Hybrid Cars - 30%

Drive
Transportation
Association, Dec
Author: Dexter Snyder and Kenneth 1, 2013
Harris 2. Plug-in hybrid
and conventional
Publication Date: Jan 23, 2016
hybrids will
account for 7% of
the US market by
Summary 2025., US Energy
Information
Pioneered by Japanese car makers, the first Service, 2013
mass-produced alternative to the internal 3. Annual sales of
combustion engine has been so successful that gas and plug-in
it seems likely to revolutionize car design. hybrids for
Hybrid autos are powered by a small gasoline passenger cars
engine that operates only at high speeds where should total 18.5%
it is most efficient. A battery powers the vehicle by 2025., J.D.
at lower speeds, reducing pollution and Power, Apr 29,
providing huge gains in fuel economy. Hybrids 2013
use electric motors to drive wheels, a battery to
store energy, and regenerative braking to
recover it. Future models may use composite Notes
bodies to save weight. Diesel-engine hybrids
are even more fuel efficient, and plug-in
hybrids are now available that permit
recharging batteries from the grid at off-hours
when costs are low. Hybrids face competition EXPERT SURVEY
from electric, fuel cell, and particularly internal
combustion cars, which all are improving.
RESULTS
If present indications hold and cost Adoption Level Being
improvements continue, TechCast estimates
adoption will lead industry estimates and hit 30 Forecast:
percent of car sales by 2022 +/- 3 years,
producing a global market of about US$1 Hybrids make up 30 percent of new cars,
Trillion. trucks, and other vehicles.

Adoption Level and Market Distributions

Size Data
Life References TREND ANALYSIS
Cycle Adoption Level
Graph 1. US sales of
Market Size PROS: Trends Driving this
A. Global sales
conventional and will be roughly Event
plug-in hybrids in US$510 billion for
2012 were 3.2% hybrids cars by Government Support
of the vehicle 2025., J.D. Power,
market., Electric Apr 29, 2013
 Governments around the world support supercar weighs only 61 lb! (3D Print,
hybrids thrrough subsidies and other benefits. Jun 24, 2015) See also the Foresight
article, Move Over, Henry Ford.
 US, EU, Canada, China, and  Compact Gas Engines Toyota has
Japan These nations offer subsidies of developed a linear free-piston engine
various kinds for purchase of hybrid that will generate 13 HP in a compact
cars, ranging from US$3,000 to more package that is easy to cool and
than US$10,000. Some nations also lubricate. Two such engines used as on-
require higher fuel efficiency standards, board generators allow a Corolla-size
which also encourages purchases of car to cruise at 75 mph. (Green Car
fuel efficient vehicles. In the US, for Reports, April 30, 2014)
instance, President Obama set a goal of  Compressed Air Scuderi, in West
having 1 million electrics and hybrids on Springfield, MA, has designed a new
the road by 2015, and new fuel type of hybrid that uses one of the
standards are 35.5 mpg by 2016 and engine's cylinders to store compressed
54.5 mpg by 2025. (Wall Street Journal, air, which can be used to boost the
Jan 19, 2012; Ministry of Transportation of engine's efficiency. (MIT Technology
Ontario, May 4, 2013; AutoblogGreen Apr Review, Sep 30, 2011) See our forecast
11, 2011; European Automobile on Power Storage.
Manufacturers Association, Mar 14, 2011)  Flywheels The Flybird uses a flywheel
 China Beginning to Export Volvo, to store energy instead of the battery.
now Chinese-owned, plans to export Ricardo, a UK engineering firm, is
vehicles to the US beginning in 2015. If testing a flywheel system called Kinergy.
they are successful, this opens the door (Innovation Scene UK, Aug 30, 2011)
to manufacturing hybrid vehicles at the Volvo has a hybrid with a flywheel that
world's most competitive cost. (South gives the four-cylinder engine the
China Morning Post, Jan 12, 2015) performance of a six-cylinder with a 25-
percent gain in fuel economy. (Volvo,
A Big Industry with Improving Apr 29, 2013)
 Hydraulics Chrysler is teaming with
Technology EPA to develop a hybrid in which the
engine drives a hydraulic pump to power
Toyota (the Prius), GM (the Volt), Honda the wheels. (EPA, 2012)
(Insight, Volvo, Mercedes, Volkswagen, China  Wave Disk Engine Michigan State
(BYD), Russia (the Yo), and others make up University researchers have built an
a total of about 20 car makers who build gas engine that use shock waves to ignite
hybrids, plug in hybrids, and diesel hybrids. compressed fuel and air. There are no
Models include small sedans, sports cars, pistons, rods, crankshaft, valves, spark
SUVs, and light trucks in both economy and plugs, or cooling system. It is expected
luxury brands. Prices range from $25,000 to to run at 60-percent efficiency, in
$50,000 and performance varies. (Progressive contrast to the typical ICE, which runs at
Automotive XPrize; International Business Times, about 15 percent. It should also take
Jul 9, 2013; Autoblog, Sep 13, 2013; Forbes, May about 1,000 pounds off of the car's
4, 2013; Gizmag, Mar 8, 2013) The range of more weight and reduce emissions 90
inventive solutions to the hybrid concept is percent. (Michigan State, Apr 6, 2013)
vast. Here are some examples:  Lithium Batteries Poly Plus is
developing a lithium-ion battery that is
 Lightweight Construction Divergent lighter and lasts longer between
Microfactories has introduced a charges. (Electric Vehicle News, May 22,
revolutionary way to build cars from 2013) A Waterloo University team is
graphite tubes connected by 3D-printed building a lithium-sulfur battery that
alloy joints. The chassis for a 700-hp stores three times the power of
 conventional batteries. (Waterloo efficient than conventional engines.
University, Dec 14, 2011) (EcoMotors, Jan 11, 2014) Nissan has
developed the supercharged, gasoline-
Synergies with Aerospace powered, 3-cylinder that gets a
combined 68.9 mpg. (Gizmag, Feb 18,
Hybrids 2011) The ICE Chevrolet Cruze Eco gets
40 mpg on the highway, compared to 49
 Hybrid-Electric Airplanes A for the Toyota Prius. (Gizmag, Mar 30,
partnership of Cambridge U. and Boeing 2010)
has developed a single-engine plane  Diesel Modern diesel cars achieve
with a parallel hybrid-electric propulsion greater fuel economy than gasoline
system, with a reported 30-percent fuel ICEs, meet strict environmental
savings over gasoline-only. Energy is standards, are competitively priced, and
stored in light lithium-ion batteries that take 50 percent of the European auto
can be charged in flight. (Phys Org, Dec market. US consumers and
23, 2014) Airbus is developing an "E- manufacturers are reviving interest in
Thrust" hybrid system, and NASA is them. (New York Times, Dec 2, 2011) By
developing a hybrid plane called Sceptor some estimates, diesels could hold 6-to-
with small electric engines on the 9 percent of the U.S. market by 2020.
leading edges of the wings to improve (Morning Shift, May 19, 2014)
airflow lift and fuel efficiency. Like an  Legacy Vehicles Because cars last 15
auto hybrid, hyrbid planes can recapture years or so, it takes a long time to
energy during descent by letting the replace the fleet of vehicles. Hybrids
electric motors generate electricity. (The were first introduced in 1999 but still
Economist, Sep19, 2015) make up only a small percent of present
 Hybrid Flying Car The Krossblade auto fleets.
developmental vehicle transforms from
helicopter, to plane, to road vehicle. It is
powered by a hybrid electric powertrain, Cost, Batteries, and Other
with electric drive used on takeoff and Needs
landing to reduce noise and
emissions. (Krossblade, Feb 6, 2015) Hybrids face continuing challenges from high
costs, fuel and charging requirements, and the
need to improve batteries:
CONS: Obstacles
Opposing this Event  Plug-in Requirements Mass adoption
of plug-in hybrids will require electrical
outlets in the parking areas of multiple-
Competing Alternatives occupant dwellings, quick charging units
at service stations, and smart electric
The hybrid concept faces competition from
meters to encourage owners to recharge
electric cars, advanced conventional engines,
their cars in off-peak hours. Installing
diesels, and other possibilities. Many think it is
this infrastructure will take significant
simply a transition to an all-electric world.
time and investment.
 Batteries the Weakest Link The
 Internal Combustion
lithium-ion batteries currently used in
Engines Features such as fuel
hybrids offer only limited range and
injection, variable valve timing, and
require several hours to recharge. In
cylinder cutout are making gas engines
extreme collisions where the battery
more efficient. EcoMotors is building a
cases are penetrated, they can overheat
gas engine that is reported to be
and catch fire. Lithium is in short supply
cheaper and 50 percent more fuel-
and comes mainly from Bolivia, which is
 politically unstable. Some think we will A New Economic Sector
see a "peak lithium" crisis, much like the
peak oil crisis, as demand for electric Emerges
and hybrid cars grows.
 Costs Hybrids cost more because of A more energy efficient, high-tech economic
their electric motor, regenerative brakes, sector is emerging to make and service
and other components not found in gas- hybrids.
engined cars. The higher costs
encourages a car owner would have to  Less Fuel Needed Hybrids
drive a lot for the long-term savings in dramatically cut fuel consumption and
fuel costs to justify the additional transportation-related pollution. With
purchase price. (Guardian, Feb 3, 2014) plug-in technology, drivers can meet
local transportation needs predominantly
with electric power supplied from the
Peak Car grid, with even greater reductions.
 Improves Electric Cars Hybrid
There are signs that the worldwide growth
of auto sales may be saturating, leading to vehicles require much of the technology
what some call "peak car." Demand for owning need for pure electric drive, including the
cars is dropping among young people, on- electric motor, high-temperature
demand transport like Uber is increasingly converters, and regenerative braking.
common, smart mobile devices are replacing The growing hybrid market generates
travel, and self-driving taxis are not too far off. capital for manufacturers to improve
Cities like Lyon, France, Birmingahm, England, these innovations.
 Charging Infrastructure Spreads The
and Helsinki, Finland plan to see most
residents traveling by a variety of transport network of public charging options is
modes rather than owning autos. David Metz, a growing as the market expands for plug-
British government official and academic, said in hybrids
"Car use per capita in most of the developed
world has stopped growing." (Guardian, Apr 28,
2015)

IMPACTS: On Tech,
Business and Society