Search Results (80)

The atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) generated by severe typhoons can facilitate the transfer of energy from the troposphere to the ionosphere, resulting in medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs). However, the complex three-dimensional nature of MSTIDs over oceanic regions presents challenges for detection using ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks. This study employs a hybrid approach combining space-based and ground-based techniques to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of ionospheric perturbations during Typhoon Doksuri. Plane maps depict significant plasma fluctuations extending outward from the typhoon’s gale wind zone on 24 July, reaching distances of up to 1800 km from the typhoon’s center, while space weather conditions remained relatively calm. These ionospheric perturbations propagated at velocities between 173 m/s and 337 m/s, consistent with AGW features and associated propagation speeds. Vertical mapping reveals that energy originating from Typhoon Doksuri propagated upward through a 500 km layer, resulting in substantial enhancements of plasma density and temperature in the topside ionosphere. Notably, the topside horizontal density gradient was 1.5 to 2 times greater than that observed in the bottom-side ionosphere. Both modeling and observational data convincingly demonstrate that the weak background winds favored the generation of AGWs associated with Typhoon Doksuri, influencing the development of distinct MSTIDs. Full article

The summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ)’s shifting in latitudes is one important characteristic of its variability and has great impact on the East Asian summer climate. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55), and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), this study investigates the relationship between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST (TNAT) anomalies and the summer meridional shift of the AWJ (MSJ) for the period of 1958–2020. Through the method of correlation analysis and regression analysis, we show that the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies in spring could induce a northward shift of the AWJ in the following summer. However, such a climatic effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the MSJ is unstable, exhibiting an evident interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. Further analysis reveals that this is related to a strengthened intensity of the spring TNAT anomalies in the most recent three decades. Compared to the early epoch (1958–1993), the stronger spring TNAT anomalies in the post epoch (1994–2020) could cause a stronger pan-tropical climate response until the following summer through a series of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Through Gill responses, the resultant more prominent cooling in the central Pacific in response to the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies induces a pan-tropical cooling in the upper troposphere, which weakens the poleward gradient of the tropospheric temperature over subtropical Asia. As a result, the AWJ shifts northward via a thermal wind effect. By contrast, in the early epoch, the spring TNAT anomalies are relatively weaker, inducing weaker pan-tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions and thus less change in the meridional shit of the summer AWJ. Our results highlight a strengthened lagged effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the following summer MSJ and have important implications for the seasonal climate predictability over Asia. Full article

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction remains a major operational challenge. Using multiple satellite datasets and a state-of-the-art reanalysis dataset, this study identifies developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the western North Pacific from June to November of 2000–2019 and conducts composite analyses of their water vapor budget components and relevant dynamic–thermodynamic parameters in the Lagrangian framework following three-day disturbance tracks. Both groups of disturbances have a similar initial 850 hPa synoptic-scale relative vorticity, while the water vapor budget of developing disturbances exhibits distinct stage-wise evolution characteristics from non-developing cases. Three days prior to TC genesis, developing cases are already associated with significantly higher total precipitable water (TPW), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), and precipitation, of which TPW is the most important parameter to differentiate two groups of disturbances. One day later, all the water vapor budget components (i.e., TPW, VIMFC, precipitation, and evaporation) strengthened, linked with the enhancement of the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices. A negative radial gradient of evaporation occurs, suggesting the beginning of the wind−evaporation feedback. On the day prior to TC genesis, the water vapor budget components, as well as the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices, continue to intensify, eventually leading to TC genesis. By contrast, non-developing disturbances are associated with a drier environment and weaker VIMFC, precipitation, and evaporation during the three-day evolution. All these factors are not favorable for the intensification of the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices; thus, the disturbances fail to upgrade to TCs. The results may shed light on TC genesis prediction. Full article

Satellite-based remote sensing enables the quantification of tropospheric NO₂ concentrations, offering insights into their environmental and health impacts. However, remote sensing measurements are often impeded by extensive cloud cover and precipitation. The scarcity of valid NO₂ observations in such meteorological conditions increases data gaps and thus hinders accurate characterization and variability of concentration across geographical regions. This study utilizes the Empirical Orthogonal Function interpolation in conjunction with the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and dense urban atmospheric observed station data to reconstruct continuous daily tropospheric NO₂ column concentration data in cloudy and rainy areas and thereby improve the accuracy of NO₂ concentration mapping in meteorologically obscured regions. Using Chengdu City as a case study, multiple datasets from satellite observations (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument, TROPOMI), near-surface NO₂ measurements, meteorology, and ancillary data are leveraged to train models. The results showed that the integration of reconstructed satellite observations with provincial and municipal control surface measurements enables the XGBoost model to achieve heightened predictive accuracy (R² = 0.87) and precision (RMSE = 5.36 μg/m³). Spatially, this approach effectively mitigates the problem of missing values in estimation results due to absent satellite data while simultaneously ensuring increased consistency with ground monitoring station data, yielding images with more continuous and refined details. These results underscore the potential for reconstructing satellite remote sensing information and combining it with dense ground observations to greatly improve NO₂ mapping in cloudy and rainy areas. Full article

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO’s impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient. Full article

This study examines the heavy rainfall event that occurred in the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan, on 9–10 August 2021, resulting from an extra-tropical cyclone that developed from Typhoon#9 (EC9). The objective of this study is to elucidate the relationship between moisture transport and heavy rainfall and to verify the role of EC9. The authors created intensive hourly precipitation data over the Aomori Prefecture and analyzed them together with moisture fields. In most locations where the landslide disaster occurred, there were two precipitation peaks: at 9 UTC and 18 UTC on 9 August. The wind shear was strong from the lower to the upper troposphere with easterly winds in the lower troposphere and warm moist air from south for the first peak. A strong horizontal gradient of equivalent potential temperature, a northerly in lower troposphere, and moisture convergence over Shimokita Peninsula indicate the existence of the stationary front for the latter peak (18 UTC). The heavy precipitation and moisture convergence that caused the Shimokita event were identified by the stationary front of EC9 around the latter peak (15 UTC of 9th–06 UTC of 10 August). The precipitation distribution, which has a precipitation peak northeast of the EC center, is a typical typhoon-turned extratropical cyclone (EC) precipitation distribution. Full article

This study investigated the relationship between the summer Arctic Dipole (AD) anomaly and the climatic variability in Eurasia during the period 1979–2021. It was found that the summer AD anomaly experienced a phase shift from frequent negative phases before 2006 to positive phases after 2007, as manifested by the shift of the center of the positive (negative) AD anomaly to Greenland (in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Seas) in the more recent period (2007–2021) from the vicinity of the Kara Sea and Laptev Sea (the Canadian archipelago) in the earlier period (1979–2006). Before the mid-2000s, a wave train was shown in the middle troposphere of Eurasia, and this teleconnection pattern of atmospheric circulation could have resulted in local warm and wet (cool and dry) anomalies over northern Russia and East Asia (Western Europe and the Far east). Since the mid-2000s, the wave train has experienced a notable adjustment that was conducive to East Asian and Arctic cooling, displaying anticyclonic anomalies around northern Eurasia and two cyclonic anomalies centered near the Arctic and East Asia. The presence of a cold Arctic anomaly was found to enhance westerly winds at high latitudes by modulating the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) and impeding the southward propagation of cold Arctic air. Additionally, the warmth of northern Eurasia may have also resulted in a reduction in the MTG between northern Eurasia and the mid-lower latitudes, favoring a weakening of zonal winds over the central region of Eurasia. The increased upper-level westerly winds over southern East Asia implied a weakened East Asian Summer Monsoon, which inhibited precipitation in northeast China. Full article

The mechanism for the paradox of global warming and successive cold winters in mid-latitudes remains controversial. In this study, the connection between Arctic sea ice (ASI) loss and frequent cold air outbreaks in eastern Continental United States (CONUS) is explored. Two distinct periods of high and low ASI (hereafter high- and low-ice phases) are identified for comparative study. It is demonstrated that cold air outbreaks occur more frequently during the low-ice phase compared to that during the high-ice phase. The polar vortex is weakened and shifted southward during the low-ice phase. Correspondingly, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which represents the mid-tropospheric circulation, shows a clear negative Arctic Oscillation-like pattern in the low-ice phase. Specifically, positive GPH anomalies in the Arctic region with two centers, respectively located over Greenland and the Barents Sea, significantly weaken the low-pressure system centered around the Baffin Island, and enhance Ural blocking in the low-ice phase. Meanwhile, the high ridge extending from Alaska to the west coast of North America further intensifies, while the low trough over eastern CONUS deepens. As a result, the atmospheric circulation in North America becomes more conductive to frigid Arctic air outbreaks. It is concluded that the ASI loss contributes to more cold air outbreaks in winter in eastern CONUS through the polar vortex weakening with southward displacement of the polar vortex edge, which lead to the weakening of the meridional potential vorticity gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitude and thus are conducive to the strengthening and long-term maintenance of the blocking high. Full article

The dryline, often associated with the development of severe storms in the Southern Great Plains of the United States of America, is a boundary layer phenomenon that occurs when a warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico meets a hot and dry air mass from the southwest desert area. An accurate knowledge of the water vapor spatio-temporal variability in the lower part of the atmosphere is crucial for a better understanding of the evolution of the dryline. The tropospheric refractivity, directly related to water vapor content, is a proxy for the water vapor content of the troposphere. It has already been demonstrated that the refractivity and the refractivity vertical gradient can be jointly estimated from radar phase measurements. In fact, it has been shown that using kriging interpolation techniques, accurate refractivity maps within the coverage area of the radar can be obtained with high temporal resolution. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the time series of radar-based refractivity maps obtained during a dryline that occurred on the afternoon of 22 May 2002 during the International $H_{2}O$ Project ($IHOP\_2002$) is presented. Comparisons between the time series of radar refractivity maps, obtained with the NCAR S-Pol radar, and the refractivity measurements derived from automatic ground-based weather stations and the AERI instrument, placed at different locations within the coverage area of the NCAR S-Pol radar, demonstrate the accuracy of radar refractivity estimates even for highly variable conditions, both in time and space, in the troposphere. Correlation coefficients higher than 0.95 are obtained in all weather station locations. Regarding the RMSE, errors less than 6 N-units are obtained for all cases, being even as low as 2.92 N-units at some locations. Full article

Stratospheric dynamics are strongly affected by the absorption/emission of radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere and Rossby waves that propagate upward from the troposphere, perturbing the zonal flow. Reduced order models of stratospheric wave–zonal interactions, which parameterize these effects, have been used to study interannual variability in stratospheric zonal winds and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. These models are most sensitive to two main parameters: $\Lambda$, forcing the mean radiative zonal wind gradient, and h, a perturbation parameter representing the effect of Rossby waves. We take one such reduced order model with 20 years of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data and estimate $\Lambda$ and h using both a particle filter and an ensemble smoother to investigate if the highly-simplified model can accurately reproduce the averaged reanalysis data and which parameter properties may be required to do so. We find that by allowing additional complexity via an unparameterized $\Lambda \left(t\right)$, the model output can closely match the reanalysis data while maintaining behavior consistent with the dynamical properties of the reduced-order model. Furthermore, our analysis shows physical signatures in the parameter estimates around known SSW events. This work provides a data-driven examination of these important parameters representing fundamental stratospheric processes through the lens and tractability of a reduced order model, shown to be physically representative of the relevant atmospheric dynamics. Full article

From the raw measurements at a single Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ground-based station, the Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and the tropospheric gradient can be estimated. In order to assimilate such data into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, the observation operator must be developed. Our previously developed tropospheric gradient operator is based on a linear combination of tropospheric delays and, therefore, is difficult to implement into NWP Data Assimilation (DA) systems. In this technical note, we develop a fast observation operator. This observation operator is based on an integral expression which contains the north–south and east–west horizontal gradients of refractivity. We run a numerical weather model (the horizontal resolution is 10 km) and show that for stations located in central Europe and in the warm season, the root-mean-square deviation between the tropospheric gradients calculated by the fast and original approach is about 0.15 mm. This deviation is regarded acceptable for assimilation since the typical root-mean-square deviation between observed and forward modelled tropospheric gradients is about 0.5 mm. We then implement the developed operator in our experimental DA system and test the proposed approach. In particular, we analyze the impact of the assimilation on the refractivity field. The developed tropospheric gradient operator, together with its tangent linear and adjoint version, is freely available (Fortran code) and ready to be implemented into NWP DA systems. Full article

The predominant climatological wind regime in summer over the Greek Seas and especially over the Aegean Sea is undoubtedly the Etesian winds system, very well known since the time of the ancient Greeks, who first identified and described its main characteristics. The Etesian winds have been under continuous and intensive research since early 1900s, and numerous papers have been published, which have revealed all the secrets associated with the physical mechanisms responsible for their creation and maintenance. The ordinary synoptic situation, which is closely associated with the appearance of spells of Etesian winds outbreaks over the Aegean Sea, refers to cases in which the Subtropical Jet Stream (SJS) is situated over the Greek mainland. Then the frontal surfaces associated with the Polar Jet Stream (PJS), or a polar jet streak, passing through Greece from the north can cause severe weather in northern Greece as far south as Larisa (39.39° N, 22.26° E). Precipitation does not usually occur south of Larisa, because the SJS constitutes a barrier to the southward extension of the upper half of the frontal surface. In this case, cold advection occurs in the lower troposphere, resulting in a drop in temperatures even in southern Greece, due to the establishment of an Etesian winds outbreak. Thereafter, these north-easterly winds persist for a long time, weakening gradually, following the variation of the pressure gradient due to the combination of the mobile dynamic anticyclone positioned over the Balkans, after the passage of the cold front and the permanent Cyprus surface low. The main goal of this article is to investigate how much the case of a time period around 9 July 2022 differs from the conceptual model mentioned above, as deep convection occurred over all of Greece over three successive days, breaking the Etesian winds regime and defeating the low tropospheric stability usually accompanying this wind regime. Full article

Baroclinic instability is one of the main mechanisms for the formation of synoptic scale systems. Previous studies examined the exponential growth of small perturbations for a stably stratified troposphere in the case of a constant meridional temperature gradient ignoring the stratosphere (Eady’s model). However, since stratospheric flow also affects to some extent the motions in the troposphere, in this work we investigate the effect of stratospheric wind shear on baroclinic instability using the tools of Generalized Stability Theory (GST). GST is a linear stability theory that addresses both the exponential growth of perturbations that is pertinent in the large time asymptotic limit and the transient growth of perturbations at finite time. The optimal initial perturbations leading to the largest growth over a specified time interval are calculated for three main cases of stratospheric shear: positive, zero and negative shear over the stratosphere. It is found that the inclusion of stratospheric shear in all three cases decreases perturbation growth and influences the scale of the structures that will dominate the flow. For optimizing times of the order of a week, the development of systems with larger spatial scale compared to the prediction of the Eady model is expected, while for optimizing times of the order of a day, smaller scale systems are found to develop. Full article

The advection fog characteristics at Qingdao Liuting International Airport during 2000–2022 are studied based on surface observation, sounding and reanalysis data. Surface observation data show that there were two types of fog: evaporation fog (EF) dominated by northwesterly wind in winter and cooling fog (CF) dominated by southeasterly wind in spring and summer. CF is thicker than EF due to different planetary boundary layer (PBL) structures. For EF, the middle and low troposphere are affected by dry and cold air, while CF is affected by warm and moist air below 850 hPa. When EF formed, downdrafts and a positive vertical gradient of the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature indicate stable PBL, surface heat flux is upward from sea to atmosphere and surface wind diverges near the air–sea interface. When CF formed, these characteristics are reversed. Fog is significantly affected by sea–land–atmosphere interactions. The moisture source is mainly from surface fluxes released by the Yellow Sea in the case of EF, while it is from moist air at low latitudes and local land transpiration in the case of CF. The difference in temperature between the sea surface and surface air changes from the range of 0–8 K for EF but from −4–0 K for CF. Full article

The composition of marine aerosol is quite complex, and its sources are diverse. Across the East China Sea (ECS) and the Yellow Sea (YS), multi-dimensional analysis of marine aerosols was conducted. The characteristics of carbonaceous aerosols and gaseous pollutants were explored through in situ ship-based observation, MERRA-2 reanalysis datasets and TROPOMI data from Sentinel-5P satellite. Black carbon (BC)’s average concentration is 1.35 ± 0.78 μg/m³, with high-value BC observed during the cruise. Through HYSPLIT trajectory analysis, sources of BC were from the northern Eurasian continent, the Shandong Peninsula, the ECS and Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWPO). The transport of marine sources like ship emissions cannot be ignored. According to the absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE), BC originates from biomass burning (BB) in the shortwave band (~370 nm) and from fossil fuel combustion in the longwave band (~660 nm). Organic carbon (OC), sulfate (SO₄²⁻) and BC report higher Angstrom exponent (AE) while dust and sea salt reveal lower AE, which can be utilized to classify the aerosols as being fine- or coarse-mode, respectively. OC has the highest AE (ECS: 1.98, YS: 2.01), indicating that anthropogenic activities could be a significant source. The process of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) mixed with sea salt could contribute to the decline in BBA’s AE. Ship emissions may affect the distribution of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in the ECS, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tropospheric NO₂ over the YS has the highest value (up to 12 × 10¹⁵ molec/cm²). Stratospheric NO₂ has a ladder-like distribution from north to south, and the variation gradient was lower than that in the troposphere. Carbon monoxide (CO) accumulates in the south and east of the ECS and the east of the YS, while the variation over the eastern YS is relatively frequent. Seas near the Korean Peninsula have extremely high CO concentration (up to 1.35 × 10¹⁷ molec/cm²). Full article