Representative concentration pathways (RCP)

The study was carried out to assess the impact of climate change on potato productivity to develop adaptation strategies in Punjab, using crop growth simulation models for future climate scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 6.0. Three potato cultivars belonging to distinct maturity groups, late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti) and early (Kufri Pukhraj), were used. Simulation results showed that under RCP 4.5, increase in CO2 concentration is expected to bring an increase in productivity of Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj by 6.7, 7.2 and 7.1% in 2030; 10.8, 11.6 and 11.4% in 2050; and 14.0, 15.0 and 14.8% in 2080. However, the
corresponding increase in temperature is likely to decline the mean productivity by 2.6, 3.8 and 3.8% in 2030; 6.5, 8.7 and 9.3% in 2050; and 14.4, 17.6 and 18.4% in 2080, for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj. But, when combined influence of temperature and CO2 was considered, the productivity of potato will not be affected in 2030 and 2050 over the baseline scenario but is expected to decline in 2080 (Kufri Badshah − 1.9%, Kufri Jyoti − 4.1% and Kufri Pukhraj − 5.2%). Similarly, for RCP 6.0, increased CO2 concentration is expected to increase the mean productivity by 6.5% in 2030, 10.5% in 2050 and 19.4% in
2080. However, yield increase due to CO2 is negated by increased temperature with respective values of 2.2, 4.4 and 14.2%. However, under combined effect for RCP 6.0, productivity of potato cultivars is not likely to be affected over the baseline scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Results further revealed that by changing the dates of planting or
selection of suitable cultivars, yield can increase in 2030 by 7.4% in Kufri Badshah and 7.8 and 1.5% in Kufri Pukhraj in 2050 and 2080, under RCP 4.5. Similarly, adaptation may increase mean yield up to 9.1% for Kufri Pukhraj in 2030, 9.8% for Kufri Badshah in 2050 and 8.2% for Kufri Badshah and Kufri Jyoti in 2080 under RCP 6.0. Further, with proper
irrigation and nitrogen management practices, yield can be increased.

<p>The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation’s water and energy limits. A basin’s movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and can help identify the main drivers of change. Basins are expected to move along their Budyko curves when only long-term changes in the aridity index drive changes in the evaporative ratio. We hypothesize that the increasing effects of global warming on the hydrological cycle will cause basins to move along their Budyko curves. To test our hypothesis, we quantify the movement in Budyko space of 353 river basins from 1901 to 2100 based on the outputs of nine models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that significant increases in potential evaporation due to global warming will lead to basins moving primarily horizontally in Budyko space accompanied by minor changes in the evaporative ratio. However, 37% of the basins will still deviate from their Budyko curve trajectories, with less evaporation than expected by the framework. We elaborate on how land-use change, vegetation changes, or shifts in precipitation or snow to rain ratios can explain these deviations.</p>

<p>We show likely substantial increases in burning by 2100 in Boreal and Tropical Forests irrespective of future emissions and after accounting for the (often considerable) uncertainties and biases in global fire and climate modelling. Rather than projecting future fire regimes directly, we used the ConFire Bayesian framework to model the likelihood of all possible future burning levels given historic fire and climate model performance. Driving the framework with bias-corrected outputs from four ISIMIP2b GCMs run under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 accounts for uncertainties in future emissions and climate model projections. </p><p>While we forecast the potential for substantial shifts in fire regimes of much of the world by the end of the century, many show low likelihood given our confidence in the fire, vegetation and climate model projections. Tropical savannas show the largest potential for change, though without confidence in the direction of change due to uncertainty in future precipitation projections.  An increase in dry fuel drives an increase in burnt area in northern Australia. However, this is not significant against uncertainty associated with present-day veg/fire model performance. There is a significant agreement for decreased burning in Southern Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina, and the US east coast under RCP2.6, but not RCP6.0.</p><p>We do show a high likelihood of drying fuel loads driving an increase in burning in Indonesia, Southern Amazon, central and eastern Siberian Taiga and many Arctic areas across RCPs. These areas are of particular concern given the potential to release the high carbon content of forests and peatlands irrecoverable carbon. Mitigating from RCP6.0 to 2.6 will likely alleviate some though not all of this burning. This is important for future mitigation planning and determining likely temperature and emission targets to avoid the worst impacts of fire in our warmer world.</p>

This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071–2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08–7.41 °C, 4.55–7.89 °C, and 3.88–7.23 °C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 °C (10 °C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 °C (1.35 °C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.