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Keywords = Logiya watershed

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25 pages, 7820 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Yield from the Logiya Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia
by Nura Boru Jilo, Bogale Gebremariam, Arus Edo Harka, Gezahegn Weldu Woldemariam and Fiseha Behulu
Hydrology 2019, 6(3), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030081 - 11 Sep 2019
Cited by 34 | Viewed by 6429
Abstract
It is anticipated that climate change will impact sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed in the lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Here, we used the coordinated [...] Read more.
It is anticipated that climate change will impact sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed in the lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Here, we used the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa data outputs of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future scenarios of climate change were analyzed in two-time frames: 2020–2049 (2030s) and 2050–2079 (2060s). Both time frames were analyzed using both RCP scenarios from the baseline period (1971–2000). A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to simulate the hydrological and the sedimentological responses to climate change. The model performance was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The results of the calibration and the validation of the sediment yield R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.83, 0.79, and −23.4 and 0.85, 0.76, and −25.0, respectively. The results of downscaled precipitation, temperature, and estimated evapotranspiration increased in both emission scenarios. These climate variable increments were expected to result in intensifications in the mean annual sediment yield of 4.42% and 8.08% for RCP4.5 and 7.19% and 10.79% for RCP8.5 by the 2030s and the 2060s, respectively. Full article
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Figure 1

Figure 1
<p>Location of the Logiya watershed, meteorological and flow gauging stations.</p> Full article ">Figure 2
<p>Mean monthly precipitation and temperature (Tmax and Tmin) selected stations in the study area (1988–2016).</p> Full article ">Figure 3
<p>Soil types (<b>a</b>) and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) classes (<b>b</b>) in Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 4
<p>Sediment rating curve of the Logiya River at the Logiya gauge station.</p> Full article ">Figure 5
<p>Historical trends of the annual precipitation (<b>a</b>), temperature maximum (Tmax) (<b>b</b>), temperature minimum (Tmin) (<b>c</b>), and sediment yield (<b>d</b>) from 1971–2000 in the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 5 Cont.
<p>Historical trends of the annual precipitation (<b>a</b>), temperature maximum (Tmax) (<b>b</b>), temperature minimum (Tmin) (<b>c</b>), and sediment yield (<b>d</b>) from 1971–2000 in the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 6
<p>Observed and downscaled average monthly maximum temperature (<b>a</b>), minimum temperature (<b>b</b>), and precipitation (<b>c</b>) of observed vs. bias-corrected and un-corrected RCP time series (1988–2016) of the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 7
<p>Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model calibration (<b>a</b>) and validation (<b>b</b>) for streamflow at the monthly time scale during 1992–1999 and 2000–2005, respectively.</p> Full article ">Figure 8
<p>SWAT model calibration (<b>a</b>) and validation (<b>b</b>) for sediment yield at the monthly time scale during 1992–1999 and 2000–2005 respectively.</p> Full article ">Figure 9
<p>Mean monthly observed and simulated sediment load (1992–2005).</p> Full article ">Figure 10
<p>Spatial map of the observed sediment yield.</p> Full article ">Figure 11
<p>Spatial map of the annual sediment yield (<b>a</b>) in 2030s RCP4.5 (<b>b</b>) in 2030s RCP8.5 (<b>c</b>) in 2060s RCP4.5 and (<b>d</b>) in 2060s RCP8.5 in the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 12
<p>Projected change of mean monthly sediment yield (<b>a</b>) in the 2030s (<b>b</b>) in the 2060s from the baseline period in the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">Figure 13
<p>Mean monthly sediment yield in the 2030s (<b>a</b>) and the 2060s (<b>b</b>) projected at the outlet of the Logiya watershed.</p> Full article ">
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