Cross-Tabs: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Aug. 10, 2024

Results of New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin conducted among 1,973 likely voters from Aug. 5 to 9, 2024.

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Almost certain	64%	59%	69%	65%	66%	63%	50%	62%	65%	67%	66%	50%	56%	70%	61%	71%	64%	65%	47%	61%	64%	66%	66%	65%	43%	67%	66%	40%	43%	68%	64%	61%	67%	65%	43%
Very likely	30%	34%	26%	30%	29%	31%	41%	30%	30%	28%	29%	37%	34%	27%	32%	26%	31%	29%	39%	33%	29%	30%	31%	30%	24%	30%	30%	36%	25%	29%	32%	31%	30%	31%	34%
Somewhat likely	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%	6%	3%	3%	2%	2%	8%	5%	1%	4%	<1%	3%	3%	8%	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%	10%	2%	2%	12%	10%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	11%
Not very likely	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	7%	<.5%	<.5%	5%	3%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	4%
Not at all likely	1%	2%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	<1%	1%	1%	3%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	9%	<1%	<1%	3%	15%	1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	7%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	2%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	6%	<.5%	1%	4%	3%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	1%
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

(Combined to include leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	50%	50%	50%	50%	41%	58%	56%	50%	44%	55%	48%	81%	50%	59%	45%	59%	42%	64%	65%	70%	53%	40%	100%	0%	0%	100%	0%	25%	23%	95%	6%	47%	93%	4%	43%
Donald Trump, the Republican	46%	46%	46%	46%	55%	38%	41%	44%	52%	42%	49%	13%	45%	36%	51%	37%	55%	27%	32%	25%	43%	57%	0%	100%	0%	0%	100%	44%	19%	3%	92%	47%	5%	94%	43%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	5%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%	6%	5%	3%	3%	6%	5%	5%	4%	4%	3%	9%	4%	6%	4%	3%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	31%	58%	1%	1%	6%	2%	2%	13%
MARGIN Harris +4 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

(Combined to include leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	48%	48%	46%	49%	39%	56%	52%	48%	42%	53%	46%	78%	45%	56%	43%	57%	40%	58%	61%	67%	51%	38%	96%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	93%	6%	43%	90%	3%	39%
Donald Trump, the Republican	43%	43%	44%	43%	52%	35%	36%	40%	49%	41%	46%	10%	40%	33%	49%	34%	53%	22%	28%	22%	40%	54%	0%	94%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	3%	91%	41%	3%	92%	38%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate	5%	4%	4%	5%	5%	5%	9%	6%	4%	3%	4%	7%	6%	5%	4%	5%	3%	7%	6%	4%	4%	5%	2%	4%	35%	0%	0%	100%	0%	2%	2%	10%	3%	4%	11%
Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	3%	2%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	6%	<.5%	2%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	8%	0%	0%	0%	22%	<1%	<.5%	2%	1%	<.5%	4%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	3%	0%	0%	0%	12%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Another candidate (specify)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	<1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	11%	0%	0%	0%	15%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	4%	3%	4%	2%	2%	<.5%	<1%	42%	0%	0%	0%	49%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	5%
MARGIN Harris +5 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Definitely	84%	81%	87%	85%	83%	86%	73%	80%	85%	90%	86%	74%	76%	85%	84%	86%	86%	79%	73%	84%	82%	86%	85%	85%	34%	88%	88%	35%	28%	92%	89%	74%	86%	88%	64%
Probably	13%	15%	11%	13%	14%	12%	25%	18%	12%	7%	11%	21%	20%	13%	13%	12%	11%	17%	22%	14%	14%	11%	12%	12%	52%	11%	10%	55%	52%	7%	9%	23%	12%	10%	30%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	4%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	5%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	4%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	14%	2%	2%	10%	20%	1%	2%	4%	2%	2%	7%
Number of respondents	1,899	589	666	644	895	972	277	434	597	540	1,489	160	203	865	1,022	706	782	140	221	333	764	802	980	869	50	935	803	117	44	634	550	585	886	717	209
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	34%	47%	51%	12%	20%	34%	31%	81%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	39%	45%	51%	47%	2%	49%	44%	5%	2%	34%	32%	29%	47%	41%	8%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	24%	14%	35%	21%	26%	21%	34%	18%	19%	34%	24%	30%	31%	21%	26%	19%	27%	27%	34%	25%	27%	20%	100%	0%	0%	-	-	25%	23%	53%	15%	24%	45%	16%	20%
Donald Trump, the Republican	32%	34%	25%	37%	33%	30%	41%	37%	29%	22%	34%	21%	32%	32%	30%	36%	32%	25%	30%	25%	26%	40%	0%	100%	0%	-	-	44%	19%	11%	38%	37%	24%	48%	23%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	45%	52%	40%	42%	41%	48%	25%	44%	52%	44%	43%	49%	36%	46%	44%	45%	41%	47%	36%	50%	46%	40%	0%	0%	100%	-	-	31%	58%	36%	46%	39%	31%	35%	57%
Number of respondents	235	81	85	69	116	113	41	72	75	43	151	29	39	111	123	72	79	32	36	50	93	92	53	76	106			117	118	33	25	117	67	44	71
Percentage of total electorate	100%	34%	37%	30%	49%	49%	15%	29%	34%	21%	66%	10%	15%	44%	56%	29%	38%	13%	13%	20%	40%	40%	24%	32%	45%			50%	50%	15%	11%	49%	32%	23%	22%

(Combined Senate results) If this year’s general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
... the Democrat	49%	46%	51%	51%	40%	57%	51%	50%	46%	53%	47%	80%	53%	59%	44%	58%	40%	68%	64%	71%	53%	38%	90%	6%	35%	90%	5%	46%	42%	93%	6%	47%	89%	7%	44%
... the Republican	41%	43%	37%	44%	50%	33%	35%	37%	46%	41%	45%	10%	31%	33%	46%	34%	52%	20%	22%	18%	38%	53%	4%	84%	15%	4%	86%	33%	18%	3%	85%	42%	5%	84%	35%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	9%	11%	11%	5%	9%	9%	14%	12%	9%	6%	8%	10%	16%	9%	9%	7%	8%	12%	14%	10%	9%	9%	5%	10%	49%	5%	9%	21%	40%	5%	8%	11%	6%	9%	21%
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

(Ask only in WI) If this year’s general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat	51%	-	-	51%	40%	60%	65%	51%	45%	54%	49%	85%	62%	59%	47%	60%	42%	52%	77%	71%	52%	42%	94%	4%	46%	94%	2%	40%	56%	95%	2%	49%	91%	6%	50%
Eric Hovde [huv-dee], the Republican	44%	-	-	44%	56%	34%	29%	42%	48%	44%	46%	15%	31%	35%	49%	34%	53%	36%	22%	25%	43%	52%	3%	90%	23%	3%	92%	44%	17%	3%	93%	43%	5%	89%	26%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	-	-	5%	5%	6%	6%	7%	6%	2%	5%	0%	7%	6%	4%	6%	5%	13%	1%	4%	5%	6%	3%	6%	31%	2%	6%	16%	27%	2%	5%	7%	3%	4%	24%
MARGIN Baldwin +7 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	661			661	311	340	83	142	195	220	568	30	50	301	356	268	300	26	53	150	168	343	347	284	30	334	258	41	28	212	160	241	316	247	54
Percentage of total electorate	100%			100%	48%	51%	10%	18%	34%	34%	87%	4%	7%	36%	63%	32%	55%	3%	8%	21%	24%	55%	50%	46%	3%	49%	43%	5%	3%	32%	27%	34%	47%	41%	6%

(Ask only in PA) If this year’s general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Bob Casey, the Democrat	51%	-	51%	-	46%	55%	52%	52%	48%	54%	48%	78%	53%	61%	46%	60%	41%	76%	60%	69%	58%	35%	92%	9%	34%	93%	7%	64%	41%	94%	10%	53%	91%	9%	47%
David McCormick, the Republican	37%	-	37%	-	40%	35%	36%	30%	41%	38%	42%	8%	29%	30%	42%	31%	49%	18%	20%	15%	33%	53%	3%	77%	13%	3%	78%	22%	19%	1%	77%	32%	3%	76%	31%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	11%	-	11%	-	14%	9%	12%	18%	11%	8%	10%	13%	19%	9%	12%	9%	10%	6%	20%	16%	9%	13%	5%	15%	53%	5%	15%	14%	40%	4%	13%	15%	6%	15%	22%
MARGIN Casey +14 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	693		693		320	361	103	161	222	187	512	71	91	324	364	244	267	70	91	126	330	237	351	308	34	322	286	36	49	246	233	167	324	262	76
Percentage of total electorate	100%		100%		47%	51%	11%	21%	33%	32%	77%	10%	10%	38%	61%	30%	47%	7%	13%	17%	47%	36%	50%	46%	4%	46%	44%	4%	6%	35%	37%	22%	46%	42%	7%

(Ask only in MI) If this year’s general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Elissa [uh-LISS-uh] Slotkin [SLOT-kin], the Democrat	46%	46%	-	-	35%	57%	41%	48%	43%	51%	43%	80%	46%	56%	41%	54%	37%	67%	60%	74%	49%	35%	84%	7%	30%	84%	5%	35%	34%	90%	6%	39%	84%	6%	40%
Mike Rogers, the Republican	43%	43%	-	-	54%	32%	39%	40%	48%	40%	49%	9%	34%	34%	47%	39%	54%	17%	25%	12%	40%	55%	7%	85%	12%	7%	88%	31%	16%	3%	89%	48%	7%	87%	41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	11%	11%	-	-	10%	12%	20%	11%	9%	10%	8%	10%	20%	10%	11%	7%	9%	16%	15%	14%	11%	10%	9%	8%	59%	9%	7%	34%	50%	7%	5%	13%	9%	8%	19%
MARGIN Slotkin +3 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	619	619			303	306	96	155	202	152	452	69	73	272	344	211	241	55	87	76	295	248	290	287	42	279	259	40	41	188	163	203	262	217	105
Percentage of total electorate	100%	100%			47%	51%	13%	22%	34%	28%	76%	10%	10%	35%	64%	26%	50%	8%	12%	11%	47%	42%	50%	46%	5%	48%	43%	4%	5%	34%	29%	29%	45%	38%	12%

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
18-29	11%	13%	11%	10%	12%	11%	100%	0%	0%	0%	10%	13%	24%	12%	11%	11%	9%	15%	21%	14%	13%	9%	13%	10%	8%	12%	10%	23%	7%	11%	9%	12%	11%	7%	37%
30-44	21%	22%	21%	18%	21%	20%	0%	100%	0%	0%	18%	28%	39%	27%	17%	25%	14%	41%	30%	26%	23%	16%	21%	20%	28%	21%	19%	27%	30%	21%	17%	22%	21%	18%	27%
45-64	34%	34%	33%	34%	34%	34%	0%	0%	100%	0%	34%	33%	26%	33%	34%	33%	35%	33%	28%	30%	34%	35%	29%	38%	40%	29%	38%	31%	37%	31%	36%	35%	31%	39%	23%
65+	31%	28%	32%	34%	31%	32%	0%	0%	0%	100%	35%	24%	9%	25%	35%	29%	39%	8%	19%	29%	27%	36%	35%	29%	20%	35%	30%	19%	23%	34%	34%	28%	35%	33%	12%
Refused	3%	2%	3%	4%	2%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	0%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Grade school	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	<.5%	5%	2%	6%	<.5%	0%	4%	0%	3%	0%	4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	3%	2%	1%	4%	<.5%	3%	1%	4%	1%	1%	4%	2%
High school	29%	27%	32%	29%	30%	29%	30%	20%	28%	36%	29%	37%	23%	0%	46%	0%	46%	0%	46%	30%	22%	35%	27%	32%	23%	27%	33%	19%	22%	28%	35%	25%	25%	32%	40%
Vocational or trade school	6%	5%	6%	7%	7%	5%	5%	5%	8%	5%	6%	7%	8%	0%	9%	0%	9%	0%	12%	6%	6%	6%	4%	8%	6%	4%	8%	10%	5%	5%	7%	6%	5%	8%	5%
Some college, no degree	15%	16%	13%	15%	15%	14%	17%	13%	14%	16%	15%	13%	14%	0%	23%	0%	24%	0%	21%	15%	14%	15%	15%	15%	11%	15%	14%	19%	11%	14%	14%	16%	14%	14%	20%
Associate’s degree	11%	13%	9%	10%	10%	12%	9%	12%	12%	9%	11%	10%	11%	0%	17%	0%	18%	0%	17%	10%	10%	12%	10%	12%	13%	10%	12%	9%	13%	8%	12%	12%	9%	13%	10%
Bachelor's degree	22%	21%	22%	23%	22%	22%	29%	31%	21%	16%	23%	12%	26%	61%	0%	62%	0%	57%	0%	19%	29%	18%	24%	20%	29%	24%	19%	28%	29%	22%	19%	25%	26%	19%	16%
Graduate or professional degree	14%	14%	16%	12%	12%	16%	9%	16%	15%	14%	14%	14%	16%	39%	0%	38%	0%	43%	0%	18%	16%	11%	19%	9%	16%	19%	8%	13%	17%	20%	8%	14%	20%	9%	6%
[VOL] Refused	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	0%	<.5%	2%	1%	0%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

Would you consider yourself:
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
White	79%	75%	77%	86%	79%	80%	70%	69%	81%	89%	99%	0%	0%	80%	80%	99%	99%	0%	0%	59%	76%	90%	77%	84%	61%	77%	85%	66%	61%	74%	89%	80%	77%	88%	63%
Hispanic or Latino	3%	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	8%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	37%	2%	4%	0%	0%	15%	22%	6%	4%	2%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%	7%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	2%	10%
Black or African American	8%	10%	10%	4%	7%	9%	9%	11%	8%	6%	0%	100%	0%	6%	9%	0%	0%	34%	52%	21%	9%	2%	12%	2%	11%	12%	2%	12%	9%	16%	1%	6%	13%	<1%	9%
Asian	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	4%	3%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	17%	3%	<1%	0%	0%	20%	4%	3%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	2%	1%	<.5%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	3%	<1%	2%
American Indian or Alaska Native	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	8%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	4%	4%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	1%	3%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%
Middle Eastern or North African	<1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	9%	1%	<.5%	0%	0%	9%	2%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	4%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	3%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	3%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<.5%	12%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	9%	6%	4%	2%	2%	1%	3%	6%	1%	3%	4%	5%	1%	2%	3%	<1%	2%	6%
[VOL] More than one race	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	3%	3%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	15%	1%	2%	0%	0%	6%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	<.5%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	3%
[VOL] Refused	3%	4%	2%	2%	4%	1%	2%	2%	3%	2%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	13%	1%	3%	5%	10%	1%	2%	3%	<1%	3%	4%
Number of respondents	1,973	619	693	661	934	1,007	282	458	619	559	1,532	170	214	897	1,064	723	808	151	231	352	793	828	988	879	106	935	803	117	118	646	556	611	902	726	235
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	21%	34%	31%	80%	8%	9%	36%	63%	30%	50%	6%	11%	16%	39%	44%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	5%	34%	31%	29%	46%	40%	8%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Democrat	34%	35%	35%	33%	25%	43%	36%	35%	31%	38%	32%	66%	36%	40%	31%	37%	28%	54%	47%	51%	37%	26%	65%	3%	16%	67%	2%	13%	18%	100%	0%	0%	66%	3%	23%
Republican	32%	29%	39%	27%	36%	28%	24%	29%	32%	34%	35%	5%	21%	23%	36%	26%	41%	10%	15%	13%	30%	39%	4%	63%	12%	4%	66%	9%	10%	0%	100%	0%	4%	66%	21%
Independent	30%	31%	23%	36%	35%	25%	31%	31%	33%	25%	29%	25%	34%	31%	29%	31%	28%	28%	31%	31%	28%	31%	27%	31%	51%	26%	28%	67%	44%	0%	0%	100%	26%	28%	48%
Another party	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	1%	5%	3%	3%	<.5%	2%	1%	5%	3%	1%	3%	1%	5%	3%	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	11%	1%	2%	9%	11%	0%	0%	0%	2%	1%	6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	1%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	4%	3%	2%	2%	2%	4%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	10%	2%	1%	1%	16%	0%	0%	0%	3%	2%	2%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	42%	40%	46%	40%	36%	48%	54%	44%	32%	50%	42%	51%	40%	49%	37%	50%	36%	42%	45%	52%	42%	38%	85%	4%	19%	86%	2%	27%	32%	-	-	41%	81%	4%	30%
The Republican Party	43%	42%	36%	48%	48%	37%	29%	40%	51%	39%	46%	23%	33%	36%	47%	37%	52%	26%	31%	30%	41%	49%	5%	84%	14%	5%	87%	41%	21%	-	-	45%	10%	80%	38%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	16%	18%	18%	11%	16%	15%	17%	16%	17%	11%	12%	26%	27%	15%	15%	12%	12%	32%	24%	18%	17%	14%	10%	12%	67%	9%	11%	32%	46%	-	-	14%	9%	16%	32%
Number of respondents	623	207	179	237	344	262	95	150	197	165	477	47	78	304	315	244	233	50	75	113	237	273	291	278	54	265	225	72	61			526	266	208	105
Percentage of total electorate	100%	35%	25%	40%	54%	43%	13%	22%	36%	26%	79%	6%	11%	40%	59%	32%	47%	6%	11%	17%	38%	46%	45%	47%	9%	41%	40%	11%	9%			87%	42%	37%	13%

Combined: Party identification and leaners
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	49%	50%	47%	49%	39%	57%	58%	51%	43%	52%	45%	81%	53%	58%	43%	56%	39%	69%	64%	70%	51%	39%	91%	4%	30%	92%	3%	34%	41%	100%	0%	41%	90%	5%	40%
The Republican Party	46%	44%	48%	46%	55%	39%	35%	43%	51%	45%	51%	11%	35%	37%	52%	40%	57%	19%	27%	24%	44%	56%	6%	92%	22%	6%	94%	41%	26%	0%	100%	45%	7%	91%	42%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	7%	5%	5%	6%	4%	7%	6%	6%	3%	4%	8%	12%	6%	5%	4%	4%	12%	9%	6%	6%	5%	3%	4%	49%	3%	4%	25%	33%	0%	0%	14%	3%	5%	18%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	41%	39%	43%	41%	48%	35%	21%	36%	50%	41%	46%	6%	27%	31%	47%	33%	53%	17%	17%	19%	36%	54%	3%	84%	26%	3%	87%	31%	16%	4%	86%	39%	0%	100%	0%
Joe Biden	47%	45%	48%	49%	39%	55%	46%	49%	41%	54%	45%	84%	47%	59%	41%	58%	37%	68%	62%	66%	51%	38%	88%	5%	26%	89%	4%	38%	32%	90%	6%	42%	100%	0%	0%
I did not vote	8%	12%	7%	5%	9%	6%	28%	12%	5%	2%	7%	9%	21%	5%	10%	4%	8%	9%	19%	10%	10%	6%	7%	8%	26%	6%	7%	18%	26%	5%	5%	13%	0%	0%	100%
[VOL] Someone else	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	3%	1%	2%	0%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	<.5%	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	15%	1%	<1%	9%	18%	<.5%	2%	4%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	0%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	8%	<.5%	<1%	3%	8%	0%	<.5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	45%	45%	46%	44%	53%	38%	30%	41%	53%	42%	49%	7%	34%	33%	52%	35%	57%	19%	22%	22%	40%	57%	4%	91%	35%	3%	94%	38%	22%	4%	91%	45%	0%	100%	-
Joe Biden	52%	52%	51%	52%	43%	59%	64%	56%	44%	55%	48%	93%	60%	63%	45%	61%	40%	75%	77%	74%	57%	40%	94%	6%	35%	95%	4%	47%	42%	96%	6%	48%	100%	0%	-
[VOL] Someone else	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	6%	2%	3%	1%	2%	0%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%	5%	<.5%	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	20%	2%	<1%	11%	25%	<.5%	2%	5%	0%	0%	-
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	0%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	11%	<.5%	<1%	4%	11%	0%	<.5%	3%	0%	0%	-
Number of respondents	1,483	419	544	520	677	782	158	327	490	468	1,211	107	136	739	735	611	599	116	126	239	590	654	782	655	46	751	607	70	55	518	447	442	794	634
Percentage of total electorate	100%	32%	34%	34%	46%	52%	9%	20%	35%	34%	82%	8%	8%	38%	61%	31%	51%	6%	9%	15%	39%	46%	51%	46%	3%	49%	44%	4%	3%	35%	32%	28%	52%	45%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly approve	26%	26%	25%	26%	19%	32%	11%	18%	24%	37%	26%	41%	18%	29%	23%	30%	23%	29%	28%	37%	24%	23%	50%	<1%	8%	51%	<1%	3%	11%	58%	1%	15%	49%	2%	13%
Somewhat approve	18%	17%	19%	20%	17%	19%	24%	27%	15%	15%	17%	25%	25%	23%	16%	22%	14%	28%	24%	26%	20%	15%	34%	2%	12%	34%	1%	14%	18%	30%	5%	20%	32%	2%	21%
Somewhat disapprove	9%	11%	8%	8%	9%	8%	22%	12%	6%	6%	8%	10%	16%	10%	8%	9%	7%	14%	13%	7%	11%	7%	10%	7%	19%	9%	6%	29%	12%	6%	7%	13%	9%	6%	18%
Strongly disapprove	45%	44%	46%	44%	52%	38%	39%	41%	53%	40%	47%	20%	37%	35%	50%	37%	53%	27%	30%	27%	42%	54%	4%	89%	49%	3%	91%	52%	47%	4%	85%	50%	6%	89%	44%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	5%	2%	3%	2%	3%	1%	12%	2%	1%	2%	13%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	5%
NET Approve	44%	43%	44%	46%	36%	52%	35%	44%	39%	53%	43%	66%	43%	53%	39%	52%	37%	57%	52%	63%	44%	37%	84%	3%	19%	86%	2%	17%	29%	88%	7%	36%	82%	4%	34%
NET Disapprove	54%	55%	54%	52%	61%	46%	62%	54%	59%	45%	55%	30%	53%	45%	58%	45%	61%	40%	44%	34%	53%	61%	13%	96%	68%	12%	96%	81%	59%	10%	92%	62%	16%	94%	61%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.
Donald Trump
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	33%	31%	35%	34%	38%	29%	25%	29%	36%	34%	36%	5%	31%	21%	40%	22%	44%	17%	20%	18%	29%	42%	<1%	71%	7%	<1%	75%	4%	4%	3%	75%	25%	2%	73%	17%
Somewhat favorable	13%	13%	13%	12%	17%	9%	14%	16%	15%	9%	13%	14%	13%	14%	12%	14%	12%	16%	12%	6%	14%	15%	2%	24%	17%	2%	22%	31%	20%	2%	16%	21%	4%	20%	25%
Somewhat unfavorable	4%	6%	4%	3%	4%	4%	12%	5%	4%	2%	4%	9%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	3%	9%	5%	5%	3%	4%	3%	27%	3%	1%	28%	23%	3%	3%	7%	4%	2%	11%
Very unfavorable	49%	48%	47%	51%	39%	57%	48%	50%	44%	54%	47%	71%	50%	59%	43%	59%	40%	64%	57%	69%	51%	40%	93%	1%	44%	93%	<1%	35%	46%	91%	6%	46%	90%	3%	43%
[VOL] Have not heard of	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	1%	2%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	0%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	6%	<.5%	1%	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	4%
NET Favorable	46%	44%	48%	46%	55%	38%	40%	45%	51%	43%	48%	19%	44%	36%	52%	36%	55%	32%	33%	25%	42%	57%	3%	95%	24%	3%	97%	35%	25%	5%	91%	46%	6%	93%	42%
NET Unfavorable	53%	54%	51%	53%	44%	61%	60%	54%	48%	56%	51%	80%	56%	63%	47%	63%	43%	67%	66%	75%	56%	43%	97%	4%	71%	97%	2%	63%	69%	94%	8%	53%	93%	6%	53%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	33%	33%	32%	33%	22%	43%	25%	28%	29%	44%	32%	53%	30%	36%	31%	36%	30%	42%	40%	46%	32%	29%	65%	<1%	3%	67%	1%	3%	5%	74%	3%	21%	64%	2%	20%
Somewhat favorable	17%	16%	19%	17%	20%	15%	30%	23%	15%	11%	16%	24%	25%	22%	15%	22%	13%	22%	26%	23%	21%	12%	31%	2%	20%	30%	1%	19%	30%	21%	6%	24%	28%	3%	25%
Somewhat unfavorable	7%	7%	7%	8%	8%	6%	12%	11%	8%	3%	7%	8%	9%	9%	6%	9%	6%	9%	9%	7%	7%	7%	3%	10%	24%	2%	9%	34%	18%	2%	9%	10%	4%	9%	13%
Very unfavorable	40%	40%	41%	40%	48%	34%	32%	37%	45%	39%	43%	13%	32%	32%	45%	33%	49%	24%	23%	19%	37%	51%	<.5%	84%	40%	<.5%	86%	40%	32%	3%	80%	43%	4%	84%	34%
[VOL] Have not heard of	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	0%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	4%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	3%	11%	<.5%	2%	4%	14%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	7%
NET Favorable	50%	49%	50%	50%	42%	58%	54%	51%	44%	56%	48%	77%	54%	58%	46%	57%	43%	64%	65%	69%	53%	41%	96%	3%	23%	97%	2%	22%	35%	95%	9%	44%	91%	5%	45%
NET Unfavorable	48%	47%	48%	48%	56%	40%	44%	48%	53%	42%	50%	21%	41%	41%	51%	42%	55%	33%	31%	27%	44%	58%	3%	94%	65%	2%	95%	74%	50%	4%	90%	53%	7%	93%	47%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

JD Vance
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	20%	16%	21%	23%	23%	18%	8%	12%	21%	25%	22%	3%	13%	13%	24%	14%	26%	7%	9%	7%	19%	26%	<1%	42%	5%	<1%	45%	1%	6%	2%	46%	15%	1%	45%	7%
Somewhat favorable	18%	22%	18%	15%	23%	14%	19%	21%	24%	11%	19%	11%	19%	17%	19%	16%	21%	19%	13%	12%	18%	21%	5%	33%	7%	5%	33%	25%	11%	6%	28%	22%	6%	32%	20%
Somewhat unfavorable	9%	11%	9%	8%	9%	10%	15%	14%	8%	6%	9%	13%	12%	13%	7%	13%	6%	12%	13%	9%	11%	8%	13%	4%	26%	12%	3%	28%	14%	8%	5%	14%	11%	4%	20%
Very unfavorable	38%	33%	40%	40%	32%	43%	37%	37%	32%	44%	37%	52%	32%	47%	32%	47%	32%	50%	36%	54%	39%	30%	71%	3%	18%	73%	2%	19%	25%	72%	5%	33%	71%	3%	26%
[VOL] Have not heard of	6%	6%	5%	6%	6%	6%	7%	9%	6%	3%	5%	10%	12%	4%	7%	3%	6%	6%	15%	8%	6%	5%	4%	7%	18%	3%	6%	14%	24%	4%	4%	8%	4%	6%	13%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	9%	11%	8%	8%	8%	9%	14%	7%	8%	10%	8%	10%	11%	6%	11%	5%	9%	5%	14%	10%	7%	10%	6%	11%	25%	6%	11%	13%	21%	7%	11%	8%	7%	10%	13%
NET Favorable	38%	38%	38%	38%	46%	32%	27%	33%	45%	37%	41%	14%	32%	30%	43%	31%	47%	27%	23%	19%	37%	46%	6%	75%	13%	6%	78%	26%	17%	8%	74%	37%	7%	77%	27%
NET Unfavorable	47%	44%	49%	48%	40%	53%	52%	51%	40%	50%	46%	65%	44%	60%	39%	60%	38%	62%	49%	63%	50%	38%	84%	7%	44%	85%	5%	47%	38%	81%	10%	47%	82%	7%	46%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(Asked starting Aug. 6) Tim Walz [walls]
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	22%	21%	20%	26%	18%	25%	19%	21%	20%	24%	23%	26%	11%	29%	17%	30%	18%	28%	13%	29%	22%	18%	42%	2%	4%	43%	2%	6%	3%	47%	<1%	16%	43%	2%	7%
Somewhat favorable	17%	17%	19%	14%	17%	17%	30%	17%	13%	18%	17%	15%	22%	21%	15%	20%	15%	27%	13%	15%	19%	16%	27%	8%	6%	27%	7%	13%	14%	20%	11%	23%	26%	8%	17%
Somewhat unfavorable	8%	7%	9%	6%	9%	7%	9%	11%	9%	4%	7%	11%	10%	8%	8%	8%	7%	9%	12%	9%	8%	8%	3%	13%	8%	3%	12%	22%	3%	2%	14%	8%	3%	13%	10%
Very unfavorable	20%	16%	19%	29%	23%	18%	7%	13%	26%	21%	21%	11%	14%	16%	22%	17%	25%	12%	13%	14%	18%	25%	2%	40%	16%	2%	42%	9%	18%	3%	38%	21%	3%	42%	9%
[VOL] Have not heard of	17%	20%	17%	12%	17%	18%	15%	23%	17%	15%	17%	16%	21%	12%	20%	13%	20%	12%	23%	18%	17%	17%	13%	20%	37%	12%	20%	24%	44%	15%	20%	15%	12%	20%	27%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	16%	19%	16%	13%	16%	16%	20%	15%	15%	18%	14%	20%	21%	13%	18%	12%	16%	13%	25%	14%	17%	16%	14%	18%	30%	14%	18%	25%	18%	13%	17%	17%	14%	16%	29%
NET Favorable	39%	37%	39%	40%	35%	41%	49%	38%	33%	42%	40%	42%	33%	50%	31%	50%	33%	55%	27%	44%	41%	34%	68%	9%	10%	70%	9%	19%	17%	67%	11%	40%	68%	10%	25%
NET Unfavorable	28%	23%	28%	35%	32%	25%	16%	24%	35%	25%	29%	23%	24%	24%	30%	25%	31%	20%	25%	23%	26%	32%	5%	53%	24%	5%	54%	32%	21%	5%	52%	29%	6%	54%	20%
Number of respondents	1,204	345	600	259	562	619	176	282	402	314	941	103	136	592	606	476	464	103	135	196	523	485	616	535	53	584	488	65	67	407	366	361	567	467	133
Percentage of total electorate	100%	32%	47%	21%	47%	52%	11%	21%	36%	29%	80%	9%	9%	39%	61%	31%	49%	6%	11%	15%	42%	42%	50%	46%	4%	47%	43%	4%	5%	34%	33%	29%	47%	42%	9%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
A lot	67%	63%	67%	71%	67%	67%	51%	56%	68%	78%	70%	53%	48%	72%	64%	73%	68%	64%	44%	62%	67%	69%	70%	67%	32%	71%	68%	37%	42%	71%	70%	61%	72%	70%	35%
Some	24%	27%	24%	20%	24%	24%	35%	31%	24%	16%	23%	29%	33%	21%	26%	21%	24%	24%	34%	26%	24%	23%	25%	23%	23%	24%	22%	38%	20%	22%	21%	28%	22%	22%	42%
Not much	6%	6%	7%	6%	7%	6%	9%	9%	6%	4%	5%	12%	13%	5%	7%	4%	6%	9%	14%	9%	6%	6%	4%	7%	29%	3%	7%	21%	23%	4%	6%	10%	4%	6%	15%
None at all	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	5%	4%	2%	2%	2%	5%	6%	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	8%	4%	3%	2%	2%	3%	15%	1%	3%	4%	16%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	8%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very enthusiastic	62%	58%	62%	65%	60%	63%	39%	51%	66%	70%	65%	49%	46%	62%	62%	63%	66%	58%	42%	55%	61%	65%	64%	63%	18%	66%	66%	14%	14%	72%	69%	46%	64%	68%	35%
Somewhat enthusiastic	23%	25%	22%	22%	24%	23%	37%	30%	18%	20%	21%	25%	37%	23%	23%	22%	21%	26%	35%	27%	24%	21%	26%	21%	18%	25%	21%	28%	19%	20%	19%	30%	25%	19%	33%
Not very enthusiastic	9%	9%	11%	8%	10%	9%	20%	9%	9%	6%	9%	15%	8%	10%	9%	10%	8%	11%	11%	11%	9%	9%	8%	9%	30%	6%	8%	32%	34%	5%	8%	14%	8%	8%	18%
Not at all enthusiastic	6%	7%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	9%	6%	3%	4%	9%	7%	5%	5%	5%	4%	4%	10%	6%	6%	5%	3%	6%	32%	2%	5%	25%	30%	3%	4%	9%	3%	5%	14%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%
NET Enthusiastic	85%	83%	84%	87%	84%	86%	76%	81%	84%	91%	86%	74%	83%	85%	85%	85%	87%	83%	77%	83%	85%	85%	89%	84%	36%	91%	87%	42%	34%	92%	88%	76%	89%	86%	68%
NET Not enthusiastic	15%	16%	15%	13%	16%	14%	24%	18%	15%	9%	13%	24%	15%	15%	14%	15%	12%	16%	21%	17%	15%	14%	10%	16%	62%	8%	13%	57%	64%	8%	12%	23%	11%	13%	32%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very satisfied	44%	42%	44%	46%	39%	49%	26%	35%	45%	54%	46%	40%	34%	40%	46%	40%	49%	41%	35%	42%	40%	49%	45%	47%	4%	47%	50%	2%	6%	54%	53%	27%	44%	50%	23%
Somewhat satisfied	33%	32%	36%	30%	34%	31%	42%	35%	31%	30%	32%	35%	37%	32%	33%	32%	32%	31%	38%	37%	33%	30%	37%	29%	18%	38%	30%	24%	12%	35%	26%	38%	38%	29%	30%
Not too satisfied	13%	14%	12%	13%	16%	10%	17%	18%	14%	9%	13%	14%	15%	16%	12%	17%	11%	9%	18%	9%	17%	12%	12%	14%	9%	11%	13%	30%	24%	7%	12%	19%	11%	12%	25%
Not at all satisfied	8%	7%	7%	9%	8%	8%	12%	10%	9%	5%	8%	9%	10%	10%	7%	10%	7%	15%	6%	7%	8%	8%	4%	8%	55%	3%	6%	41%	48%	3%	6%	14%	5%	7%	18%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	4%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	5%	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%	3%	5%	2%	1%	1%	2%	14%	1%	2%	4%	10%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	4%
NET Satisfied	77%	74%	79%	76%	74%	80%	68%	70%	76%	84%	78%	75%	71%	72%	79%	72%	81%	72%	73%	79%	73%	79%	82%	76%	22%	85%	79%	25%	18%	89%	79%	65%	82%	79%	53%
NET Not satisfied	21%	22%	20%	22%	25%	18%	29%	29%	22%	13%	21%	23%	25%	26%	18%	27%	17%	24%	24%	16%	25%	20%	17%	23%	64%	14%	19%	71%	72%	9%	19%	33%	16%	19%	43%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Which comes closest to how you feel about the Republican candidate for vice president, JD Vance?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Enthusiastic	20%	18%	20%	23%	23%	17%	8%	13%	21%	26%	22%	5%	10%	15%	23%	17%	26%	7%	8%	9%	18%	26%	<1%	43%	4%	<1%	45%	5%	4%	1%	45%	17%	2%	45%	7%
Satisfied, but not enthusiastic	24%	25%	24%	23%	29%	21%	24%	25%	29%	19%	24%	24%	23%	20%	27%	19%	27%	20%	26%	20%	24%	26%	9%	41%	24%	9%	41%	31%	20%	10%	37%	27%	9%	39%	36%
Dissatisfied, but not upset	27%	29%	26%	27%	26%	28%	38%	32%	23%	28%	25%	46%	33%	31%	26%	29%	23%	39%	39%	32%	29%	24%	44%	7%	45%	44%	6%	46%	36%	40%	9%	32%	43%	9%	35%
Angry	22%	19%	23%	23%	16%	27%	26%	25%	18%	23%	23%	22%	18%	31%	17%	32%	17%	26%	16%	31%	23%	17%	42%	1%	7%	43%	<1%	9%	12%	42%	3%	18%	42%	1%	12%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	8%	6%	5%	6%	6%	4%	6%	9%	5%	5%	4%	16%	4%	8%	3%	7%	7%	11%	8%	6%	6%	4%	8%	20%	4%	7%	9%	28%	6%	5%	7%	5%	6%	11%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(Asked starting Aug. 6) Which comes closest to how you feel about the Democratic candidate for vice president, Tim Walz [walls]?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Enthusiastic	23%	21%	24%	26%	18%	28%	20%	22%	19%	31%	24%	31%	16%	32%	18%	33%	18%	33%	18%	35%	24%	18%	46%	<1%	0%	48%	<1%	0%	3%	52%	2%	14%	47%	1%	9%
Satisfied, but not enthusiastic	26%	28%	26%	24%	25%	27%	38%	28%	23%	25%	25%	35%	30%	26%	27%	26%	25%	29%	34%	30%	26%	25%	41%	11%	20%	41%	11%	23%	28%	35%	13%	31%	38%	12%	37%
Dissatisfied, but not upset	24%	24%	25%	22%	26%	23%	26%	23%	27%	19%	25%	19%	19%	18%	28%	20%	28%	8%	25%	18%	22%	29%	6%	42%	39%	5%	43%	44%	24%	5%	42%	27%	6%	45%	18%
Angry	12%	10%	12%	18%	16%	9%	6%	9%	14%	15%	13%	3%	11%	11%	14%	10%	16%	14%	4%	4%	13%	15%	<.5%	26%	5%	0%	27%	9%	6%	0%	27%	11%	<.5%	27%	9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	14%	18%	13%	10%	15%	13%	10%	18%	17%	10%	12%	12%	24%	13%	14%	12%	13%	16%	19%	13%	15%	13%	7%	19%	36%	7%	18%	25%	38%	7%	16%	16%	9%	15%	27%
Number of respondents	1,204	345	600	259	562	619	176	282	402	314	941	103	136	592	606	476	464	103	135	196	523	485	616	535	53	584	488	65	67	407	366	361	567	467	133
Percentage of total electorate	100%	32%	47%	21%	47%	52%	11%	21%	36%	29%	80%	9%	9%	39%	61%	31%	49%	6%	11%	15%	42%	42%	50%	46%	4%	47%	43%	4%	5%	34%	33%	29%	47%	42%	9%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Too conservative	34%	32%	37%	33%	29%	38%	56%	42%	30%	27%	34%	44%	34%	44%	29%	45%	28%	46%	35%	51%	36%	27%	58%	9%	26%	58%	7%	31%	34%	60%	10%	30%	56%	9%	34%
Not conservative enough	10%	12%	9%	10%	11%	10%	5%	7%	10%	14%	9%	18%	14%	7%	12%	7%	10%	6%	22%	10%	10%	11%	10%	11%	12%	10%	11%	8%	14%	8%	10%	12%	9%	11%	13%
Not too far either way	46%	45%	46%	47%	52%	42%	37%	47%	52%	42%	48%	29%	44%	40%	50%	40%	52%	39%	37%	32%	43%	54%	18%	77%	51%	18%	78%	54%	38%	19%	75%	49%	21%	76%	46%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	9%	11%	7%	10%	8%	10%	2%	4%	8%	16%	9%	9%	7%	9%	9%	8%	10%	10%	7%	8%	11%	8%	14%	4%	12%	14%	4%	7%	15%	12%	4%	10%	14%	4%	7%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Too liberal or progressive	44%	40%	46%	47%	53%	38%	33%	39%	51%	45%	49%	13%	30%	38%	48%	41%	53%	25%	21%	24%	40%	56%	10%	83%	37%	10%	84%	42%	36%	7%	81%	50%	12%	82%	34%
Not liberal or progressive enough	6%	6%	7%	7%	6%	6%	17%	12%	3%	3%	5%	11%	17%	8%	5%	7%	4%	14%	14%	12%	6%	5%	9%	4%	8%	8%	3%	15%	8%	8%	3%	7%	8%	3%	13%
Not too far either way	44%	46%	44%	44%	37%	51%	47%	44%	43%	46%	43%	66%	43%	50%	41%	50%	39%	52%	55%	61%	48%	35%	78%	8%	43%	79%	7%	40%	41%	82%	10%	39%	77%	9%	46%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	5%	8%	4%	2%	4%	4%	3%	5%	3%	6%	4%	10%	10%	3%	6%	2%	5%	9%	10%	2%	6%	4%	4%	5%	12%	3%	5%	4%	14%	4%	6%	4%	3%	5%	7%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

If Donald Trump won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Nothing would change	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	<.5%	3%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	6%	1%	1%	5%	4%	<.5%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	5%
Minor changes to how things work	13%	15%	13%	11%	15%	11%	21%	19%	13%	6%	13%	11%	13%	15%	11%	15%	11%	15%	11%	13%	15%	11%	6%	20%	21%	5%	18%	35%	22%	6%	16%	16%	7%	17%	22%
Major changes to how things work	46%	44%	48%	47%	51%	43%	49%	45%	48%	45%	48%	27%	51%	44%	48%	44%	50%	44%	38%	35%	43%	54%	25%	70%	41%	25%	73%	37%	36%	23%	70%	48%	25%	72%	41%
He would tear down the system completely	37%	37%	36%	39%	30%	45%	27%	33%	35%	47%	37%	60%	31%	39%	37%	40%	35%	39%	47%	51%	39%	32%	67%	7%	27%	68%	6%	18%	35%	69%	12%	30%	65%	8%	31%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	3%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	6%	1%	2%	5%	3%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very good for the country	34%	32%	34%	36%	41%	28%	22%	31%	39%	35%	37%	6%	26%	25%	39%	26%	43%	16%	17%	15%	32%	42%	<.5%	73%	8%	<.5%	76%	12%	10%	2%	75%	29%	2%	75%	20%
Somewhat good for the country	8%	8%	9%	7%	9%	7%	11%	9%	9%	5%	8%	6%	10%	10%	7%	10%	7%	9%	7%	9%	7%	9%	<1%	16%	17%	<1%	14%	22%	18%	1%	12%	13%	2%	14%	13%
Somewhat bad for the country	4%	6%	3%	4%	5%	4%	8%	5%	3%	4%	4%	8%	8%	5%	4%	5%	3%	5%	10%	4%	5%	3%	8%	<.5%	7%	7%	<.5%	8%	8%	6%	2%	6%	6%	<1%	10%
Very bad for the country	43%	41%	43%	44%	34%	51%	43%	45%	38%	48%	42%	64%	39%	52%	38%	52%	37%	55%	47%	63%	45%	34%	84%	<1%	21%	85%	<.5%	14%	28%	85%	4%	37%	81%	3%	34%
Neither good nor bad	6%	7%	6%	5%	7%	6%	12%	6%	6%	5%	5%	15%	10%	6%	7%	5%	5%	11%	13%	6%	7%	6%	4%	7%	33%	3%	5%	33%	26%	4%	5%	9%	5%	5%	16%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	0%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%
[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	<.5%	3%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	6%	1%	1%	5%	4%	<.5%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	5%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	3%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	6%	1%	2%	5%	3%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%
NET Good	42%	40%	43%	44%	50%	36%	33%	40%	48%	40%	46%	12%	36%	35%	46%	36%	51%	26%	25%	24%	40%	51%	1%	89%	25%	<1%	91%	33%	28%	3%	87%	42%	4%	88%	34%
NET Bad	47%	47%	47%	48%	39%	55%	51%	50%	41%	52%	46%	72%	46%	57%	42%	57%	40%	60%	57%	67%	50%	38%	91%	<1%	28%	93%	<1%	22%	36%	91%	6%	42%	87%	4%	44%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

If Kamala Harris won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or she would tear down the system completely?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Nothing would change	10%	7%	12%	12%	15%	6%	13%	12%	11%	7%	10%	10%	17%	11%	10%	11%	9%	13%	14%	9%	11%	10%	5%	14%	22%	5%	14%	27%	20%	4%	13%	14%	7%	13%	10%
Minor changes to how things work	41%	40%	40%	43%	37%	45%	43%	50%	38%	39%	42%	47%	36%	52%	35%	54%	35%	45%	39%	56%	42%	35%	67%	13%	42%	67%	11%	43%	52%	61%	15%	45%	64%	14%	42%
Major changes to how things work	22%	23%	24%	20%	20%	25%	25%	18%	22%	25%	21%	34%	24%	21%	23%	20%	22%	26%	30%	24%	23%	21%	25%	20%	18%	26%	20%	17%	10%	30%	20%	17%	25%	19%	24%
She would tear down the system completely	23%	24%	22%	24%	25%	21%	18%	18%	23%	27%	25%	7%	20%	14%	28%	15%	31%	12%	15%	10%	21%	30%	<.5%	49%	11%	<.5%	51%	9%	9%	1%	50%	20%	2%	49%	21%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	6%	2%	2%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	5%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	<1%	4%	4%	2%	2%	3%	4%	2%	4%	7%	2%	4%	4%	8%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very good for the country	26%	26%	25%	26%	17%	34%	18%	24%	23%	32%	25%	43%	19%	30%	24%	30%	22%	28%	31%	37%	25%	22%	50%	<1%	2%	53%	<1%	1%	1%	59%	2%	14%	50%	2%	15%
Somewhat good for the country	15%	15%	16%	15%	15%	15%	24%	18%	11%	16%	15%	19%	20%	17%	14%	16%	14%	22%	17%	17%	17%	13%	29%	<1%	5%	29%	<1%	14%	8%	25%	3%	18%	28%	1%	17%
Somewhat bad for the country	6%	6%	5%	6%	7%	5%	12%	6%	6%	3%	6%	3%	4%	6%	6%	6%	7%	4%	3%	4%	6%	7%	<1%	11%	8%	<1%	11%	10%	11%	<.5%	11%	7%	2%	10%	5%
Very bad for the country	31%	30%	31%	31%	34%	28%	21%	26%	34%	32%	32%	10%	24%	24%	34%	25%	37%	17%	18%	16%	28%	37%	<1%	64%	20%	<1%	66%	22%	12%	2%	63%	30%	2%	64%	23%
Neither good nor bad	9%	10%	9%	7%	9%	8%	10%	12%	8%	7%	8%	12%	12%	9%	8%	9%	7%	12%	13%	14%	9%	6%	10%	5%	32%	9%	4%	21%	35%	7%	6%	12%	9%	4%	24%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	4%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%
[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change	10%	7%	12%	12%	15%	6%	13%	12%	11%	7%	10%	10%	17%	11%	10%	11%	9%	13%	14%	9%	11%	10%	5%	14%	22%	5%	14%	27%	20%	4%	13%	14%	7%	13%	10%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused	3%	6%	2%	2%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	5%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	<1%	4%	4%	2%	2%	3%	4%	2%	4%	7%	2%	4%	4%	8%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:
Will bring about the right kind of change
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	32%	32%	31%	34%	21%	43%	27%	33%	28%	39%	32%	46%	32%	38%	29%	38%	29%	43%	35%	45%	33%	27%	64%	<1%	5%	66%	<1%	9%	8%	73%	2%	20%	63%	2%	21%
Somewhat well	18%	19%	18%	18%	19%	16%	29%	20%	16%	15%	16%	32%	24%	21%	17%	20%	14%	23%	31%	27%	19%	14%	30%	4%	31%	29%	4%	23%	29%	22%	6%	25%	28%	5%	32%
Not too well	10%	10%	11%	10%	12%	9%	15%	12%	12%	7%	11%	5%	12%	10%	10%	10%	11%	10%	8%	9%	11%	10%	4%	16%	19%	3%	14%	29%	30%	2%	16%	12%	4%	16%	13%
Not at all well	37%	36%	38%	37%	45%	30%	28%	34%	41%	37%	39%	14%	30%	31%	40%	32%	44%	24%	22%	18%	35%	46%	<1%	77%	37%	<1%	79%	38%	26%	2%	73%	41%	4%	76%	32%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	<1%	3%	<1%	4%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	7%	1%	2%	1%	8%	<1%	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%
NET Well	51%	51%	49%	51%	40%	60%	56%	53%	45%	54%	48%	78%	56%	59%	46%	58%	43%	66%	66%	72%	52%	42%	94%	5%	36%	95%	5%	32%	37%	95%	8%	45%	90%	7%	53%
NET Not well	48%	46%	49%	47%	57%	39%	43%	45%	53%	44%	50%	19%	42%	41%	51%	42%	55%	33%	31%	27%	46%	56%	5%	93%	56%	4%	93%	67%	55%	4%	89%	53%	8%	91%	45%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Has the temperament to be an effective president
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	39%	36%	40%	41%	29%	48%	41%	39%	36%	43%	38%	61%	38%	47%	35%	47%	33%	53%	46%	57%	40%	32%	76%	2%	9%	77%	2%	14%	16%	80%	4%	32%	74%	4%	30%
Somewhat well	16%	17%	16%	14%	17%	14%	24%	21%	11%	15%	14%	24%	23%	17%	15%	16%	13%	20%	25%	20%	16%	14%	21%	8%	34%	20%	7%	29%	40%	15%	12%	20%	20%	8%	25%
Not too well	9%	9%	9%	10%	10%	9%	11%	11%	13%	5%	10%	2%	11%	10%	9%	11%	10%	8%	6%	6%	10%	10%	<1%	18%	21%	<1%	17%	25%	18%	2%	14%	12%	2%	15%	14%
Not at all well	34%	35%	33%	33%	41%	28%	23%	28%	38%	35%	36%	11%	26%	25%	38%	26%	42%	17%	20%	16%	33%	41%	<.5%	70%	29%	<.5%	73%	28%	18%	2%	69%	34%	3%	71%	28%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	3%	<1%	1%	3%	2%	2%	6%	1%	2%	3%	8%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%
NET Well	55%	53%	56%	56%	46%	62%	64%	60%	48%	58%	52%	85%	61%	64%	50%	63%	46%	73%	71%	77%	56%	46%	97%	10%	43%	98%	9%	43%	56%	95%	15%	51%	93%	12%	55%
NET Not well	43%	44%	43%	43%	51%	36%	34%	39%	51%	40%	46%	12%	37%	35%	47%	36%	51%	25%	26%	22%	42%	51%	1%	88%	51%	<1%	89%	53%	36%	4%	83%	46%	5%	86%	42%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Is intelligent
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	48%	46%	50%	49%	37%	58%	55%	49%	43%	51%	45%	76%	53%	57%	43%	56%	39%	66%	62%	69%	50%	39%	88%	6%	33%	89%	5%	34%	43%	88%	8%	45%	87%	6%	40%
Somewhat well	17%	18%	17%	15%	19%	14%	21%	21%	16%	12%	17%	15%	20%	17%	16%	18%	16%	13%	20%	14%	18%	17%	11%	22%	30%	10%	21%	37%	28%	10%	20%	21%	10%	21%	30%
Not too well	9%	7%	10%	9%	10%	8%	10%	9%	9%	9%	9%	4%	8%	8%	9%	8%	10%	7%	5%	7%	9%	9%	<1%	17%	11%	<.5%	18%	10%	9%	<.5%	18%	8%	2%	16%	11%
Not at all well	24%	26%	22%	24%	31%	18%	13%	20%	29%	25%	26%	5%	17%	15%	29%	15%	32%	13%	11%	9%	22%	31%	0%	51%	16%	0%	53%	16%	10%	1%	51%	22%	<1%	53%	18%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	2%	2%	4%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	3%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	<1%	3%	1%	1%	4%	<1%	4%	9%	<1%	4%	2%	11%	<.5%	3%	3%	<1%	4%	2%
NET Well	65%	64%	67%	63%	56%	72%	76%	70%	60%	63%	62%	90%	73%	75%	59%	75%	55%	79%	82%	83%	67%	56%	99%	28%	63%	99%	26%	72%	71%	98%	28%	66%	97%	27%	69%
NET Not well	33%	33%	32%	33%	40%	26%	24%	28%	37%	33%	35%	9%	25%	23%	38%	23%	42%	21%	15%	16%	32%	40%	<1%	68%	27%	<.5%	71%	26%	18%	1%	69%	31%	2%	69%	29%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Has a clear vision for the country
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	32%	30%	34%	32%	22%	41%	28%	28%	28%	39%	31%	49%	30%	37%	30%	37%	28%	36%	40%	44%	34%	26%	60%	3%	7%	62%	3%	7%	10%	68%	5%	20%	60%	3%	21%
Somewhat well	21%	21%	21%	22%	23%	21%	33%	29%	19%	15%	20%	34%	30%	26%	19%	25%	16%	31%	32%	29%	22%	18%	33%	7%	36%	32%	6%	41%	31%	26%	9%	28%	31%	8%	31%
Not too well	10%	11%	10%	10%	12%	8%	16%	10%	10%	8%	11%	5%	10%	11%	10%	11%	10%	11%	6%	9%	12%	9%	4%	16%	18%	3%	15%	21%	25%	3%	14%	13%	5%	15%	16%
Not at all well	34%	34%	33%	34%	40%	28%	22%	30%	38%	34%	36%	9%	24%	24%	39%	25%	43%	17%	18%	15%	29%	44%	<1%	70%	27%	<.5%	73%	30%	20%	2%	69%	35%	2%	71%	28%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	<.5%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	6%	2%	3%	2%	3%	5%	4%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	12%	2%	3%	1%	13%	<1%	3%	5%	2%	3%	4%
NET Well	53%	51%	55%	54%	44%	62%	61%	57%	48%	55%	51%	83%	60%	63%	48%	62%	44%	67%	72%	73%	56%	44%	93%	11%	43%	94%	9%	48%	41%	94%	14%	47%	91%	11%	52%
NET Not well	44%	45%	43%	43%	52%	36%	38%	40%	49%	43%	47%	14%	34%	35%	48%	36%	53%	28%	24%	24%	41%	53%	5%	86%	45%	4%	88%	51%	46%	5%	84%	48%	7%	85%	44%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Is honest
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	34%	32%	34%	34%	26%	41%	25%	30%	29%	44%	33%	52%	32%	40%	30%	40%	28%	43%	41%	47%	35%	28%	64%	2%	16%	66%	2%	8%	21%	69%	5%	24%	64%	2%	24%
Somewhat well	20%	22%	18%	19%	20%	20%	34%	25%	20%	12%	19%	25%	25%	22%	19%	21%	18%	25%	24%	23%	22%	16%	30%	8%	23%	30%	7%	31%	26%	24%	10%	25%	27%	8%	32%
Not too well	10%	7%	13%	9%	10%	9%	12%	10%	12%	6%	10%	7%	11%	10%	9%	10%	9%	7%	10%	8%	10%	10%	2%	17%	21%	1%	16%	29%	20%	2%	16%	12%	2%	16%	14%
Not at all well	33%	34%	32%	34%	41%	27%	28%	31%	35%	34%	35%	14%	28%	25%	38%	25%	41%	20%	23%	19%	30%	42%	1%	69%	27%	<1%	72%	29%	18%	3%	66%	34%	4%	70%	26%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	4%	2%	4%	3%	4%	<1%	3%	4%	3%	4%	2%	4%	3%	4%	3%	4%	5%	2%	3%	3%	4%	2%	4%	13%	2%	4%	2%	16%	2%	3%	5%	3%	3%	4%
NET Well	53%	54%	53%	53%	46%	61%	59%	56%	48%	57%	52%	77%	57%	62%	49%	61%	46%	68%	65%	70%	57%	44%	95%	10%	39%	96%	9%	39%	47%	94%	15%	49%	91%	11%	56%
NET Not well	43%	41%	45%	43%	51%	36%	40%	41%	47%	40%	45%	21%	39%	35%	47%	36%	50%	27%	33%	27%	40%	52%	3%	86%	48%	2%	87%	58%	37%	5%	82%	46%	6%	86%	40%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:
Will bring about the right kind of change
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	34%	34%	34%	34%	39%	29%	23%	27%	40%	35%	37%	7%	26%	23%	40%	24%	44%	15%	18%	15%	32%	43%	<.5%	72%	12%	<.5%	76%	10%	9%	3%	76%	28%	2%	75%	21%
Somewhat well	13%	13%	14%	12%	16%	10%	15%	18%	13%	9%	13%	11%	18%	15%	12%	15%	12%	16%	14%	12%	12%	15%	3%	23%	23%	2%	21%	36%	32%	4%	16%	19%	5%	19%	27%
Not too well	7%	7%	6%	6%	8%	6%	12%	9%	5%	5%	6%	9%	10%	7%	7%	7%	5%	5%	13%	6%	7%	6%	9%	3%	24%	9%	2%	20%	19%	6%	3%	11%	8%	3%	14%
Not at all well	46%	45%	45%	47%	36%	54%	48%	47%	41%	51%	44%	71%	45%	55%	41%	54%	38%	62%	54%	67%	49%	35%	87%	1%	40%	88%	<1%	33%	38%	87%	4%	42%	85%	3%	37%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%
NET Well	47%	47%	48%	46%	55%	40%	38%	44%	54%	44%	50%	18%	44%	38%	52%	38%	56%	31%	33%	27%	43%	58%	3%	96%	35%	3%	97%	46%	41%	7%	92%	47%	6%	94%	48%
NET Not well	52%	52%	51%	53%	44%	60%	61%	55%	46%	56%	50%	80%	55%	62%	47%	61%	43%	67%	66%	73%	56%	42%	96%	4%	64%	97%	2%	53%	56%	93%	7%	53%	93%	5%	52%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Has the temperament to be an effective president
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	28%	28%	30%	27%	33%	24%	17%	21%	33%	31%	30%	4%	23%	18%	34%	18%	38%	14%	14%	12%	27%	35%	<.5%	60%	9%	<.5%	64%	7%	7%	2%	62%	24%	2%	63%	11%
Somewhat well	17%	16%	16%	19%	20%	14%	20%	22%	18%	11%	17%	12%	19%	17%	17%	17%	17%	14%	17%	14%	14%	20%	4%	30%	24%	3%	30%	23%	25%	5%	27%	19%	4%	27%	33%
Not too well	8%	11%	7%	7%	9%	8%	19%	8%	8%	6%	8%	9%	14%	8%	9%	8%	8%	8%	14%	8%	9%	8%	9%	7%	18%	8%	5%	31%	24%	8%	4%	12%	8%	6%	19%
Not at all well	46%	44%	47%	47%	37%	54%	43%	48%	42%	52%	45%	73%	43%	57%	40%	56%	38%	63%	53%	66%	50%	36%	87%	2%	47%	88%	1%	37%	40%	86%	6%	44%	86%	3%	35%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	3%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	4%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%
NET Well	45%	44%	45%	46%	53%	38%	37%	43%	50%	42%	47%	15%	42%	35%	50%	35%	54%	28%	31%	25%	41%	55%	4%	90%	33%	4%	93%	31%	32%	7%	89%	43%	6%	90%	44%
NET Not well	54%	55%	54%	54%	47%	62%	62%	57%	49%	58%	52%	82%	57%	65%	49%	64%	45%	71%	67%	74%	58%	44%	96%	9%	65%	96%	6%	68%	64%	93%	10%	56%	94%	9%	54%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Is intelligent
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	35%	34%	37%	35%	40%	31%	22%	29%	39%	38%	38%	12%	31%	24%	42%	25%	45%	18%	25%	18%	32%	44%	3%	73%	14%	3%	76%	12%	17%	4%	74%	31%	5%	73%	24%
Somewhat well	20%	21%	19%	20%	22%	18%	32%	26%	21%	12%	20%	22%	20%	24%	18%	25%	17%	20%	22%	22%	21%	19%	16%	23%	41%	15%	21%	52%	32%	15%	18%	28%	15%	22%	39%
Not too well	10%	11%	10%	10%	11%	10%	15%	11%	9%	10%	10%	14%	14%	13%	9%	12%	9%	19%	11%	9%	13%	9%	17%	3%	17%	16%	1%	22%	21%	16%	4%	10%	17%	2%	6%
Not at all well	33%	32%	33%	35%	26%	40%	31%	33%	29%	39%	32%	51%	34%	38%	30%	38%	28%	43%	41%	50%	33%	27%	63%	1%	20%	65%	1%	14%	21%	64%	3%	30%	62%	2%	30%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	8%	<1%	<1%	0%	9%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
NET Well	56%	56%	57%	54%	62%	49%	54%	56%	60%	50%	57%	34%	51%	48%	60%	50%	62%	37%	47%	41%	53%	63%	19%	95%	55%	18%	97%	64%	49%	19%	92%	59%	20%	95%	63%
NET Not well	43%	43%	42%	45%	37%	50%	46%	43%	38%	49%	42%	65%	48%	51%	39%	50%	37%	62%	53%	59%	47%	35%	80%	4%	37%	81%	2%	36%	42%	80%	7%	40%	79%	4%	36%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Has a clear vision for the country
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	43%	41%	44%	43%	48%	38%	40%	37%	48%	40%	45%	16%	39%	36%	46%	37%	50%	29%	28%	27%	40%	51%	9%	82%	20%	8%	84%	29%	23%	11%	83%	40%	10%	84%	31%
Somewhat well	17%	18%	16%	16%	17%	16%	28%	25%	18%	8%	16%	17%	26%	23%	14%	22%	12%	28%	19%	22%	17%	14%	18%	14%	34%	17%	12%	34%	39%	17%	10%	22%	17%	11%	32%
Not too well	7%	8%	6%	7%	9%	6%	12%	9%	7%	5%	7%	7%	13%	8%	7%	8%	6%	8%	12%	7%	9%	6%	11%	3%	13%	11%	2%	15%	13%	10%	2%	9%	10%	2%	14%
Not at all well	33%	32%	33%	33%	25%	40%	18%	29%	26%	46%	32%	58%	22%	33%	33%	32%	32%	35%	40%	44%	32%	29%	62%	<1%	28%	63%	<1%	21%	20%	62%	5%	29%	62%	2%	20%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	1%	0%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	4%	<1%	<.5%	0%	5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	3%
NET Well	60%	59%	61%	59%	66%	54%	68%	62%	66%	48%	61%	33%	65%	59%	60%	59%	62%	57%	47%	49%	57%	65%	26%	96%	54%	25%	97%	63%	62%	28%	93%	61%	27%	95%	63%
NET Not well	40%	40%	39%	41%	34%	46%	31%	38%	34%	51%	38%	65%	35%	40%	40%	40%	38%	43%	52%	51%	41%	35%	73%	4%	41%	74%	3%	37%	33%	72%	7%	38%	72%	4%	34%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Is honest
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	22%	23%	22%	21%	24%	20%	17%	16%	23%	25%	23%	7%	15%	12%	27%	13%	30%	8%	13%	11%	20%	27%	1%	46%	8%	<1%	48%	2%	9%	3%	50%	16%	2%	48%	11%
Somewhat well	19%	16%	20%	21%	23%	16%	18%	21%	22%	15%	20%	8%	22%	18%	20%	19%	21%	15%	16%	13%	18%	22%	2%	38%	19%	2%	39%	21%	16%	2%	34%	23%	3%	36%	30%
Not too well	9%	12%	8%	8%	12%	7%	19%	11%	9%	7%	8%	13%	13%	10%	9%	9%	8%	14%	12%	10%	11%	8%	7%	11%	27%	6%	9%	41%	23%	6%	7%	14%	8%	9%	18%
Not at all well	49%	48%	48%	50%	40%	57%	46%	52%	45%	53%	47%	70%	49%	59%	43%	59%	41%	62%	57%	66%	51%	41%	90%	4%	42%	91%	3%	36%	46%	89%	9%	46%	87%	6%	40%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	0%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	1%	5%	<.5%	1%	0%	6%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%	<1%
NET Well	41%	39%	42%	42%	47%	36%	36%	37%	44%	40%	43%	16%	37%	31%	47%	31%	50%	23%	29%	24%	38%	49%	3%	84%	26%	3%	87%	23%	25%	5%	84%	38%	5%	84%	41%
NET Not well	58%	60%	57%	58%	52%	63%	64%	62%	54%	60%	56%	82%	63%	69%	52%	68%	49%	76%	69%	75%	61%	49%	97%	15%	68%	97%	12%	77%	69%	95%	15%	60%	95%	15%	58%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)	22%	22%	21%	24%	27%	18%	16%	20%	26%	21%	23%	16%	22%	19%	24%	19%	25%	16%	21%	18%	22%	24%	9%	37%	19%	9%	37%	24%	24%	8%	34%	28%	9%	35%	32%
[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living	5%	8%	4%	3%	6%	5%	6%	7%	5%	3%	4%	8%	4%	3%	6%	3%	5%	2%	8%	3%	5%	5%	3%	7%	2%	3%	7%	5%	3%	3%	5%	7%	3%	7%	5%
[VOL] Abortion	16%	16%	15%	16%	7%	23%	25%	19%	15%	11%	16%	17%	17%	20%	13%	20%	14%	22%	13%	22%	16%	13%	28%	3%	7%	29%	2%	12%	6%	32%	3%	11%	27%	3%	17%
[VOL] Immigration	13%	11%	16%	12%	15%	11%	9%	10%	13%	17%	14%	2%	11%	10%	15%	10%	16%	9%	5%	6%	13%	16%	2%	26%	4%	2%	28%	9%	3%	2%	28%	12%	2%	28%	10%
[VOL] Crime	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%
[VOL] Gun policies	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Health care	2%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%	1%	2%	1%	1%	6%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	4%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	<.5%	4%	3%	<.5%	5%	<.5%	4%	<.5%	<1%	3%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOL] Education	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	4%	1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	0%
[VOL] Foreign policy	3%	2%	4%	4%	4%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%	3%	6%	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	5%	4%	2%	4%	4%	2%	5%	5%	2%	5%	9%	5%	1%	5%	5%	2%	5%	2%
[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%
[VOL] China	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Climate change	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	3%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	0%	3%	3%	<.5%	3%	<.5%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	<.5%	0%	2%	0%	3%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	0%	3%
[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption	8%	7%	7%	10%	9%	7%	3%	8%	6%	11%	8%	10%	3%	12%	6%	13%	6%	9%	5%	8%	8%	7%	15%	<1%	2%	16%	<.5%	2%	4%	17%	<1%	6%	15%	<1%	6%
[VOL] Election integrity	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOL] Equality/inequality	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	1%	5%	3%	1%	3%	<1%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	<1%	2%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	<1%	<1%
[VOL] Polarization/division	1%	<.5%	3%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	3%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	<1%
[VOL] Racism/racial issues	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%
[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate	5%	7%	5%	4%	6%	5%	1%	4%	6%	6%	5%	6%	4%	4%	6%	5%	5%	<1%	7%	8%	4%	5%	8%	1%	6%	9%	1%	3%	2%	8%	1%	5%	8%	1%	3%
[VOL] Character/competence of candidate	6%	7%	5%	8%	7%	7%	5%	5%	7%	8%	7%	5%	5%	6%	7%	5%	8%	8%	3%	7%	6%	7%	8%	5%	6%	8%	5%	3%	9%	8%	6%	6%	8%	5%	2%
[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	1%	<1%	3%	2%	<.5%	0%	<1%	3%	3%	2%	<1%	1%	<.5%	5%	2%	2%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	4%	1%	<.5%	0%	7%	<1%	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] Taxes	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	5%	<.5%	<1%	3%	3%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] Student loans	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOL] Other (specify)	7%	7%	7%	6%	6%	8%	8%	3%	7%	9%	7%	11%	5%	4%	9%	4%	8%	3%	11%	10%	4%	8%	6%	7%	12%	6%	8%	6%	12%	5%	8%	6%	6%	8%	5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	6%	2%	4%	4%	4%	8%	4%	2%	4%	3%	5%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	5%	5%	4%	4%	4%	4%	3%	17%	4%	3%	11%	12%	3%	3%	5%	4%	3%	9%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	49%	49%	48%	49%	40%	57%	55%	50%	43%	54%	47%	78%	52%	58%	44%	57%	41%	62%	65%	68%	53%	39%	96%	<1%	18%	97%	<.5%	31%	25%	94%	6%	44%	92%	3%	42%
Donald Trump, the Republican	47%	46%	49%	47%	56%	39%	41%	44%	53%	44%	50%	14%	43%	37%	52%	39%	57%	28%	31%	26%	44%	58%	2%	97%	29%	2%	99%	46%	31%	4%	93%	48%	6%	95%	46%
[VOL] Neither candidate	2%	3%	1%	2%	3%	1%	3%	4%	2%	<1%	2%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	31%	<1%	<.5%	14%	23%	<.5%	<.5%	5%	<1%	1%	8%
[VOL] Someone else; specify	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	4%	0%	<.5%	6%	5%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	1%	2%	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	5%	2%	4%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	17%	<1%	<.5%	2%	17%	2%	<.5%	2%	1%	<1%	3%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:
The economy
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala Harris	46%	45%	46%	46%	36%	55%	50%	47%	38%	53%	44%	75%	47%	54%	41%	53%	38%	60%	60%	68%	48%	36%	89%	<1%	18%	91%	<1%	19%	28%	91%	3%	40%	87%	2%	40%
Donald Trump	52%	51%	52%	52%	61%	43%	49%	49%	59%	45%	54%	22%	50%	43%	56%	44%	60%	36%	38%	29%	49%	62%	8%	99%	53%	7%	99%	72%	50%	8%	95%	55%	11%	97%	55%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	3%	4%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	3%	<.5%	29%	3%	<.5%	8%	22%	1%	2%	4%	2%	1%	6%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Abortion
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala Harris	58%	56%	58%	58%	50%	65%	70%	62%	52%	59%	56%	84%	62%	67%	53%	67%	49%	72%	72%	79%	61%	47%	97%	15%	50%	97%	14%	56%	59%	95%	16%	58%	95%	15%	63%
Donald Trump	37%	36%	37%	37%	44%	31%	25%	33%	41%	38%	39%	11%	29%	27%	42%	28%	46%	20%	21%	16%	33%	48%	2%	77%	15%	2%	78%	31%	18%	3%	77%	35%	4%	76%	28%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	5%	7%	5%	4%	7%	5%	6%	6%	7%	3%	5%	4%	10%	6%	5%	6%	4%	8%	7%	5%	6%	5%	1%	8%	34%	1%	8%	14%	23%	2%	6%	7%	1%	8%	9%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Immigration
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala Harris	46%	45%	47%	46%	36%	55%	54%	47%	39%	52%	44%	71%	47%	55%	41%	54%	39%	60%	57%	67%	49%	36%	89%	2%	21%	90%	1%	18%	31%	90%	6%	39%	86%	2%	44%
Donald Trump	51%	51%	51%	52%	61%	43%	45%	49%	58%	46%	53%	26%	45%	42%	56%	43%	59%	36%	38%	28%	48%	62%	9%	97%	53%	7%	98%	76%	45%	8%	94%	56%	12%	96%	50%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	3%	4%	2%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	7%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	6%	4%	3%	2%	2%	<1%	26%	2%	<1%	6%	24%	1%	<.5%	5%	2%	1%	7%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Democracy
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala Harris	54%	54%	54%	54%	46%	62%	64%	57%	48%	57%	52%	85%	58%	64%	49%	63%	45%	70%	71%	75%	58%	44%	98%	7%	53%	99%	5%	47%	60%	96%	10%	53%	95%	8%	55%
Donald Trump	42%	41%	43%	43%	50%	35%	31%	38%	48%	42%	45%	13%	38%	33%	47%	33%	51%	25%	27%	23%	38%	52%	<1%	90%	15%	<1%	91%	35%	19%	3%	87%	42%	4%	89%	35%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	4%	5%	3%	3%	5%	3%	6%	5%	4%	1%	3%	2%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	5%	2%	2%	4%	4%	<1%	4%	32%	<1%	3%	18%	21%	<1%	3%	5%	1%	4%	10%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

What single news source do you turn to most often?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
[VOL] Fox News	15%	14%	18%	15%	17%	14%	6%	10%	15%	21%	17%	5%	9%	11%	18%	12%	20%	6%	7%	7%	16%	18%	2%	31%	9%	2%	33%	2%	11%	2%	34%	12%	2%	33%	10%
[VOL] CNN	10%	13%	9%	8%	9%	11%	9%	11%	8%	11%	9%	16%	11%	9%	10%	9%	9%	12%	14%	11%	10%	9%	16%	3%	8%	16%	3%	10%	8%	16%	6%	7%	16%	3%	9%
[VOL] MSNBC	4%	3%	6%	4%	3%	5%	3%	2%	4%	8%	5%	9%	<.5%	5%	4%	4%	5%	6%	4%	3%	6%	4%	9%	<.5%	0%	9%	<.5%	<1%	0%	11%	<.5%	2%	8%	<1%	4%
[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	5%	2%	7%	5%	3%	4%	3%	6%	7%	2%	7%	2%	12%	<1%	6%	5%	3%	8%	<.5%	4%	8%	<.5%	2%	4%	7%	<.5%	4%	8%	<.5%	3%
[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality	1%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	1%	0%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	0%	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	0%	3%	0%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	0%	3%	<1%
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC	16%	13%	17%	17%	14%	18%	8%	8%	16%	23%	16%	24%	6%	14%	17%	15%	18%	12%	16%	16%	14%	17%	23%	8%	18%	23%	8%	15%	13%	22%	9%	15%	24%	9%	8%
[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)	4%	5%	2%	5%	3%	5%	4%	4%	5%	3%	4%	5%	6%	4%	4%	4%	4%	3%	8%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%	8%	4%	4%	9%	5%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%	5%
[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal	6%	4%	7%	7%	6%	6%	9%	7%	6%	4%	6%	4%	5%	11%	3%	11%	4%	9%	1%	11%	6%	5%	10%	2%	2%	10%	2%	6%	6%	10%	2%	5%	9%	3%	6%
[VOL] Local print or online news organizations	<1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	0%	2%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	0%	1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	0%	2%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] Social media	15%	17%	14%	15%	16%	15%	36%	22%	13%	7%	14%	18%	26%	13%	17%	13%	15%	15%	27%	20%	16%	13%	13%	18%	7%	13%	18%	20%	14%	12%	13%	21%	14%	15%	28%
[VOL] Friends and family	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%
[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	2%	<1%	1%	0%	6%	3%	<1%	2%	<1%	8%	0%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	3%	4%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	<1%
[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)	3%	3%	2%	4%	4%	2%	3%	4%	4%	<1%	3%	<.5%	5%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	4%	3%	2%	3%	3%	5%	3%	2%	6%	5%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	5%
[VOL] Conservative news sites	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	1%	0%	3%	2%	1%	2%	0%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	0%	2%	2%	<.5%	3%	3%	<.5%	3%	0%	3%	0%	3%	2%	<.5%	3%	0%
[VOL] Newsmax	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	3%	0%	4%	0%	0%	4%	0%	0%	0%	5%	<1%	0%	4%	1%
[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	<1%	1%	0%	<.5%	1%	0%	<1%
[VOL] Doesn’t consume news	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	<.5%	1%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	5%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	2%	17%	<1%	1%	9%	10%	<.5%	2%	3%	<1%	3%	4%
[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)	8%	8%	7%	10%	10%	6%	9%	8%	10%	7%	9%	8%	5%	8%	8%	8%	9%	5%	6%	5%	6%	12%	5%	11%	15%	5%	11%	12%	14%	6%	9%	9%	6%	11%	6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	5%	5%	3%	5%	3%	3%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	6%	4%	5%	4%	4%	3%	5%	3%	4%	5%	3%	6%	3%	3%	6%	4%	2%	3%	5%	4%	3%	6%	6%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Often	48%	51%	47%	47%	43%	53%	73%	64%	48%	31%	46%	49%	62%	53%	45%	52%	43%	63%	53%	51%	52%	44%	49%	48%	39%	49%	48%	55%	44%	52%	49%	45%	49%	47%	55%
Sometimes	19%	18%	20%	19%	17%	21%	18%	18%	22%	16%	18%	29%	21%	19%	19%	19%	17%	19%	28%	23%	16%	20%	20%	18%	26%	20%	17%	29%	14%	18%	18%	22%	19%	18%	22%
Rarely	13%	13%	14%	14%	14%	13%	5%	11%	15%	16%	14%	11%	7%	13%	14%	13%	15%	10%	7%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	15%	14%	13%	6%	18%	13%	12%	13%	14%	12%	10%
Never	19%	18%	19%	20%	26%	13%	4%	7%	15%	35%	21%	11%	10%	14%	22%	16%	24%	9%	11%	14%	18%	22%	17%	21%	18%	17%	21%	10%	23%	16%	21%	20%	17%	22%	13%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Often	13%	17%	13%	10%	10%	15%	43%	24%	8%	2%	12%	19%	19%	13%	13%	13%	12%	18%	20%	18%	13%	12%	13%	13%	17%	13%	12%	25%	13%	14%	15%	10%	13%	11%	26%
Sometimes	9%	9%	9%	8%	8%	10%	18%	10%	9%	5%	8%	17%	15%	7%	10%	6%	8%	13%	18%	12%	8%	8%	11%	7%	6%	10%	6%	16%	8%	10%	6%	9%	9%	6%	11%
Rarely	10%	12%	10%	8%	9%	10%	12%	11%	12%	7%	9%	17%	11%	11%	10%	11%	8%	11%	15%	11%	12%	8%	12%	8%	10%	13%	8%	7%	9%	12%	6%	12%	12%	8%	10%
Never	49%	44%	49%	54%	47%	52%	23%	49%	56%	50%	50%	37%	45%	54%	46%	55%	48%	49%	36%	45%	49%	49%	46%	52%	48%	46%	52%	42%	46%	47%	51%	49%	48%	52%	39%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%
[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media	19%	18%	19%	20%	26%	13%	4%	7%	15%	35%	21%	11%	10%	14%	22%	16%	24%	9%	11%	14%	18%	22%	17%	21%	18%	17%	21%	10%	23%	16%	21%	20%	17%	22%	13%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(Without combination) (If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Often	16%	21%	16%	12%	14%	18%	45%	25%	9%	4%	15%	21%	21%	15%	17%	15%	15%	20%	22%	21%	15%	15%	16%	16%	21%	16%	16%	28%	18%	16%	19%	12%	16%	15%	30%
Sometimes	11%	11%	11%	10%	11%	11%	19%	10%	11%	7%	10%	19%	17%	8%	12%	7%	11%	14%	20%	14%	10%	10%	13%	9%	7%	12%	8%	18%	10%	13%	8%	12%	11%	8%	13%
Rarely	12%	15%	12%	10%	12%	11%	12%	12%	14%	10%	12%	19%	12%	12%	12%	13%	11%	12%	17%	13%	14%	11%	15%	10%	13%	15%	10%	8%	12%	14%	8%	15%	15%	10%	12%
Never	60%	53%	60%	67%	63%	59%	24%	53%	66%	79%	64%	42%	49%	64%	58%	65%	63%	54%	41%	52%	60%	63%	56%	66%	59%	56%	67%	47%	60%	57%	65%	61%	58%	67%	45%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%
Number of respondents	1,381	421	508	452	596	755	218	356	456	317	1,082	113	159	677	697	547	534	117	154	245	561	575	726	598	57	691	544	84	62	484	387	430	675	507	157
Percentage of total electorate	100%	34%	33%	33%	43%	55%	13%	24%	36%	25%	79%	8%	10%	39%	60%	31%	48%	7%	12%	17%	40%	43%	51%	45%	4%	49%	42%	5%	4%	35%	31%	30%	48%	40%	9%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very liberal	11%	12%	11%	12%	8%	14%	22%	15%	9%	9%	12%	11%	10%	17%	8%	17%	9%	19%	6%	24%	11%	7%	22%	<.5%	4%	23%	<.5%	<1%	8%	27%	1%	5%	22%	<1%	8%
Somewhat liberal	12%	11%	12%	13%	10%	14%	19%	14%	10%	10%	12%	14%	17%	15%	10%	16%	9%	17%	15%	15%	13%	10%	21%	2%	10%	22%	2%	8%	11%	25%	2%	9%	20%	3%	13%
Moderate	38%	37%	40%	37%	36%	39%	34%	42%	37%	37%	36%	52%	42%	41%	36%	40%	34%	47%	47%	38%	41%	35%	45%	29%	46%	45%	27%	59%	45%	38%	23%	53%	46%	27%	46%
Somewhat conservative	18%	18%	18%	16%	21%	15%	15%	14%	21%	18%	18%	11%	16%	13%	21%	13%	22%	10%	15%	10%	15%	23%	5%	31%	26%	5%	31%	27%	15%	5%	32%	18%	6%	30%	19%
Very conservative	18%	17%	16%	20%	22%	14%	8%	12%	20%	21%	19%	8%	9%	12%	21%	13%	23%	4%	11%	9%	16%	22%	2%	36%	4%	2%	38%	<1%	6%	3%	40%	12%	3%	38%	6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	5%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	5%	3%	3%	6%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%	6%	4%	4%	2%	4%	2%	11%	3%	2%	4%	14%	2%	2%	3%	4%	2%	7%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Under $25,000	9%	11%	9%	6%	7%	11%	14%	6%	6%	12%	8%	17%	13%	3%	13%	3%	11%	1%	23%	13%	7%	9%	11%	6%	14%	11%	6%	11%	9%	12%	6%	9%	10%	6%	19%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000	15%	14%	18%	15%	12%	18%	15%	11%	12%	22%	15%	23%	13%	9%	19%	9%	19%	7%	24%	18%	14%	16%	15%	16%	9%	15%	16%	19%	12%	14%	18%	15%	15%	18%	11%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000	28%	28%	27%	30%	30%	27%	32%	29%	25%	31%	29%	29%	28%	25%	31%	26%	31%	23%	31%	30%	29%	27%	28%	29%	23%	28%	30%	25%	23%	28%	27%	30%	29%	27%	32%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000	29%	30%	28%	30%	34%	25%	27%	37%	36%	20%	30%	19%	29%	40%	23%	39%	24%	48%	11%	23%	33%	29%	28%	30%	34%	29%	30%	31%	29%	31%	31%	26%	30%	30%	22%
$200,000 or more	11%	11%	12%	10%	12%	11%	6%	13%	16%	6%	12%	6%	11%	17%	8%	17%	9%	17%	4%	8%	12%	11%	12%	11%	4%	12%	11%	8%	5%	10%	11%	13%	10%	12%	9%
[VOL] Refused	7%	5%	7%	9%	5%	8%	5%	4%	6%	9%	7%	5%	6%	6%	7%	6%	7%	5%	7%	8%	6%	8%	6%	8%	16%	5%	7%	6%	22%	5%	7%	7%	6%	7%	7%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Catholic	24%	20%	27%	24%	22%	26%	18%	16%	28%	27%	26%	4%	23%	23%	25%	24%	28%	15%	13%	18%	26%	24%	22%	27%	22%	22%	27%	16%	28%	22%	29%	22%	21%	29%	17%
Protestant (Christian)	28%	29%	30%	25%	27%	30%	21%	21%	26%	37%	29%	33%	23%	29%	28%	29%	29%	28%	27%	26%	24%	33%	25%	33%	18%	25%	34%	25%	18%	25%	34%	29%	25%	32%	24%
Mormon (LDS)	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%
Jewish	2%	<1%	3%	<1%	2%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	3%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	1%	5%	2%	1%	<.5%	5%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	3%
Muslim	1%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	3%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	8%	5%	1%	1%	<1%	0%	6%	6%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%	4%	6%	1%	<.5%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)	11%	10%	9%	14%	12%	9%	4%	10%	13%	11%	10%	21%	6%	7%	13%	7%	12%	7%	16%	11%	11%	11%	8%	14%	9%	8%	15%	8%	6%	9%	14%	10%	8%	15%	7%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%
Some other religion (specify)	2%	3%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	3%	7%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	8%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	4%	2%	<.5%	4%	5%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	<.5%	3%
No religious affiliation	30%	34%	26%	31%	32%	27%	51%	45%	27%	18%	30%	29%	33%	32%	29%	33%	28%	30%	32%	36%	31%	27%	39%	21%	31%	39%	20%	41%	20%	37%	20%	31%	37%	20%	41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	1%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	7%	2%	2%	1%	10%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	21%	22%	20%	20%	23%	19%	11%	13%	21%	27%	19%	38%	17%	14%	24%	13%	23%	19%	31%	18%	18%	24%	12%	31%	15%	12%	32%	13%	16%	13%	31%	20%	12%	30%	16%
No	20%	19%	22%	20%	18%	23%	17%	21%	19%	24%	21%	21%	19%	24%	18%	25%	18%	24%	18%	22%	20%	20%	23%	18%	19%	23%	17%	25%	15%	23%	18%	21%	23%	17%	21%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused	57%	56%	58%	58%	58%	57%	72%	65%	58%	48%	59%	39%	64%	60%	56%	61%	57%	54%	51%	59%	61%	54%	64%	50%	65%	64%	49%	59%	67%	62%	51%	57%	63%	51%	62%
[VOL] Refused	2%	3%	<.5%	1%	1%	1%	0%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<.5%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	3%	<.5%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	2%	1%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?
	Likely Electorate	State			Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Likely Electorate	MI	PA	WI	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Harris	Trump	Oth.	Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	31%	29%	33%	30%	36%	26%	35%	36%	32%	25%	30%	39%	34%	34%	29%	33%	27%	42%	33%	35%	32%	29%	32%	31%	22%	32%	30%	34%	20%	33%	28%	29%	33%	29%	23%
No	69%	71%	67%	70%	64%	74%	65%	64%	68%	75%	70%	61%	66%	66%	71%	67%	73%	58%	67%	65%	68%	71%	68%	69%	78%	68%	70%	66%	80%	67%	72%	71%	67%	71%	77%
Number of respondents	1,663	501	600	562	777	854	229	381	528	481	1,327	127	173	790	863	647	679	128	171	282	671	710	857	734	72	815	672	94	82	562	478	526	794	634	180
Percentage of total electorate	100%	33%	33%	33%	47%	51%	11%	20%	34%	32%	81%	8%	9%	37%	62%	30%	51%	6%	11%	16%	40%	45%	50%	46%	4%	48%	43%	5%	4%	34%	32%	30%	47%	41%	8%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin from Aug. 5 to 8, and 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Aug. 6 to 9.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 237,000 calls to nearly 118,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls in Michigan and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Aug. 5 to 8, 2024, and from Aug. 6 to 9, 2024, in Pennsylvania. In all, 1,973 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error among registered voters for each state poll is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin. Among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.2 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 90 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 13 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model) in Michigan, whether the respondent voted in 2020 in Wisconsin, and the voter file age of the respondent in Pennsylvania.

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• The average recalled 2020 vote choice of respondents to the last three New York Times/Siena College polls, including the results of this poll before the recalled vote weight, in Wisconsin.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.17 for registered voters and 1.26 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, 1.25 for registered voters and 1.28 for the likely electorate in Wisconsin, and 1.33 for registered voters and 1.46 for likely voters in Michigan.

For the sample of completed interviews, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.3 points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.5 points for the likely electorate in Michigan, plus or minus 4.5 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.6 points for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.7 points for both registered voters and the likely electorate in Wisconsin.The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.33 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, 1.3 for registered voters and 1.32 for the likely electorate in Wisconsin, and 1.46 for registered voters and 1.57 for the likely electorate in Michigan.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.