Expedia
Expedia
Expedia
Expedia is part of the very competitive online travel industry within the
more broad lodging industry. The industry seems to grow as fast as the
internet itself does. Back in 1999, the Travel Industry Association of America
reported that 15.1 million consumers booked their travel online.2 10 years
later that number had jumped to 70 million. Consumers are transitioning
from using the traditional travel agent to booking online. The online travel
industry is causing traditional travel agencies to modify and update their
business models to compete and stay relevant.
According to a Forbes article, Competitive Landscape Of The U.S.
Online Travel Market Is Transforming, Expedia, Priceline, Orbitz Worldwide
and Travelocity own 95% of the U.S. online travel market (as of April 2014).
While Expedia dominates the U.S. with about 40% of the market share,
Priceline has 35% in Europe. A benefit to the internet is being able to easily
penetrate worldwide markets.3 While domestic U.S. travel bookings could
satisfy the market, if another company is able to meet more demand for
global travel and create more business, the industry leader could shift. The
leaders and laggards will depend on whether youre examining the online
travel industry on a national or international level. And even then, if a
Porters 5
and 2.35 billion in Net Income. Priceline also has the highest earnings per
share at 44.27
.
Table and data from: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=EXPE+Industry. As of November 26th,
2014.
The online travel industry is in the mature stage, and is thus highly
competitive. Existing firms compete for market share and acquire other
companies to keep their relevance. There are low switching costs for
consumers, so theres a bigger struggle for the companies to keep their
customers. A new technological innovation could push a company farther
ahead of the other competitors. Just as the traditional travel industry does,
the online travel agency has to stay flexible to changes in the external
environment. Innovation is important to sustain competitiveness.
Any first-movers who are able to create the next big thing will
instantly reap the benefits. They will be able to earn above-average returns
until the competitors are able to catch up and respond. Second movers in
this industry in specific would benefit in seeing how consumers respond to
and use new technology. Second movers benefit in being able to wait and
watch. They gain time for research and development to create a more
superior product in response. The online travel agency has only been in
existence for approximately 20 years. So to be able to develop in such a
short amount of time, competitors would have had to develop and respond
to innovations in technology (and thus the industry).
entry especially involving economies of scale will prevent any small start-up
companies from entering if their technology isnt as advanced as the
companies already in the industry.
Expedia has been an innovator since inception. The company gained a
head start by being created through Microsoft. More recently, Expedia
features a service called TravelAds , a sponsored search product for hotel
advertisers.7 In 2011, Expedia expanded travel ads to Europe. The product
was described as easy to use, flexible and a high return-on-investment to
Expedia hotel partners worldwide. A new entrant would have to create a
relationship with hotels and airlines to even be considered a competitor and
this would be extremely difficult to do when just starting out.
If a new entrant could offer lower prices on travel and other online
services, they may be able to compete. The basis of this industry involves
the best deals on travel and easy to use online services. The new companys
product would have to feature a superior website that is quick and easy to
use for consumers. For Expedia to continue to see success, consumers have
to return to their site and buy their services while new consumers join.
Another barrier to entry a new entrant would face involves patents.
Priceline filed a lawsuit against Expedia in 1999 regarding patent
infringement related to technology for connecting an anonymous seller to a
block of potential buyers. 5 As far as patented technology goes, a new
entrant would have to make sure their processes arent infringing any
already used. In essence, Expedia and the already existing companies in the
industry have a leg up on any new entrants due to intangible resources such
as information, reputation and knowledge that the newcomers wouldnt have
access to.
3. Power of suppliers
losing profit on the room in that sense, versus potentially not selling the
room at all.
4. Power of Buyers
directly from the source. That cuts Expedia directly out of the entire
equation.
Online travel agencies just hope that consumers choose to use their
company and not go straight to the source. The industry relies on offering
lower prices or better deals than their competitors and the source. But
ultimately, the online travel agent middleman isnt necessary to get the
buyer to the ultimate supplier of the service which Expedia has to overcome.
For Expedia, the value chain integration in services comes in the form
of low prices, convenience, and access to special time-sensitive deals and
travel packages. Through this model, the company is able to provide
diversified travel services as well as bargain prices, mostly to attract
individual travelers. These services are penetrating to the corporate travel
area, which has historically been the domain of travel agents business.
Much of the Expedias success is due to the expanse of its operations,
and the competitive advantage due to its many subsidiaries strategic
partnerships. Such attributes give the company the ability to negotiate, offer
lower prices to its customers, and reach various market segments. Because
Expedia was an early entrant to the online travel services market, it has
solidified its position and gained valuable expertise. The key to manage all
these tiers of service is information. Expedia manages information to make
these value chains more efficient and create value for their customers, and it
uses information networks provided by third-party information technology
integrators to coordinate their value chains.
Expedia can create complete packages from the different options.
Local or Internet-based travel agencies help customers to select the package
that is right for them. Moreover, consumers are searching the globe for new
travel experiences and destinations. The Internet enables even the most
remote holiday destinations to be presented to an international clientele.
Expedia markets their services alone or teams up with partners across the
world to reach a bigger audience, and, consequently, more customers.
Examples of the companys key partners are international hotel chains such
as Hilton and Sheraton, and local tour operators.
Not only is Expedia based and present in the United States, they also
have a very strong presence in United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and
many other countries. It offers travel products and services via its supply
portfolio which includes more than 260,000 hotels in 200 countries, 400
airlines, packages, rental cars, cruises, as well as destination services and
activities. The online travel giant said approximately 60 million unique
visitors visit its sites on a monthly basis and through December 31, 2013,
there were over 90 million global downloads of its mobile applications across
its numerous brands.
Brand Expedia also has a joint venture with low-cost airline AirAsia
(AIABF) in Asia Pacific that allows Expedia sites to be the only official third
party online distribution channel for AirAsia content. As part of an exclusive,
long-term strategic marketing agreement with Travelocity signed during the
third quarter of 2013, Brand Expedia launched hotel and air products on the
Travelocity-branded websites for the U.S. and expects to complete the
majority of the migration of the remaining products and the Canada website
during the first half of 2014.
Note: The results of the following adjustment are shown on the adjusted
financial statement in the Appendix:
different amounts added (Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw, P491). For example,
Expedias unadjusted long-term debt to shareholders equity in 2013 was
55% based on $1,249,412/ $2,258,985. After adding the long-term portion of
the capital lease liability, the ratio will increased to 63% based on
($1,249,412+$167,285)/ $2,258,985. Compare with that of Expedia,
Pricelines long-term ratio also increase substantially due to the adding big
portion of long-term debt in 2013.
Consistent with changes on the balance sheet, income statement also
needs to be adjusted because rent expenses will be eliminated and
depreciation and interest expenses will be added due to the capitalized asset
and lease obligation recognized on the balance sheet. For Expedia, both
years lease expenses are greater than combining depreciation and interest
expenses, which increase equity after net of tax by $28,150 thousands and
$27,474 thousands for 2013 and 2012 respectively. In comparison, Pricelines
equity in 2013 decreases by $1,705 thousands due to the rent expenses are
less than the combining deprecation and interest expenses. After all the
adjustments were made, comparability of Expedia and Priceline financial
statements will be improved.
Calculation of depreciation is based on the historical cost of a longloved asset less than salvage life to the periods of its use in a rational
manner. Salvage life may vary from time to time. For example, technology
upgrade changes so fast that its life will be obsolescence shortly (Wahlen,
Baginski & Bradshaw, P538). Assets life estimation is very subjective since
mangers determine the assets useful life based on their own needs.
Due to the subjective of assets useful life, managers often chose to
extend assets life to a longer period to get a lower depreciation expenses in
order to get higher earnings on the income statement. GAAP allows firms in
the United States to utilize two depreciation methods. Firms can use straightline depreciation for preparing financial reporting and accelerated
depreciation for tax purpose. Based on the requirements of the assignment,
we converted the straight-line basis of Expedia and Priceline to accelerated
basis to analyze the financial statement.
We identified the deferred tax liability related to property plant and
equipment disclosed in the note 11 of income tax. However, there is no
necessary for adjusting the property, plant and equipment of Priceline
because depreciation expenses of PP&E are integrated with other
amortization expenses of intangible assets in the footnote.
To convert the straight-line depreciation to accelerated depreciation, firstly
we adjusted balance sheets of Expedia in 2013 and 2012. We calculated the
excess accumulated depreciation over time of $226,354 thousands in 2013
and $700,500 thousands in 2012 by deferred tax liability divided by the tax
rate.
LIFO To FIFO
Since Priceline and Expedia are both website for purchasing discounted
air tickets, they do not have inventory so that we did not need adjust the
inventory from LIFO to FIFO
R&D
Priceline did not have any research and development cost related to
the business and we did not need to make any adjustment.
Because the customers of Priceline and Expedia mainly pay with credit
card, they do not have the allowance for doubtful account.
Ratio Analysis
Note: The results of the following adjustment are shown on the adjusted
financial statement in the Appendix:
Profit Ratio
competitor shows weak operating cash flow they are doing well at net
income. Comparatively, Expedias operating earnings have been dropping for
the past 4 years, despite rising revenues, and as mentioned before, SG&A is
on the rise
Risk ratio
Current ratio indicates the firms ability of using cash and other current
assets to cover obligations coming due within one year. working capital
turnover ratios measure the cash-generating ability of operations and the
short-term liquidity risk. Debt ratios measure the amount of liabilities,
particularly long-term debt, in a firms capital structure. The higher this
proportion, the greater the long-term solvency risks. Operating cash flow to
total liabilities ratio assesses whether the firm could generate cash flow from
operations to service debt. Z-core is a model used to predict the firms
possibility of bankruptcy. Data less than 1.81 indicated a high probability of
bankruptcy, while higher than 3.0 indicated a low probability of bankruptcy.
between 1.81 and 3.00 is fray area. By all measures mentioned above,,
Priceline is doing better than Expedia, as shown in the appendix.
Sustainability
would. Already, Okerstrom reports, Expedia brands have had more than 90
million downloads of their mobile applications and, in December 2013, 20
percent of current transactions were taking place via mobile devices.
there are a lot of people who like to invest in travel startups, and you see a
lot of innovation coming from outside the industry, the CFO said. To retain
our own competitive advantage we really cant be complacent.
Reference:
Expedia Media Solutions Expands Travelads Search Advertising Program To
New International Markets. (n.d.). Retrieved December 4, 2014, from
http://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article54569
(n.d.). Retrieved December 4, 2014, from http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?
s=EXPE Industry
Chen, Kuo Lane, Huei Lee, and Cynthia C. Barnes. "An Analysis of ECommerce Strategy. Used by Internet Travel Sites." Issues in
Information Systems 3 (2002): 102-108. Web. 25 Feb. 2011.
<http://www.iacis.org/iis/2002_iis/PDF%20Files/ChenLeeBarnes.pdf>.
McCartney, Scott. Expedia Drops Air Booking Fees: Temporary or Start of a
Trend.
The Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2009. Web. 22 April 2011.
<http://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/ 2009/03/12/expedia-drops-airbooking-fees-temporary-or-start-of-a-trend/>.
EXPEDIA,
INC.
CONSOLIDATD BALANCE SHEETS
December 31,
2103
Adj
Adj 2013
(In thousands, except per share
data)
2,012
Adj
Adj 2012
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and equivalents
Restricted cash and cash equivalent
Short-term
investments
Accounts receivable, net of allowance of $11,555
and $10,771
Deferred income taxes
Income taxes
receivable
Prepaid expenses and other current
assets
$1,021,03
3
26,042
1,021,03
3
26,042
21,475
21,475
325,510
644,982
644,982
614,735
614,735
461,531
461,531
66,130
66,130
83,034
83,034
64,296
64,296
27,764
27,764
101,541
101,541
0
Property and
equipment, net
480,702
211,029
250,626
1,293,161
325,510
2,219,28
7
1,293,161
14,151
1,111,041
Goodwill
3,663,674
TOTAL
ASSETS
7,739,48
1
-226,35
4
2,219,28
7
465,377
250,626
14,151
1,111,04
1
3,663,67
4
7,724,15
6
110,319
110,319
2,642,26
6
2,642,26
6
409,373
179,590
-111,537
224,231
$700,50
0
224,231
19,787
19,787
821,419
821,419
3,015,670
3,015,670
7,132,74
6
6,611,83
6
1,044,25
9
261,288
1,350,31
9
39,746
61,874
0
433,532
138,300
43,744.
00
536,895
3,294,38
1
1,249,41
2
1,044,25
9
261,288
1,350,31
9
39,746
61,874
364,871
19
43,744
536,895
43,744
167,28
5
-63,379
.00
3,338,12
5
1,416,69
7
954,071
954,071
283,029
1,128,23
1
26,475
62,025
283,029
1,128,23
1
26,475
62,025
0
556,244
556,244
3,041,25
0
1,397,76
0
370,153
343,553
138,300
364,871
19
-
126,912
5,802,14
0
3,465,67
5
1
5,802,14
0
(3,465,6
75)
-
31,175
3,010,07
5
1,249,34
5
13,473
19
31,175.
00
31,175
148415
-93867
249,686
126,912
0
13,473
0
19
0
0
0
5,675,07
5
2,952,79
0
1
0
0
5,675,07
5
2,952,79
0
0
-209,218
18,197
2,145,46
4
113,521
2,258,98
5
7,739,48
1
162,97
5
(209,218
)
18,197
2,145,46
4
113,521
-442,068
-442,068
22
2,280,25
9
109,129
22
2,280,25
9
109,129
2,096,01
0
2,389,38
8
606,63
3
1,782,75
5
7,724,15
6
7,132,74
6
6,611,83
6
EXPEDIA,
INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF
OPERATIONS
0
0
Year ended December 31,
2103
0
2,012
2,012
( In thousnads, except for per
share data)
Revenues
:
Costs and expense:
Cost of revenue
$4,771,25
9
4,030,34
7
4,771,259
4,030,347
0
-1,038,0
34.00
-577,820
.00
-377,078
.00
-71,731.
(1,038,034)
-2,196,145.
00
-898,604
-898,604
1,721,0
37
(2,196,
145)
1,721,0
37
(577,820)
-484,898
-484,898
(377,078)
-345,354
-345,354
(71,731)
-31,705
-31,705
00
lease
expenses
depreciation expenses
Acquisition-related and
other
Lefal reserves, occupancy tax and
other
Operating income
-66,472.
00
-77,919.
00
84,000
70,000
70,000
-30,147.00
78,739
-25656
-212,471
108,886.00
(66,472)
-186815
366,060
Other income
(expense):
Interest income
24,779
Interest expense
-87,358
Other, net
Total other expense,
net
Income from continuing operatations befor
income taxes
Provisions for income
taxes
Income from continuing operations
Discontinued operations, net of
taxes
Net
income
84,000.00
162,739
(77,919)
-117,025
528,799
431,724
-117,025
142,47
1
0
24,779
-14,755.00
-2,788
-65,367
-14,755
300,693
-84,335
216,358
216,358
26,396
(102,113)
-87,788
(2,788)
-20,275
-80,122
-81,667
448,677
-30,488.00
-10,974
26,396
12619.0
0
-12,619
350,057
232,850
232,850
-94,286
194,967
(125,797)
-47,078
24286
-27,313
322,880
302,979
-4,521
167,654
322,880
2103
16,492
-100,407
-20,275
-22,539
-22,539
280,440
145,115
Year ended
December 31,
289,253
0
2,012
16,492
232,850
232,850
2,012
-269
-269
280,171
144,846
0
144,846
280,171
232,850
-22,539
-22,539
257,632
122,307
1.73
1.67
2
2
0
2
2
1.73
1.67
134,912
139,593
0.56
3,752
16,190
20,465
33,123
56,643
232,85
0
2
2
134,912
139,593
1
3,752
16,190
20,465
33,123
56,643
2
2
0
2
2
134,203
139,929
1
3,296
13,474
16,073
31,753
2
2
0
134,203
139,929
1
0
3,296
13,474
16,073
31,753
0
2013
Adj
Adj 2013
2012
adj 2012
1,289,99
4
10,476
5,462,72
0
535,962
107,102
74,687
7,480,94
1
0
1,536,34
9
6,641
3,646,84
5
367,512
84,290
40,738
5,682,37
5
1,536,34
9
6,641
3,646,84
5
367,512
84,290
40,738
5,682,37
5
0
400,569
89,269
89,269
208,113
208,113
522,672
522,672
31,485
35,828
6,569,74
2
31,485
35,828
6,569,74
2
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
Restricted cash
Short-term investments
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for doubtful accounts of 14,116 and 10,322 repectively
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Deferred income taxes
Total current assets
1,289,99
4
10,476
5,462,72
0
535,962
107,102
74,687
7,480,94
1
135,053
1,019,98
5
1,767,91
2
7,055
33,514
10,444,4
60
0
265,516
.00
265,516
1,019,98
5
1,767,91
2
7,055
33,514
10,709,9
76
2013
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabiities:
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities
Deferred merchant bookings
current debt
Convertible debt(See Note 11)
Total current liabilities
long-term debt
Deferred income taxes
Other long-term liabilities
Convertible debt(See Note 11)
Total liabilities
Commitments and Contingencies(See Note 16)
Redeemable noncontrolling interests(See Note 11)
Convertible debt(See Note 11)
Stockholders' equity
Common stock, $0.008 par value, authorized 1,000,000,000 shares, 61,265,160 and
58,055,586 shares issued, respectively
Treasury stock, 9,256,721 and 8,184,787, respectively
Additional paid-in capital
Accumulated earnings
Accumulated other comprehensive income(loss)
Total stockholders' equity
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
247,345
545,342
437,127
0
151,931
1,381,74
5
0
326,425
75,981
1,742,04
7
3,526,19
8
Adj
37,743
37,743
227,773
37,743
0
8,533
Adj 2013
0
0
247,345
545,342
437,127
37,743
151,931
1,419,48
8
0
227,773
326,425
75,981
1,742,04
7
3,791,71
4
0
0
0
8,533
0
0
2012
184,648
387,991
368,823
adj 2012
0
0
184,648
387,991
368,823
520,344
1,461,72
6
520,344
1,461,72
6
0
45,159
68,944
45,159
68,944
881,996
881,996
2,457,82
5
2,457,82
5
0
0
160,287
54,655
0
0
160,287
54,655
476
476
450
450
1,987,20
7
4,592,97
9
4,218,75
2
84,729
6,909,72
9
10,444,4
60
1,987,20
7
4,592,97
9
4,218,75
2
84,729
6,909,72
9
10,709,9
76
1,060,60
7
2,612,19
7
2,368,61
1
-23,676
3,896,97
5
6,569,74
2
1,060,60
7
2,612,19
7
2,368,61
1
-23,676
3,896,97
5
6,569,74
2
0
37,743
Cost of revenues
Gross profit
2013
Adj
Adj 2013
2012
4,410,68
9
2,211,47
4
171,143
6,793,30
6
4,410,68
9
2,211,47
4
171,143
6,793,30
6
3,142,81
5
2,104,75
2
13,389
5,260,95
6
1,077,42
0
5,715,88
6
1,077,42
0
5,715,88
6
0
1,798,64
5
-127,459
-235,817
-698,692
-252,994
-71,890
40,000
-147,477
3,292,97
4
2,422,91
2
0
4,167
-95,237
-36,755
-115,877
2,307,03
5
-403,994
1,903,04
1
135
Operating expenses:
Advertsing-Online
Advertsing-Offline
Sales and marketing
Personnel, including stock-based compensation of 140,526,$65,724,respectively
General and administrative
Information technology
lease expenses
Depreciation and amortization
Total operating expenses
Operating income
Other income(expense):
Interest income
Interest expense
Foreign currency transaction and other
Total other income(expense)
Earnings before income taxes
Income tax expense
Net income
Less: net income attributable to noncontrolling interests
1,798,64
5
-127,459
-235,817
-698,692
-252,994
-71,890
0
-117,975
3,303,47
2
2,412,41
4
4,167
-83,289
-36,755
-115,877
2,296,53
7
-403,739
1,892,79
8
135
40,000
-29,502
-11,948
-255
adj 2012
3,142,815
2,104,752
13,389
5,260,956
1,177,27
5
1,177,275
4,083,68
1
4,083,681
0
1,273,63
7
1,273,637
35,492
195,934
466,838
173,171
43,685
35,492
195,934
466,838
173,171
43,685
65,141
65,141
2,253,88
8
2,253,888
1,829,79
3
1,829,793
3,860
-62,064
-9,720
-67,924
1,761,86
9
337,832
1,424,03
7
4,471
0
3,860
-62,064
-9,720
-67,924
1,761,869
337,832
1,424,037
4,471
Net income
Other comprehensive income(loss),net of tax
Foreign currency translation adjustments(1)
Unrealized gain(loss)on marketable securities(2)
Comprehensive income
Less:Comprehensive income(loss) attributable to redeemable noncontrolling interests
Comprehensive income attributable to common stockholders
1,892,66
3
37
50,924
36
52,413
1,892,66
3
37
50,924
36
52,413
2013
1,892,79
8
2012
1,424,03
7
97,970
21
1,990,78
9
-10,279
2,001,06
8
69,683
-620
1,493,10
0
9,628
1,483,47
2
1,419,56
6
28
49,840
27
51,326
1,419,566
28
49,840
27
51,326
Profit analysis
Expedia
2013
4.88%
61.77%
3.01%
2012
3.03%
60.96%
1.85%
4.88%
61.77%
368.52
%
11.11%
3.03%
60.96%
370.88
%
6.86%
21.76%
53.93%
78.24%
6.77%
22.30%
51.27%
77.70%
3.60%
Profit Margin
Asset Turnover
Return on Assets
Profit Margin for ROCE
Asset Turnover
Capital structure leverage
Priceline
2013
28.01%
63.43%
17.77%
28.01%
63.43%
155.00%
27.54%
15.86%
35.55%
84.14%
28.01%
Expe
dia
2103
2012
Priceli
ne
2013
1
-22%
78%
-54%
11%
-2%
0%
9%
-3%
5%
1
-22%
78%
-51%
7%
-2%
-1%
5%
-1%
3%
1
-16%
84%
-7%
36%
-1%
-2%
34%
-6%
28%
2103
2012
Pricelin
e
2013
13%
8%
4%
1%
20%
7%
10%
1%
12%
5%
51%
1%
1%
29%
6%
0%
14%
47%
100%
2%
40%
-2%
0%
12%
46%
100%
1%
70%
4%
0%
0%
17%
100%
17%
17%
1%
19%
17%
0%
5%
4%
0%
7%
8%
5%
43%
18%
5%
2%
46%
21%
4%
2%
13%
2%
3%
1%
Expedia
Common size balance sheet
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivable, net
Short-term investments
Deferred income taxes
Common Size Income Statement
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Total current assets
Property and equipment, net
Deferred income taxes
Intangible assets, net
Goodwill
Total assets
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
Accounts payable
Deferred merchant bookings
current debt
Accrued expenses and other current
liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term debt
Deferred income taxes
Other long-term liabilities
Total liabilities
Common stock
Additional paid-in capital
Retained earnings (deficit)
Accumulated other comprehensive income
(loss)
Total stockholders' equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
73%
0%
75%
-3%
73%
0%
86%
-7%
35%
0%
43%
39%
0%
0%
1%
27%
27%
65%
Risk analysis
1. Short-term liquidity risk
(1) Current ratio
(2) Quick ratio
(3) Operating cash flow to current liabilities
ratio
(4) Working capital ratios
a) Accounts receivable turnover
Days receivables held
b) Accounts payable turnover
Days payables held
(5) Revenues to cash ratio
(6) Days revenues held in cash
2103
66%
50%
Expedia
2102
87%
58%
Priceline
2103
527%
129%
23%
41%
69%
776%
4703%
80%
45906%
467%
7811%
873%
4180%
73%
50249%
312%
11711%
1267%
2880%
436%
8379%
527%
6931%
Risk analysis
Exepida
2. Long-term solvency risk
(1) Debt ratios
a) Liabilities to assets
b) liabilities to shareholders' equity
c) Long-term debt to long-term capital
d) Long-term debt to shareholders' equity
73%
269%
40%
68%
73%
271%
44%
78%
Priceline
35%
55%
3%
3%
2103
971%
2102
1359%
2103
2941%
14%
26%
61%
87%
79%
269%
3. bankrupcy prediction
Z-core
Assumptions
Income Statement
Sales Growth
Cost of sales (% of Sales)
SG&A (% of Sales)
interest expense(% of debt)
tax rate (% of pretax income)
Balance Sheet
Operating
Days Cash
Days Other Investments(ST)
days receivable
Inventory Turnover
Assumptions
Income Statement
Days Payable
Financing
Long-term Debt/Total Assets
14%
13%
18%
6%
28%
117.11
58.41
41.80
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
18%
16%
20%
7%
28%
15.00%
15.00%
20.00%
7.00%
28.00%
15.00%
15.00%
20.00%
7.00%
28.00%
15.00%
15.00%
20.00%
7.00%
28.00%
17.00%
15.00%
20.00%
7.00%
28.00%
17.00%
15.00%
20.00%
7.00%
28.00%
100.00
40.00
44.00
100.00
40.00
44.00
100.00
40.00
44.00
100.00
40.00
44.00
100.00
40.00
44.00
78.11
24.90
47.03
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
112.04
459.06
250.00
250.00
250.00
250.00
250.00
21.14%
18.34%
20.00%
20.00%
20.00%
20.00%
20.00%
Sales Growth
14%
18%
15.00%
15.00%
15.00%
17.00%
17.00%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4,771,25
9
1,372,80
0
3,398,45
9
(715,689
)
4,771,25
9
1,578,72
0
3,192,53
9
(715,689
)
4,771,25
9
1,847,10
2
2,924,15
7
(811,114
)
2,861,831
2,682,77
0
2,476,85
0
2,113,04
3
261,439
261,439
261,439
261,439
Income Statement
Net sales (% Growth in Sales)
Cost of sales (% of Sales)
Gross margin
SG&A (% of Sales)
Other Operating Expenses
Nonrecuring Gains and Losses
Operating income
Investment and other income
Interest Income (% of investment)
Net Interest Expense (% of net debt)
Income before income taxes & chg in acct
principle
Income tax provision
Net income
- Preferred dividends
4,771,25
9
1,038,03
4
3,733,22
5
(2,573,2
23)
(77,919)
1,082,08
3
24,779
(102,113
)
1,004,74
9
281,330
1,286,07
9
4,771,259
1,193,739
3,577,520
(715,689)
(3,521)
3,119,749
873,530
3,993,278
(4,050)
(4,657)
(5,356)
2,940,15
9
823,245
3,763,40
4
2,733,63
2
765,417
3,499,04
9
2,369,12
6
663,355
3,032,48
1
4,771,259
2,161,110
2,610,149
(811,114)
1,799,035
261,439
(6,159)
2,054,315
575,208
2,629,523
1,286,07
9
3,993,278
3,763,40
4
3,499,04
9
3,032,48
1
1
2,258,04
2
1
2,099,42
9
1
1,819,48
9
2,629,523
771,647
2,395,967
1,577,714
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1,021,0
33
26,042
325,510
1,307,19
4
29,948
522,878
1,307,1
94
34,441
522,878
1,307,1
94
39,607
522,878
1,307,1
94
46,340
522,878
614,735
575,165
575,165
575,165
575,165
575,165
66,130
64,296
101,541
2,219,2
87
465,377
250,626
76,050
73,940
116,772
2,701,94
8
535,184
288,220
87,457
85,031
134,288
2,746,4
54
615,461
331,453
100,575
97,786
154,431
2,797,6
37
707,780
381,171
117,673
114,410
180,684
2,864,3
45
828,103
438,346
137,678
133,860
211,401
2018
Balance Sheet
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and equivalents
Restricted cash and cash equivalent
Short-term investments
Accounts receivable, net of allowance of $11,555 and
$10,771
Deferred income taxes
Income taxes receivable
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Total current assets
Property and equipment, net
Long-term investments and other assets
1,307,194
54,218
522,878
2,942,393
968,880
504,098
14,151
1,111,0
41
3,663,6
74
7,724,1
56
16,274
1,277,69
7
4,213,22
5
9,032,54
7
18,715
1,469,3
52
4,845,2
09
10,026,
644
21,522
1,689,7
54
5,571,9
90
11,169,
854
24,750
1,943,2
18
6,407,7
89
12,506,
551
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1,265,1
39
456,994
2,361,7
16
69,516
108,218
76,509
28,463
2,234,700
7,368,957
14,047,492
2018
1,044,2
59
261,288
1,350,3
19
39,746
61,874
43,744
817,630
940,274
300,481
1,552,86
7
45,708
71,155
50,306
345,553
1,785,7
97
52,564
81,828
57,851
1,081,3
15
397,386
2,053,6
66
60,449
94,103
66,529
536,895
617,429
710,044
816,550
939,033
3,338,1
25
1,416,6
97
3,455,57
5
1,806,50
9
(1,358,50
4)
425,676
159,045
3,973,9
12
2,005,3
29
(1,501,8
58)
489,527
182,902
4,569,9
98
2,233,9
71
(1,670,4
67)
562,956
210,337
5,277,1
25
2,501,3
10
(1,829,4
72)
658,659
241,888
370,153
138,300
1,480,212
525,543
2,715,974
79,943
124,451
87,985
1,079,888
6,093,996
2,809,498
(2,074,003)
770,631
278,171
364,871
19
1
-
Noncontrolling interest
Total stockholders' equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
482,542
554,923
649,260
759,634
19
19
19
19
19
5,802,1
40
(3,465,6
75)
(209,21
8)
18,197
419,602
2,145,4
64
113,521
2,096,0
10
7,724,1
56
6,672,46
1
(3,985,52
6)
7,673,3
30
(4,583,3
55)
8,824,3
30
(5,270,8
58)
10,147,
979
(6,061,4
87)
1,597,31
1
1,505,3
62
1,399,6
20
1,212,9
92
20,927
24,066
27,675
31,827
(75,000.
0)
4,544,4
22
150,132
4,394,2
91
10,026,
644
(100,000
.0)
4,880,7
86
172,651
4,708,1
35
11,169,
854
(125,000
.0)
5,206,3
31
198,549
5,007,7
82
12,506,
551
(50,000.0)
4,255,19
3
130,549
4,124,64
3
9,032,54
7
11,670,176
(6,970,710)
1,051,809
36,601
(150,000.0)
5,637,896
228,331
5,409,564
14,047,492
terminal value/(1+r)^n
1,000.00
00
0.1500
Year
2,007.0000
2,008.0000
Period
1.0000
2.0000
Step 1 - We have forecast payout ratio and income for 5 years. Thus we can calculate
dividends
Assume the cost of capital is 20%.
Net income (earnings) avaiable to common
shareholders
Assuming Dividend Payout 60%
Dividends
Less: Common Stock Issues
3,993,278.089
4
0.6000
2,395,966.853
6
0.0000
PV of Div1
2,413,305.711
3
3,763,404.07
49
0.6000
2,258,042.44
49
0.0000
250,000.000
0
2,508,042.44
49
2,009.0000
3.0000
3,499,048.95
83
0.6000
2,099,429.37
50
0.0000
250,000.000
0
2,349,429.37
50
2,010.0000
4.0000
2,011.0000
5.0000
3,032,481.112
8
0.6000
1,819,488.667
7
0.0000
2,629,523.36
61
0.6000
1,577,714.01
97
0.0000
250,000.0000
2,069,488.667
7
250,000.0000
1,827,714.01
97
Terminal
5.0000
60,451,035.6
482
PV of Div2
1,741,696.14
23
PV of Div3
1,359,623.48
09
PV of Div4
998,017.2973
PV of Div5
734,517.2726
PV of DTerminal
24,293,915.4
322
31,541,075.33
66
31,541.0753