N59901] 5456.15, 5502.70, 5411.55, 5445.45, 579768640 -0.89%
Price Avg3(S,100,S,200,S,50) Log IRIS
Rs308): Bharti Airtel has broken down below the
6400 critical support of ‘running triangle’ which was
26
6200 placed at levels of Rs329 with spurt in volumes. As
30
6000 triangles are considered as a continuation pattern,
5800
the earlier down trend is likely to commence from
20 here on. The amplitude of the pattern corresponds
5600
31
to Rs23, giving down side projected target of
5400
Rs308 in the near term. Adding to it after
Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 5200 yesterdays decline stock has closed below the long
Vol Cr
term average of 200 DMA which has also lead to
100 deterioration in long term uptrend. We advise
50.00
going short on Bharti Airtel Mar Futures
below Rs323 with stop loss of Rs329.50 for
10:A S O N D 11:J F M Dly Target of Rs308.

Markets breathe a sigh of relief on Mondays as Renuka Sugars (SELL, below Rs70, Target
Nifty rallied in the later half of trading session to Rs63): On the daily chart, Renuka Sugars is
close above 5,500 levels despite a weak opening. trading near the triangle resistance line, which
As markets have retreated from the support of suggest that the likelihood of further upside over
5,400 levels, it is heading back to test the the short-term has diminished. For now, the
resistance of 5,650 levels in coming days and risk/return of establishing long positions is less
would be critical to watch whether it manages to than ideal. Renuka Sugars has thrice run into the
break the cluster of resistance thereafter. falling resistance line of the Triangle formation and
fallen back, and yesterday’s session was a fourth
Support/Resistance levels attempt to close above the resistance line.
Close Support Resistance Moreover, appearance of falling tops signifies the
Nifty 5,531 5,450 5,556
bulls inability to form higher highs. Based on above
Sensex 18,439 18,230 18,580
mentioned technical evidences, we recommend
traders to short Renuka Sugars March Futures
Abnormal change in delivery
Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg
below Rs70 with stop loss of Rs73 for target
Apil 66.2 22.1 (0.5) of Rs63.
Tatacomm 45.2 16.1 0.6
Harrmalaya 23.5 9.1 (2.1)
Polaris 31.8 12.3 0.1
Suzlon 67.6 14.4 (2.4)

Positive breakout Negative breakout

10 Days Price % 20 Days 10 Days Price % 20 Days
Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg
Oberoi Realty 244.7 238.7 2.5 234.6 Godrej Consumer 353.6 365.7 (3.3) 361.8
Uttam Galva Stee 112.7 110.0 2.4 110.8 Vijaya Bank 73.7 76.0 (3.0) 78.7
Chennai Petroleu 195.9 191.5 2.3 194.8 Ptc India Ltd 84.5 87.0 (3.0) 88.2
Ackruti City Ltd 226.7 221.8 2.2 221.4 Jubilant Life 160.4 165.2 (2.9) 170.3
Acc Ltd 1,010.0 990.5 2.0 995.4 Allied Digital 81.7 84.0 (2.7) 88.0
Cadila Healthcar 771.7 757.5 1.9 765.2 Jyoti Structures 80.6 82.7 (2.6) 86.5
Navneet Publ 55.9 54.9 1.8 54.7 Gujarat Inds 86.9 89.1 (2.5) 90.1
Petronet Lng Ltd 117.2 115.3 1.6 115.4 Indiabulls Finan 140.4 143.8 (2.3) 144.7
Tata Motors Ltd 1,169.0 1,150.7 1.6 1,162.6 Bl Kashyap&Sons 20.1 20.5 (2.3) 22.2
Core Projects & 315.9 311.1 1.5 304.1 Cox & Kings Ltd 382.4 390.9 (2.2) 394.1

Market Mantra
Technicals…

Pivot table Top gainers

CMP Supp Supp Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Company (Rs) 1 2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2
Atlas Copco Ind 2,528.1 14.6 40.7
ABB 746 720 707 734 760 785
Reliance Capital 562.0 9.7 (15.9)
ACC 1,010 996 988 1,004 1,018 1,032
Ganesh Housing 161.8 8.8 (13.4)
Ambuja Cem 128 126 124 127 129 131
Ceat Ltd 104.9 7.6 (21.7)
BHEL 1,976 1,949 1,926 1,972 1,999 2,025
Prajay Engineers 13.0 6.6 (32.4)
BPCL 570 557 549 565 579 592
Bharti 322 319 317 322 324 326
Top losers
Cairn 346 339 336 343 350 356
Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Cipla 300 294 290 298 304 310
Cranes Software 4.9 (4.1) (3.9)
DLF 228 225 223 227 230 233
Gujarat State F 354.1 (3.4) (6.0)
Gail 463 448 438 458 473 488
Uflex Ltd 132.3 (3.4) (34.0)
Grasim 2,380 2,357 2,341 2,373 2,397 2,420
Areva T&D India 244.0 (3.2) (24.9)
HCL Tech 465 455 449 460 470 480
Mic Electronics 23.6 (3.1) (27.9)
HDFC Bank 2,215 2,185 2,168 2,202 2,232 2,262
Hero Honda 1,531 1,509 1,488 1,529 1,552 1,574
Hindalco 209 205 203 208 211 215
Volume Toppers
Company Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg
HUL 278 276 274 278 280 282
Aia Engineering 315.9 1.9 2,481.7
HDFC 671 660 652 668 679 691
Network 18 Finca 160.7 2.5 1,847.9
ICICI Bank 1,019 1,010 1,003 1,016 1,025 1,035
Monsanto India 1,609.1 4.3 869.4
Idea 61 60 59 61 62 63
Dcm Shriram Cons 41.4 (2.2) 778.7
Infosys 3,101 3,052 3,023 3,080 3,129 3,178
Voltamp Transfor 576.3 (0.8) 657.2
ITC 173 171 170 173 175 177
L&T 1,562 1,541 1,528 1,553 1,574 1,596
M&M 661 654 647 661 668 676 Sector watch
Maruti 1,257 1,228 1,209 1,247 1,276 1,305 Price % chg
Nalco 476 461 451 472 486 501 BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth 50 DMA
NTPC 178 176 174 177 179 182 BSE Bankex 12,358 1.4 (0.6) (2.9) 13,000
ONGC 281 278 274 282 285 287 BSE Realty 2,120 0.8 0.3 (22.8) 2,751
Powergrid 99 98 97 99 99 100 BSE HC 5,858 0.8 (2.5) (10.4) 6,384
PNB 1,081 1,072 1,064 1,080 1,089 1,098 BSE Metals 15,676 2.0 (0.5) (4.4) 16,505
Ranbaxy 469 461 456 466 474 482 BSE Oil & Gas 9,937 2.2 4.6 (6.7) 10,181
Rcom 100 97 94 99 103 107 BSE Auto 8,828 0.7 (0.5) (10.6) 9,524
Reliance 1,018 1,000 990 1,010 1,029 1,047 BSE IT 6,241 1.5 (0.1) (2.5) 6,323
Reliance Infra 626 611 602 620 635 649 BSE Power 2,587 1.3 (2.0) (11.8) 2,864
Reiance BSE FMCG 3,516 0.7 7.1 (0.7) 3,532
Power 127 124 122 126 129 133 BSE PSU 8,595 0.9 (0.5) (8.0) 9,230
Satyam 67 66 65 67 68 68 BSE Cap Goods 12,647 0.7 (3.2) (17.8) 14,534
Siemens 858 857 855 858 860 861 BSE CD 5,785 1.2 1.0 (4.5) 6,178
SBI 2,602 2,576 2,559 2,592 2,619 2,645 BSE 200 2,265 1.3 0.6 (7.3) 2,409
SAIL 160 156 154 158 162 165 BSE 500 7,084 1.2 0.4 (7.7) 7,578
Sterlite 163 161 159 162 164 167 BSE Mid Cap 6,561 0.5 (2.1) (13.0) 7,471
Sunpharma 426 418 414 423 430 437 BSE Small Cap 7,921 0.3 (3.0) (13.3) 9,298
Suzlon 46 45 43 46 48 50 CNX 500 4,400 1.3 0.3 (7.6) 4,697
Tata Com. 213 209 207 211 215 218
TCS 1,098 1,070 1,054 1,086 1,114 1,141
Tata Motors 1,176 1,151 1,136 1,165 1,190 1,215
Tata Power 1,251 1,210 1,188 1,233 1,273 1,313
Tata Steel 601 588 580 595 609 622
Unitech 38 37 37 38 39 40
Wipro 456 448 443 453 461 469
Zee 120 118 116 120 122 124 Note:
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. Ideas given under the ‘Technicals’ section are for intraday purpose or up
These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. to a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.
stock or index.

Market Mantra
Deals

Bulk deals
Date Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)
14/3/2011 Suzlon Energy Limited Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company B 39,192 45 1,753.8
14/3/2011 Educomp Solutions Limited Oppenheimer Funds Inc A/C S 760 417 316.8
14/3/2011 Suzlon Energy Limited Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company S 480 46 22.2
14/3/2011 ASIAN OILFIE Fidelity Multitrade Pvt. Ltd. B 100 41 4.1
14/3/2011 B & A LIMITE National Isurance Co Ltd S 40 109 4.4

Insider trades
Transaction Qty Shares Holding after
Company name Acquirer date B/S ('000) transactions (%) transaction (%)
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mandakini P Bhagwati 3/3/2011 B 0.2 34.3 8.8
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mandakini P Bhagwati 4/3/2011 B 0.4 34.8 8.8
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mandakini P Bhagwati 28/02/2011 B 420.3 34.3 8.8
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 1/3/2011 B 0.2 34.5 11.4
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 3/3/2011 B 0.3 34.3 11.4
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 4/3/2011 B 0.5 34.8 11.4
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 28/02/2011 B 0.4 34.3 11.4
Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd Dhudidevi Bhansali 1/3/2011 B 11.3 0.0 1.3
Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd Dhudidevi Bhansali 28/02/2011 B 12.2 0.0 1.3
Biocon Ltd Kiran Mazumdar - Shaw, J M M 4/3/2011 S 64.4 0.0 0.0
Dabur India Ltd Sunil Duggal 28/02/2011 S 10.0 0.0 0.2
Dolat Investments Ltd Pooja V Shah 3/3/2011 B 13.4 0.0 0.3
Dynemic Products Ltd Dynemic Holdings Pvt Ltd 3/3/2011 B 0.3 0.0 1.2
Eicher Motors Ltd K Ramesh S ‐  0.2 0.0 0.0
Frontline Business Solutions Ltd Blackgold Machining Works Pvt 2/3/2011 B 1,217.5 13.7 13.7
Frontline Business Solutions Ltd Frontline Bhoomi Vistar Pvt Ltd 2/3/2011 B 811.7 9.1 9.1
Frontline Business Solutions Ltd Natwar Sureka 2/3/2011 B 243.5 0.0 3.6
Frontline Business Solutions Ltd Technosteel Engineering Pvt Ltd 2/3/2011 B 1,217.5 13.7 13.7
Frontline Business Solutions Ltd Violet Media Pvt Ltd 2/3/2011 B 974.0 10.9 10.9
Gangotri Iron & Steel Company Ltd VIP Finstock Pvt Ltd 5/3/2011 S 25.0 0.1 0.0
Gcv Services Ltd Prakash Dhebar 25/02/2011 B 28.4 0.3 0.3
Gcv Services Ltd Prakash Dhebar HUF 25/02/2011 B 886.2 0.0 0.0
11/05/2010 -
Godfrey Phillips India Ltd Royal Bank of Scotland PLC as B 217.3 2.1 7.0
01/03/2011
Granules India Ltd Shivangi Sharma -- 1/0/1900 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hdfc Bank Ltd Anil Nath 1/3/2011 S 0.5 0.0 0.0
Hdfc Bank Ltd Rajender Sehgal 1/3/2011 S 1.5 0.0 0.0
Intellivate Capital Ventures Ltd Vipul J Modi 1/3/2011 S 1.7 0.0 33.5
Intellivate Capital Ventures Ltd Vipul J Modi 28/02/2011 S 1.5 0.0 33.6
Ivrcl Assets & Holdings Ltd E Sudhir Reddy 21/02/2011 B 1.0 0.0 0.0
Ivrcl Assets & Holdings Ltd E Sudhir Reddy 22/02/2011 B 3.1 0.0 0.1
Ivrcl Assets & Holdings Ltd E Sudhir Reddy 22/02/2011 B 0.9 0.0 0.1
Jai Balaji Industries Ltd Aditya Jajodia 4/3/2011 B 15.1 0.0 4.5
Jai Balaji Industries Ltd Aditya Jajodia 7/3/2011 B 4.4 0.0 4.5
Jai Mata Glass Ltd Growmore Properties Pvt Ltd -- S 1,955.0 2.0 0.0
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd Himanshu V Vasa 3/3/2011 S 2.0 0.0 0.0
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd Mahesh Balasubramanian 4/3/2011 S 2.5 0.0 0.0
Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems Lakshmi Electrical Drives Ltd 7/3/2011 B 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lupin Ltd Udayan S Ambegaokar 8/3/2011 S 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Uday Y Phadke 7/3/2011 S 2.0 0.0 0.0
Meghmani Organics Ltd Ashishbhai N Soparkar 22/02/2011 B 14.7 0.0 0.8
Meghmani Organics Ltd Ashishbhai N Soparkar 23/02/2011 B 30.0 0.0 0.1
Meghmani Organics Ltd Ashishbhai N Soparkar 24/02/2011 B 25.0 0.0 0.0
Motor & General Finance Ltd Grosvenor Estates (P) Ltd 7/3/2011 B 2.6 0.0 3.7
Nandan Exim Ltd Savitridevi V Chirpal 4/3/2011 B 100.0 0.0 0.2
Nandan Exim Ltd Savitridevi V Chirpal 4/3/2011 B 96.9 0.0 0.2
Omkar Overseas Ltd Champalal Agarwal 25/02/2011 B 4.6 0.1 0.0
Omkar Overseas Ltd Champalal Agarwal 25/02/2011 B 4.6 0.1 0.0
Patel Engineering Ltd Pravin Patel 7/3/2011 B 0.5 0.0 0.0
Patel Engineering Ltd Sonal Patel 7/3/2011 B 0.5 0.0 0.5

FII’s trades
Scrip name Volume ('000) Price (Rs) Prem/Disc (%)
Union Bank 98.6 343.1 1.9
Bank of Baroda 19.2 955.0 5.6
Pantaloon 330.0 330.0 25.2

Market Mantra
Derivatives

Nifty volatility Index rose to 23.30 from Nifty snapshot

24.13, increased by 2.55%. Current Previous % Chg
Near month price 5,555 5,460 1.8
 Total Nifty futures shed 0.13mn shares in open Near month Pre/Disc 23.8 14.2 68.2
interest. Mid month price 5,578 5,483 1.7
 Call open interest for March series added Mid month Pre/Disc 46.1 37.1 24.1
0.32mn shares in Open Interest. OI* (‘000) 28,269 28,403 (0.5)
 Put open interest for March series added Volume (‘000) 22,606 28,493 (20.7)

3.58mn shares in Open Interest. PCR (OI) 1.0 1.3 (24.9)

PCR (Vol) 1.0 1.1 (9.7)
 Nifty put call ratio of open interest now stands Roll-over (%) 22.1 21.2 4.1
at 1.33 vs 1.28.
 Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at FII derivative data
1.09 vs 1.13. (Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg

 Maximum open interest in calls for March series Index Futures 2,541 1,279 1,262 (4,396) (1)
Index Option 5,516 5,149 366 (21,013) (1)
is at 5,700 strike prices. Stock Futures 773 843 (69) 10,133 1
 Maximum open interest in Puts for March series Stock Options 234 239 (5) 1,481 4
is at 5,400 strike prices.
 Nifty March 5,500 Call added 0.11mn shares in Institutional activity
open interest. (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

 Nifty March 5,400 Put added 1.28mn shares in FII's (216.3) 1,553.6 (376.4) (8,387.8)
MF's (51.2) - 1,369.5 2,419.5
open interest. FIIs Prov. 414.4
MFs Prov. 7.7
Strategies
 Short KTK Bank March Future in range of Overall market
14-Mar- 11-Mar- 10-Mar- Value %
Rs103.5 – 102.5 for the Target price of Rs97.5 11 11 11 chg
with a Stop loss placed at Rs105.5. Index Future (Rs cr) 14,952 18,397 12,960 (18.7)
Lot size: 2165 Stock Future (Rs cr) 11,610 12,962 10,930 (10.4)
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,990 and Index Options (Rs cr) 71,560 85,744 38,812 (16.5)

net maximum loss of Rs6,495. Stock Options (Rs cr) 2,755 2,834 1,863 (2.8)
Index Future (Cont '000) 582 726 509 (19.8)
Stock Future (Cont '000) 459 515 432 (10.8)
 Short Tata Chemicals March Future in range Index Options (Cont '000) 2,589 2,187 2,144 18.4
of Rs325 - 323 for the Target price of Rs315 Stock Options (Cont '000) 104 206 90 (49.8)
with a Stop loss placed at Rs328. PCR (OI) 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.3
Lot size: 500 PCR (VOI) 0.4 0.4 0.4 (5.1)

Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs5,000 and

net maximum loss of Rs2,500.

Nifty open interest chart Nifty strikes open interest

900 Nifty 6,500 14,000 OI in ('000) Call Put
OI & Vol
(lacs) 12,000
750 6,000
10,000
600
5,500 8,000
450
5,000 6,000
300
4,000
150 4,500
2,000
0 4,000 0
16-Dec-10 13-Jan-11 10-Feb-11 10-Mar-11 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900

Sector-wise OI
12 % Chg
8
4
0
-4
Textile
Power

Sugar
Metals
FMCG

Total Future
Real Estate
IT

Others
Cement

Logistics
Pharma
goods &
Automobiles

Telecom
Media
Capital

Fertilizers
Banking

Oil & Gas

Infra

Market Mantra
Derivatives…

Futures open interest gainers

Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Suzlon 120,692.0 19.3 46.7 (2.5) 60,880.0 307.0 (0.3)
Petronet 4,650.0 14.9 118.3 0.0 2,618.0 (52.9) (1.0)
Nationalum 3,932.0 14.0 446.7 311.7 1,484.0 70.2 29.5
Relcapital 7,045.0 12.6 564.9 9.9 17,891.5 78.7 (2.9)
Indianb 1,149.0 8.8 217.0 (0.1) 301.0 54.4 (1.8)
Tatachem 1,071.0 8.2 327.4 (0.8) 158.0 (46.3) (2.5)
Ashokley 11,192.0 8.1 54.0 4.0 6,392.0 (22.9) (0.4)
Cumminsind 260.0 7.7 676.2 (1.4) 66.5 (47.2) (4.8)
Educomp 4,572.5 7.3 424.6 1.4 3,660.5 61.0 (3.1)
Rcom 30,368.0 7.2 101.4 4.8 25,220.0 6.5 (1.0)
Pfc 755.0 5.7 242.5 (0.6) 469.0 22.8 (1.9)

Futures open interest losers

Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Bpcl 1,558.5 (10.1) 572.4 4.0 1,333.5 5.7 (1.9)
Optocircui 644.0 (4.5) 262.4 3.0 305.0 263.1 (1.6)
Bpcl 1,558.5 (10.1) 572.4 4.0 1,333.5 5.7 (1.9)
Unionbank 1,029.0 (9.5) 337.8 4.1 808.0 121.4 (0.5)
Bhusanstl 940.0 (8.2) 435.1 3.5 617.0 (9.9) 0.0
Tatatea 4,548.0 (6.4) 102.6 0.7 4,976.0 (69.2) 1.0
Lupin 2,146.0 (5.8) 396.6 1.9 802.0 45.8 (1.3)
Ranbaxy 1,689.0 (5.4) 471.4 2.4 1,116.5 (15.3) (2.2)
Gspl 4,906.0 (5.3) 100.1 3.5 1,714.0 11.3 (0.1)
Cipla 3,863.0 (5.1) 301.5 1.6 1,592.0 (15.0) (1.3)
Lt 3,955.9 (5.1) 1,571.5 1.7 1,398.0 (23.7) (9.3)

Most active stock calls Most active nifty calls

% Volume
Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Tatasteel 600 1,117.5 (3.6) 19.1 3,862.0 5500 6,365.7 1.7 135.3 16,488.1
Reliance 1000 1,102.3 (7.2) 36.9 3,922.0 5600 6,087.1 (1.4) 78.8 15,041.4
Tatasteel 620 1,265.5 (8.9) 10.4 2,140.0 5700 6,479.0 (1.3) 38.0 9,199.5
Relcapital 540 250.5 25.3 43.0 2,253.0 5800 5,566.3 4.7 15.4 6,805.2
Reliance 1020 347.3 1.5 24.3 2,463.0 5900 5,248.8 13.4 6.1 4,593.6
Suzlon 50 13,368.0 30.8 0.8 2,977.0 5400 3,100.2 (11.6) 206.5 4,152.0
Tatamotors 1200 510.5 (6.0) 22.1 1,939.0 6000 3,259.4 0.8 2.9 1,752.3
Relcapital 560 294.5 24.0 30.5 1,913.0 5300 1,568.0 (3.4) 286.3 516.0
Sbin 2700 302.8 1.9 40.0 1,474.0 5800 1,514.0 12.0 62.0 477.8
Ifci 55 12,168.0 2.4 1.6 1,866.0 5500 985.5 20.0 209.6 468.4

Most active stock puts Most active nifty puts

% Volume
Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Reliance 1000 707.5 82.6 12.5 3,138.0 5400 10840.9 13.5 53.2 15566.5
Tatasteel 580 671.0 37.6 8.5 1,386.0 5500 5849.6 24.5 80.5 13076.6
Tatasteel 600 703.5 1.6 15.5 943.0 5300 8482.7 3.2 35.0 9999.6
Reliance 980 345.5 45.9 7.8 1,168.0 5200 7041.5 5.4 22.7 7859.9
Sbin 2500 146.0 7.0 31.9 845.0 5100 6571.7 12.8 13.8 5799.7
Tatamotors 1100 365.5 9.8 18.0 878.0 5000 5001.4 (8.6) 8.2 4758.0
Suzlon 45 3,128.0 8.0 1.3 1,252.0 5600 2159.8 21.2 121.9 2399.2
Reliance 960 330.5 47.4 4.6 933.0 4900 3373.2 (2.2) 4.6 2210.5
Tatamotors 1150 222.0 39.0 34.5 738.0 5300 718.6 79.7 78.4 700.2
Hindalco 200 1,098.0 10.5 3.6 398.0 4800 3088.8 0.3 2.7 654.3
*OI= Open Interest

Market Mantra
Mutual Funds

Fund focus
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Invest
Fund manager Sankaran Naren Min investment Rs5,000
Latest NAV Rs103.8 Entry load Nil
NAV 52 high/low Rs112/87 Exit load 1% before 1 year
Latest AUM Rs2,785cr Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty
Class Equity – diversified Asset allocation Equity (81%), Cash (19%)
Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 1.85%

Top Recommended Funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)
Assets NAV
Equity – Diversified (Rs Cr) (Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr
ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) 2,785 103.8 0.1 (0.9) (5.1) (2.6) 10.9 132.7 39.9 105.5
Reliance Equity Opportunities – (G) 2,259 15.6 0.3 (0.8) (7.5) (11.4) 8.2 122.8 34.6 --
HDFC Top 200 (G) 9,482 201.5 (0.2) (0.8) (8.4) (7.4) 12.0 151.2 48.3 117.6

Equity – Thematic
Reliance Pharma Fund (G) 544 50.9 1.0 (2.8) (8.1) (3.4) 11.9 204.1 126.3 165.2
ICICI Pru Tech Fund (G) 228 18.1 (0.7) (2.2) (4.5) 6.3 23.7 232.2 36.6 66.9
Franklin FMCG Fund (G) 46 63.9 0.5 3.1 (4.9) (5.7) 21.2 119.9 71.5 80.1

Equity – Tax saving

Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) 1,296 21.2 (0.2) 0.2 (7.4) (7.8) 14.5 142.2 39.9 106.1
HDFC Tax Saver (G) 2,767 220.5 (0.2) (2.1) (9.2) (10.0) 9.3 158.7 40.2 77.1
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,320 133.0 (0.4) (2.2) (9.0) (8.7) 6.9 173.4 37.4 61.4

Hybrid
HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 5,761 203.0 0.1 (0.6) (5.8) (6.6) 12.8 148.3 53.5 117.9
HDFC MIP – LTP (G) 9,996 22.6 0.1 0.1 (1.0) (0.4) 7.7 48.4 38.8 66.2
Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 806 21.0 (0.3) (3.2) (9.6) (11.7) 3.5 122.0 48.3 106.2

Debt – Money market

HDFC Cash Mgmt Fund – SP (G) 4,310 20.4 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 11.3 21.1 40.5
SBI Magnum Insta Cash (G) 4,387 21.7 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 6.3 10.7 20.1 38.4
Reliance Money Manager (G) 10,000 1,317.1 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.0 11.4 21.4 --

Debt – Floating rate

Reliance Floating Rate Fund (G) 1,846 144.8 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.5 11.7 21.8 --
Kotak Floater LTP (G) 2,339 15.5 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.6 6.4 12.0 22.2 42.8
Tata Floater Fund (G) 5,923 14.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.5 12.0 22.3 42.1

NFO Update
#
Fund name Open date Close date Type Class
ICICI Prudential Series 56 - 1 Year Plan A 10-Mar 16-Mar CE Debt - FMP
Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan-Series CU 8-Mar 16-Mar CE Debt - FMP
UTI FMP- Yearly Series - March 2011 (YFMP 03 / 11) 16-Mar 17-Mar CE Debt - FMP
ICICI Prudential Series 55 - 6 Months Plan C 9-Mar 18-Mar CE Debt - FMP
ICICI Prudential Series 55 - 13 Months Plan A 16-Mar 22-Mar CE Debt - FMP
#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

Recent Actions
 HDFC Prudence Fund declares 35% dividend. The record date is March 17, 2011.

 Reliance Mutual Fund declares dividend under Reliance Vision Fund (40%) and Reliance Diversified Power (15%) Fund. The
record date is March 18, 2011.

 SBI Magnum Tax Gain 1993 Fund declares 40% dividend. The record date is March 18, 2011.

 Principal PNB FMP- 91 Days- Series XXVII declares dividend. The record date is March 16, 2011.

 ICICI Prudential Quarterly Interval Plan II declares 7% dividend. The record date is March 16, 2011.

 Kotak Quarterly Interval Plan Series 1 declares dividend. The record date is March 16, 2011.

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.

Market Mantra
House Recommendations

House Recommendations
The large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis-à-vis the Nifty
respectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute return
expectations.

Top Large-cap Buys

Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
Bharti Airtel Telecom Neutral 322 1,221.9
L&T Infrastructure Positive 1,562 951.1
M&M Auto Positive 661 406.1
REC NBFC Positive 228 225.5
SBI Banking Positive 2,602 1,652.3
Sterlite Industries Metals Neutral 163 547.8
Tata Steel Metals Neutral 601 576.6
Source: India Infoline Research

Best Mid-cap Buys

Stock Sector CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
OnMobile Telecom 230 13.6
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 117 88.0
Radico Khaitan Breweries 133 17.7
Unity Infra Infrastructure 56 4.2
Yes Bank Banking 271 94.2
Source: India Infoline Research

Top Large-cap Sells

Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
ACC Cement Negative 1,010 189.6
NALCO Metals Neutral 476 306.8
Source: India Infoline Research

Market Mantra
Economy

GDP growth (Quarterly) Inflation

GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS) 12.0 (%)
14,000 13.0
(Rs bn) (%)
13,000 10.0
12,000
11.0 8.0
11,000
10,000 6.0
9,000 9.0
4.0
8,000
7,000 2.0
7.0
6,000
0.0
5,000
4,000 5.0 (2.0)
Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
G-Secs yield M3 growth
10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)
9.5 65,000 25.0
(%) 1 Yr Gsecs (Rs bn) (%)
60,000
8.5
20.0
55,000
7.5
50,000 15.0
6.5 45,000
40,000 10.0
`
5.5
35,000
5.0
4.5
30,000

3.5 25,000 0.0

May-10
Mar-10

Nov-10
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10

Sep-10

Dec-10
Feb-11
Jul-10
Nov-09

Nov-10

Mar-11
Apr-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Jan-11
Jul-09

CRR, Repo IIP and Six key infra industry growth

7.0 (%) CRR Repo 12 IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%) 20.0

6.5 18.0
10
16.0
6.0 14.0
8
12.0
5.5 6 10.0
8.0
5.0 4
6.0
4.0
4.5 2
2.0
4.0 0 0.0
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Sep-10

Jan-11
Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10

Mar-11
Apr-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Jan-11
Jul-09

Market Mantra
 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45

FDI

0
200
400
600
800

(400)
(200)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Sep-05
Jan-09
May-09
Mar-06
Mar-09

(US$ bn)
Jul-09

(Rs bn)

Market Mantra
Fiscal deficit
(US$ mn)
Economy…

May-09 Sep-06
Sep-09
Jul-09 Mar-07
Nov-09
Sep-09
Sep-07
Jan-10
Nov-09
Mar-08
Trade deficit (Quarterly)

Jan-10 Mar-10
Sep-08
Mar-10 May-10

May-10 Jul-10 Mar-09

Jul-10 Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-10
Nov-10 Mar-10
Nov-10
Jan-11 Sep-10
Jan-11
0
5
10
15
20

150
200
250
300
350
(10)
(5)

20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Mar-09
Sep-05
Jan-09
Apr-09
Mar-09 Mar-06
Jun-09
(US$ bn)

(US$ bn)

May-09
Jul-09 Sep-06
Jul-09
Sep-09
Aug-09 Mar-07
Nov-09
RBI forex reserves

Oct-09

Currency movement
Dec-09 Sep-07

INR/USD
INR/GBP
Dec-09
Feb-10
Feb-10 Mar-08
Apr-10
Apr-10
May-10 Sep-08
May-10
Jul-10
Jul-10 Mar-09
Aug-10
Current account deficit (Quarterly)

Sep-10

INR/EURO
Oct-10 Sep-09

INR/100 Yen
Nov-10
Dec-10
Mar-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11 Sep-10
Event Calender

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

March 01 March 02 March 03 March 04 March 05
- India Jan exports - US total vehicle - US initial jobless - US change in
yoy% sales claims nonfarm payrolls
32.4% vs 36.4% 13.3m vs 12.5m 368k vs 391k 192k vs 36k
- India Jan - US challenger - Nonfarm - US
imports yoy% job cuts yoy productivity unemployment
13.1% vs -11.1% 20.5% vs -46.1% 2.6% vs 2.6% rate
- US construction 8.9% vs 9%
spending mom% - US Factory
-0.7% vs -2.5% orders
3.1% vs 0.2%

March 07 March 08 March 09 March 10 March 11 March 12

- US consumer - US wholesale - US trade balance - India Jan IIP
credit inventories $-46.3b vs -$40.6b data
$5.01b vs $6.09b 1.1% vs 1% - US initial jobless 3.7% vs 1.6%
claims - US advance
397k vs 368k retail sales
1% vs 0.3%
- US business
inventories
0.9% vs 0.8%
March 14 March 15 March 16 March 17 March 18 March 19
- India Feb WPI - US empire - US housing - RBI policy meet
data manufac starts mom% - US IIP data
8.31% vs 8.23% - Import price - US building - US consumer
index mom permits mom% price index mom
- FOMC rate - US leading
decision indicators

March 21 March 22 March 23 March 24 March 25 March 26

- US existing - US house price - US durable US GDP qoq
home sales mom index goods
- US initial jobless
claims

March 28 March 29 March 30 March 31

- US pending - US consumer - US Mortgage US initial jobless
home sales mom confidence applications claims
- Challenger job US factory orders
cuts yoy

Blue: Economic data, Black: results

Market Mantra
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

Buy – Absolute return of over +10%

Market Performer – Absolute return between -10% to +10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

Published in 2011. © India Infoline Ltd 2011

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