Probability Theory
and
Probability Distribution
Reporter 1: Alyssa Villorente
Reporter 2: Mary Grace Verano
Probability
The level of possibility that something will happen or
is true.
It is the ability to understand and estimate the
likelihood of any different combination of outcomes.
Weather Forecasting
Lottery Tickets
Politics
Probability Theory
It is a branch of mathematics concerned with the
analysis of random phenomena.
It is a branch of mathematics that evolved from the
investigation of social, behavioral, and physical
phenomena that are influenced by randomness and
uncertainty.
Probability Distribution
A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and
the probability associated with each outcome.
Characteristics of a Probability
Distribution
1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1
inclusive.
2. The outcome are mutually exclusive events.
3. The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the
various events is equal to 1.
Example
• When we tosses three coins and we are interested in
the number of heads, what should be the possible
outcome?
zero heads
one head
two heads
three heads
Illustration
Possible Coin Toss Number of
Result First Second Third Heads
1 T T T 0
2 T T H 1
3 T H T 1
4 T H H 2
5 H T T 1
6 H T H 2
7 H H T 2
8 H H H 3
Let’s Check
Number of Heads, (x) Probability of Outcome , P (x)
0 1/8 = .125
1 3/8 = .375
2 3/8 = .375
3 1/8 = .125
Total 8/8 = 1.000
Probability Distribution for the events of zero, one, two and three heads
Probability of the events is equal to 1
Random Variables
• a quantity resulting from an experiment that, by
chance, can assume different values.
Example: In this experiment, we
are interested in the event that
one head occurs in three
tosses.
Illustration
Possible Coin Toss Number of
Result First Second Third Heads
1 T T T 0
2 T T H 1
3 T H T 1
4 T H H 2
5 H T T 1
6 H T H 2
7 H H T 2
8 H H H 3
The result is P (1 head in 3 tosses) = 0.375 (i.e. 3/8)
Types of Probability Distribution
• Binomial Probability Distribution
• Poisson Probability Distribution
• Continuous Probability Distribution
• Uniform Probability Distribution
• Normal Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability
is a widely occurring discrete probability distribution
where there are only two possible outcomes on a
particular experiment (e.g. true or false, acceptable or
not acceptable);
the random variable is the result of the counts, i.e. we
count the of success in the trials.
the probability of a success remains the same from one
trial to another
each trial is independent of any other trial
Example
A young family has two children, both boys. The
probability of a third birth being a boy is
50%
i.e. the gender of the third child is independent of the
other two.
Poisson Probability Distribution
the random variable is the number of times some
event occurs during a defined interval
the probability of the event is proportional to the
size of the interval
the intervals did not overlap and are independent
Example
the number of scratches and imperfections in newly
painted car panels;
the number of defective parts in outgoing shipments;
the number of customers waiting to be served at a
restaurant
in other words… it is used to describe the
distribution errors in data entry
Uniform Probability Distribution
it is defined by a minimum and a maximum values
Example: an airline company has flight from Manila to
CDO, ranges from 60 minutes to 120 minutes
Normal Probability Distribution
it is bell-shaped and has a single
peak at the center of the
distribution
it is symmetrical about the
mean
it falls off smoothly in either
direction from the central value.
the location is determined by
the mean
Calculating Probability Using SPSS
Given (Binomial Distribution)
X ~ B (n=6, P=0.2)
Find:
1. Probability when x= 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
Step 1: Go to Variable View and write X in Row 1; Decimals should be 0
Step 2: Go to Data View and type the numbers 0 – 6
Step 3: Go to Transform > Compute Variable
Step 4: Create a name in the
Target Variable
Step 5: Select PDF &
Noncentral PDF >
Pdf.Binom
Step 6: Under Numeric
Expression, fill in the given
data
Step 7: Click OK
Calculating Probability Using SPSS
Given (Binomial Distribution)
X ~ B (n=6, P=0.2)
Find:
1. Cumulative Distribution when x= 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
Calculating Probability Using SPSS
Given (Poisson Distribution)
X ~ P(n=2)
Find:
1. Probability when x = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
2. Using Cumulative Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
On the same Dataset, delete
the answers on Columns 2 &
3
Step. 1: X = 1, 2, 3 ,4 5, 6
Answer
Answer
Calculating Probability Using SPSS
Given (Normal Distribution)
X ~ N (µ=6,o = 1.2 )
Find:
1. Cumulative Distribution for x = 3,3.5,4,4.5 to 7.5
2. X when P =0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8
Normal Probability Distribution
On the same Dataset, delete
columns 2 & 3
Step. 1 X = 3, 3.5,4, 4.5,
5,5.5,6,6.5,7,7.5
Answer
Step. 1: Go to Variable View, type in Row 3 “Probability” then Decimals by 2
Step 2: Type the given data
Answer
Thank you
Checkpoint
1. ________ is a branch of mathematics concerned
with the analysis of random phenomena
Answers
1. Probability Theory
Checkpoint
2. Give at least 2 characteristics of Probability
Distribution
Answers
2. a. The probability of a particular outcome is
between 0 and 1 inclusive.
b. The outcome are mutually exclusive events.
c. The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the
various events is equal to 1.
Checkpoint
3. ________ is a widely occurring discrete probability
distribution where there are only two possible
outcomes on a particular experiment (e.g. true or false,
acceptable or not acceptable);
Answers
3. Binomial Probability
Checkpoint
4. ________ the probability of the event is
proportional to the size of the interval
Answers
4. Poisson Probability
Checkpoint
5. Compute the probability of the given data using
binomial distribution:
x= 1,2,3,4,5
n= 5
p=.7
Using SPSS
Answers
