Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	192.0	18	4	30.3%	4.6%	2.39	2.49	5.9	6.5	85.8	128.6	192.0	18	4	30.3%	4.6%	2.39	2.49	5.9	6.5	85.8	128.6
2	Seth Lugo	206.2	16	9	21.7%	5.7%	3.00	3.25	4.7	5.9	68.4	97.2	206.2	16	9	21.7%	5.7%	3.00	3.25	4.7	5.9	68.4	97.2
3	Cole Ragans	186.1	11	9	29.3%	8.8%	3.14	2.99	4.9	4.9	61.5	92.6	186.1	11	9	29.3%	8.8%	3.14	2.99	4.9	4.9	61.5	92.6
4	Logan Gilbert	208.2	9	12	27.4%	4.6%	3.23	3.27	4.1	3.9	60.3	88.9	208.2	9	12	27.4%	4.6%	3.23	3.27	4.1	3.9	60.3	88.9
5	Corbin Burnes	194.1	15	9	23.1%	6.1%	2.92	3.55	3.7	4.4	67.3	87.8	194.1	15	9	23.1%	6.1%	2.92	3.55	3.7	4.4	67.3	87.8
6	Framber Valdez	176.1	15	7	24.0%	7.8%	2.91	3.25	3.6	5.1	63.1	87.6	176.1	15	7	24.0%	7.8%	2.91	3.25	3.6	5.1	63.1	87.6
7	George Kirby	191.0	14	11	23.0%	3.0%	3.53	3.26	4.2	3.1	52.4	78.7	191.0	14	11	23.0%	3.0%	3.53	3.26	4.2	3.1	52.4	78.7
8	Bryce Miller	180.1	12	8	24.3%	6.4%	2.94	3.58	2.8	4.5	60.3	78.6	180.1	12	8	24.3%	6.4%	2.94	3.58	2.8	4.5	60.3	78.6
9	Tanner Houck	178.2	9	10	20.7%	6.5%	3.12	3.32	3.9	4.2	51.7	75.2	178.2	9	10	20.7%	6.5%	3.12	3.32	3.9	4.2	51.7	75.2
10	Garrett Crochet	146.0	6	12	35.1%	5.5%	3.58	2.69	4.7	3.1	41.9	71.3	146.0	6	12	35.1%	5.5%	3.58	2.69	4.7	3.1	41.9	71.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	192.0	18	4	30.3%	4.6%	2.39	2.49	5.9	6.5	85.8	128.6	192.0	18	4	30.3%	4.6%	2.39	2.49	5.9	6.5	85.8	128.6
2	Seth Lugo	206.2	16	9	21.7%	5.7%	3.00	3.25	4.7	5.9	68.4	97.2	206.2	16	9	21.7%	5.7%	3.00	3.25	4.7	5.9	68.4	97.2
3	Cole Ragans	186.1	11	9	29.3%	8.8%	3.14	2.99	4.9	4.9	61.5	92.6	186.1	11	9	29.3%	8.8%	3.14	2.99	4.9	4.9	61.5	92.6
4	Logan Gilbert	208.2	9	12	27.4%	4.6%	3.23	3.27	4.1	3.9	60.3	88.9	208.2	9	12	27.4%	4.6%	3.23	3.27	4.1	3.9	60.3	88.9
5	Corbin Burnes	194.1	15	9	23.1%	6.1%	2.92	3.55	3.7	4.4	67.3	87.8	194.1	15	9	23.1%	6.1%	2.92	3.55	3.7	4.4	67.3	87.8
6	Framber Valdez	176.1	15	7	24.0%	7.8%	2.91	3.25	3.6	5.1	63.1	87.6	176.1	15	7	24.0%	7.8%	2.91	3.25	3.6	5.1	63.1	87.6
7	George Kirby	191.0	14	11	23.0%	3.0%	3.53	3.26	4.2	3.1	52.4	78.7	191.0	14	11	23.0%	3.0%	3.53	3.26	4.2	3.1	52.4	78.7
8	Bryce Miller	180.1	12	8	24.3%	6.4%	2.94	3.58	2.8	4.5	60.3	78.6	180.1	12	8	24.3%	6.4%	2.94	3.58	2.8	4.5	60.3	78.6
9	Tanner Houck	178.2	9	10	20.7%	6.5%	3.12	3.32	3.9	4.2	51.7	75.2	178.2	9	10	20.7%	6.5%	3.12	3.32	3.9	4.2	51.7	75.2
10	Garrett Crochet	146.0	6	12	35.1%	5.5%	3.58	2.69	4.7	3.1	41.9	71.3	146.0	6	12	35.1%	5.5%	3.58	2.69	4.7	3.1	41.9	71.3

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	177.2	18	3	32.1%	5.6%	2.38	2.09	6.4	7.0	82.3	130.0	177.2	18	3	32.1%	5.6%	2.38	2.09	6.4	7.0	82.3	130.0
2	Zack Wheeler	200.0	16	7	28.5%	6.6%	2.57	3.13	5.4	7.0	81.4	111.9	200.0	16	7	28.5%	6.6%	2.57	3.13	5.4	7.0	81.4	111.9
3	Paul Skenes	133.0	11	3	33.1%	6.2%	1.96	2.44	4.3	5.7	65.5	95.9	133.0	11	3	33.1%	6.2%	1.96	2.44	4.3	5.7	65.5	95.9
4	Logan Webb	204.2	13	10	20.5%	5.9%	3.47	2.95	4.4	4.1	53.5	88.9	204.2	13	10	20.5%	5.9%	3.47	2.95	4.4	4.1	53.5	88.9
5	Dylan Cease	189.1	14	11	29.4%	8.5%	3.47	3.10	4.8	3.8	58.1	87.6	189.1	14	11	29.4%	8.5%	3.47	3.10	4.8	3.8	58.1	87.6
6	Michael King	173.2	13	9	27.7%	8.7%	2.95	3.33	3.9	3.7	62.9	85.4	173.2	13	9	27.7%	8.7%	2.95	3.33	3.9	3.7	62.9	85.4
7	Reynaldo López	135.2	8	5	27.3%	7.7%	1.99	2.92	3.5	5.9	60.6	84.5	135.2	8	5	27.3%	7.7%	1.99	2.92	3.5	5.9	60.6	84.5
8	Cristopher Sánchez	181.2	11	9	20.3%	5.8%	3.32	3.00	4.7	4.0	50.1	80.5	181.2	11	9	20.3%	5.8%	3.32	3.00	4.7	4.0	50.1	80.5
9	Shota Imanaga	173.1	15	3	25.1%	4.0%	2.91	3.72	3.0	4.3	63.1	78.1	173.1	15	3	25.1%	4.0%	2.91	3.72	3.0	4.3	63.1	78.1
10	Max Fried	174.1	11	10	23.2%	8.0%	3.25	3.33	3.4	4.0	51.8	74.4	174.1	11	10	23.2%	8.0%	3.25	3.33	3.4	4.0	51.8	74.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	177.2	18	3	32.1%	5.6%	2.38	2.09	6.4	7.0	82.3	130.0	177.2	18	3	32.1%	5.6%	2.38	2.09	6.4	7.0	82.3	130.0
2	Zack Wheeler	200.0	16	7	28.5%	6.6%	2.57	3.13	5.4	7.0	81.4	111.9	200.0	16	7	28.5%	6.6%	2.57	3.13	5.4	7.0	81.4	111.9
3	Paul Skenes	133.0	11	3	33.1%	6.2%	1.96	2.44	4.3	5.7	65.5	95.9	133.0	11	3	33.1%	6.2%	1.96	2.44	4.3	5.7	65.5	95.9
4	Logan Webb	204.2	13	10	20.5%	5.9%	3.47	2.95	4.4	4.1	53.5	88.9	204.2	13	10	20.5%	5.9%	3.47	2.95	4.4	4.1	53.5	88.9
5	Dylan Cease	189.1	14	11	29.4%	8.5%	3.47	3.10	4.8	3.8	58.1	87.6	189.1	14	11	29.4%	8.5%	3.47	3.10	4.8	3.8	58.1	87.6
6	Michael King	173.2	13	9	27.7%	8.7%	2.95	3.33	3.9	3.7	62.9	85.4	173.2	13	9	27.7%	8.7%	2.95	3.33	3.9	3.7	62.9	85.4
7	Reynaldo López	135.2	8	5	27.3%	7.7%	1.99	2.92	3.5	5.9	60.6	84.5	135.2	8	5	27.3%	7.7%	1.99	2.92	3.5	5.9	60.6	84.5
8	Cristopher Sánchez	181.2	11	9	20.3%	5.8%	3.32	3.00	4.7	4.0	50.1	80.5	181.2	11	9	20.3%	5.8%	3.32	3.00	4.7	4.0	50.1	80.5
9	Shota Imanaga	173.1	15	3	25.1%	4.0%	2.91	3.72	3.0	4.3	63.1	78.1	173.1	15	3	25.1%	4.0%	2.91	3.72	3.0	4.3	63.1	78.1
10	Max Fried	174.1	11	10	23.2%	8.0%	3.25	3.33	3.4	4.0	51.8	74.4	174.1	11	10	23.2%	8.0%	3.25	3.33	3.4	4.0	51.8	74.4

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG