Chapter S Probability Solution When rolling two dice, the sample space is as follows: ay (1,3) . (3) 0,6) ae @3) 5) 26) 1) ae) G5) 6.6) ae 3) 3) Go) 1) ) (5,5) 6,6) (6,3) (6, 5) (6,6) Therefore, n(S) = 36. Let A be the event of getting a three on the first die. GBD G2 6,3) G4) G5) G6) > P(A) 36 B be the event of getting a sum of five, six, or seven on the two dice. (1,4) (3) (1,6) (2,3) @,4) 2,5) G2) G3) G4) @1) 2) (4,3) (5,1) (5,2) (6 1) ACB is the event of getting a three on the first die and getting a sum of five, six, or seven. G2 G3) G4) > PlAnB Thus, the probability is P(a| 4) = 240.8) > g Blo|aie wie Product Rule If A and B are two events in a sample space § with P(4) > 0 and P(B) > 0, then P(A B)= P(B)P(4|B) or P(A) = P(A)P(B| A) Example 2 Two cards are selected at random from a standard deck. What is the probability that the first is an 8 and the second is a queen if: a) the first card is not replaced before the second is selected? b) the first card is replaced before the second is selected? Solution _ Let E- be the event of getting an 8 on the first draw Q- be the event of getting a queen on the second draw MSA Acapemic ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 3A 8 fi and on the first) = (8) He eee! ‘P( Queen on the second ai Mone)= P(E) P(o| £) 4 52 cards is P(E)= 55 ck 0 The probability of getting an 8 from a full de for the second selection 2 sample space i a) If the fst ex is is amiga was an 8 there are still 4 queens jes only 51 cards. Sin It follows that 4 P(o|8)= 5 ‘Thus, P(QnE)= P(E) -P(O|E bb) In this case, the first card is replaced. The deck still has 52 cards before ih second selection. 4 / PO|)=5 Thus, 4 4 1 PQ E)=P(E)-PCIE)= 35° Ai Product Rule for Independent Events If 4 and B are independent events, then P(4-.B) = P(4)- P(B)- Example 3 A roulette wheel contains 38 numbers of which 18 are red, 18 are black and 2 a green, When the roulette ball is spun, it is equally likely to land on any of the 38 numbers. In two plays at the wheel, what is the probability that 1) the ball lands on black both times? b)_ the ball lands on green the first time and on red on the second time? Solution It is reasonable to assume that outcomes on successive plays at the whet are independent. 8) Let A- be the event thatthe ball lands on black the first time B - be the event that the ball lands ‘on black the second time nla na)= tas Z p(ay- (2) _ 18 _ 9 5 n(S) 3819 of PISA. ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTEChapter Probability Thus, b) Let G- be the event that the ball lands on green the first time R- be the event that the ball lands on red the second time 9 Is P(n)= 2-5 P(G Thus, We shall now consider a finite sequence of experiments in which the outcomes of each experiment depend on the outcomes of the preceding experiments. This can be effectively described using tree diagrams. Consider the following example. Example 4A box contains 3 defective and 4 nondefective transistors. One randomly. selects a transistor (without replacement) until a nondefective one is obtained. What is the probability that the number of transistors selected is three? Solution To have 3 selections before a nondefective transistor, the first two selections must be defective. ‘Therefore, the probability that the number of transistors selected is three is areata geung a6 Exercises 5.3 Answer the following problems. 1, A red die and a green die are rolled. It is known that the red die shows a six. Find the probability that the sum that shows is at least I] MSA ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 8y ASA Saatistics and Probability ied coin came up tails, 2. Thee coins are tossed in succession. It is known that the third coin came up tls. Fin probability that all three coins are tails. 3. Find the probability of getting a sum of nine on two dice ifthe first die already shows a ,, ‘Suppose a card is selected at random from an ordinary deck of 52 pla Let 4 = event a face card is selected vent a king is selected ‘event a heart is selected Determine the following probabilities. a) P(a|c) by P(B| 4) ©) P(c|a) 5. Suppose a dic is rolled twice and comes up “4” on the first roll. What isthe probability that, second roll also shows a “4”? ‘ 6. ‘Two dice are rolled in succession and it is known that the sum is five, six, or seven. Find probability that the first die shows a three. : 7. Find the probability of drawing two spades in succession from a 52-card deck ifthe first can, not replaced. 8. Six balls numbered 1, 2,3, 4, 5, and 6 are ina bag. Find the probabilityof drawing | and2 inky order. Assume that the first ball is not replaced before drawing the second. 9. Three companies 4, B, and C are competing for a contract, The probabilities that they recsne 1 1 the contract are P(4 1 @: PB)= 3, and P(C) What is the probability that A wil 3 receive the contract if C pulls out of the bidding? 10, Two bins contain transistors. The first has 4 defective and 15 nondefective, while the secon has 3 defective and 22 nondefective ones. If the probability of picking either bin is the sane, what is the probability of picking a defective transistor from the second bin? IL. Three cards are randomly drawn without replacement from a standard deck, a) What is the probability of drawing an ace on the third draw? b) What is the probability of drawing an ace on the third draw given that at least one at was drawn on the first 2 draws? 12. Urn 1 contains five red balls and three black balls. Urn 2 contains three red balls and one bt ball. Urn 3 contains four red balls and two black balls. If an urn is selected at random and ball is drawn, what is the probability that it will be red? 13, Find the probability of drawing two aces from a deck of cards if the first card is replat! before the second is drawn? es ASA Acapemic ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTEChapter § Probab 14, Abox contains 2 defective parts and 5 nondefective ones. You randomly select a part (without replacement) until you get a nondefective part. What is the probability that the number of parts selected is a) one? b) two? c) three? 15, A bag has seven red and three green balls. Two balls are drawn in sequence without replacement. Find the probability that a) the second ball is green. b) the second ball is green given that the first one is red. ©) the second ball is green given that the first oni green. 5.4 Bayes’ Theorem In this section, we use conditional probability to determine the probability that an earlier event B occurred, given that a later one A has happened. ‘The experiments in this section contains of two stages. Tree diagrams will be useful. Suppose the experiment is to choose a marble from either an urn or a box at random. The urn contains | red and 2 white marbles and the box contains 3 red and 2 white marbles. Furthermore, ‘we want to find the probability that the marble came from the urn given that it is a red marble. The tree diagram shows that the experiment consists of two stages, the first stage is to choose either the urn or the box and the second stage is to select the marble. Let U- represents selecting the urn R-- represents selecting a red marble B - represents selecting the box W- represents selecting a white marble ‘Then we can assign the following probabilities. Pu)=3 P(R|u)= P(w|u) R|B)= P(w|B)= l P(B)=— P (8)-5 ( ‘The problem is to find P(U|R). 1 fais Te MMR Fp 1 z Uy mY KW IU)= bed 1 % MSA. ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 97MSA Sauatstics nd Probabilty Notice that R can occur in two ways, from U or B. This can be expressed as R=(UNR)U(BNR) Because these two are mutually exclusive, P(R)=P(U OR) + P(BOR) i) From the defini of conditional probability, n(uja)= fe) Substituting equation (1) into equation (2), we have (2) P(UNR) P(UAR)+P(BAR) P(ujR) (3) ‘These probabilities can be computed from the tree diagram by using the Product Rule. Thus, P(UAR)= P(U)P(R|U) P(BR)= P(a)P(R|B)= Substituting these values into equation (3) yields AGE eel) ss P(u|R)=——"°_ = (via) 1/64+3/10 28/60 14 Therefore, the probability that a marble came from the urn given that i is redis >. Bayes’ Theorem Suppose U,, U,, ...U, are mutually exclusive events whose w space. Let £ be an event with nonzero probability. Then is the entire sample P(U; ME) P(u;\e)= P(E) a P(U; NE) © P(U, OE)+P(U2 NE)+.+ PU, OB) s P(u; )P(elu, ) 98 ASA ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTChapter S Probability The next example demonstrates the use o . a jes at the first stage, © use of Bayes’ Theorem in an experiment with thre: possibi common exam to their classes of 40 students each. is in class A, 30 of the students in class B, and 30 of the Xam. If'a student who has passed the exam is chosen at ity that the student is in class A? Example 1 Three professors administer Suppose that 32 of the studem students in class C Pass the e: random, what is the Probabili Sere cretnents Gee condtrOst a! tee dlagrta.” At he fel eae iA Bad C represent cass A+ lass B, and'class C, respectively. At the second stage, let P and F rrebabilne sed & failed, respectively. Label each branch with its covrespondin; probability. ly. Label each branch wit ponding 0s p MA) PLAy= & 1 ork PO MFIAD= & 075 1 PPB) P| B= + Bm ; oak MB) AFL B)= PAC) A PIC)= ac i Dek MOM FIC)= The probability that the student who passed is in class A is represented by P(4 | P). Using Bayes’ Theorem, P(ANP) . P(P) P(4|P) P(4)P(P| a) P(4)P(P|4)+ P(B)P(P|B)+ P(C)P( PIC) (4/15) U5, 2 18h ~ (4715) +(1/4)+ (1/4) 23730 ~ 23 Exercises 5.4 1. Given PU,) = 0.6, P(U,) = 0.4, P(E|U, )= 03, P(E|Uy )= 02, find a) P(U, [£) b) P(U2 |z) FVSA, AcaDEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 99ESA siti 2 - A shelf holds two boxes of ornaments. The blue box contains 7 and Probability Given P(U,) = 0.2, P(U,) = 0.5, P(U,) = 0.3, P(E|U, )=0.1, P(E|U,) P(E|U3 ) = 005, find a) P(u, |e) b) P(U2|£) *) P(U; |e) The experiment is to choose at random either an urn or a box, each containing some yellow green marbles, and then to select a marble, The umn has 4 yellow and 6 green mari The box has 7 yellow and 5 green marbles. Find the probability of each event. i a) The urn was chosen given that the marble is yellow. b) The box was chosen given that the marble is green. In order to measure the degree of visibility of an ad campaign, consumers if they ean remember seeing certain ads. An advert viewers and asked if they recalled seeing a particular advertiseme they had brought the product recently. Of the 110 people who definitely remembered 9 commercial, 60 had bought the product recently. Of the 330 who vaguely remembered commercial, 66 had bought the product recently. Of the 560 who didnot remember secing commercial, 40 had bought the produet recently. Find the probability that a person defeat remembered seeing the ad given that a person bought the product recently. y interviewers often ay, i firm questioned 1009 yy nt. They were then asked p ° good ornaments and 3 defective ornaments; the white box contains 4 good ornaments and 1 defective ornament. A box selected and one ornament is chosen from it. If the ornament is good, what is the probabiliy that the blue box was chosen? y City crime records show that 20% of all erimes are violent and 80% are nonviolent, invoving theft, and so on. Ninety percent of violent crimes are reported versus 70% of nonviolent crimes Ifa crime in progress is reported to the police, what is the probability that the crime is violen? A company produces bolts at three factories A, B, and C. Factory A produces 40% of the number of bolts, of which 0.1% are defective. Factory B produces 35%, of which 0.15% as defective, and C produces 25%, of which 0.05% are defective. If a defective bolt is found among the total output, what is the probability that it came from a) factory A? b) factory B? ©) factory C2 ‘An insurance company classifies policyholders as either good (G), bad (B), or questionable (Q). Suppose the probability of having an accident during a given time periodis 0.02 for G drivers, 0.09 for B drivers, and 0.04 for Q drivers. If 57% of current policyholdes are G drivers, 23% are B, and 20% are Q, and an accident is reported, what is the probability that the person who just had the accident is a good driver? Ina certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women have their own cars. Furthermore 60% of the students are women. If-a student is selected at random and has his/her own < what is the probability that the student is a woman? Females in a certain upiversity constitute 60% of the freshman, 40% of the sophomore, 55% of the juniors, and 0% of the seniors. The school population is 30% freshmen, 25% sophommers 25% juniors, and 20% seniors. Ifa student chosen at random is a female, what is the probabil that the student is a sophomore? 100 GSA. AcapEMic ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE aChapter Exercises ‘Answer the following. 1, Abox contains 10 identical balls, 1 is white, 4 are black and, 5 are red. A balll is selected at random and the color is observed. What is the sample space of this experiment? 2. A quality control staff selects 10 tratisistors from the production line and notes how many are defective. 1) Determine the sample space. b) Find the outcomes in the set corresponding to the event “at least 6 are defective”. ¢) Find the outcomes in the set corresponding to the event “at most 4 are defective”. 3. A fairdie is tossed and a fair coin is flipped. What is the probability of obtaining a tail and a“4”? 4. A fair coin is flipped twice and a fair di 2 tails and a “4”? is rolled. What is the probability of obtaining 5. A pair of dice are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining a sum of a) 4? b) 8? c) at least 97 4) at most 6? 6. A box contains 6 white balls, 8 red balls and 4 blue balls. Three balls are selected at random without replacement. Find the probability of each event. a) all balls are of the same color b) one ball for each color 7. A number from 1 to 60 is chosen at random. What is the probability that it is prime? 8. If5 persons are to be seated in a round table, what is the probability that a certain boy and girl ) will be seated together? b) will not be together? 9. Three Physics books, six Math books and 2 English books are to be placed on a shelf. What is the probability that the Math books are together? 10, Each of the first 8 letters of the alphabet and cach of the first 10 positive integers is written on separate sheets of paper. These are placed in a box and mixed thoroughly. If one sheet is drawn at random, what is the probability of obtaining a vowel or an even number? 11. Three cards are dealt from a well-shuffled deck. Find the probability of obtaining a) non-face cards. b) 2 face cards or 1 black card. 12. A four-digit number is formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Assume that the digits cannot be repeated, what is the probability that the number is a) even? b) greater that 3000? ¢)_even or greater than 3000? 1B. Find the probability of getting a sum of 6 on two dice if the first die already shows @ 3 MSA ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 101DASA Statistics and Probability 14, A family has five children. What is the probability that a) the first three children are boys and the last two are girls? b) at least one child is a girl? 15. A survey of people in a given city showed that 20% were smokers. The probability of de, due to lung cancer, given that a person smoked, was roughly ten times the probab ity of ey due to lung cancer, given that a person did not smoke. If the probability of death due to, cancer in the city is 0.006, what is the probability of death due to lung cancer given ti, person is a smoker? 16, A card is drawn at random from a standard deck. Let 4 be the event that the drawn card ise le by 3 (face cards are not valued). and B be the event that the drawn card is divisi a) Find P(4|B) b) Test A and B for independence. 17. Let A be the event that all of a family’s children are the same sex, and let J be the event thy the family has at most 1 boy. Assuming the probability of having a girl is the same as probability of having a boy, test events 4 and B for independence if b) the family has 3 children. 1) the family has 2 children. 18. A fair coin is tossed four times in succession. Use a tree diagram to find 1g four heads, 1a) the probability of tos: 1g three heads and one tail. b) the probability of tos: 19. A box contains ten light bulbs, two of which are defective. Suppose three bulbs are selectedis suecession without replacing those already selected. 1a) What is the probability that all three bulbs selected will be good? +b) What is the probability that the third bulb selected will be good? ©) What is the probability that two are good and one is defective? 4) What is the probability that at least two are good? One of the two bins is selected at random, one as likely to be selected as the other, and from bin selected a transistor is chosen at random. The transistor is tested and found to ¥ defective. It is known that the first bin contains 2 defective and 4 nondefective transite while the second bin contains 5 defective and I defective transistors. Find the probability 20. the second bin was selected. apa) TSA. AcADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUT‘Chapter $ Probability Name: Score: BPction:) 8 an. he Mute See a lee a. es Chapter 5 Test Tell whether each statement is érue or false. 1. Inan empirical probability, all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely. 2. If two outcomes are dependent, they must have the same probability of occurring, 3. An event and its complement can occur at the same time. ‘Answer each of the following. 4. When a card is drawn, what is the probability of getting a) a spade? b) an 8? ©) acard less than 5 (an ace is considered above 5)? 5. When a card is drawn from a deck, find the probability of getting a) a diamond. b) an ace or a heart. ©) @ red card or a king. 6. When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting a) a sum of 6 or 7. b) a sum less than 3 or greater than 8. ) asum that is divisible by 3 LSA, ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE 103PAESA Statistics and Probability fi r ‘on owns a compa, ‘The probability that a person owns a microwave is 0.75, that a perses ONL @ Sump “ cn player is 0.25, and that a person owns both a microwave aad a CD player 0.16. Fin, probability that a person owns either a microwave or a CD player, 5 8. A single die is rolled four times. Find the probability of getting at least one 5. 9. The probability that an adult has lung cancer is 0.01. The probability that an adult is @ smog and has lung cancer is 0,007. Find the probability that a randomly selected adult is a smoly, given that this person has lung cancer. | | | 10. A mouse is inside a room, each of whose four walls has a door through which the mouse cout | + attempt to escape. Unluckily for the mouse, there is a trap at each of the doors d,, d,, dani dy and they work with probabilities 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. If the mouse picks | door at random, 1a) what is the probability that the mouse will escape? b) given that the mouse escapes, what is the probability that the mouse chose door 3 to escape! 106 PMSA, ACADEMIC ADVANCEMENT INSTITUTE