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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Phillips Carbon Apollo Hospitals Black Ltd Enterprise Ltd

Detailed Report

Q2FY13 Results Update

Enhancing investment decisions

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a fivepoint scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals

CRISIL Valuation Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations.

About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgments and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro economy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.

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This Company-commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

YEARS

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd

Short term support from the government
Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 4/5 (Superior fundamentals) 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Chemicals

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December 05, 2012 Fair Value CMP CFV MATRIX

Excellent Fundamentals

Rs 140 Rs 95

Phillips Carbon Black Ltds (PCBLs) Q2FY13 earnings were lower than CRISIL Researchs expectations. Sales volume declined sequentially due to sluggish demand and increase in cheaper imports from China (due to lower coking coal prices), which led to decline in revenues. Profitability continued to be under pressure. As expected, the government has imposed a safeguard duty on carbon black imports from China, which is likely to support the profitability going ahead. Given the sharp slide in coking coal prices, production of carbon black through coal tar remains a key monitorable, as China manufactures carbon black through the coking coal route. We have revised our earnings estimates to factor in the weak performance of Q2FY13. However, given the long-term positive outlook on the end-user tyre industry and considering PCBLs dominant position in the domestic carbon black industry, we maintain the fundamental grade of 4/5, indicating that its fundamentals are superior relative to other listed securities in India. Sluggish demand impacts revenue growth Revenues declined by 6.1% q-o-q (up 3.4% y-o-y) to Rs 5,831 mn. Carbon black volumes declined 7.9% q-o-q and 8.1% y-o-y to 73,954 tonnes. Domestic carbon black volumes (70% to total sales) fell by 11% q-o-q while export volumes remained flat. Realisation increased 2.4% q-o-q and 12.7% y-o-y to Rs 75,750 per tonne due to high raw material prices. Power sales also declined 20% q-o-q to Rs 210 mn as the unit sales declined by 8% to 72.5 mn units and realisation declined to Rs 2.9/unit from Rs 3.3/unit in Q1FY13. Pressure on margin continues EBITDA margin fell to zero from 10% in Q2FY12 and 7.7% in Q1FY13. Margins continued to be under pressure on account of PCBLs inability to pass on high raw material prices due to lower offtake in the domestic market and higher imports of carbon black from China. The company reported a loss of Rs 329 mn against a profit of Rs 66 mn in Q1FY13. Reported EPS was Rs (9.5) compared to Rs 1.9 in the previous quarter. Short term support from the government; profitability to improve in H2FY13 To protect the domestic carbon black manufacturers, the government has imposed a safeguard duty on Chinese imports, applicable between October 5, 2012 and December 31, 2013. For the period October 5, 2012 to October 4, 2013, the duty is 30% and for the remaining three months, it is 25%. This will reduce the cost competitiveness of imported carbon black and help domestic manufacturers. We expect profitability to improve in the next two quarters. We expect the Chinese companies cost of production to go up (which will lower their cost competitiveness) due to the expected increase in coking coal prices. Valuations: Current market price has strong upside Our discounted cash flow-based revised fair value is Rs 140 per share. At the current market price of Rs 95, the valuation grade is 5/5.

Fundamental Grade

5 4 3 2 1

Poor Fundamentals

Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX 5870/19305 NSE/BSE ticker PHILIPCARB / PHILIPCA Face value (Rs per share) 10 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 3,257/60 Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 10,220/188 52-week range (Rs)/(H/L) 121/76 Beta 1.2 Free float (%) 47.7% Avg daily volumes (30-days) 94,669 Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 9.5

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec-11 Promoter Mar-12 FII Jun-12 DII Sep-12 Oth ers 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 9.8% 12.9% 9.0% 11.4% 25.1% 27.3% 29.7% 7.4% 10.7% 31.4% 6.3% 10.1%

KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) Operating income EBITDA Adj Net income Adj EPS-Rs EPS growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY10 12,493 1,708 1,100 38.9 NM 4.0 18.4 40.6 3.7 1.3 5.4 FY11 17,280 2,230 1,116 33.6 (13.7) 3.9 19.4 26.4 4.5 1.0 4.2 FY12 22,405 2,079 810 23.5 (30.1) 4.9 13.5 14.3 4.0 0.5 4.9 FY13E 24,030 1,341 59 1.7 (92.8) 0.3 6.2 0.9 55.5 0.5 7.0 FY14E 25,142 2,438 907 26.3 1,444.9 5.2 14.1 13.4 3.6 0.5 4.0

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns 1-m PCBL NIFTY -9% 3% 3-m 6% 12% 6-m -0.2% 21% 12-m -11% 16%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Mohit Modi (Director) Vinay Chhawchharia Vishal Rampuria Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com mohit.modi@crisil.com vinay.chhawchharia@crisil.com vishal.rampuria@crisil.com

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Q2FY13 Results Summary

(Rs mn) Net sales Raw materials cost Raw materials cost (% of net sales) Employees cost Other expenses EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation EBIT Interest and finance charges Operating PBT Other Income PBT Tax PAT Adj PAT Adj PAT margin No of equity shares (mn) Adj EPS (Rs) Source: Company, CRISIL Research Q2FY13 5,831 5,106 87.6% 187 541 (2) 0 129 (131) 242 (374) 22 (352) (23) (329) (329) -5.6% 34.5 (9.5) Q1FY13 6,210 4,991 80.4% 130 611 477 7.7% 115 362 309 54 28 82 16 66 66 1.1% 34.5 1.9 Q2FY12 5,639 4,307 76.4% 176 590 565 10.0% 121 444 226 218 4 222 14 208 208 3.7% 33.2 6.3 q-o-q (%) (6.1) 2.3 7.2 pps 43.2 (11.5) NM -7.7 pps 12.5 NM (21.5) (796.8) (23.1) NM (242.5) NM NM -6.7 pps NM y-o-y (%) 3.4 18.5 11.0 pps 5.8 (8.4) NM -10.0 pps 6.9 NM 7.3 (271.2) 453.8 NM (265.2) NM NM -9.3 pps NM H1FY13 12,041 10,097 83.9% 317 1,152 475 3.9% 244 231 551 (320) 50 (270) (7) (263) (263) -2.2% 34.5 (7.6) H1FY12 11,314 8,583 75.9% 309 1,122 1,300 11.5% 238 1,062 298 764 9 774 149 624 624 5.5% 33.2 18.8 y-o-y (%) 6.4 17.6 8.0 pps 2.5 2.7 -63.5 -7.5 pps 2.3 -78.3 85.1 NM 446.2 NM -104.6 NM NM -7.7 pps NM

Margin pressure continues

(Rs mn) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 0.0% 10.0% 14.7% 14.3% 13.0% 10.5% 8.6% 16% 14% 12% 10%

Losses ballooned
(Rs mn) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -5.6% 0.9% 300 333 416 208 196 50 66 -329 1.1% 6.9% 7.5% 7.3% 3.7% 3.8% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

5,831

7.7%

8% 6% 4%

4,321

4,442

5,676

5,639

5,149

5,404

1,000 0

6,210

2% 0% -2%

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Net Sales

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

PAT

PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Q2FY13

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd

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Share price movement

120 100

Fair value movement since initiation

(Rs) 350 300 ('000) 1,800 1,600 1,400 250 200 150 100 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 50 0 200 0

80 60 40 20 0

May-11

May-12

Nov-10

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-11

Nov-12

PCBL

NIFTY

Traded Quantity (RHS)

CRISIL Fair Value

-Indexed to 100 Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars Revenues EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT PAT margin Unit (Rs mn) (Rs mn) % (Rs mn) % FY13E Old 22,236 1,995 9.3% 518 2.3% New 24,030 1,341 5.6% 59 0.2% % change 8.1% -32.8% -370 bps -88.7% -209 bps Old 23509 2472 10.5% 963 4.10% FY14E New 25,142 2,438 9.7% 907 3.61% % change 6.95% -1.39% -82 bps -5.83% -49 bps

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item Revenues EBITDA margins FY13 Revised upward to factor in the higher realisation on account of increase in raw material prices Revised downward to factor in the lower-than-expected performance in Q2FY13 due to the sluggish demand and increasing dumping of lowcost carbon black from China (due to lower coking coal prices) PAT margins Lowered in line with the operating margins Lowered in line with the operating margins FY14 Revised upward to factor in the higher realisation as we expect raw material price to remain high To factor in demand slowdown

Nov-12
PCBL

Feb-11

Feb-12

Jan-11

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Mar-11

Jan-12

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Mar-12

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Jul-11

Sep-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

Sep-12

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Valuation

Grade: 5/5
Lower our fair value to Rs 140 per share

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value PCBL. In line with our earnings estimate revision, we lower our fair value to Rs 140 from Rs 160 per share. The implied P/E multiples at this price is 5.3x FY14E EPS. At the current market price, our valuation grade is 5/5.

One-year forward P/E band

(Rs) 350 300 250 200 150

One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

(Rs mn) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

100 50 0

4,000 2,000

Oct-10

Dec-10

Dec-11

May-10

May-11

Nov-12

Jan-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Mar-10

Jul-11

Aug-10

Sep-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Oct-10

Dec-10

Dec-11

May-10

May-11

PCBL

5x

6x

7x

8x

9x

EV

4x

5x

6x

7x

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E premium / discount to NIFTY

500% 400%

P/E movement
(Times) 100 80

300% 60 200% 100% 0% -100% 40 20 0 -20 +1 std dev -1 std dev

Oct-10

Dec-10

Dec-11

May-10

May-11

Dec-10

Dec-11

May-10

May-11

Nov-12

Aug-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Premium/Discount to NIFTY

Median premium/discount to NIFTY

1yr Fwd PE (x)

Median PE

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Nov-12

Jan-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Mar-10

Jul-11

Feb-12

Mar-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Aug-10

Sep-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Apr-12

Nov-12

Jan-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Mar-10

Jul-11

Aug-10

Sep-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd

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CRISIL IER reports released on Phillips Carbon Black Ltd

Fundamental Date 01-Nov-10 25-Feb-11 09-May-11 04-Aug-11 28-Nov-11 07-Feb-12 08-Jun-12 14-Aug-12 05-Dec-12 Nature of report Initiating coverage Q3FY11 result update Q4FY11 result update Q1FY12 result update Q2FY12 result update Detailed Report Q4FY12 result update Q1FY13 result update Q2FY13 result update grade 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 Fair value Rs 286 Rs 290 Rs 290 Rs 260 Rs 240 Rs 212 Rs 187 Rs 160 Rs 140 Valuation grade 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 CMP (on the date of report) Rs 198 Rs 135 Rs 145 Rs 143 Rs 109 Rs 95 Rs 97 Rs 91 Rs 95

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Annexure: Financials
Income statement
(Rs m n) Operating incom e EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation EBIT Interest Operating PBT Other income Exceptional inc/(exp) PBT Tax provision Minority interest PAT (Reported) Less: Exceptionals Adjusted PAT FY10 12,493 1,708 13.7% 311 1,397 233 1,164 15 122 1,301 79 1,222 122 1,100 FY11 17,280 2,230 12.9% 386 1,844 314 1,530 60 (14) 1,576 473 1,103 (14) 1,116 FY12 22,405 2,079 9.3% 493 1,586 676 910 60 42 1,012 160 852 42 810 FY13E 24,030 1,341 5.6% 530 810 845 (34) 108 73 15 59 59 FY14E 25,142 2,438 9.7% 572 1,866 714 1,152 57 1,209 302 907 907

Balance Sheet
(Rs m n) Liabilities Equity share capital Reserves Minorities Net w orth Convertible debt Other debt Total debt Deferred tax liability (net) Total liabilities Assets Net fixed assets Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investments Current assets Inventory Sundry debtors Loans and advances Cash & bank balance Marketable securities Total current assets Total current liabilities Net current assets Intangibles/Misc. expenditure Total assets FY10 283 2,957 3,240 5,544 5,544 96 8,879 5,932 923 6,855 375 1,966 2,950 2,419 330 7,665 6,016 1,650 8,879 FY11 332 4,877 5,209 5,009 5,009 569 10,787 5,783 2,076 7,859 385 2,553 3,625 3,081 657 9,917 7,628 2,289 254 10,787 FY12 345 5,795 6,140 7,108 7,108 729 13,976 7,144 1,326 8,470 384 3,603 5,473 4,004 145 13,226 8,386 4,840 283 13,976 FY13E 345 5,843 197 6,384 6,508 6,508 729 13,621 8,154 214 8,367 384 4,148 5,925 3,124 574 13,771 9,185 4,586 283 13,621 FY14E 345 6,579 197 7,120 6,508 6,508 729 14,357 7,782 1,364 9,145 384 4,133 6,200 3,269 257 13,858 9,314 4,544 283 14,357

Ratios
FY10 Grow th Operating income (%) EBITDA (%) Adj PAT (%) Adj EPS (%) Profitability EBITDA margin (%) Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoIC (%) Valuations Price-earnings (x) Price-book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Dividend payout ratio (%) Dividend yield (%) B/S ratios Inventory days Creditors days Debtor days Working capital days Gross asset turnover (x) Net asset turnover (x) Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Debt-equity (x) Net debt/equity (x) Interest coverage 7.3 NM NM NM FY11 38.3 30.5 1.5 (13.7) FY12 29.7 (6.8) (27.5) (30.1) FY13E 7.3 (35.5) (92.8) (92.8) FY14E 4.6 81.8 1,444.9 1,444.9

13.7 8.8 40.6 18.4 19.2

12.9 6.5 26.4 19.4 17.3

9.3 3.6 14.3 13.5 14.1

5.6 0.2 0.9 6.2 8.2

9.7 3.6 13.4 14.1 13.5

Cash flow
(Rs m n) Pre-tax profit Total tax paid Depreciation Working capital changes Net cash from operations Cash from investm ents Capital expenditure Investments and others Net cash from investm ents Cash from financing Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Others (incl extraordinaries) Net cash from financing Change in cash position Closing cash FY10 1,179 311 (1,436) 54 (1,059) 3 (1,056) 1,296 (165) 130 1,261 259 330 FY11 1,589 386 (312) 1,663 (1,644) (10) (1,654) 977 (535) (193) 70 318 327 657 FY12 970 (0) 493 (3,063) (1,601) (1,132) 1 (1,131) 245 2,099 (160) 36 2,220 (512) 145 FY13E 73 (15) 530 683 1,271 (428) (428) (600) (11) 197 (414) 429 574 FY14E 1,209 (302) 572 (275) 1,204 (1,350) (1,350) (171) (171) (317) 257 257 Q2FY13 5,831 -6% (2) NM 0.0% (329) (329) NM -5.6% (9.5)

3.7 1.3 5.4 0.8 13.5 4.0

4.5 1.0 4.2 0.6 17.5 3.9

4.0 0.5 4.9 0.5 18.8 4.9

55.5 0.5 7.0 0.4 18.8 0.3

3.6 0.5 4.0 0.4 18.8 5.2

73 165 83 18 2.0 3.0 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 6.0

67 150 73 31 2.1 3.0 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 5.9

71 121 86 52 2.4 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.3

67 123 85 66 2.2 3.1 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0

66 125 86 60 2.1 3.2 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 2.6

Quarterly financials
(Rs m n) Net Sales Change (q-o-q) EBITDA Change (q-o-q) EBITDA m argin PAT Adj PAT Change (q-o-q) Adj PAT margin Adj EPS Q2FY12 5,639 -1% 565 -23.2% 10.0% 208 208 -50% 3.7% 6.3 Q3FY12 5,149 -9% 538 -4.7% 10.5% 196 196 -6% 3.8% 5.7 Q4FY12 5,404 5% 467 -13.2% 8.6% 50 50 -74% 0.9% 1.5 Q1FY13 6,210 15% 477 2.0% 7.7% 66 66 30% 1.1% 1.9

Per share
Adj EPS (Rs) CEPS Book value Dividend (Rs) Actual o/s shares (mn) FY10 38.9 50.0 114.7 5.8 28.3 FY11 33.6 45.2 156.8 5.8 33.2 FY12 23.5 37.8 178.1 4.6 34.5 FY13E 1.7 17.1 185.2 0.3 34.5 FY14E 26.3 42.9 206.6 4.9 34.5

Source: CRISIL Research

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