P2.
Discrete random variables
1. A random variable X has the following probability distribution
a. Determine a and b such that P(X ≤ 2)= P(X ≥ 2)
b. Determine the expected value, the variance and the standard deviation of X
manually.
c. Repeat b. using the graphical calculator.
2. The code of an oldfashioned bicycle lock consists of 3 digits from 0 to 9.
a. What is the probability that the code does not contain a '0'?
b. Let Y be the discrete variable indicating the number of '0' in the code.
Determine the probability distribution.
c. What is the expected number of '0' in the code? Interpret the number. Also
determine the standard deviation of Y.
3. From a deck of cards (13 hearts, 13 diamonds, 13 clubs, 13 spades), 6 cards
are drawn without replacement. 𝑋 represents the number of clubs () cards
drawn in this experiment.
a. Determine the probability distribution for X.
b. Find information about the hypergeometric distribution.
c. Explain why we can not use the binomial distribution to solve a.
d. Determine the probability distribution for X in case 6 cards are drawn with
replacement.
e. Compare your results in a. and d.
4. The daily demand in a shop for a certain product is a discrete random variable 𝑋
with the following probability distribution:
k 0 1 2 3 4
P(X=k) 0.25 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10
a. Determine the mode.
b. Determine the quartiles.
c. Set up a boxplot.
d. Determine the mean manually.
e. Determine the standard deviation manually using the definition and using the
convenience formula.
f. Check your results in d. and e. using the graphical calculator.
5. A portfolio's value increases by 18% during a financial boom and by 9% during
normal times. It decreases by 12% during a recession. What is the expected return
on this portfolio if each scenario is equally likely?
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6. While it is often assumed that the probabilities of having a boy or a girl are the
same, the actual probability of having a boy is slightly higher at 0.51. Suppose a
couple plans to have 3 kids.
a. Use the binomial model to calculate the probability that two of them will be
boys.
b. Write out all possible orderings of 3 children, 2 of whom are boys. Use these
scenarios to calculate the same probability from part a. but using the addition
rule for disjoint outcomes.
c. If we wanted to calculate the probability that a couple who plans to have 8 kids
will have 3 boys, briefly describe why the approach from part b. would be more
tedious than the approach from part a.
7. Let 𝑋 ∼ ℬ𝑖𝑛(100, 0.2). Determine
a. E[𝑋] and Var[𝑋];
b. P[𝑋 = 20];
c. P[𝑋 ≥ 20];
d. P[𝑋 ≤ 25|𝑋 ≥ 15];
e. the quartiles of 𝑋.
8. Data collected by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
(SAMSHA) suggests that 69.7% of 18-20 year olds consumed alcoholic beverages
in 2008.
a. Suppose a random sample of ten 18-20 year olds is taken. Is the use of the
binomial distribution appropriate for calculating the probability that exactly
six consumed alcoholic beverages? Explain.
b. Calculate the probability that exactly 6 out of 10 randomly sampled 18-20 year
olds consumed an alcoholic drink.
c. What is the probability that exactly four out of ten 18-20 year olds have not
consumed an alcoholic beverage?
d. What is the probability that at most 2 out of 5 randomly sampled 18-20 year
olds have consumed alcoholic beverages?
e. What is the probability that at least 1 out of 5 randomly sampled 18-20 year
olds have consumed alcoholic beverages?
f. We now consider a random sample of fifty 18-20 year olds. How many people
would you expect to have consumed alcoholic beverages? And with what
standard deviation?
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9. The National Vaccine Information Center estimates that 90% of Americans have
had chickenpox by the time they reach adulthood.
a. Is the use of the binomial distribution appropriate for calculating the
probability that exactly 97 out of 100 randomly sampled American adults had
chickenpox during childhood ?
b. Calculate the probability that exactly 97 out of 100 randomly sampled
American adults had chickenpox during childhood.
c. What is the probability that exactly 3 out of a new sample of 100 American
adults have not had chickenpox in their childhood?
d. What is the probability that at least 1 out of 10 randomly sampled American
adults have had chickenpox?
e. What is the probability that at most 3 out of 10 randomly sampled American
adults have not had chickenpox?
f. We now consider a random sample of 120 American adults. How many people
in this sample would you expect to have had chickenpox in their childhood?
And with what standard deviation?
10. A newsvendor knows that the demand for The Guardian on a randomly chosen
day is a random variable 𝑋 with probability distribution:
𝑥 10 11 12 13 14 15
P[𝑋 = 𝑥] 0.1 𝑎 2𝑎 3𝑎 0.2 0.1
a. Determine the mode of 𝑋.
b. Calculate E[𝑋] and Var[𝑋].
c. Draw F(x).
d. Draw the boxplot of 𝑋.
e. Calculate P[12 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 14].
f. Find E(X | X ≥ 12), the expected demand for the Guardian if this demand
exceeds 12 newspapers.
g. Solve a-f in case the probability distribution is given by
P[𝑋 = 𝑥] = 𝑎(𝑥 − 9)(16 − 𝑥) for 𝑥 ∈ {10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}.
11. A class consists of 10 pupils. In front of the class there is a box with 10 papers
in it, each carrying the name of one pupil. The teacher selects each pupil once
by successively drawing at random a paper out of the box (drawing without
replacement). Harry is one of the pupils in the class. Calculate the expectation
and the standard deviation of the number of students that are selected before
Harry is selected.
12. A file contains 10 invoices. There are 4 invoice with some mistakes. During an
inspection, the auditor draws a random sample of 3 invoices.
a. Set up the probability distribution for X being the number of invoices with
mistakes in a sample of 3 invoices.
b. Determine the expected value and the standard deviation of X.
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13. In a milk factory, packs of one liter milk are packed on a conveyer belt. An
inspector randomly picks each time one pack and measures the content. Assume
that 10% of the packs are underfilled. Let X be the number of packs the
inspector needs to check until he encounters a pack that is underfilled.
a. State the possible outcomes for X.
b. Determine P(X =1), P(X = 2) and P(X = 3).
c. Determine a formula for P(X = x) for a possible outcome x.
d. Determine P(X ≤ 20).
14. A multiple-choice test consists of 40 questions, each with three possible
answers. Each question has only one correct answer. To succeed, one must
answer at least 25 questions right. No points are deducted for incorrectly
answered questions. Donald participates in the test without any preparation
and, therefore, answers each question at random.
a. What is the probability that Donald answers exactly 15 questions right?
b. What is the probability that Donald fails in the test?
c. What is the probability that Donald answers more than 5 and less than 10
questions correctly?
15. In the game of roulette, a wheel is spun and you place bets on where it will stop.
One popular bet is that it will stop on a red slot; such a bet has an 18/38 chance
of winning. If it stops on red, you double the money you bet. If not, you lose the
money you bet. Suppose you play 3 times, each time with a $1 bet. Let Y
represent the total amount won or lost. Write a probability model for Y.
16. We roll two (unbiased) dice and let 𝑋 and 𝑌 be the two numbers that appear.
Find the mode, the median, the expectation, and the standard deviation of
a. max{𝑋, 𝑌};
b. |𝑋 − 𝑌|.
17. Among pregnant cows, 32% of the deliveries happen by means of a Caesarean
section. Assume that the necessity of a Caesarean section is independent
between different pregnant cows. Farmer Willy has 20 pregnant cows. What
are the expected and the most likely number of his pregnant cows that will give
birth by Caesarean section?
18. 10 000 bricks are needed to build a house. The contractor knows that 10% of
the bricks get (independently) damaged during the transport from the factory
to the building site. How many bricks must the contractor order such that he is
at least 99% sure that he has sufficient undamaged bricks to build the house?
19. Suppose a university announced that it admitted 2500 students for the
following year's freshman class. However, the university has dorm room spots
for only 1786 freshman students. If there is a 70% chance that an admitted
student will decide to accept the offer and attend this university, what is the
probability that the university will not have enough dormitory room spots for
the freshman class?
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20. Pew Research reported in 2012 that the typical response rate to their surveys is
only 9%. If for a particular survey 15000 households are contacted, what is the
probability that at least 1500 will agree to respond?
21. A 2005 Gallup Poll found that 7% of teenagers (ages 13 to 17) suffer from
arachnophobia and are extremely afraid of spiders. At a summer camp there are
10 teenagers sleeping in each tent. Assume that these 10 teenagers are
independent of each other.
a. Calculate the probability that at least one of them suffers from arachnophobia.
b. Calculate the probability that exactly 2 of them suffer from arachnophobia.
c. Calculate the probability that at most 1 of them suffers from arachnophobia.
d. If the camp counselor wants to make sure no more than 1 teenager in each
tent is afraid of spiders, does it seem reasonable for him to randomly assign
teenagers to tents?
22. A husband and wife both have brown eyes but carry genes that make it possible
for their children to have brown eyes (probability 0.75), blue eyes (probability
0.125) or green eyes (probability 0.125).
a. What is the probability that their first child will have green eyes and the
second will not?
b. What is the probability that exactly one of their two children will have green
eyes?
c. If they have six children, what is the probability that exactly two will have
green eyes?
d. If they have six children, what is the probability that at least one will have
green eyes?
e. What is the probability that the first green eyed child will be the 4th child?
23. This year, 20% of the sardines are (independently) infected by a bacterium.
70% of the consumers of a contaminated sardine get (independently) stomach
aches the next day.
a. What is the probability that a can of 50 random sardines contains at least 6
contaminated sardines?
b. Five friends each eat a sardine. What is the probability that at least one of
them will suffer from stomach aches the next day?
c. Lisa has eaten a sardine, but does not get stomach aches the next day. What is
the probability that she ate a noncontaminated sardine?
d. An expensive restaurant orders 32 sardines. The supplier checks sardines one
by one until he has found 32 noncontaminated sardines to deliver. What is the
probability that he must check exactly 35 sardines?
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