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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain 
disorganized.  This system is forecast to move generally westward to 
west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for gradual development late this week and into the 
weekend.  A tropical depression could form as the system moves near 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater 
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some gradual 
development is possible over the next couple of days if the system 
stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central 
America.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico 
late this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen