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Shakespeare was right! The oil companies are slowly going away and so are fossil fuels! He predicted it all in "Romeo and Juliet", back in 1596. AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Change is coming faster than most can appreciate, much less plan for. As time passes, new technology has emerged and it has radically changed lifestyles. Other changes such as an increase in warming temperatures are already causing mass migrations and the displacement of ever-increasing populations into mega-cities. An important, but barely noticed change is that the fossil fuel industries (that have led the unprecedented economic growth and technical progress during the last 250 years) are starting to run out of affordable energy sources. The objective of this paper is to examine one of these industries: oil; and the possible changes to be seen in the next decade or two
2009 •
Global Environmental Politics
Lovell, Bryan. 2010. Challenged by Carbon: The Oil Industry and Climate Change . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press2013 •
Energy and Economy are tightly bound to each other, primarily due to physical reasons. Indeed, energy is the unit measuring the quantity of transformation in a system, and the economic activities transform resources into useful goods and services. Due to transport, oil is the ultimate source of energy for a globalised economy. In this context, the peak of oil, corresponding to the moment when the global oil production reaches a maximum, and then declines, might be a critical issue. This thesis studies what the European Commission might plan in this context. In a first chapter the expectable future of oil supply is exposed. It appears that the global oil production is likely to peak before the end of the current decade. Moreover, the conventional oil production peaked in 2006, and the European production peaked in 2000 (declined by 46% in 2011). Besides, the post-peak decline rate is around 6% per year, and at least 16 out of the 20 biggest oil fields have already passed their peak (these 20 fields represent 25% of the oil production). Then, the second chapter is dedicated to the impacts of an energy shortage on the socio-economic system, and to the solutions planned. Based on the academic literature, the impacts are assessed from historical events during which societies suffered from a huge energy crunch (North Korea and Cuba after the Soviet Union demise). Furthermore, the historical oil price is analysed, especially the price elasticity (based on empirical data from EIA and World Bank). It results that the volume of oil produced is almost unresponsive to the price since 2004-5. Moreover, based on the fiscal break-even of Saudi Arabia and on the carrying capacity of China, the range of future prices is [100;120] dollars per barrel, while the carrying capacity of western societies is around 90 dollars. Finally, the chapter discusses the technological solutions (liquid fuels production from coal, gas and biomass, mainly) and their limits. Apart from the negative impacts in terms of greenhouse gases and potential scarcities (lithium, lands, coal and gas), the most problematic limit is probably the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), which is decreasing. It means that the energy surplus available for the society is shrinking. An increasing amount of resources (energy included) is diverted for the sake of oil and gas industry. The last chapter describes the reasons why we cannot rely on decoupling and dematerialisation, to maintain economic growth while the energy supply diminishes. In particular, based on empirical data (World Bank and International Labour Organization) the absence of negative correlation between the energy consumption per capita and the share of labour force in services is evidenced. Besides, the decoupling effect has never been observed at the global scale, and the partial one is controversial. Consequently, another paradigm is proposed and briefly discussed, namely degrowth, based on the dedicated academic literature. Finally, the last section gathers some unusual proposals, which the European Commission might examine to cope with the Peak Oil, without economic growth.
2011 •
Mental Health Challenges among Academicians During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Impact of COVID-19 on the Mental Health of Academic Staff: A Cross-Sectional Study at a Higher Education Institution in Lusaka, ZambiaAbrahams Erbe: Konkurrenz, Konflikt und Koexistenz der Religionen im europäischen Mittelalter
The networks of a cultural encounter: Byzantine and Latin monasteries in Constantinople in the 13th and 14th c. (in German)2015 •
Antropoloji ve Kültürel Bakış
Şeyhin Konukları: Bir Irak Köyünün Kadınları2024 •
Mağallaẗ Al-Baḥṯ Al-ʿilmī Fī Al-Āadab
Interpreting Visual Images : A Socio-Semiotic Approach to Facebook Images2017 •
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Instrumental Meteorological Records before 1850: An Inventory2020 •
Journal of social work in end-of-life & palliative care
Emotional Support for Health Care Professionals: A Therapeutic Role for the Hospital Ethics Committee2022 •
Anais do Pró-Ensino: Mostra Anual de Atividades de Ensino da UEL
Ruralidade: Ensino Prospectivo De Buiatria Prática Para Acadêmicos De Medicina Veterinária2020 •
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Sampling for silver nanoparticles in aqueous media using a rotating disk electrode: evidence for selective sampling of silver nanoparticles in the presence of ionic silver2017 •
Pessoa Plural―A Journal of Fernando Pessoa Studies
“The aesthetic tie that binds me to the outside world”: From intervals to episodes