Chapter (5)

A Survey of Probability Concepts

Examples
Example (1):
A box contain five red balls, a ball is drawn at random, what is the
possibility that the ball will be red?
nR  5 n  5
PR  
n( R) 5
  1 (Certain event)
n() 5
Example (2):
A box contain five red balls, a ball is drawn at random, what is the
possibility that the ball will be blue?
nB  0 n  5
P B  
n( B ) 0
  0 (Impossible event)
n() 5
Example (3):
An experiment is consisting of tossing (flip) a fair coin once, what is the
probability of getting a head?

Ω={ H,T}
n(Ω)= 2 n(H)= 1
nH  1
P H     0.50
n 2
Example (4):
If an experiment is consisting of tossing a fair coin twice, find:
1. The Set of all possible outcomes of the experiment.
2. The probability of the event of getting at least one head.
3. The probability of the event of getting exactly one head in the two
tosses.
4. The probability of the event of getting two heads.

1
Solution:

1.
Ω= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Where,
n (Ω) =22 =4
And since the coin is fair, then all of the elementary events are equally
likely, i.e.
P(HH) = P(HT) = P(TH) = P(TT) = 0.25
2.
Let
E1 = {HH, HT, TH} be the event of getting at least one head, then
n(E1) =3

And hence PE1  

n( E1) 3
  0.75
n() 4
3.
E2 = {HT, TH} be the event of getting exactly one head, then
n (E2) =2 And hence

PE2  
n( E2 ) 2
  0.5
n() 4
4. Let
E3 = {HH} be the event of getting two heads, then n (E3) =1

PE3  
n( E3 ) 1
  0.25
n() 4

2
Example (5):
If the experiment is consisting of rolling a fair die once, find:
1. Set of all possible outcomes of the experiment.
2. The probability of the event of getting an even number.
3. The probability of the event of getting an odd number.
4. The probability of the event of getting a four or five.
5. The probability of the event of getting a number less than 5.
Solution:

1.
Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6 } n(Ω)=6
Since the coin is fair, then all events are equally likely, i.e.
1
P(1)  P(2)    P(6) 
6
2. Let,
E1= {2, 4, 6} be the event of getting an even number, then
n (E1) = 3

PE1  
n( E1 ) 3
  0.50
n() 6

3.
E2= {1, 3, 5} be the event of getting an odd number, then
n (E2) =3

PE2  
n( E2 ) 3
  0.50
n() 6
4. Let,
E3= {4, 5} be the event of getting a four or five, then
n (E3) =2

PE3  
n( E3 ) 2
  0.33
n() 6
5. Let,
E4= {1, 2, 3, 4} be the event of getting a number less than 5, then

PE4  
n( E4 ) 4
  0.67
n() 6
3
 52 playing Cards

26 black cards 26 red cards

13 club 13 spade 13 diamond 13 heart

cards ♣ cards ♠ cards ♦ cards ♥

1 (Ace) 1 (Ace) 1 (Ace) 1 (Ace)

2, 2, 2, 2,
3, 3, 3, 3,
4, 4, 4, 4,
5, 5, 5, 5,
6, 6, 6, 6,
7, 7, 7, 7,
8, 8, 8, 8,
9, 9, 9, 9,
10, 10, 10, 10,
King, King, King, King,
Jack, Jack, Jack, Jack,
Queen Queen Queen Queen

Example (6):
When one card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards,
what are the probabilities of getting?
1. A black card.
PBlack card  
26
 0.5
52
2. Number 2.
PNumber 2 
4
 0.08
52
2
3. A black king   0.038 .
52
4. Number 3, 4, 5.
PNumber 3,4,5 
12
 0.23
52
5. A heart card.
4
P A heard card  
13
 0.25
52
6. A jack or queen or king or ace.
P A  B  C  D   P A  PB   PC   PD 
4 4 4 4 16
    
52 52 52 52 52
7. A card number 7 spade.
P  A 
1
52
Example (7):
Suppose that P (A) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.2 . If events A and B are
mutually exclusive:
- What is the probability of either A or B occurring.
- What is the probability of neither A nor B will happen.
Solution:

P A  B  P( A)  PB  0.4  0.2  0.6

P ~  A  B  1  P( A  B)  1  .6  0.4
Example (8):
The probabilities of the events A and B are 0.20 and 0.25, respectively.
The probability that both A and B occur is 0.10.What is the probability of
either A or B occurring.

Solution:
P A or B   P A  B   P A  PB   P A  B 
 0.20  0.25  0.10  0.45  0.10  0.35
Example (9):
Suppose P (A) =0.3 and P (B) =0.15 .What is the probability of A and B?

Solution:

P A and B  P A  B  P A  PB  0.30  0.15  0.045

Example (10): Suppose P (A) =0.45 & P (B\A) =0.12. What is the
probability of A and B?

Solution:

P A and B  P A  B  P APB \ A  0.45  0.12  0.054

5
Example (11):
Suppose that P (A) =0.7and P (A ∩ B) =0.21, find:
1. The value of P (B\A)
2. If P (B) = 0.3 are events A and B independent?

Solution:

P A  B  0.21
1. PB \ A    0.30
P A 0.7

 PB | A  0.30 andPB   0.3

2.
 A and B independent

Example (12):

The events A and B are mutually exclusive. If P (A) =0.2 P (B) =

0.5Find the probability of:

1. Either A or B 2. Neither A nor B

Solution:

1. P( A  B)  0
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  0.2  0.5  0.7

2.
P(~ ( A  B))  1  P( A  B)  1  0.70  0.30

Example (13):

If A and B two events .Let P( A)  0.2 , P( B)  0.5 , P( A  B)  0.1 . Find:

1. Either A or B 2.Neither A nor B

Solution:

1.
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)  0.2  0.5  0.1  0.6

2.
P(~ ( A  B))  1  P( A  B)  1  0.6  0.5

6
Example (14)

The events A and B are independent .Let P (A) =0.2 P (B) = 0.5

Find:

1. P (A and B)

2. P (~ ( A  B) )

3. Either A or B

4. Neither A nor B

Solution:

1.
P( A  B)  P( A) P( B)  0.20.5  0.1

2. P(~ ( A  B))  1  P( A  B)  1  0.1  0.9

3.
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P A  B   0.2  0.5  0.1
 0.7  0.1  0.6

4.
P(~  A  B )  1  P( A  B)  1  0.6  0.4

Example (15)

The events A and B are dependent. Let P (A) =0.2 P (B\A) =0.4. Find:

1. P (A and B) 2. P (~ ( A  B) )

1.
P( A  B)  P( A) P( B \ A)  0.20.4  0.0.8

2. P(~ ( A  B))  1  P( A  B)  1  0.08  0.92

(Special rule of multiplication)

7
Example (16)
A box contains eight red balls and five white balls, two balls are drawn at
random, find:
1. The probability of getting both the balls white, when the first ball
drawn is replace.
2. The probability of getting both the balls red, when the first ball drawn
is replace
3. The probability of getting one of the balls red, when the first drawn
ball is replaced back.
Solution:
Let W1 be the event that the in the first draw is white and W 2. In a similar
way define R1 and R2. Since the result of the first draw has no effects on
the result of the second draw, it follows that W1 and W2 are independent
and similarly R1 and R2 are independent.
1.
 5  5  25
PW1  W2   P(W1 ) PW2      
 13  13  169
2.
 8  8  64
PR1  R2   P( R1 ) PR2      
 13  13  169

3. Since the first drawn ball is replaced back, then the result of the first
draw has no effect on the result of the second draw. Let E be the event
that one of the ball is red, then:
 8  5   5   8  80
PE   P( R1 ) PW2   P(W1 ) P( R2 )          
 13  13   13   13  169
Example (17):
Two cards are drawn with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability of getting king in the first card and
ace in the second?
Solution:
Since the first drawn card is replaced back, then the result of the first
draw has no effect on the result of the second draw.

PE1and E2   PE1  E2   P( E1 ) PE2    524  524   16

2704

General rule of multiplication

8
Example (18)
A box contains seven blue balls and five red balls, two balls are drawn at
random without replacement, find:
1. The probability that both balls are blue.
2. The probability that both balls are red.
3. The probability that one of the balls is blue.
4. The probability that at least one of the balls is blue.
5. The probability that at most one of the balls is blue.
Solution:
Let B1 denote the event that the ball in the first draw is blue and B 2
denote the event that the ball in the second draw is blue. In a similar way
define R1 and R2.
1.
PB1 and B2   PB1  B2   P( B1 ) PB2 B1 
 127 116   132
42
 0.32
2.
PR1 and R2   PR1  R2   P( R1 ) PR2 R1 
 125 114   132
20
 0.15
3.
Pone ball is blue 
PB1and R2 ) or ( R1 and B2   P( B1 ) PR2 B1   PR1 PB2 R1 
 127 115   125 117 
 132
35
 132
35
 132
70
 0.53

4. That at least one of the balls is blue

P At least one ball is blue  P( B1 and B2 ) or B1and R2 ) or ( R1 and B2 
 P( B1 ) P( B2 B1 )  P( B1 ) P( R2 B1 )  P( R1 ) P( B2 R1 )
 127 116   127 115   125 117 
 132
42
 132
35
 132
35
 112
132  0.85
Another solution:

9
Pat least one blue is ball   1  Pzero blue ball 
 1  PR1and R2 
 1  125 114 
 1  132
20
 1  0.15  0.85

5.
P(at most one ball is blue)
 ( B1and R2 ) or ( R1and B2 ) or ( R1and R2 ) 
 P( B1 ) PR2 B1   PR1 PB2 R1   PR1 PR2 R1 
 127 115   125 117   125 114 
 132
35
 132
35
 132
20
 132
90
 0.68

Another solution:

Pat most one blue ball   1  Ptwo blue balls

 1  PB1and B2 
 1  127 116 
 1  132
42
 1  0.32  0.68
Example (19):
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(2)+P(5) = (1/6)+(1/6) = 2/6 =1/3
Example (20) A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow,
blue, green, and red. What is the probability of
landing on red or blue after spinning this
spinner?

1
P(red) =
4
1
P(blue) =
4
P(red or blue) = P(red) + P(blue)
1 1
= +
4 4

10
 2
=
4
1
=
2

Example (21): A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2

blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single
marble is chosen at random from the
jar, what is the probability that it is
yellow or green?
4
P(yellow) =
10
3
P(green) =
10
P(yellow or green)=P(yellow)+P(green)
4 3
= +
10 10
7
=
10

Example (22): In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13

are girls. On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made
an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from
the class, what is the probability of choosing a girl
or an A student?
P(girl or A)=P(girl)+P(A)-P(girl and A)
13 9 5
= + -
30 30 30
17
=
30

11
Example (23): On New Year's Eve, the
probability of a person having a
car accident is 0.09. The
probability of a person driving
while talking mobile is 0.32 and
probability of a person having a
car accident while Driving while
talking is 0.15. What is the
probability of a person driving
while talking mobile or having a
car accident?
P(intoxicated or = P(talking + P(accide - P(talking mobile and
accident) mobile) nt) accident)
= + -
0.32 0.09 0.15
=
0.26

Example (24)
Suppose we roll one die followed by another and want to find the
probability of rolling a 4 on the first die and rolling an even number on
the second die.
Solution:
Notice in this problem we are not dealing with the sum of both dice. We
are only dealing with the probability of 4 on one die only and then, as a
separate event, the probability of an even number on one die only.

P (4) = 1/6
P (even) = 3/6
So
P(4 even) = (1/6)(3/6) = 3/36 = 1/12

Example (25)

Suppose you have a box with 3 blue marbles, 2 red marbles, and 4 yellow
marbles. You are going to pull out one marble, record its color, put it
back in the box and draw another marble. What is the probability of
pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?
Solution:
The multiplication rule says we need to find P (red) * P (blue).
P(red) = 2/9
P(blue) = 3/9
12
P(red blue) = (2/9)(3/9) = 6/81 = 2/27

Example (26)

Consider the same box of marbles as in the previous example.

However in this case, we are going to pull out the first marble, leave it
out, and then pull out another marble. What is the probability of
pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?
Solution:
We can still use the multiplication rule which says we need to find
P(red) *P(blue). But be aware that in this case when we go to pull out the
second marble, there will only be 8 marbles left in the bag.
P(red) = 2/9
P(blue) = 3/8

P(red blue) = (2/9)(3/8) = 6/72 = 1/12

Example (27): A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is

rolled. Find the probability of landing on the
head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.
Solution: 1
P(head) =
2
1
P(3) =
6
P(head and 3)=P(head)·P(3)
1 1
= ·
2 6
1
=
12

Example (28): A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like pizza. If
three students are chosen at random with replacement, what is
the probability that all three students like pizza?

13
Solution::
9
P(student 1 likes pizza) =
10
9
P(student 2 likes pizza) =
10
9
P(student 3 likes pizza) =
10
P(student 1 and student 2 and student 3 like 9 9 9 729
= · · =
pizza) 10 10 10 1000

Example (29):
A committee consists of four women and three men. The committee will
randomly select two people to attend a conference in Hawaii. Find the
probability that both are women.
Solution:
Let A be the event that first person selected is woman and B be the event
that second person selected is woman.
Then P(A) = P(B) = 4/7 as there are 4 women in the committee of 7
people.
Now we selected a woman as the first person to attend the conference, we
cannot select her as a second person to attend the conference.
So now there are 6 people left to select from and only 3 of them are
women. So to find the probability of selecting both women is

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B | A) = (4/7) * (3/6) = 12/42 = 0.2857

Example (30):
The following table classifies 80 individuals according to whether they
are employed (E) or unemployed (U) and according to their smoking
habits; Smoker (M) and Nonsmoker (N):
E U Total
S 20 15 35
N 10 35 45
Total 30 50 80

Find:1. P M E  
2. P N U 

14
Solution:
1. P( M | E )  PM  E   20  0.67
PE  30
2. PN  U  35
P N \ U     0.70
PU  50
Example (31):
The following table shows the classification of 80 employees from
Company (A) according to nationality and age.
Nationality Saudi (S) Tunisian (T) Egyptian Total
Age (E)
(20–30) (A) 5 3 4 12
(30–40) (B) 15 5 6 26
(40–50) (C) 12 4 9 25
(50–60) (D) 8 2 7 17
Total 40 14 26 80
If an employee selected at random, find:

a.
P A 
12
 0.15
80
b. 
P~E   1  PE   1  80
26
 1  0.33  0.67

c. P A  E   4  0.05
80
d. P~  A  E   1  0.05  0.95
e. PD  S   PD  PS   PD  S   17  40  8 49
  0.61
80 80 80 80
f. PD  A  PD  P A  17  12  29  0.36
80 80 80
g. PS  T   P   0
h. PB / S   PS  B   15 80  / 40 80    15  80   15  0.38
  
PS   80  40  40
i. PC / T   PT  C   4  0.29
PT  14

15
Example (32): (p 157)

Samples of executives were surveyed about their loyalty to their

company. One of the questions was, “If you were given an offer by
another company equal to or slightly better than your present position,
would you remain with the company or take the other position?” The
responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified with
their length of service with the company.

We will use the data in table to show the construction of a tree diagram.
(Numbers on the branches represent probabilities each event)

16
For example

P(A1) = 120/200

P(A2) = 80/200

P( A1 and B1) = (120/200) * ( 10/120) = 0.05

17
Example (33)
In a bolt factory 0.25, 0.35 and 0.40 of the total production is
manufactured by machines 1, 2, 3 out of which 0.05, 0.04 and 0.02 are
defective respectively. If a bolt drowns at random and found to be
defective, what is the probability that it is manufactured by machine 1?

Event, M i Probability , Conditional PM i  Z  PM i \ Z 

P( M i ) Probability ,
P(Z\ M i )
Production of 0.25 0.05 0.0125 0.0125\0.0345=0.36
machine1( M 1 )
Production of 0.35 0.04 0.014 0.014\0.0345=0.41
machine1( M 2 )
Production of 0.40 0.02 0.008 0.008\0.0345=0.23
machine1( M 3 )
Total PZ   0.0345 1

PM 1 PZ M 1  0.250.05 0.0125

PM 1 Z      0.36
PZ  0.0345 0.0345

18
 Example (34)
In a group of students, 0.22 of them from France, 0.33 from UK and 0.45
from Canada. If the proportion of boys is as follows: 0.11 for the France
students, 0.21 for the UK students and 0.10 for the Canadian students. If a
student is selected at random and he was a boy, what's the probability that
he is from France?

Event " E i " Probability Conditional P E i  B  P E i \ B 

P( E i ) Probability
P(B\ E i )
Students from 0.22 0.11 0.0242 0.0242\0.1385=0.17
France ( F )
Students from 0.33 0.21 0.0693 0.0693\0.1385=0.50
UK ( U )
Students from 0.45 0.10 0.045 0.045\0.1385=0.33
Canada ( C )
Total PB  0.1385 1

The probability that the selected student is from France given that he is a
boy:
PF PB / F  0.22 0.11 0.0242
PF / B      0.1747
PB  0.1385 0.1385

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Example (35)
An aircraft emergency locator transmitter (ELT) is a device designed to
transmit a signal in the case of a crash.
The Altigauge Manufacturing Company makes 80% of the ELTs.
The Bryant Company makes 15% of them.
The Chartair Company makes the other 5%.
The ELTs made by Altigauge have a 4% rate of defects, the Bryant ELTs
have a 6% rate of defects, and the Chartair ELTs have a 9% rate of
defects
If a randomly selected ELT is then tested and is found to be defective,
find the probability that it was made by the Altigauge Manufacturing
Company.
Solution
We use the following notation:
𝐴1 : ELT manufactured by Altigauge
𝐴2 : ELT manufactured by Bryant
𝐴3 : ELT manufactured by Chartair
𝐷𝑖 : ELT is defective
𝐺𝑖 : ELT is not defective (or it is good)

Event 𝑨𝒊 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ) Conditional Joint Posterior

Probability Probability Probability
𝑷(𝑫𝒊 / 𝑨𝒊 ) 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 𝒂𝒏𝒅𝑫𝒊 ) 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 /𝑫𝒊 )
𝑨𝟏 0.8 0.04 0.032 0.703
𝑨𝟐 0.15 0.06 0.009 0.197
𝑨𝟑 0.05 0.09 0.0045 0.099
0.0455

𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ⁄𝑫𝟏 )
𝑷(𝑨𝟏 )𝑷(𝑫𝟏 / 𝑨𝟏 )
=
𝑷(𝑨𝟏 )𝑷(𝑫𝟏 ∕ 𝑨𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑨𝟐 )𝑷(𝑫𝟐 ∕ 𝑨𝟐 ) + 𝑷(𝑨𝟑 )𝑷(𝑫𝟑 ∕ 𝑨𝟑 )

𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟐 0.032
𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ⁄𝑫𝟏 ) = = = 0.703
𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟗 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟓 0.0455

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