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          Fantasy baseball Friday advice: Minnesota has edge in twin bill

          Red-hot Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober is one of Friday's best options. Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Aug 9, 2024, 07:56 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET , and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          AL Central showdown, times two

          The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins, the top two teams in the American League Central standings and third and fourth (Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees) in the league as a whole, begin a four-game showdown at Target Field with a Friday doubleheader. It's a busy time on both of their schedules, as it begins a stretch of 20 games over 20 days for the Guardians, including a pair of doubleheaders (also Aug. 26), and 14 games over 13 days without a day off for the Twins.

          In fantasy, doubleheaders can be a gold mine of statistical goodness. Teams' best hitters often get a pair of starts and sometimes as many as (or more than) 10 trips to the plate. Closers have double the opportunity for saves, and starting pitchers are often tasked with working deeper into games to preserve the bullpens.

          The highlight of Friday's doubleheader is red-hot Twins righty Bailey Ober, who will start one of the two games. He enters riding the game's longest active streak of quality starts (8), during which time he has a 1.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 31.0% strikeout rate, though his 3.19 FIP indicates he has been a bit more fortunate than those raw numbers indicate. As the Guardians rank sixth-worst in runs per game since the All-Star break (4.00), and project as a slightly below-average offensive team, Ober understandably shapes up as one of the day's best starting options.

          Twins hitters, too, might reap a significant advantage in the doubleheader, considering the state of the Guardians' rotation. Newly acquired Alex Cobb will be activated off the injured list to start one of the two games, but he threw only 69 pitches in his most recent minor league rehabilitation start and will probably be limited in terms of workload. Tanner Bibee (shoulder) is trending towards a Sunday return, Logan Allen would be pitching on three days of rest and Matthew Boyd made a rehab start on Wednesday and is likely looking at activation next week. Joey Cantillo, who pitched last Saturday, is an option, or the team could summon Triston McKenzie, who had a dazzling, six-shutout-innings, 11-strikeout most recent start for Triple-A Columbus last Saturday.

          Whomever gets the nod, the Guardians will probably lean more heavily than usual upon their bullpen in both games, which would normally be good news for their team that leads the majors in relief ERA (2.68). In this case, Guardians relievers have totaled the most innings in baseball so far this month (31 1/3), entering Thursday's play, and their 5.46 ERA is seventh-worst.

          While the Twins do mix and match with their lineup, the likelihood that Willi Castro, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton (if healthy) will get starts in both games makes all three clear fantasy starters for Friday.

          For the Twins, Louie Varland, who pitched poorly in his earlier stint with the team this season, will get the start in the other game. Varland has pitched well of late for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 1.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 28.0% strikeout rate in his past six starts there. He's too risky to be a streaming option in ESPN standard leagues and, in fact, his starting assignment improves the Guardians' hitting matchups enough across the two games that their lineup mainstays, Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, all stand out for Friday's action.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • New York Yankees SS Anthony Volpe left last night's game in the eighth inning due to a sore foot. He fouled a ball off his foot in the second inning but stayed in for six more frames. X-rays were negative, with Volpe considered day-to-day. Since the break, Volpe is hitting .320/.329/.587 with five steals, so the Yankees will certainly miss him if he's forced to sit going forward.

          • Detroit Tigers 3B/OF Matt Vierling left last night's contest in the seventh inning thanks to back spasms. The cause and severity of the injury is unclear, with Vierling considered to be day-to-day. The club was already playing without SS Javier Baez, who was a late scratch due to neck soreness.

          • Colorado Rockies SP Ryan Feltner was placed on the 15-day IL because of a strained right shoulder. The club also announced that SP German Marquez will not pitch at all this season. He was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery when he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right elbow.

          • Minnesota Twins SS Brooks Lee was scratched from the opener of today's doubleheader with the Cleveland Guardians. The reason is unclear, but the club has summoned Kyle Farmer from Triple-A, ostensibly to fill in for a likely IL stint. In other news, SP Joe Ryan underwent an MRI on Thursday. Ryan left Wednesday's outing early due to right triceps tightness.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • The game between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers has been postponed and will be made up as part of a Saturday doubleheader.

          • Garrett Crochet will make start No. 24 -- that puts him on pace for 32 -- but take a closer look at his recent performance. He hasn't been allowed to exceed 77 pitches in 34 days and has averaged 3.4 innings and 67.2 pitches in his past five starts. That's not enough to make a meaningful impact in mixed fantasy leagues, and it's a trend that'll need to shift here if he's to recapture the value he had during the season's first three months. Crochet's performance has suffered, too, as a result of his workload management, as he had a season-high four walks in his last outing on Saturday and has seven in 11 innings in his past three starts. He'll be facing a Chicago Cubs team that projects significantly better against left- than right-handed pitching, making this a "sit him" matchup, but one to closely track as far as his workload.

          • Zach Eflin, now with the Baltimore Orioles, returns to Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field, where he enjoyed much success over the past year and a half. As a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023-24, he was 15 of 25 in quality starts with a 14-6 record, 2.99 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 25.8% strikeout rate at "The Trop." The matchup also tilts heavily in Eflin's favor, as the Rays' 4.12 runs per game and 26.1% strikeout rate since the All-Star break rank eighth- and fifth-worst.

          • The Atlanta Braves are the visiting benefactors of Coors Field games this weekend, and Friday's game against four-seamer/slider/changeup artist Tanner Gordon stacks things significantly in the Braves' favor. The Braves' two designated hitter types, Jorge Soler and Marcell Ozuna -- though the former has played exclusively right field since his acquisition -- stand out as tremendous fastball hitters historically, as Soler has batted .277/.372/.633 with an 8.2% home run rate against four-seamers since the beginning of 2022, while Ozuna has hit .303/.368/.607 with a 7.4% homer rate against them in that same span. Soler hasn't yet found his timing at the plate since his trade, but Coors might be the venue for it to happen, as he has four homers in his past seven games there. He's a must-have in fantasy as the team's leadoff man.

          • The Kansas City Royals should deliver good offensive numbers against the St. Louis Cardinals and their starter, Miles Mikolas, who has a 6.14 ERA, .326 batting average allowed and 11.5% strikeout rate in his past eight starts. As Mikolas is a slider-reliant pitcher, Vinnie Pasquantino warrants a look in all leagues due to his success against that particular pitch. In his big-league career, Pasquantino has slugged .536 with 7.0% home run and 23.2% whiff rates against sliders, with the latter placing in the 93rd percentile among hitters since the beginning of 2022.

          • Betting tip of the day: The forecast calls for the wind to be blowing out tonight when the Chicago White Sox host the Chicago Cubs. The visitors may not score much early with Garrett Crochet on the hill, but Crochet is averaging only 72 pitches per game since the break, so the Cubs should get several chances against a weak bullpen. The White Sox will face Jameson Taillon, a pitch to contact hurler who is more vulnerable with winds blowing out. I'm taking over 7.5 runs (-135) as well as Crochet under 5.5 strikeouts (+105).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday