Effectuation

Research Report, 2020
For 40 years, economic, social, and cultural factors such as advanced technology and globalization have changed how cities compete to attract new citizens. A city’s proximity to natural resources is no longer the driver of its competitive advantage. Instead, a city’s ability to attract, develop and retain talent (the people who will live and work there) is the greatest predictor of social, and economic prosperity. That means how cities grow and develop their talent pool is crucial. Today's workplaces demand that people have the capacity to live with uncertainty, adapt to new roles and learn new skills quickly. These skills transcend industries and professions. If there were such a thing as a defining competency, it would be adaptability.

Adaptable people can adjust to the dynamic context of the world today. Adaptability can be reactive, like how many are learning to live in a new reality during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, adaptability can also be proactive and intentional, characterized by anticipating change and planning our response in advance. In this study, we explore the attributes of adaptive people and how they underpin adaptive organizations, systems, and cities.

Imagine a city of people who view disruption as opportunity. Imagine a population whose talent and skills continuously evolve. Imagine a Calgary that attracts investment and talent from across the globe because it’s known as a city that learns its way forward. We don’t believe the question is if this city is the Calgary of the future. Rather, our focus is on how we will realize our potential and whether the speed of change will be fast enough to navigate the precipice we’re standing on.

At the root of adaptation is learning. So to become a city that adapts, Calgary must become a city that can learn faster and better than others. How do we transform Calgary into a “LearningCITY”? We have to start by changing the learning system.

We argue that how we choose to learn will define Calgary’s future social and economic prosperity. Yet the ability for today’s learning system to transform to meet emerging demands remains widely debated, because education is one of the most change-resistant institutions in society. Education is also threaded through society, not just in kindergarten to grade 12 and accredited educational institutes, but it’s also in employers, professional associations, business ecosystems and in the hands of individual learners. The ways people learn, in short, are incredibly complex. That means there’s enormous potential to effect wider change by evolving our learning system.

How can Calgary’s learning system be optimized to drive social and economic prosperity in the face of accelerating uncertainty? To answer this question we conducted a multi-disciplinary study into the nature of adaptability and the learning system. This first report reviews the results of this two-phased study.

Based on decades of global insights into the life of successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs, Professor Campos deconstructs the myth that successful startups are built upon great ideas, once and for all proving the vast majority of aspiring entrepreneurs are positioned to explore their potential before having a specific idea in mind for a new venture.

In a friendly yet defiant and inverted manner, the book starts with the traditional end – by drawing a supported conclusion about modern entrepreneurial endeavors. Professor Campos then succinctly navigates through real cases and recent powerful concepts such as Design Thinking, Effectuation and Lean Startup, in an audacious quest to explain why execution is emerging as the main source of entrepreneurial achievement around the world.

The Upsidedown approach is presented in a conversational tone, allowing readers to discover an entrepreneurial process based on their ability to explore existing resources and social connections, thus debunking the myth that the idea is the crucial first step.

Necessity entrepreneurs create ventures since they perceive they can find no other suitable work. The number of research articles on the subject has skyrocketed in the 2000s. Some of these papers influence the public policies worldwide, aiming at reducing unemployment by stimulating entrepreneurship. Necessity entrepreneurs are opposed to opportunity entrepreneurs, who pursue profitable market opportunities, in a commonly accepted dichotomy.  First part of our dissertation presents how the « necessity entrepreneurship » concept developed. A second chapter summarizes the current global state of knowledge, based on a thorough literature review. Particular focus is placed on the wide range of definitions. In a third part, we demonstrate that the « necessity entrepreneurship » category is not a reliable one. Although widely found in research papers, it is not a solid concept to identify entrepreneurs : its meanings vary according to regions, individuals, social and economic contexts. Fourth chapter of this work proposes a typology of necessity entrepreneurs to illustrate in eight categories the various profiles encountered in the literature. A quantitative exploratory study based on a sample of 1000 French entrepreneurs offers a first validation tool for the typology. An operational list of all necessity factors, internal or external, unchangeable or modifiable, has then been developed to measure a degree of criticality to necessity entrepreneurs. In order to improve the mentoring of necessity entrepreneurs, to develop their resilience and venture’s success, last part of this paper is devoted to an in-depth analysis of necessity entrepreneurial processes. Therefore we used the biographical method in the framework of the effectuation theory. Specific issues and barriers related to necessity entrepreneurial venture set up have been identified, especially concerning resources gathering, funding and stakeholders’ involvement. It appears necessity entrepreneurs resort to effectuation spontaneously and by default. However, although effectual principals have been developed based on expert entrepreneurs, it seems that applied by necessity entrepreneurs, they are no guaranty of success at all.

This research used a comparative case study methodology to closely examine an emergent phenomenon in the field of entrepreneurship. The literature review examined interconnected shifts in social values, evolving technology, and economic geography systems that have contributed to this emergent phenomenon. The study sought to better understand the qualities, goals, and perceived needs of a purposive sample of entrepreneur business founders in Canada, as well as the drivers guiding the formation and characteristics of their advanced technology enabled organizations, to determine if a distinct model of entrepreneurial innovation existed. The study results affirmed many aspects of the observed phenomenon and provided new details about this distinctive model of entrepreneurship. Given the name GEMINI (an acronym meaning global entrepreneurial micro-niche innovation), this model comprises independent-minded founders with a keen sense of vocation who derive deep meaning from work-life integration, collaborative business building, personal development, and community legacy. Their typically bootstrapped, world-class organizations are formed through an iterative effectuation path to business model refinement, resourceful product design, solid business performance metrics, and a lasting impact on their international industries and communities. Although the stereotype of the young, Silicon Valley–style, high-tech-startup founder and his fast-growth company is still a prevailing discourse in media, political, business, and educational circles, the lived reality in this new model of entrepreneurial innovation is distinctly different from almost all aspects of this construct. Furthermore, public funds continue to be funnelled into a myriad of entrepreneurship strategies and programs—often without significant or sustainable economic community impact. Eighteen recommendations are made to reform related Canadian public policy, programs, and funding to support the development of more GEMINI model founders and businesses.

User Innovators Journey to Entrepreneurship in the Digital Economy This Ph.D. dissertation aimed at explaining the unforeseen and undermined source of innovations, namely users in promoting entrepreneurship. Recent waves of interventions by governments is favoring entrepreneurship for special groups. Not all technology startups should belong to universities' research centers, nor they are a spin-off of big corporations. Users with the "need knowledge" are capable of developing a new venture by employing other pools of knowledge from elsewhere. The significance is the attractiveness of their offer. This implies they are one prominent source of innovation and entrepreneurship that can fill the disparity of demanded goods and consumer's needs. Governments' appropriation of ordinary users' innovation and frame it in the form of university's research fruits will bring nothing but a lack of confidence to have entrepreneurship flourished. The science and technology parks are not filled with innovators whose final product is based on a research outcome of universities. Rather, they are imported from elsewhere and labeled as high-tech startups that hold intimate relationships with the universities' research centers. In this thesis, I attempt to address the mentioned issues from a qualitative research perspective by interviewing user innovators and to investigate how their decision-making led to the identification AND exploitation of business opportunities.

Effectuation was first proposed as an expert entrepreneur’s decision-making framework under uncertainty, but the applications of effectuation beyond the condition of uncertainty have seen less attention. Using an agent-based simulation model, this paper investigates the effectiveness of effectuation relative to causation in uncertain and risky contexts. The simulation overcomes the shortcomings of think aloud protocols typically used in effectuation research. The results suggest that effectuation outperforms causation in both risky and uncertain contexts until the entrepreneur can predict the future correctly more than 75% of the time. This suggests expanding the boundary of effectuation from uncertainty to whenever predicting the future is challenging.

This paper analyzes the theory of “entrepreneurial incentives” in the work of Israel Kirzner. It argues that there is a logical problem with the notion of profit opportunities as exogenous causal agents: Without additional assumptions, the existence of opportunities alone does not sufficiently explain the alertness of entrepreneurs. The paper considers both stronger and weaker versions of this problem. It also questions the relation between entrepreneurial incentives and the tendency toward entrepreneurial success. Finally, it provides some commentary on the relevance of entrepreneurial incentives for an overall theory of the entrepreneur, and identifies several potential solutions to the problems discussed.

Entrepreneurship scholars are increasingly interested in conducting work at the interface of design and science. However, a consistent methodological framework for this type of work is missing. In this paper, we therefore develop such a framework. First, three examples of entrepreneurship scholarship at the design-science interface are outlined. From these examples, we infer two key characteristics of design science (DS). For one, research outputs not only include theoretical constructs and models, but also values, principles and practices. In addition, creative design and scientific validation are complementary and equivalent research activities in DS. Whereas design and validation are legitimate research approaches in their own right, we conclude that the interaction between the two can drive the continual renewal of the entrepreneurship field and unlock the potential of an inclusive body of knowledge that is both rigorous and relevant.

This book is based on the experiences taken from ’netWork Oasis’ – and ’OpenINNO’ (ENPI – 631) - projects. It will describe the revolutionary change in our society and business fields having a transformative effect also to our innovation environments.  The increasing importance of communities and sustainable ecosystems is highlighted. The emergent types of entrepreneurship – both effectual and social entrepreneurship - are explained and some great examples also outside Oasis and OpenINNO projects are illustrated.

The key conclusion of the book is that innovation activities can be improved by understanding serendipity and applying serendipity management principles. The book gives practical, hands-on advices, how to harness serendipity on individual, community and organizational levels. It describes the possibilities to enhance serendipity in business environments by workspace design, both physical and virtual, and explains how to increase coincidencity in the team building process.

Keywords: innovation environments, incubation, community building, ecosystem development, open innovation, collaboration platforms, serendipity, serendipity management

Extant research on disruptive innovation has implicitly incorporated entrepreneurship as the underlying driver of the disruptive phenomenon. This article integrates recent developments from entrepreneurship and innovation research streams to better understand the conditions and causal mechanisms that influence disruptive innovation. Drawing on effectuation, evolutionary entrepreneurship, lead-users, collective intelligence and opportunity tournament literature, a theoretical framework is developed that explains disruptive innovation as a co-evolutionary entrepreneurial process at the firm, product, and customer level. The framework offers a set of testable propositions to advance theory and practice in the field. The authors suggest avenues for future research and conclude with entrepreneurial strategies to help general managers create and cope with disruptive innovation.

The ecosystems in Silicon Valley, Munich, and Singapore spark different narratives about entrepreneurship, which indicate what is common, appropriate, and successful in an ecosystem and in turn encourage different kinds of entrepreneurial approaches.
We conducted 43 interviews with successful players in Silicon Valley, Munich, and Singapore. We found ecosystem-specific narratives indicate what is common, appropriate, and successful in an ecosystem and encourage different kinds of entrepreneurial behavior and decision-making. Those narratives seem to shape tendencies towards specific strategic logics. The narratives either encourage ‘effectuation’ (i.e., when they focus on building partnerships and utilizing the networks, and when they encourage confidence and speed) or ‘causation’ (i.e., when they focus on developing systematics and structured plans, and when they encourage harmony and conformity). Narratives in Silicon Valley seem to facilitate effectuation, in Munich causation, and in Singapore both.
Our research suggests that narratives explain mechanisms how ecosystems influence entrepreneurship: the national culture, market characteristics, available resources, and networks in an ecosystem spark ecosystem-specific narratives, which in turn shape tendencies towards effectuation and causation. Thereby, we introduce a new ecosystem-focused perspective on predictors of effectuation and causation.
Our findings suggest specific strategies and success factors in each ecosystem. For example, the narratives prevalent in Silicon Valley have a sales focus, in Munich a need for detailed plans, and in Singapore value conformity. Thus, our findings provide insights for entrepreneurs for strategic location choices and on how to position their new venture at a specific location. VCs and policy makers gain from insights into how to leverage strengths and how to counteract problematic mechanisms in an ecosystem.

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to offer agent-based modelling (ABM) as an alternative approach to advance research in entrepreneurship. It argues that ABM allows entrepreneurship researchers (i.e. the designers) to find better ways in generating entrepreneurial outcomes by understanding alternative histories and examining a plausible future.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper begins with an overview of ABM, and discusses the shared conceptual foundations of entrepreneurship and ABM as the motives for the adoption of ABM as an appropriate methodology to study entrepreneurship. It offers a roadmap in using ABM approach for entrepreneurship research and illustrates this using a contemporary research question in entrepreneurship: the study of success/failure in business venturing.

Findings – This paper suggests the shared foundations between ABM and entrepreneurship as the basis for bringing the methodology and research domain closer. It offers a roadmap for advancing entrepreneurship research using agent-based simulation approach and explains the contribution of ABM to further advance entrepreneurship research.

Originality/value – This paper addresses the methodological gap in entrepreneurship research and develops the argument for a wider adoption of ABM simulation approach to study entrepreneurship. It bridges the gap by examining the possibility of formalizing entrepreneurship processes by grounding an agent-based model on empirical facts and generally-accepted foundations of entrepreneurship. It offers a contribution to the literature by showing that ABM is a useful and appropriate methodological approach for entrepreneurship research in addition to the conventional variance and process approach.

The purpose of this thesis is to not only add value to NEM Solutions but to also add a unique case study to the research currently being published on mature born globals. In order to enrich the study, research on operation and maintenance practices has been conducted on the two largest markets per continent in the North and South American wind energy industry: The United States and Brazil. With this market research, along with CAGE Framework, SWOT Analysis and effectuation theory, an action plan has been developed for NEM Solutions to enter the American markets.

Taking affordable losses into consideration, it woudl be best for NEM to first focus on the market where they have the most potential for an agent or partnership, which as the results conclude, is Brazil. Even though the US is the most attractive market overall due to ease of doing business, cultural dimensions, and a highly expressed need for NEM's prodcut, the Brazilian market should be pursued first. Since NEM has limited resources and time, as most born globals do, it is important to focus all efforts on the market with the biggest potential entry through local help. As NEM has already been in contact with an agent in Brazil, they should put full efforts towards this relationship.

This study aims to investigate attitudes and changes of attitude towards the decision-making logic of effectuation and causation of international entrepreneurs through traditional linear models of attitude change and non-linear through the framework of the theory of social representations. The study seeks to explain how and why international entrepreneurs shift from adopting causal logic to effectual logic when they gain more experience. This is a qualitative study based on ten interviews, which were organised using a convenience sample of international entrepreneurs who had studied business. Five of the entrepreneurs were women and the other five men. The study reveals that a shift of decision-making logic occurs mainly through high-effort processes after the entrepreneurial debut, and during the study period, attitudes towards a specific decision-making logic were formed mainly through low-effort processes. International entrepreneurs, during their education, and in their initial ...

Les enjeux de l’accompagnement des entrepreneurs se situent sur la possibilité de proposer des approches plus en phase avec la dimension dynamique du processus entrepreneurial et sa complexité. Un décloisonnement entre la recherche en entrepreneuriat et les pratiques d’accompagnement psychologique pourrait favoriser l’émergence de nouvelles réponses. Nous en proposons un exemple ici, fondé sur les préconisations de l’école de Palo Alto : comment lever les blocages paradoxaux induits par le fait de se fixer un but conscient ? Une réponse pragmatique pour mieux vivre une démarche « effectuale » sans planification...

This paper investigates the interfirm cooperative strategies of shipbuilding firms. This paper aims to understand the system nature and dynamics of interfirm cooperative strategies adopted by firms in the shipbuilding industry related to the phase of the shipbuilding cycle. A theory-building approach from case studies is applied in this study. The study is based on interviews with managers of the Norwegian, Danish, Polish and Ukrainian shipbuilding firms. In addition, secondary data were collected. Issues relating to the aims of joining cooperative agreements; resources and competences which the shipbuilding firms and their collaborators contribute to joint ventures, strategic alliances and other collaborative arrangements; and how collaborative strategies were related to the phase of the shipbuilding cycle were explored. Implications for further research, practitioners and policy-makers are provided.

The purpose of this review is to communicate the research results of Chinese academia in this field to interested scholars in Western academia. Our review question is: What were the factors that positively or negatively influenced China's export? We designed a systematic review protocol and then conducted a seven-round in-depth search. After the searching and checking process, a database of 620 academic journal articles was created. Altogether, we find 269 factors have boosted or hindered China's export. Majority of researches focused on macro level factors. Very few papers studied the firm level or individual level factors. Based on our database, several most frequently studied factors that affect China's export are identified. In the end, a future research direction is proposed.

Public administrators often pursue their public interest aspirations and personal aspirations by taking initiative independent of their supervisors. Rosemary O’Leary (2006) examined such “guerrilla government” as a predicament for supervisors.But these independent initiatives are also a vital part of the public administrator’s toolkit. This article examines four kinds: Intrapreneurship, Cuff Systems, Side Projects and Hacks.

This paper explores how nascent ventures employ different behavior logics, causation, effectuation, and bricolage as a response to uncertainty. It builds on entrepreneurial behavior literature and on a longitudinal comparative case study of eight ventures. Through investigating ventures’ perceptions of uncertainty and actions they take during opportunity exploration and exploitation stages, the study proposes the mechanisms of how different types and sources of uncertainty influence ventures’ behaviors. It therefore contributes to the entrepreneurship literature by explaining the underlying mechanisms and antecedents of different behavioral logics.

Sustainability" challenges the limits of human decision making capability but managerial prescriptions and recommendations for sustainability are mostly based on simplifying disciplinary assumptions that reduce the complexity of the challenge that organizations face. This limits the effectiveness of organizational initiatives for change. A deeper appreciation of the problem context is required. When is coupled with a process-oriented problem structuring methodology and a learning-based approach to innovation, this can result in organizational strategies that are both more effective and that ensure organizational flourishing. This paper describes an engagement process that is based on three elements: an inquiry and structuring process based on Aristotelian causality, the use of systems thinking for analysis and communication, and an innovation process based on the logic of effectuation. Aristotelian causality is the foundation of the engagement process and links systems thinking...

Purpose This study aims to investigate the antecedents of the internationalisation strategy i.e., effectuation, causation and bricolage on the international performance of the firm. Design/methodology/approach In total, the study uses 138 peer-reviewed articles on effectuation, causation, effectual/causal decision-making logics and related issues such as the impact of antecedent factors of international strategy (i.e. effectuation, causation and bricolage) on the international performance of the firm. Findings Even though the theory of effectuation was formulated in 2001, to a large extent it has still not moved away from the realm of small entrepreneurial firms. The development of effectuation logic has accelerated in recent years, but the bulk of the research still focusses on small entrepreneurial firms rather than on the application of the theory in larger, non-entrepreneurial firms. Furthermore, effectuation theory would benefit from being developed into the realm of psychology...

A internacionalização de microcervejarias brasileiras sob a ótica do empreendedorismo internacional e effectuation Resumo O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar o processo de internacionalização de duas microcervejarias brasileiras, a Overhop e a Zehn Bier, sob a ótica das teorias do empreendedorismo internacional e do effectuation. Através do método do estudo de caso, buscou-se entender os motivos que levaram estas empresas a se internacionalizarem, os fatores que influenciaram sua internacionalização, e, principalmente, entender o poder explanatório das teorias de internacionalização supracitadas para os referidos casos. Como resultado, observou-se que a teoria do empreendedorismo internacional e a teoria do effectuation, em maior ou menor grau, mostraram-se robustas para explicar os fenômenos observados, destacando-se a construção e o desenvolvimento das dinâmicas redes de relacionamento nos processos de internacionalização das microcervejarias. Palavras-chaves: empreendedorismo internacional, effectuation, rede de relacionamentos, microcervejarias, empresas brasileiras. 1. Introdução Segundo dados do Euromonitor (2018), o Brasil é 3º maior produtor de cerveja do mundo, atrás apenas da China e dos Estados Unidos. No mercado interno, o setor movimentou em 2017 mais de R$ 136 bilhões. No período de 2012 a 2017, o número de cervejarias saiu de 232 empresas para 679, um crescimento de 192% (EUROMONITOR, 2018). Como um dos setores mais relevantes da economia brasileira, o setor cervejeiro movimenta uma grande cadeia produtiva que é responsável por 1,6% do PIB e 14% da indústria de transformação nacional (CERVBRASIL,2016). Assim como ocorre em outros setores, o mercado de cerveja nacional é concentrado, sendo que três grandes players dominam 96,8% do mercado (EUROMONITOR, 2018). Então, além da concorrência de grandes cervejarias, a expansão do mercado de cervejas artesanais enfrenta outros desafios, como as questões de tributação, produção, logística e principalmente, a elevada concorrência (SEBRAE, 2017). Apesar disso, o mercado de cerveja artesanal está em franco crescimento no Brasil e representa uma oportunidade de negócio para muitos empreendedores. Outro fator importante a ser observado no setor é o crescente número de aquisições, onde geralmente grandes empresas adquirem microcervejarias, como resposta ao crescimento do setor de cerveja artesanal. O presente estudo tem por objetivo analisar o processo de internacionalização de duas empresas brasileiras do setor de cervejarias artesanais, sob a ótica das teorias de empreendedorismo internacional e effectuation, aplicadas a pequenos empreendimentos. Através do método do estudo de caso de duas empresas, buscou-se entender os motivos que levaram essas empresas a se internacionalizarem, os fatores que influenciaram sua internacionalização, e, principalmente, entender o poder explanatório das teorias de internacionalização supracitadas para os referidos casos. Ainda que se reconheça a importância das teorias que estudam empreendedorismo internacional, o número de estudos que de fato tratam empreendedorismo como tema principal é relativamente baixo (JONES et al.,2011). Logo, este estudo tem a intenção de preencher uma lacuna empírica no campo da internacionalização das empresas brasileiras. Essa lacuna consiste na aplicação das proposições das teorias do empreendedorismo internacional e effectuation a dois casos de microcervejarias brasileiras.

French anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss introduced the concept of bricolage into the social sciences, noting that most useful innovations in pre-industrial cultures emerged from repetitive adjustments and transformations of familiar, readily available materials. In recent years, other academics have explored whether bricolage, loosely translated as tinkering, can explain how craftsmen, entrepreneurs, and other decision-makers operating in resource-constrained environments assemble creative solutions. Firms using bricolage exhibit three specific traits: a bias towards action that refuses to wait for resources to reach a desired level; a readiness to use whatever relationships, know-how and resources are on hand; and an inventive and even playful approach to recombining existing assets and resources in novel ways to advance the venture's mission.

Keenga Research has a novel proposition that it is seeking to introduce to the market. The business concept is to ask entrepreneurs to review the venture capital (VC) firm that funded them. Reviews of VC firms would then be developed and marketed to those interested (funds and perhaps enterprises seeking funding). -- Keenga Research was a lean start-up; this approach favors experimentation over elaborate planning, customer feedback over intuition and iterative design over traditional big upfront research and development.

Les enjeux de l’accompagnement des entrepreneurs se situent sur la possibilité de proposer des approches plus en phase avec la dimension dynamique du processus entrepreneurial et sa complexité. Un décloisonnement entre la recherche en entrepreneuriat et les pratiques d’accompagnement psychologique pourrait favoriser l’émergence de nouvelles réponses. Nous en proposons un exemple ici, fondé sur les préconisations de l’école de Palo Alto : comment lever les blocages paradoxaux induits par le fait de se fixer un but conscient ? Une réponse pragmatique pour mieux vivre une démarche « effectuale » sans planification...

The objective of this work is to identify evidences of the applicability of the effectuation theory on new businesses creation. The effectuation theory explains how the decision making process on the creation of new business or products occurs on environments with great uncertainty. For that matter a structured survey was applied to the founder of a company located in Picada Café. The conclusion is that there are evidences that this entrepreneur used the effectual logic on this new venture creation.

ABSTRACT This qualitative study investigates effectuation and causation as two opposing decisionmaking modes leading to opportunity creation and recognition. Prior literature posits that effectuation is linked to opportunity creation when the venture׳s future is highly uncertain and causation to opportunity recognition when the entrepreneur perceives risk rather than uncertainty. However, such a linear approach towards opportunity generation offers limited explanation as to how entrepreneurs decide to either create or search for entrepreneurial opportunities. This limitation becomes particularly apparent in the highly uncertain context of the biotechnology industry, where entrepreneurial decision-making processes iterate over long periods of time. To address this gap, we employ the embedded case study method to investigate 30 decisions made by three scientist-entrepreneurs commercializing platform biotechnology inventions. We inductively derive a model of entrepreneurial decision-making, which connects the environment to decision-making mode and opportunity generation. Our evidence reveals the iterative nature of opportunity generation and of decision-making modes as entrepreneurs respond to their evolving environment and to the level of regulatory and funding constraint, such that entrepreneurs can shift from effectuation to causation, remain in one particular mode, or adopt a combination mode. We also illustrate that effectuation does not always lead to opportunity creation.

This is a chapter in a volume in the series: The Entrepreneurship SIG at European Academy of Management: New Horizons with strong Traditions, edited by Luca Gnan, Hans Lundberg, Lucrezia Songini and Massimiliano Pellegrini. The main objective with the chapter is to develop theoretical and empirical insights into how university spin-offs use inter-organizational networks to cope with the uncertainties that surround the entrepreneurial process of market creation. We rely on effectuation theory to contrast between the use of predictive and emerging approaches to network strategies during early stages of venture development. In the chapter, we first employ a case study of a single university spin-off originating from Lund University. This inductive approach is followed by a questionnaire survey to university spin-offs in incubators across Sweden, where we test our tentative findings from the case study on a broader sample of fi rms. In all, we find that the use of predictive or emerging approaches is influenced by the entrepreneurial experience of the founder but also that it shifts depending on the network position of the spin-off firm during different stages of development. Moreover, the use of emerging approaches decreases over time when the spin-off ventures beyond the post-commercialization stage and when facing uncertainty about likely responses from competitors.