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Article
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Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure
Crop failures are potentially predictable much further in advance than previously thought possible. Using multiyear forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Anderson et al. show that crop failures can be predicted before the planting season even begins in some countries.
- Weston Anderson
- , Shraddhanand Shukla
- & Amy McNally
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Article
| Open Access
Oxime-functionalized anti-insecticide fabric reduces insecticide exposure through dermal and nasal routes, and prevents insecticide-induced neuromuscular-dysfunction and mortality
Exposition to insecticides can be dangerous. Here, authors developed an oxime-fabric body suit and facemask that chemically deactivate insecticides and prevent insecticide-induced lethal effects, offering an affordable solution for farmer safety.
- Mahendra K. Mohan
- , Ketan Thorat
- & Praveen Kumar Vemula
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Perspective
| Open Access
Alternative protein sources: science powered startups to fuel food innovation
Harnessing the potential of considerable food security efforts requires the ability to translate them into commercial applications. In this Perspective, the author explores the alternative protein source start-up landscape.
- Elena Lurie-Luke
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Article
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Absolute dating of the European Neolithic using the 5259 BC rapid 14C excursion
The Neolithic site of Dispilio, Northern Greece, is a pile-dwelling site with 900+ piles excavated. Here, the authors use the 5259 BC Miyake event to date the juniper tree-ring chronology constructed from these piles to 5140 BC, making it the first Neolithic site in the region to be absolutely calendar dated.
- Andrej Maczkowski
- , Charlotte Pearson
- & Albert Hafner
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Article
| Open Access
Effects of management practices on the ecosystem-service multifunctionality of temperate grasslands
Sustainable agricultural policies need to be practically assessed. Here, the authors assess how management practices affect ecosystem services in Swiss agricultural grasslands showing that organic farming has a lesser impact than the eco-scheme and the use as pasture or meadow.
- Franziska J. Richter
- , Matthias Suter
- & Valentin H. Klaus
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Article
| Open Access
An agricultural digital twin for mandarins demonstrates the potential for individualized agriculture
A digital twin represents a real world object using available data. Here, the authors develop a digital twin for mandaring orchards in Jeju island showing the value of individualized agriculture to predict fruit quality at tree level.
- Steven Kim
- & Seong Heo
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Article
| Open Access
Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns
Xu and colleagues find that the average trophic level of aquatic food items in the human diet is declining (from 3.42 to 3.18) because of the considerable increase in low-trophic level aquaculture species output relative to that of capture fisheries since 1976. Additionally they find that trade has contributed to increasing the availability and trophic level of aquatic foods in >60% of the world’s countries.
- Kangshun Zhao
- , Steven D. Gaines
- & Jun Xu
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Article
| Open Access
Sustainability benefits of transitioning from current diets to plant-based alternatives or whole-food diets in Sweden
The authors found that replacing animal source foods with plant-based alternatives would lead to substantial reductions in environmental impacts, while meeting most nutrition recommendations and being cost-competitive with the current average Swedish diet.
- Anne Charlotte Bunge
- , Rachel Mazac
- & Line Gordon
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Article
| Open Access
Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa
Here the authors demonstrate that cropland expansion following the historical trend together with closing the current exploitable yield gap by half or more across Africa reduces the continent’s reliance on land conversions and imports by 2050.
- Shen Yuan
- , Kazuki Saito
- & Patricio Grassini
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Article
| Open Access
Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy
This study demonstrates the energy use of US pump irrigation produced 12.6 million tonnes CO2e in 2018, with spatial variability modulated by water source and fuel choice. These county-level estimates can inform strategic irrigation expansion and emissions reduction efforts.
- Avery W. Driscoll
- , Richard T. Conant
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
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Article
| Open Access
Mapping the planet’s critical areas for biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people
This study shows that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of ten of nature’s contributions to people and could meet representation targets for 26,709 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. This finding supports recent commitments to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters by 2030.
- Rachel A. Neugarten
- , Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- & Amanda D. Rodewald
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Article
| Open Access
Diversifying crop rotation increases food production, reduces net greenhouse gas emissions and improves soil health
Food production systems need to balance yield and sustainability. Here, the authors conduct 6 years long crop diversification field experiments in the North China Plain, showing that diversifying cereal monocultures with cash crops and legumes cand improve yield and reduce GHG emissions.
- Xiaolin Yang
- , Jinran Xiong
- & Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
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Article
| Open Access
Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
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Comment
| Open AccessOne Health approach at the heart of the French Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government established a committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks. In this Comment, the authors describe the One Health approach taken by the committee, and outline its aims, composition, and initial actions.
- Thierry Lefrançois
- , Bruno Lina
- & Brigitte Autran
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Article
| Open Access
Deposition and water repelling of temperature-responsive nanopesticides on leaves
Weak adhesion is a common hindrance to efficient utilization of pesticides in agricultural applications. Here, authors demonstrate leaf-adhesive tebuconazole nanopesticides which can be water-dispersed via flash nanoprecipitation using temperature-responsive copolymers PDMAEMA-b-PCL as the carrier.
- Jie Tang
- , Xiaojing Tong
- & Yisheng Xu
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Article
| Open Access
The global and regional air quality impacts of dietary change
Food production, especially of animal products, is a major source of air pollutants. Here, the authors quantify the impacts dietary changes towards more plant-based diets could have for air quality, labour productivity, and human health.
- Marco Springmann
- , Rita Van Dingenen
- & Adrian Leip
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Article
| Open Access
Reducing risks of antibiotics to crop production requires land system intensification within thresholds
Crop intensification has increased agricultural production albeit with an increase in field antibiotic pollution. Here, Chen et al. project how antibiotic pollution undermines production and how intensification needs to be kept below a threshold.
- Fangkai Zhao
- , Lei Yang
- & Liding Chen
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Article
| Open Access
The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation
This work demonstrates how global abandoned cropland is an untapped land resource. If recultivated and reforested strategically, it can provide substantial carbon sequestration and food production potential to support our shared climate and food security goals.
- Qiming Zheng
- , Tim Ha
- & Lian Pin Koh
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Article
| Open Access
A global-temporal analysis on Phytophthora sojae resistance-gene efficacy
Rps genes are used to manage the major soybean pathogen Phytophthora sojae, which causes Phytophthora stem and root rot (PRR). Here, the authors show that widely used Rps genes are no longer effective for managing PRR in the United States, Canada and Argentina.
- Austin G. McCoy
- , Richard R. Belanger
- & Martin I. Chilvers
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Article
| Open Access
Earthworms contribute significantly to global food production
Earthworms contribute to plant growth. Here, Fonte et al. conduct a global meta-analysis and estimate that earthworms contribute to roughly 6.5% of global grain (maize, rice, wheat, barley) production and 2.3% of legume yields, equivalent to over 140 million metric tons annually.
- Steven J. Fonte
- , Marian Hsieh
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
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Article
| Open Access
Natural plant growth and development achieved in the IPK PhenoSphere by dynamic environment simulation
The PhenoSphere is a unique plant cultivation facility in which field-like environments can be simulated. Here, the authors find that a single season simulation is superior to an averaged season and to a climatized glasshouse cultivation to elicit field-like phenotypes evaluated in 11 maize lines.
- Marc C. Heuermann
- , Dominic Knoch
- & Thomas Altmann
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Article
| Open Access
Adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties increases agricultural production, consumption, and smallholder commercialization in West Africa
The adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties has the potential to build farmers’ climate resilience. Here, the authors show that adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties in West Africa benefits all households, with the biggest gains accruing to small-scale farmers.
- Martin Paul Jr Tabe-Ojong
- , Jourdain C. Lokossou
- & Hippolyte D. Affognon
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Article
| Open Access
A lignin-derived material improves plant nutrient bioavailability and growth through its metal chelating capacity
Biorefinery lignin waste has little value in the market. Here, Liu et al. find that water-soluble lignin, converted from sulfuric acid lignin, improves plant iron bioavailability and growth through a metal chelating capacity comparable to the metal chelator EDTA.
- Qiang Liu
- , Tsubasa Kawai
- & Baohai Li
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Article
| Open Access
Data fusion and multivariate analysis for food authenticity analysis
Using two different mass spectrometric platforms, authors demonstrate how metabolomic data fusion and multivariate analysis can be used to accurately identify the geographic origin and production method of salmon.
- Yunhe Hong
- , Nicholas Birse
- & Christopher T. Elliott
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Article
| Open Access
China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management
Population growth in China has increased the demand for food. Combining data-driven projections with field experiments, Luo et al. find that China can achieve self-sufficiency in maize production by 2030 implementation of optimal planting density and management without expanding cropping areas.
- Ning Luo
- , Qingfeng Meng
- & Pu Wang
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Article
| Open Access
Chromosome-level genome assembly and population genomic resource to accelerate orphan crop lablab breeding
Lablab is a legume native to Africa and cultivated throughout the tropics for food and forage; however, as an orphan crop, limited genomic resources hampers its genetic improvement. Here, an African-led South-North plant genome collaboration produces an improved genome assembly and population genomic resource to accelerate its breeding.
- Isaac Njaci
- , Bernice Waweru
- & Chris S. Jones
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Article
| Open Access
Impact of small farmers' access to improved seeds and deforestation in DR Congo
Availability of modern seed varieties in developing countries has had positive effects on households’ well-being. Here, the authors show that without support to maintain soil fertility, access to modern seed varieties increases primary forest clearance in DR Congo.
- Tanguy Bernard
- , Sylvie Lambert
- & Margaux Vinez
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Comment
| Open Access
A new Progressive Management Pathway for improving seaweed biosecurity
The rapid expansion and globalization of the seaweed production industry, combined with rising seawater temperatures and coastal eutrophication, has led to an increase in infectious diseases and pest outbreaks. Here, we propose a novel Progressive Management Pathway for improving Seaweed Biosecurity.
- Elizabeth J. Cottier-Cook
- , Jennefe P. Cabarubias
- & Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso
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Article
| Open Access
Air quality impacts of crop residue burning in India and mitigation alternatives
We quantify the air quality and health impacts of Indian crop residue burning and trace these impacts back to individual burning events by hour and district. We find that small interventions, such as burning one hour earlier in the day, may provide broad public health benefits
- Ruoyu Lan
- , Sebastian D. Eastham
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
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Article
| Open Access
Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America
Wheat breeding programmes improve yield by enhancing biotic and abiotic stress resistance. This study reveals that high temperature extremes adversely affect the productivity of new elite wheat breeding lines, and that future yield gains may be outpaced by the rapid advance of climate change.
- Tianyi Zhang
- , Yong He
- & Xiaoguang Yang
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Article
| Open Access
Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil
This research quantifies the role of zero deforestation policies and potential leakages in Brazilian soybean production, the third major driver of deforestation globally. Here the authors provide the first estimates of net global avoided soy-driven deforestation from zero-deforestation import restrictions and find that such restrictions could help avoid ~40% of deforestation for soy cultivation in Brazil and ~2% of global deforestation.
- Nelson Villoria
- , Rachael Garrett
- & Kimberly Carlson
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Article
| Open Access
Warming and redistribution of nitrogen inputs drive an increase in terrestrial nitrous oxide emission factor
Soil nitrogen isotopic composition is used to drive the IsoTONE model, which is constrained with measurements of tropospheric nitrous oxide isotopic composition. The model results reveal causes of rising mean global nitrous oxide emission factor.
- E. Harris
- , L. Yu
- & P. Rayner
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Article
| Open Access
Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation
Understanding emissions flow with trade matters for climate action. Trade-adjusted emission accounting would close the carbon loophole generated by trade for more effective climate action targeted at producers, consumers, and intermediary traders
- Adrian Foong
- , Prajal Pradhan
- & Jürgen P. Kropp
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Article
| Open Access
Options for reforming agricultural subsidies from health, climate, and economic perspectives
Springmann and Freund use an integrated modelling framework to show that coupling agricultural subsidies to producing foods with beneficial health and environmental characteristics can improve population health and lower greenhouse gas emissions without reducing economic welfare.
- M. Springmann
- & F. Freund
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Article
| Open Access
Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence
Flash droughts can have devastating impacts but are notoriously difficult to predict. This study identifies global hotspots of flash drought, driven by evaporative demand and precipitation deficits across varying geographic regions and crop-type, providing a framework for flash drought prediction.
- Jordan I. Christian
- , Jeffrey B. Basara
- & Robb M. Randall
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Article
| Open Access
Divergent abiotic spectral pathways unravel pathogen stress signals across species
Spectral screening can be used to monitor plant health. Here via airborne hyperspectral imaging of tree species, the authors show that spectral pathways associated with vascular pathogens can be distinguished from those linked to abiotic stress providing the potential for early detection of threatening diseases.
- P. J. Zarco-Tejada
- , T. Poblete
- & J. A. Navas-Cortes
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Article
| Open Access
Sustainable irrigation based on co-regulation of soil water supply and atmospheric evaporative demand
Irrigation is the most important use of water. A newly developed irrigation management scheme leads to a significant reduction in water use and increase in economic gains while maintaining crop yields, presenting opportunities for real-world impacts under current and future climate conditions.
- Jingwen Zhang
- , Kaiyu Guan
- & Grace L. Miner
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Article
| Open Access
Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales
Global demand for “blue food” is growing. In this quantitative synthesis, the authors analyse global seafood demand and project trends to 2050, finding considerable regional variation in the relationship between wealth and consumption.
- Rosamond L. Naylor
- , Avinash Kishore
- & Beatrice Crona
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Article
| Open Access
Global relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability
Crop diversification could be important for food security. Here, using methods from network science, the authors find that a positive relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability globally does not necessarily equate to improving nutritional stability in a given country.
- Charlie C. Nicholson
- , Benjamin F. Emery
- & Meredith T. Niles
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Article
| Open Access
Tempering of cocoa butter and chocolate using minor lipidic components
In chocolate production, a complicated tempering process is used to guide the crystallization of cocoa butter towards its most desirable polymorph, which gives the chocolate proper melting behavior, gloss, and snap—hallmarks of good quality chocolate. Here, the authors find that simply adding a specific phospholipid also directs crystallization towards this polymorph, producing chocolate with comparable microstructure and properties to tempered chocolate.
- Jay Chen
- , Saeed M. Ghazani
- & Alejandro G. Marangoni
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Article
| Open Access
Cross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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Article
| Open Access
Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil
Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus affecting humans and non-human primates (NHPs) with seasonal transmission. Here Hamlet et al. model the monthly occurrence of YF in humans and NHPs across Brazil and show that seasonality of agriculture is an important predictor of seasonal YF transmission.
- Arran Hamlet
- , Daniel Garkauskas Ramos
- & Neil M. Ferguson
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Article
| Open Access
Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China
China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
- Xiaofan Xing
- , Rong Wang
- & Siqing Xu
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Article
| Open Access
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
Quantifying land use change is critical in tackling global challenges related to food, climate and biodiversity. Here the authors show that land use change has affected 32 % of the global land area in six decades (1960- 2019) by combining multiple open datasets to create the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment +.
- Karina Winkler
- , Richard Fuchs
- & Martin Herold
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Article
| Open Access
Agricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions
Agricultural sectors receive US$600 billion per year in government support, providing incentives for GHG emission-intensive production. Here, the authors show that removing this support will not reduce global GHG emissions by much; rather it will need to be radically redirected to contribute to climate change mitigation.
- David Laborde
- , Abdullah Mamun
- & Rob Vos
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Matters Arising
| Open Access
Results from a biodiversity experiment fail to represent economic performance of semi-natural grasslands
- Bettina Tonn
- , Martin Komainda
- & Johannes Isselstein
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Matters Arising
| Open Access
Reply to: “Correlation between paddy rice growth and satellite-observed methane column abundance does not imply causation”
- Geli Zhang
- , Xiangming Xiao
- & Berrien Moore III
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Article
| Open Access
Direct allele introgression into pure chicken breeds using Sire Dam Surrogate (SDS) mating
Chicken are a biological model and an important agricultural animal. Here, the authors demonstrate that pure breed genome edited chicks can be produced for any chicken breed by direct mating of sterile surrogate hosts carrying donor genome edited germ cells.
- Maeve Ballantyne
- , Mark Woodcock
- & Mike J. McGrew
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Article
| Open Access
Calculation of external climate costs for food highlights inadequate pricing of animal products
Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.
- Maximilian Pieper
- , Amelie Michalke
- & Tobias Gaugler
Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs