Probability Exercises 1 The National Sporting Goods Association conducted a survey of persons 7 years of age or older about participation in sports activities (Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2002). The total population in this age group was reported at 248.5 million, with 120.9 million male and 127.6 million female. The number of Participants for the top five sports activities appears here. [ieee P: nts.(millions) | lActivity Male Female ‘Bicycle riding 22.2 21.0 Camping 25.6 243 Exercise walking 28.7 57.7 | Exercising with equipment) 20.4 24.4 ‘Swimming : 26.4 34.4 A. Fora randomly selected female, estimate the probability of participation in each of the sports activities. B. For a randomly selected male, estimate the probability of participation in each of the sports activities. C. For a randomly selected person, what is the probability the person participates in exercise walking? D. Suppose you just happen to see an exercise walker going by. What is the probability it is a woman? What is the probability the walker is a man? A survey of magazine subscribers showed that 45.8% rented a car during the past 12 months for business reasons, 54% rented a car during the past 12 months for personal reasons, and 30% rented a’car during the past 12 months for both business and personal reasons ‘A. What is the probability that a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months for business or personal reasons? 8. What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past 12 months for either business or personal reasons? The following table gives the status of prisoners in a particular jail Type of Crime Status Burglary | Drugs | Vandalism Released | 735 632 ani Received | 203 131 61|Compute (a) The joint probability of a prisoner arrested for burglary and released (b) The marginal probability of Burglary (c) P(A prisoner was arrested for burglary given that he has. been released) A local bank reviewed its credit card policy with the intention of recalling some of 1c eait cards. In the past approximately 5% of cardholders defaulted, leaving the bank unable to collect the outstanding balance. Hence, management established a prior probability of .05 that any particular cardholder will default. The bank also found that the probability of missing a monthly payment is 0.20 for customers who do not default. Of course, the probability of missing a monthly Payment for those who default is 1 A. Given that a customer missed one or more monthly payments, compute the posterior probability that the customer will default. B. The bank would like to recall its card if the probability that a customer will Gefault is greater than .20. Should the bank recall its card if the customer misses a monthly payment? Why or why not? A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project The firm's Hanagement initially felt they had a 50 -50 chance of getting the project However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 75% of the Successful bids and 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information. ‘A. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information)? B. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful? ©. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional informationei ae __POLuTtion lo Wont: oe Enures Rewer Mave Fenave Cacce 2\-2| 20-4 avofia-6 Canewt (oarust Ex ©) Eowencet Sin @b-blane-S Puecaaty. = (25> 519 /eAes O-349% " P(cs nme) =| 534/864 = 666-8225 Ro Ramee) , SPAS - O-b498 SMprUes Pinas) Xi Reb Qe ha 4: Bd paced wt PLR on = ROO FRU — PLY = OSS 4O-S4— 0-30 > 0-648 CUDA wk neko con)s LH OLR wT © [-DGe O-S02 — C suse --3 (> = cisB_|Brecraer “Denes Rerencen 35 682 an \>3& _Recewep 203 V3\ 61 BAS Benne: | OR eea haps seta elt eS QNake = Oe ee AS | AN 0 ie Glo Ms | ase 0-41 54 A TD: ConMalte Det Ds Door wk dealt Macatee: Mou lily, peek PW) 0-05 MD)= O95 (ahora cass PMD) = | Ge ty Me) ler EIA) D “OS 1-0 705 “2QRR aie ae 0-2 aan ee Aat 724 Al @(d\Hy- 20-822 BEN cule clo) = 2081) oe)Br Se. Gd duce Ms F: Qa Fads (Nr SRE ew makid) cadaver of allukody tlesbhur) LT: Addked wf sagt UiSjo 0 Ceje=05S eee aie oa A] Ols)- Os G] Pla\si- 0-48 C| 0) S\3) E Pte) e(Z\e) P(TRE) PLT) S Os 0-35 OiaG 0.50. F 0-5 0-40 0: 200 O24 0-S35 CCS15 j= (Sone)Discrete Random Variables: Class Exercises Twenty percent of automobiles are not covered by insurance. On a particular day, 10 automobiles are involved in traffic accidents. ‘A. What is the expected number of these automobiles that are not covered by insurance? What are the variance and standard deviation? What is the probability that 1 do not have insurance? What is the probability that at least 1 do not have insurance? von nN Phone calls arrive at the rate of 48 per hour at the reservation desk for Regional Airways. Compute the probability of receiving three calls in a 5-minute interval of time. Compute the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in 15 minutes. !f no calls are currently being processed, what is the probability that the agent can take 3 minutes for personal time without being interrupted by a call? What is the average number of calls in 30 minutes? The variance? Suppose no calls are currently on hold and the agent takes 5 minutes to complete the current call How many callers do you expect to be waiting by that time? What is the probability that none will be waiting? 9 Om> mm 3. Ace Ad agency is a small start-up with only two clients, represented by X and Y, ‘operating in different industries. For the two clients, Ace Places ads in the local Paper's classified section of the Saturday edition. X weekly ad spends in Rs.'000 's 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 (with some rounding off). Similarly, Y weekly ad spends in Rs.'000 is 0 and 1. Based on past data, Ace has created the frequency distribution and subsequently the probability distributions for X and Y x f(x) Y (Y) 0 10 0 70 1 20 1 30 2 10 3 30 4 30 Compute the probability distribution of each random variable Compute the Expected Values of each random variable Compute the Variances of each random variable ‘Assuming X and Y are independent, compute the joint distribution com>Diseete Posongurcr Wire rurie \. ee & Comer wilt frobeblk, 0-8 Cin Ge ee : O-.v Weld Cont tne A dokdhad en le ae Ty eae tes “lek 4's) wk cel, Sha: Re (Nea eS Rio, 9D \Re a fre | Recep lO 0-25 2 ae Ee We \-6 Bl eS 8Y Be 2 \r teh d eis et Cy zor dre og = 0-284 | perarye 1 CCS) eb EYEE. Foe OsWier he \ be OO Xa TW Cash thuv2 Sm & Xa W (setts) “WE Alas aah DU Rees ae aie eee Onl) ay (ch ae P( x= toy = we Jol O- 194K Tee ey ee ee Pixs dy = whe = O-0804 aaa ot pe 4s ws 4S Tee tek 2 Teta se te TY [ieee Pixeo) = He. 0-0183 o\Se Xe O01 P(x) 0: 5202-20\ N 0 My 0-4 0-8 XP XPD. (PS Lo 4 Py Yared) Cen), oo. 6 0.625 U0: Or O-4so ge Ost 3 ON Oubes 3 02 O-4 0.09¢ 4 0-3 1:2 O44 Eixy- =O & VUXY= Bay. Ca 2 Nin}: 0} b-0F -m 03-2 1 [0-8 -ob -03 04 ©. po-.s0 0-063 V0 ae 0: \43 Kee oe Oe O20 || O10 -% -lo -20 \-&sSo 0-210 4 ToTar “2\} 0-9 “D8 0-3 20)Continuous Random Variables: Class Exercises Delta Airlines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5 minutes on one of its routes. ‘Suppose we believe that actual flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours and 2 hours, 20 minutes. A. Show the graph of the probability density function for flight time. B. What is the probability that the flight will be no more than 5 minutes late? C. What is the expected flight time? Given that z is a standard normal random variable, compute A.P(z<=-1.0) B.P(2>-1.0) C.P(25 %)= 0-9290 C(O 2 te eo eee eat PiGz.< 2) 002835 =) Foe —\-9h Xe Ter spk os Me lckea Xa nF, w) Ss Ste moa Ste NUK = So)e (ie 2); tes 3s) = 0-5 —O-LNS =O-ORRS Q(X > 109) = we-33) _ 9(2 > IS) =dS- 03944 09) = 012 >) ca P(X > xo} “= BD is eye 2a) 0 ie ey ke > oe era 3 Xe as. => Reon eels a~ Oeck ba, §- ‘ denbowky cbt) geseah Xv Erg ( i217 10 EL ON Nee en es Ly P(x >i). {We aye ec = DNS pies Xe ee Ke) = (eo) -(-e*) - 0-246) Mee an) Vee he Mh oly phe A Reese je 0 al Prokbd®y Qh missay yer Pgh - [9.394 -0-22S° X2 BQ Wear ghar Ceca SNS) Hehe hice Wenn Y~ @xe( Ss)s f= se. ert (RAEI. Plx.dj= te en . = eetinee P(Y > D-2SW = I- plae0-2S) 2 ett = 0.2528 4 W294, 0.085) 23y 2a 23h Asie P(2BV << K < 2-34) = 2:R\= 2-4 ™e i See ol Ne? z x-Y <. Zee 0-0385 TG 0-035 2 (A O8ns <2 55 0-82) Fl % 0728349 0-s8asOB We eS re Ov Ga Nel Se CLT X% N(224, py Hk oe Gs 00183) V2 Ww 2 eS 2s) 2-34 - 2) fe 4 = QC 2:3: 2: 2 eee ar 9-03 ZU = tte 2-26) == 2% O-4RE) a 0-930 —9.09-0 week PAP eh res i SS % oS 4S =e 2 * o=\ >a ao oO Od 720 | se Face Ue Uobbs +02 2 1.4 n= 1909 ~ 19 ~o| Perera 5 Souqlt 8iyt qv ber 43 Qe Cregoate 4 Pee lo hed te ‘upline p> O-+6 = kas e ae Suez. 00214 NICER) O96 gy - [ee Cie wee oe S52 ny 4b as Pro neers, 0: O2\4) OEP |: Adak q 20-39%) eC \ho) = 2% -A\Ar eae RGPlaybill magazine reported that the mean annual household income of its readers is $119,155 (Playbill, January 2006). Assume this estimate of the mean annual household income is based on a sample of 80 households, and based on past Studies, the population standard deviation is known to be $30,000 Develop a 90% confidence interval estimate of the population mean Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean Develop a 99% confidence interval estimate of the population mean, Discuss what happens to the width of the confidence interval as the Confidence level is increased. Does this result seem reasonable? Explain pom> The mean number of hours of flying time for pilots at Continental Airlines is 49 hours per month (The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2003). Assume that this mean was based on actual fiying times for a sample of 100 Continental pilots and that the sample standard deviation was 8.5 hours, ‘A. What is the 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean flying time for the pilots? 5. The mean number of hours of flying time for pilots at United Airlines is 36 hours per month. Use your results from part (a) to discuss differences between the flying times for the pilots at the two airlines. The Wall Street Journal reported United Airlines as having the highest labour cost among all airines. Does the information in this exercise provide insight as to why United Airlines might expect higher labour costs? According to statistics reported on CNBC, a surprising number of motor vehicles are not covered by insurance (CNBC, February 23, 2006). Sample results, consistent with the CNBC report, showed 46 of 200 vehicles were not covered by insurance. A. Develop a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion. B. What should be the sample size so that the margin of error is 2%? An online survey by ShareBuilder, a retirement plan provider, and Harris Interactive reported that 60% of female business owners are not confident they are saving enough for retirement (SmallBiz, Winter 2006). Suppose we would like to do @ follow-up study to determine how much female business owners are saving each year toward retirement and want to use $100 as the desired margin of error for an interval estimate of the population mean. Use $1100 as a planning value for the standard deviation and recommend a sample size for a 90% confidence interval is desired for the mean amount savedA by [weep Ess mation FERS Awagul aig atat eter 4 a Waghtl meds T+ F200 *K=: Fares we 30 OL Eskadk X i St» Encore Of Neaw WM) Sua in > 39 (vay Ra Md) (wy (vw Crap care dood Crdied Vol Menge Ennan Ae, Gabon Wed Sige Juana leo d Cakiend Wo Menge A Enron AS CR. Sass T ]AK = 20,000 JAW =3354-192. 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Carpetland salespersons average $8000 per week in sales. Steve Contois, the firm's vice president, proposes a compensation plan with new selling incentives. Steve hopes that the results of a trial selling period will enable him to conclude that the compensation plan in-creases the average sales per salesperson. A. Develop the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses. B. What is the Type | error in this situation? What is the probability of making such an error? What are the consequences of making this error? C. What are the consequences of making a Type Il error? Suppose a new production method will be implemented if a hypothesis test supports the conclusion that the new method reduces the mean operating cost per hour, A. _ State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses if the mean cost for the current production method is $220 per hour. B. What are the consequences of making a Type | error? C. What are the consequences of making a Type Il error? The average annual total return for U.S. Diversified Equity mutual funds from 1999 to 2003 was 4.1% (BusinessWeek, January 26, 2004). A researcher would like to conduct a hypothesis test to see whether the returns for mid-cap growth funds over the same period are significantly different from the average for U.S. Diversified Equity funds. ‘A sample of 40 mid-cap growth funds provides a mean return of 3.4%. Assume the population standard deviation for mid-cap growth funds is known from Previous studies to be 2%. At a = 0.05, what is your conclusion? A manufacturer claims that the range for their portable phone is 150 feet. An independent testing lab found that a random sample of 25 of these phones worked over an average distance of 142 feet, with a standard deviation of 12 feet. Is there evidence that the claim is false? Test at alpha = 5% The city-state has decided to provide the most comprehensive emergency medical services in the world. The mobile medical units are managed by a private company. The concern is that the vendor is not meeting the service| Ke Arrow \ \a ieee a) w Syed 4 os h Moe Te Vege Tee ts S.\ 3 Py dey Yo Cheah on ota Prole bOK \ dow g to. K & Ne deybus Vo [ake & w wh bane 4 X2 CBee pr pak be e Gebss Quse Al Mes th < Be82 Ya T > Roo Rl Reydeg Wo ule a bow Prob. 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