FinTech, Volume 3, Issue 2 (June 2024) – 5 articles

This paper examines the correlation between three prospective investing options: the Bitcoin cryptocurrency price, gold, and the Dow Jones stock index. The main research question is whether there is a causal effect of gold and the DWJ on Bitcoin and how this effect varies on time. The study begins with a background analysis that explains the definitions and operation of cryptocurrencies, followed by a brief overview of gold and its derivatives. In addition, a historical review of stock markets is provided, with a focus on the Dow Jones index. Then, a literature review follows. Daily data from three separate periods are used, each spanning four years. The first period, running from October 2014 to September 2018, provides an overview of the introduction of official cryptocurrency price data. The second period, running from Oct 2018 to Sept 2022, captures more recent trends preceding COVID-19. The third period, from January 2020 to December 2023, is the whole COVID-19 period with the initiation, embedded, and terminal phases. Classical inductive statistical methods (descriptive, correlations, multiple linear regression) as well as time series analysis methods (autocorrelation, cross-correlation, Granger causality tests, and ARIMA modeling) are used to analyze the data. Rigorous testing for autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and homoskedasticity is performed on the estimated models. The results show a correlation of Bitcoin with gold and the DWJ. This correlation varies over time, as in the first period the correlation mainly concerns the DWJ and in the second it mainly concerns gold. By using ARIMA models, it was possible to make a forecast in a time horizon of a few days. In addition, the structure of the forecasting mechanism of gold and DWJ on Bitcoin seems to have changed during the COVID-19 crisis. The findings suggest that future research should encompass a broader dataset, facilitating comprehensive comparisons and enhancing the reliability of the conclusions drawn. Full article

This paper explores the economic trends and identifies speculative bubbles within the emerging metaverse, based on the specific example of Decentraland, which is represented by its underlying native token MANA.For comparability, we consider three further tokens: SAND, ETH, and BTC.The study shows price prediction and provides further insight into bubble behavior to provide a deeper insight into the real trend and situation of the metaverse. When comparing all considered tokens, evidence of comovement and positive as well as negative bubbles is identified. This paper makes use of proven modeling techniques, such as SARIMA, for price prediction and LPPLS for financial bubble identification, visualization, and time stamping. Full article

In this paper, we study the networks of financial institutions using textual data (i.e., news). We draw knowledge graphs after the textual data has been processed via various natural language processing and embedding methods, including use of the most recent version of ChatGPT (via OpenAI api). Our final graphs represent bank networks and further shed light on the systemic risk of the financial institutions. Financial news reflects live how financial institutions are connected, via graphs which provide information on conditional dependencies among the financial institutions. Our results show that in the year 2016, the chosen 22 top U.S. financial firms are not closely connected and, hence, present no systemic risk. Full article

Purpose: FinTech research has grown rapidly, but few studies have measured the levels of scientific collaboration among authors, institutions, and nations. This study aimed to reveal the status and levels of scientific collaboration in this field. The results will help scholars to combine their knowledge and resources to generate new ideas that may not have been possible if they worked alone and enable them to work more efficiently, resulting in higher-quality results for all parties. Design/methodology/approach: Research papers in the FinTech field indexed in the Web of Science databases from 1999 to 2022 were included in the research dataset. Using R-bibliometrix and VOS viewer (Visualisation of Similarities viewer), co-authorship networks were drawn. Additionally, some measures of the co-authorship network were assessed, such as the links, total link strength, total number of articles, total citations, normalized total citations, average year of publication, average citations, and average normalized normal citations. Beyond bibliometric analyses, this research gathers other statistics for analysis to gain further insights. Result: A total of 1792 publications were identified, and a number of these revealed an increase in the forms of collaboration, including collaboration among authors and institutions. Three lists of the most collaborative authors, institutions, and countries were compiled. The top authors, affiliations, and countries were ranked according to their total links, citations, average citations, and annual normalized citations. There were six distinct clusters of collaboration among authors, thirteen among affiliations, and eleven among countries. In terms of author collaborations, the links and total link strength had three nodes and four nodes, respectively. John Goodell, Chi-Chuan Le, and Shaen Corbet were the top three collaborative authors. In terms of affiliations, the two strength attributes were 8 and 12 nodes, with Sydney University, Hong Kong University, and the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics topping the list. In terms of collaboration among countries, these two attributes had 14 and 34 nodes. Three of the most collaborative countries were England, the People’s Republic of China, and the United States. Originality/value: In contrast with previous systematic literature reviews, this study quantitatively examines the collaboration status in the FinTech field on three levels: authors, affiliations, and countries. Full article

Cryptocurrency forensics have become standard tools for law enforcement. Their basic idea is to deanonymise cryptocurrency transactions to identify the people behind them. Cryptocurrency deanonymisation techniques are often based on premises that largely remain implicit, especially in legal practice. On the one hand, this implicitness complicates investigations. On the other hand, it can have far-reaching consequences for the rights of those affected. Argumentation schemes could remedy this untenable situation by rendering the underlying premises more transparent. Additionally, they can aid in critically evaluating the probative value of any results obtained by cryptocurrency deanonymisation techniques. In the argumentation theory and AI community, argumentation schemes are influential as they state the implicit premises for different types of arguments. Through their critical questions, they aid the argumentation participants in critically evaluating arguments. We specialise the notion of argumentation schemes to legal reasoning about cryptocurrency deanonymisation. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of the resulting schemes through an exemplary real-world case. Ultimately, we envision that using our schemes in legal practice can solidify the evidential value of blockchain investigations, as well as uncover and help to address uncertainty in the underlying premises—thus contributing to protecting the rights of those affected by cryptocurrency forensics. Full article