Flood Risk Assessment in Barangay Malanday, Marikina City, Philippines by

Flood Simulation

Rio Jane V. Abonal1*, Rochelle Anne M. Posadas2, Glenn Arvin M. Magcalas3,

John Manuel B. Vergel4, Florante D. Poso, Jr.5
1235
FEU Institute of Technology, Manila, Philippines
4
Vergel3Consult, Inc., Quezon City, Philippines
*
Email: abonalriojane@gmail.com

Abstract: Marikina City has faced flooding problems, especially those barangays in low-lying
areas and near the Marikina River when the water level rises. Barangay Malanday is one of those
barangays that is experiencing flooding due to the effects of typhoons and monsoon rains. This
paper focused on the flood risk assessment of Barangay Malanday, Marikina City that can be
utilized for flood mitigation measures. The investigation highlighted the hazard and vulnerability of
the area. Flooding was simulated using HECRAS, with the initial input parameters such as depths
and flood hazard maps created through Quantum GIS. In the assessment, vulnerability, physical
and social measures were considered. Maps were layered and a flood risk map was produced. The
assessment reveals that 18.94% of the barangay area is in low risk, 19.20% is in medium risk and
10.64% is in high risk.

Introduction
Marikina City suffers problems related to flooding. The low-lying areas near the Marikina River are more
likely to develop floods anytime the water level rises or in an event of heavy rainfall. Barangay Malanday belongs to
one of the smallest area but the largest among other barangays in terms of population. The barangay’s experience
with the effects of typhoons and monsoon rains caught the researchers’ attention to conduct a flood risk assessment.
Due to rapid developments in the area, many problems occurred that results to flooding. Buildings sprung up in
places where some may have not been properly authorized. Factories line up in riverbanks and unceremoniously
discharge waste into the river.1

“Flooding has been a fact of life in Marikina”, residents frequently say. According to the natives of
Marikina that before typhoon “Ondoy” even occurred, the major and worst flooding that they can remember was the
one that happened in the year 1992 where the depth of water reached the top of the electrical post and is nearly
equivalent to three storey. The flood almost covered a big part of the municipality affecting 10,000 households.2

This study focuses to address the growing concern of worsening floods by assessing its risk through
producing flood risk map considering both hazard and vulnerability through a software called Quantum GIS.
HECRAS was also used to simulate floods with unsteady flow producing list of depths in meter. The data gathered
were helpful to justify where Barangay Malanday can take steps to reduce risk of flooding in their area. The output
will be a great help to develop plans in the barangay.

The use of an average annual rainfall in a given range of time, mostly a 10-year rainfall is the main
component of flood hazard. A rainfall event recorded was the Habagat in 2012 or the southwest monsoon rains
where Marikina River reached a high and deadly level of 19 meters, leading to a serious threat to the residents of

1
Asian Development Bank (2008), "Country Water Action: Flood Ready Marikina City," pp. 1-3, October 2008.

2
Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH), "Habagat (2012) Flood in Marikina City, Metro Manila," August 7,
2012
Marikina. The water level increased up to 9.49 m because of the heavy and continuous rainfall.3 Compared to
analyzing annual average rainfall of a given time range, flood simulation of specific rainfall event like Habagat
would result to a more accurate assessment in the study area because it produced a presentation of flood flow. Other
significant rainfall event that caused flooding was typhoon Mario in 2014. A fourth alarm of the city’s local early
warning system was raised on Friday, 19th of September 2014, and residents were forced to evacuate their homes as
the water level reached a critical 19.9 meters, according to the city’s Public Information Office. 4 In this case, among
the major significant flooding event, the researchers considered the Habagat rainfall event in 2012 because flooding
in this event was purely caused by continuous rain.

The study focused on the flood risk mapping of Barangay Malanday, Marikina City based on the Habagat
2012 rainfall event. Barangay Malanday was chosen to be the study area because among all barangays in Marikina
City, it has the highest population density which pertains to greater risk. The study covered the flood hazard and
flood vulnerability index determination to produce the flood risk map of the area.

Objective of the Study

The main objective is to produce a flood risk map of Barangay Malanday, Marikina City based on the
hazard and vulnerability index that utilized the data from Habagat or southwest monsoon rainfall event in year 2012.

Literature Review

Different approaches for creating flood hazard maps were developed by different states for their own
purposes. One of them is the federal state of the European community. A German working group on water issues
outlines the creation process and recommendations on map content, requirements for creating maps, quality
management and publishing maps. In Germany, the most commonly displayed features are the water levels and
inundation. Therefore, German flood risk maps indicate the areas in the flood plain where overflow might occur and
is based on the workflow used in Baden – Wirrtemberg. 5

In recent decades, flood disaster has been occurring frequently in West Africa. The Niger River Basin,
located in the heart of West Africa, has not been spared from the flood hazard that is threatening human security in
the region. Despite the suffering in floods, studies regarding flood risk are very rare in their country which leads to
the motivation of this research.6 The method used in this study, follows an indicator-based approach where
vulnerability is seen as physical, social, economic, environmental characteristics and conditions that make people or
communities susceptible to the damaging effects of flood. This form of vulnerability assessment has been
recognized internationally and is stressed in the Hyogo Framework for Action. 7
.

3
Project NOAH, ibid.
4
Marikina Public Information Office, "Bagyong Mario Update," 2014

5
Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection, and the Energy Sector Baden Württemberg , "Flood Risk Maps in Baden
Württemberg,"

6
Behanzin et. al, "GIS - Based Mapping of Flood Vulnerability and Risk in the Benin Niger River Valley”, International Journal
of Geomatics and Geosciences, Volume 6, No 3, 2015.

7
Jorn Birkman, "Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and definitions, In
Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies," United Nations University Press, December
2006..
Materials and Methods
Data Gathering

The data were gathered from different government agencies. The inputs for HEC-RAS are water depth and
the digital terrain model (DTM) of the study area. Water depth data came from the Effective Flood Control
Operating System (EFCOS) of Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA). The data gathered were the water
depth in an hourly update of the monsoon rain or Habagat in year 2012, from the Nangka Rainfall and Water Level
Monitoring Station. Nangka is located in the upstream part of the river and is the nearest monitoring station to the
study area.

Inputs for Quantum GIS were land use, number of houses/buildings alongside with the quality of roof and
wall material in the area. Zoning map pertaining to land use was given by the Planning Department of Marikina City
Hall which has been the basis of the vulnerability parameters.

The researchers have gone through several ocular visits for the observation and collection of data regarding
the buildings and houses built in the study area. The indicators chosen were based on the availability of the data and
their relevance to vulnerability theories. The researchers also used computer software Google Earth to manually
count the number of households/buildings. The qualities of roof and wall material were manually inspected through
the Google Street View.

Flood Risk Map

The main Input to HEC-RAS for the determination of flood depths is the hourly water depths in Nangka
Station in order to see the critical areas of the barangay. Water depth reflected the flood hazard map using QGIS.
Second is the determination of the flood vulnerability index (FVI). The group only deliberated the indicators based
on the availability of the data. This includes number of households and material composition of the
buildings/houses. The vulnerability index result was then the input in QGIS producing flood vulnerability map.
Lastly, both maps are layered to produce the flood risk map. The flow of the research process is shown in Figure 1.

Flood
Hydrologic
Hazard Modelling
Map
Flood
Risk Physical
Measures
Map Flood Flood
Vulnerability Vulnerability
Index Socio-
Map economic
Measures

Figure 1. Flow chart of methodology

This risk is calculated through a formula as shown in Equation 1.

R=HxV Eqn. 1

Where:
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
Flood Hazard Map

Hazard map was created using geospatial software Quantum GIS. The exported flood depths from HEC-
RAS showed different levels of flood depths by area and its hazard by highlighting different parts of the barangay
depending on the water level of flood. Flood depths in meters are based on the criteria from DOST Project NOAH,
as shown in Figure 2 and Table 1.

Table 1 Range Values of Flood Depth

Range of Values Categories
(Flood depth in meters)
1.5 – < High Flood Hazard
0.5 – 1.5 Medium Flood Hazard
0.1 – 0.5 Low Flood Hazard

Figure 2 Range Values of Flood Depth

Flood Vulnerability Index

Vulnerability components include physical and socio-economic measures, and to calculate the Flood
Vulnerability Index, Equation 2 was used.

FVI = PM + SM Eqn. 2

Where:
FVI = Flood Vulnerability Index
PM = Physical measures
SM = Socio-economic measures

Physical measures include the roof and wall materials the buildings or houses which were evaluated
through Equation 3.
PM = (RM + WM)/2 Eqn. 3

Where:
PM = Physical measures
RM = Poor roof material normalized value
WM = Poor wall material normalized value

The social measure that were considered is the population density based on number of families living in the
location, calculated using Equation 4.

SM = NF/A Eqn. 4
 Where:
SM = Socio-economic Measure
NF = Total number of households
A = Total Area

Use of HEC-RAS and QGIS

HEC-RAS are used nowadays to quickly perform and analyze data for areas that are prone to flooding.
HEC-RAS can perform one and two-dimensional hydraulic calculations or even mixed. The software interface is
user-friendly and can perform hydraulic analysis in almost all cases that includes data storage and management.
Also, it has built in GIS reader which is the RAS mapper.

The input requirements for the model are channel and flood-plain elevations, both the right and left channel
bank locations, Manning’s roughness coefficients for channel and overbanks, contraction and expansion
coefficients, downstream cross-section distances, flow data and any one-boundary condition such as known water
surface elevation, critical depth, normal depth, or rating curve. The basic computational concept of HEC-RAS on
one-dimensional energy equation for steady flow includes the energy equation and Manning’s formula.

In this study, the flood depths recorded during the monsoon or the Habagat in 2012 were used as a specific
rainfall event for the accuracy of the assessment. The flood simulation of the Habagat 2012 produced a
representation of the flood flow. Collections of hourly water depth produce the frequency of rainfall magnitudes.

QGIS, a single user application, creates and shares maps with many layers using different map projections.
QGIS compared to other GIS applications is open source software. This software enables user to visualize, manage,
edit, analyze data, and compose printable maps. QGIS can carry out basic mapping and can accomplish simple to
complex spatial queries, and visualizing patterns of species distribution, status and concerns. 8

Flood Risk Map

Combining the flood maps, hazard map and flood vulnerability map, the study had produced the flood risk
map of the study area. Figure 3 shows the concept of the combination of hazard classes and vulnerability classes that
produced the risk map. This risk is calculated through a formula as shown in Equation 5.

R=HxV Eqn. 5

Where:
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability

8
Rick Jason Tatlonghari, "Basic GIS Training For multi-hazard mapping of selected Barangays in Camarines Sur and
Catanduanes," Legazpi City, Albay, August 4-8, 2009.
 Figure 3 Flood Risk as the Junction of Hazard and Vulnerability 9

Results
Flood depth from HEC-RAS

The determination of flood depth (see Figure 4) is necessary in identifying the severity of the flood hazard.
It was done by performing a flood simulation focusing only within the study area. The required data input for a 2D
simulation are the hydrologic data such as rainfall event and the topography of the area which is the.

The hydrologic data used was the water level observed every hour in the nearest station of Effective Flood
Control Operating System (EFCOS) from the study area. The output of the simulation was able to identify the
critical flood depth of the whole area. The flood depth was extracted focusing only in Barangay Malanday.

The map in Figure 4 shows the result of the flood depth simulation using the records during the Habagat
2012 using HEC-RAS with inputs of water level data from EFCOS and the elevation data from Phil LiDAR. Its
shades of color correspond to the level of flood in every grid. Darker shades represent deeper flood.

[9] Julian Eleutério, “Flood risk analysis: impact of uncertainty in hazard modelling and vulnerability
assessmentsondamageestimations”, Economies and finances, Université de Strasbourg, 2012.
 Figure 4. Flood depth map of Habagat 2012

Flood Hazard

The flood hazard map shown in the Figure 5 represents the level of risk in several areas of the barangay
based on its flood depth. The level of risk was categorized as low risk, medium risk and high risk having a range of
less than 0.5 meters, between 0.5 meters and 1.5 meters, and above 1.5 meters respectively. Considering Barangay
Malanday, 7.36% of its area is in low risk, 3.97% is in medium risk, and 37.45% is in high risk.

Figure 5. Flood Hazard Map due to Habagat 2012

Flood Vulnerability

Vulnerability in the context of disaster risk is defined as the diminished capacity of an individual or group
to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard. In this study, Flood
vulnerability considered both the place and the population in measuring its flood vulnerability which were classified
as the physical and social measures.

The normalized values for the components of flood vulnerability are shown in the Table 2. Each measure is
ranged from 0-1 depending on the percentage results. For physical measures, zone 1 has the highest percentage of
poor wall while zone 2 has the highest percentage for poor roof. While for the social measure, zone 1 has the highest
concentrated population. The average of the normalized values is then calculated to compute the overall flood
vulnerability index. The result of overall flood vulnerability index is shown in Table 3. Barangay zones were ranked
from 1 to 3 depending on the level of risk. Zone 1 got the high vulnerability, zone 2 got the medium vulnerability
and zone 3 got the low vulnerability.

Table 2 Normalized values of vulnerability components

Variable Values (%) Normalized Values
Physical Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Measures
Poor Wall
59.1 35.01 48.86 1 0 0.5
Material
Poor Roof
47.17 53.1 21.59 0.5 1 0
Material
AI 0.75 0.5 0.25
Concentration Normalized Values
(Household Area)
Socio Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Measures
Residency in
Flood Prone 0.014 0.011 0.005 1 0.5 0
Areas
AI 1 0.5 0

Table 3 Overall flood vulnerability index

Vulnerability Components Vulnerability
Zones Risk
Physical Socio Index
Zone 1 0.75 1 0.875 3
Zone 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 2
Zone 3 0.25 0 0.125 1

Flood vulnerability map for Barangay Malanday is shown in Figure 6 and was divided into three zones
based on its land use. The zones were ranked as low risk, medium risk, and high risk based on its level of
vulnerability to flood. The components considered for vulnerability were socio and physical measures. Zone 1
ranked as the highest risk of vulnerability with 14% of the total area, Zone 2 as the medium risk having 26.78% and
Zone 3 as the lowest having 59.22%.
 Figure 6. Flood Vulnerability Map

Flood Risk Map

Flood risk was formulated as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Overlaying the flood hazard map on
the flood vulnerability map produces the flood risk map. In totality, less than one fourth of the area of Barangay
Malanday has the highest flood risk. These are the areas that are both high in flood depth (hazard) and high in
vulnerability to flood. Compared to the area of high risk in flood hazard map to the area of high risk in flood risk
map, flood risk map has the smaller area covered. It is because some parts of the barangay have high flood depth but
less vulnerable to flood and vice versa which represents the medium risk while the area of low risk have both low in
flood depth and less vulnerable to flood.

Flood risk map has low risk, medium risk and high risk represented by the color yellow, orange and red.
18.94% of the area of Barangay Malanday is in low risk, 19.20% is in medium risk and 10.64% is in high risk.
 Figure 5. Flood Risk Map of Barangay Malanday

Analysis

Flood risk assessment helps in determining the strong and weak areas of a place in coping up flood
damages through analysis of its flood hazard and flood vulnerability.

The output of the study was a simulation of the flood caused by Habagat 2012 from August 6, 2012 to
August 9, 2012. The simulation identified the critical depth of the entire Marikina City and it was observed that only
half of the Barangay Malanday was inundated. The flood depth map output from HEC-RAS was used to produce the
flood hazard map. Based on the result of the flood hazard map, 37.45% of the area of Barangay Malanday has the
highest risk of flood. While for the flood vulnerability, Zone 1 is the most vulnerable to flood. Considering the
socio-economic component, Zone 1 has the smallest area among all the zones but it is calculated as high risk due to
the high ratio of number of household over area and high percentage of poor wall and roof materials of built
structures.

Flood risk map is the representation of the total accumulated flood risk in Barangay Malanday which
specifies the areas with its respective flood risk level. As an overall assessment of flood risk, less than one fourth of
the area of Barangay Malanday is in high risk of flooding. Those are the areas that are both high in flood depth
(hazard) and high in vulnerability to flood.

Discussion
Based on the findings, the researchers suggest that areas identified as high risk must be considered in the
development plan of the area to avoid greater risk during flooding. Proposals for development in the study area shall
be accompanied by a flood risk assessment to reduce the overall risk.

The hazard, vulnerability and risk map generated in this study could be a reference for Barangay Malanday
or Marikina City as a whole.
References:
Asian Development Bank (2008), "Country Water Action: Flood Ready Marikina City," pp. 1-3, October 2008.
[Online]: https://www.adb.org/results/country-water-action-flood-ready-marikina-city

Jorn Birkman, "Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and
definitions, In Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies," United Nations
University Press, December 2006.

Julian Eleutério, “Flood risk analysis: impact of uncertainty in hazard modelling and vulnerability
assessmentsondamageestimations”, Economies and finances, Université de Strasbourg, 2012. [Onine]:
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00821011/document

Idelbert Dagbégnon Behanzin, Michael Thiel, Joerg Szarzynski, Michel Boko, "GIS - Based Mapping of Flood
Vulnerability and Risk in the Benin Niger River Valley”, International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences,
Volume 6, No 3, 2015.

Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection, and the Energy Sector Baden Württemberg, "Flood Risk Maps in
Baden Württemberg," [Online]: https://um.baden-wuerttemberg.de/en/topics/sustainable-river-basin-
management/flood-risk-management/

Marikina Public Information Office, "Bagyong Mario Update," 2014

Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH), "Habagat (2012) Flood in Marikina City, Metro Manila,"
August 7, 2012. [Online]: https://center.noah.up.edu.ph/habagat-2012-flood-marikina-city/

Rick Jason Tatlonghari, "Basic GIS Training For multi-hazard mapping of selected Barangays in Camarines Sur
and Catanduanes," Legazpi City, Albay, August 4-8, 2009. [Online]:
https://www.preventionweb.net/files/13932_ACF2.pdf