PLAN 193: STATISTICS I

Lecture Three: Distribution of

Discrete Random Variable

Md Waliullah

Lecturer, URP, BUET

Office: Room-004, Architecture Building, BUET
E-mail: waliullah@urp.buet.ac.bd
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Today's Lesson

✓ Probability Distribution

✓ Binomial Distribution

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Key Concepts

✓ Random Variable
o Is a variable that contains the outcomes of a chance experiment

✓ Discrete Random Variable

o Set of all possible values is at most a finite or a countably infinite number of
possible values
o In example, counting the number of people who arrive at a store during a five
minutes period

✓ Continuous Random Variable

o Takes on values at every point over a given interval.
o In example, measuring the time required to complete a task

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Key Concepts

✓ The outcomes for random variables and their associated probabilities can be
organized into distributions.

o Discrete distribution (i.e. Binomial distribution; Poisson distribution)

o Continuous distribution (i.e. Normal distribution)

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Key Concepts

✓ A discrete probability can take on only a limited no. of values, which can be listed.
o Example:
o Coin toss experiment.
o The probability that a baby born in a given month (there are only 12
possible values)
✓ In continuous probability distribution, the variable under consideration is allowed
to take on any value within a given range, so we can not list all the possible
values.
o Example: Examining level of effluent in a variety of streams.

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Frequency Distribution and Probability Distribution

✓ A frequency distribution is a listing of the observed frequencies of all the

outcomes of an experiment that actually occurred when the experiment was
done.

✓ A probability distribution is a listing of the probabilities of all the possible

outcomes that could result if the experiment were done.

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Frequency Distribution and Probability Distribution
✓ Probability of entering cars in a certain point is shown in the following table:

x P (x) x. P(x) (𝑥 − µ) 2 (𝑥 − µ) 2. P(x)

0 .37 0 (0-1.15) 2 (1.32) . 37
1 .31 .31 (1-1.15) 2 (0.02) .31
2 .18 .36 (2-1.15) 2 Calculate
3 .09 .27 (3-1.15) 2 Calculate
4 .04 .16 (4-1.15) 2 Calculate
5 .01 .05 (5-1.15)2 Calculate

✓ Mean or expected value, µ = ∑[x. P(x)] 1.15

✓ Variance 𝞼2 =∑[(𝑥 − µ)2 . P(x)] 1.41
✓ Standard deviation, 𝞼 = ∑[(𝑥 − µ)2 . P(x)] 1.19
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CLASS BREAK!!

5 minutes
Binomial Distribution

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Binomial Distribution
✓ The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes the likelihood
that a value will take one of two independent values under a given set of parameters
or assumptions.
✓ The trials are independent- the outcome of one trial will not affect the outcome of the
other trials.
✓ For each trial, there are two mutually exclusive outcomes, a binary random variable.
o Example: head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective light bulb
o Generally called “success” and “failure”
o Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 – p
✓ Constant probability for each observation
o Example: Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss the coin
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Binomial Formula
✓ For a new-born baby, there is a 49% chance that it is girl. What are the chances
that 2 out of 3 new-borns are girls?

✓ We can compute this by listing all the possibilities (total enumeration):

P(2 out of 3 are girls) = P(GGB) + P(GBG) + P(BGG) Addition Rule

=P(G)*P(G)*P(B)+ P(G)*P(B) *P(G)+P(B)*P(G)*P(G) Multiplication Rule

= 0.49*0.49*0.51+ 0.49*0.51*0.49+ 0.51*0.49*0.49

= (0.49)2 * (.51)1 + (0.49)2 * (.51)1 + (0.49)2 * (.51)1

= 3 * (0.49)2 * (.51)1

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Binomial Formula

𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
P (x) =nCx . 𝑝 . 𝑞

Where, n = the number of trials (or the number of being sampled)

x = the number of success desired
p = the probability of getting a success in one trial
q = 1-p = the probability of getting failure in one trial

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Binomial Distribution: Example 1
✓ Take the example of 5 coin tosses. What’s the probability that you flip
exactly 3 heads in 5 coin tosses?
Outcome Probability
THHHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
HHHTT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
TTHHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
HTTHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 The probability of
ways to
 
5
arrange 3
HHTTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 each unique outcome
  heads in
HTHHT
THTHH
(1/2)3 x (1/2)2
(1/2)3 x (1/2)2
(note: they are all
 3 5 trials HTHTH
HHTHT
(1/2)3 x (1/2)2
(1/2)3 x (1/2)2
equal)

THHTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2

10 arrangements x (1/2)3 x (1/2)2

5C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10 5

P(3 heads and 2 tails) =   * P(heads)3 * P(tails)2
 3
= 10 * (½) = 31.25%
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Binomial Distribution: Example 2
✓ Imagine there is a polls on Jan. 30, you ask a representative random sample of 6 voters
if they voted for “A”. If the true percentage of voters who vote for “A” is 55.1%, what
is the probability that, in your sample, exactly 2 voted for “A” and 4 did not?
Outcome
IINNNN
ININNN
 
6
  INNINN 15 arrangements
 2 INNNIN
ways to ……..
arrange 2
NNNNII
“A” votes
among 6
voters
P(2 yes votes exactly)

6 (
=    .551)  (.449) = 18.5%
2 4

2
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Binomial Distribution: Example 3

✓ If I toss a coin 20 times, what’s the probability of getting 2 or fewer heads

 20  20!
  (.5) 0
(. 5) 20
= (.5) 20 = 9.5 x10−7 +
0 20!0!
 20  20!
  (.5)1
(.5 )19
= (.5) 20 = 20 x9.5 x10−7 = 1.9 x10−5 +
1 19!1!
 20  20!
 (.5) (.5) =
2 18
(.5) 20 = 190x9.5 x10−7 = 1.8 x10−4
2 18!2!
= 1.8 x10−4

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Binomial Distribution: Example Using Binomial Table

✓ According to information resources, which publishes data on market share for

various products, Oreo control about 10% of the market for cookie brands.
Suppose 20 purchasers of cookies are selected randomly from the population.
What is the probability that fewer than 11 purchasers choose Oreos?

✓ n = 20, p=0.10 and x <11

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Mean and Standard Deviation of A Binomial Distribution

✓ 40% of all graduate students at a university are women. If 15 sample students are
selected randomly many times, what is the expected value or long-run average or
mean of them being women? What is the standard deviation?
o n = 15, p=0.40
o Mean  = np Mean = 15* 0.40 = 6
o Standard dev. =  = np(1 − p) Standard dev. = 15 ∗ 0.40 ∗ 0.60
= 1.897

Interpretation:
If 40% of all graduate students at a university are women and if random samples of
15 students are selected many times, the expectation is that, on average, 6 of 15
students would be women
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Today's Lesson

✓ Poisson Distribution

✓ Lecture 04

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Poisson Distribution

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Poisson Distribution

✓ Instead of the probability of an event, Poisson distribution requires knowing

how often it occurs for a specific period of time or distance.
✓ The Poisson distribution focuses only on the frequency with which an event
occurs in a specific interval.

Example:
o A binomial experiment might be used to determine how many U.S.-made
cars are in a random sample of 20 cars.
o A Poisson experiment might focus on the number of cars randomly arriving
at an automobile repair facility during a 10-minute interval.

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Poisson Distribution

✓ A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution.

✓ It gives the probability of an event happening a certain number of times (k) within a
given interval of time or space.
✓ The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, λ (lambda), which is the mean
number of events.

Poisson Distribution can be used if:

o Individual events happen at random and independently. That is, the probability
of one event doesn’t affect the probability of another event.
o You know the mean number of events occurring within a given interval of time or
space. This number is called λ (lambda) and is assumed to be constant.
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Poisson Distribution

✓ In general, Poisson distributions are often appropriate for count data.

✓ Count data is composed of observations that are non-negative integers (i.e., numbers
that are used for counting, such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and so on).

Consider the following examples:

o The no. of cars arriving at a CNG station.
o The number of accidents at any intersection.
o The number of fire incidents at any area.
o The frequency of thunderstorms at any area.

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Poisson Distribution: Formula

λk e−λ
𝑃(X = k) =
k!
Where:
o X is a random variable following a Poisson distribution
o k is the number of times an event occurs
o P(X = k) is the probability that an event will occur k times
o e is Euler’s constant (approximately 2.718)
o λ is the average number of times an event occurs
o ! is the factorial function

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Poisson Distribution: Formula

✓ Mean:  =
✓ For the Poisson random variable the mean and variance are the same.

✓ Standard deviation: = 

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Poisson Distribution: Example 1

Suppose, Dengue Virus in Bangladesh are occurring at a rate of about 2 per month,
then what’s the probability that exactly 4 cases will occur in the next months?

(2)4 𝑒 −(2)
P(X = 4 in next months) = = 9.02%
4!

✓ Exactly 4 cases in the next 3 months?

(2 ∗ 3)4 𝑒 −(2∗3) 64 𝑒 −(6)

P(X = 4 in 3 months) = = = 13.4%
4! 4!

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Poisson Distribution: Example 2

1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process with a constant rate =2 calls per
hour, what’s the probability that, if you forget to turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour class,
your phone rings during that time?

P(X≥1)=1 – P(X=0)

(2 * 1.5) 0 e −2(1.5) (3) 0 e −3

P( X = 0) = = e −3 = .05
0! 0!
P(X≥1)=1 – .05 = 95% chance

1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the class?

E(X) = t = 2(1.5) = 3

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Poisson Distribution: Practice
Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2
customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having more than 7 customers
in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?

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Poisson Distribution: Example 3
✓If hailstorm occur randomly with a mean of 1.23 per year,
o The likelihood of no storm during a given year is 0.2923 (29%). That is, in about 29 years out of
100, no hailstorm will occur.

o The highest probability occurs at a frequency of 1 hailstorm per year (0.3605) or about 36 years
out of 100.
0.40
0.3605
0.35
Poisson probability

0.2923
0.30
0.25 0.221 λk e−λ
0.20
𝑃(X = k) =
k!
0.15
0.0909
0.10
0.05 0.0279
0.0067
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5+
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Number of hailstorms per year
Poisson Distribution

✓ We want to know the probability of experiencing any event-

o That are uncertain in nature,
o Varies greatly from year to year,
o Varies greatly from region to region.

✓ Then we can take informed decisions and protect our resources.

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Poisson Distribution

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Comparison with Binomial distribution

✓ A special property of the Poisson distribution is that the variance equals the mean.

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Acknowledgment

Ms. Sadia Afroj

Assistant Professor
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, BUET

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Thank You!!!