1
Voter turnout in the U.S.
by Dr. Jacqueline Siapno1
“Voter turnout is always high among the affluent and low among those who are
less educated and have lower income. While the upper class votes, the
underclass often feels powerless and neglects to exercise this right. Perhaps the
lack of political action among the poor can be attributed to their daily struggle to
survive. Being poor is difficult, especially in a place where the contrasts with
affluence are highly visible…Most political leaders rarely talk about the
consequences of the continuing income disparity, and some believe that poverty
is solely the result of individual choices rather than social policy.” (Mona Field,
California Government and Politics Today, 2013, p. 133).2
Talk,
Sacramento.
Dr.
Jacqueline
Siapno
has
taught
as
as
a
Lecturer
in
Global
Economics
and
Security
at
UC
Irvine,
Sociology
at
California
State
University,
Sacramento,
Southeast
Asian
Studies
at
UC
Berkeley,
as
an
Assistant
Professor
of
Political
Science
and
Asian
Studies
at
University
of
Melbourne,
Australia,
and
Associate
Professor
at
the
Graduate
School
of
International
Studies,
Seoul
National
University,
Korea.
This
paper
is
based
on
her
observations
as
an
independent
scholar
and
her
practical
experience
as
an
election
official
in
California
and
a
campaign
strategist
in
East
Timor
(Timor
Leste).
2
Mona
Field,
California
Government
and
Politics
Today,
Fourteenth
Edition,
Pearson
Publishing,
2013.
1
2
“After
a
hard-‐fought,
decades-‐long
campaign,
American
women
finally
won
the
right
to
vote
in
1920.”
Source:
We
the
People:
A
Concise
Introduction
to
American
Politics,
Thomas
E.
Patterson,
New
York:
McGraw
Hill,
Inc.,
2013,
10th
edition,
p.
217.
Why is it important to study voter turnout in the U.S. and the world? What can
voter turnout tell us, for example, about state-society relations, political participation,
and satisfaction or disapproval of the U.S. government and status quo? What are the
methodologies, paradigms, and sources we need to analyze in order to understand the
processes of voter turnout in the U.S., as independent thinkers? (see powerpoint
slides). What are some of the factors that various scholars have identified to help us
understand how or why people vote or not vote? 1. Social Background;; 2. The Political
3
Environment, Mobilization, and Competition (National, State, County, City, Local
community levels);; 3. State Electoral Laws;; 4. Global Comparative Analysis.
According to Ginsberg et.al.:
“Americans with higher levels of education, more income, and higher-level
occupations – collectively, what social scientists call higher socioeconomic
status – participate much more in politics than do those with low education and
less income. Education level is the single most important factor in predicting
whether an individual will vote or engage in most other kinds of participation.
Income is an important factor (not surprisingly) when it comes to people making
campaign contributions. Those with money, time, and capacity to participate
effectively in the political system are more likely to do so. Other individual
characteristics also affect participation. For example, African Americans, Asian
Americans, and Latinos are less likely to participate than are whites, although
when differences in education and income are taken into account, African
Americans participate at similar levels to whites. Finally, young people are far
less likely to participate in politics than are older people. Individuals with strong
partisan ties to one of the major political parties are more likely to vote than
nonpartisans or independents.” (Ginsberg et.al. 2017: pp.222).3
What can we infer from this and other scholarly analyses? How do we interpret
these and other data? Is `technical data’ and results `neutral’?4
One interpretation is that if socioeconomic and educational status are important
factors, then disadvantaged, under-represented, and marginalized groups who need the
Ginsberg,
Lowi,
Weir,
Tolbert,
Spitzer,
We
the
People,
Eleventh
Edition.
New
York,
N.Y.:
W.W.
Norton
&
Company,
Inc.,
2017.
4
See
for
example:
https://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/12statab/election.pdf
https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101;
Source:
A
Boatload
Of
Ballots:
Midterm
Voter
Turnout
Hit
50-‐Year
High,
NPR,
November
8,
2018:
49.3%
in
2018:
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-‐boatload-‐of-‐ballots-‐midterm-‐voter-‐turnout-‐
hit-‐50-‐year-‐high
https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/voter-‐turnout-‐trends-‐around-‐the-‐
world.pdf
U.S.
trails
most
developed
countries
in
voter
turnout:
55.7%
Voting-‐age
population
or
VAP
in
2016
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-‐tank/2018/05/21/u-‐s-‐voter-‐turnout-‐trails-‐most-‐developed-‐
countries/
3
4
most support are also the most dis-empowered and voiceless in this structure. Read for
example, Paulo Freire’s Pedagogy of the Oppressed (Pedagogia do Oprimido).5
Another study by Magleby et.al., argues that: “About 40% of all eligible citizens
fail to vote. This amounts to approximately 80 million people.” (Magleby et.al., 2011,
p.229).6 What are some of the reasons why people don’t vote? Who are the people who
don’t vote even when they are eligible?
Historically, voter turnout in the U.S. has been decreasing since the mid-1800s
(see ppt. slides).7
Source: Magleby et.al. 2011, p.225.
But recently, in the November 2018 mid-term elections, there is a historic
increase in women, Latinos, scientists, African-Americans, Native Americans, young
people, and other groups voting.8 For example, according to several news sources,
First
published
in
Portuguese
in
1968,
Pedagogy
of
the
Oppressed
was
translated
and
published
in
English
in
1970.
Published
by
Continuum,
2000
(30th
Anniversary
Edition).
6
Magleby,
Light,
Nemacheck,
Government
by
the
People,
2011
Alternate
Edition,
New
Jersey:
Longman
and
Pearson
Education,
Inc.
2011.
7
See:
https://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/12statab/election.pdf
8
See:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-‐tank/2018/11/08/the-‐2018-‐midterm-‐vote-‐divisions-‐
by-‐race-‐gender-‐education/
5
5
Latino voter turnout surged 174% in the recent November 2018 Midterm elections.9
What happened? How do we interpret this phenomena?
Source: Ginsberg et.al. 2017, p.221.
According to NPR, "Almost half of possible voters actually voted" might not
sound impressive. But for a U.S. midterm election, it's a whopping figure. Compare
that with just 36.7 percent in 2014, and 41 percent in 2010. That's the highest
turnout for a midterm since 1966, when 49 percent of the population showed up to
vote. All told, more than 110 million Americans cast a ballot for their congressional
representative in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to a Wednesday estimate
from the Election Project.”10
9
See:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-‐say-‐latino-‐turnout-‐in-‐2018-‐was-‐up-‐174-‐
percent-‐over-‐2014-‐midterms
10
Source:
A
Boatload
Of
Ballots:
Midterm
Voter
Turnout
Hit
50-‐Year
High,
NPR,
November
8,
2018.
See:
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-‐boatload-‐of-‐ballots-‐midterm-‐voter-‐
turnout-‐hit-‐50-‐year-‐high
6
Comparatively, when compared to other countries globally, in particular Belgium,
Sweden, Denmark, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, The Netherlands, New Zealand,
Germany, U.K, and many others, voter turnout in the U.S. is low. What explains the low
turnout in the U.S. case?
Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/21/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-
developed-countries/
7
8
Source: Ginsberg et.al. 2017, p.224.
Some scholars suggest several reasons for the comparatively low turnout: the
fact that there hasn’t been a strong tradition of socialist and labor parties in the U.S. to
fight for low-income peoples rights means that there is no party to mobilize them to vote;;
the fact that voting happens during the working weekday instead of weekend (as in
other countries);; in other countries voting is compulsory/ mandatory and citizens are
fined if they don’t vote;; that logistically, in other countries the state is responsible for
registering voters, unlike the U.S. where the individual voter must register on their own
(and there are several obstacles to registration and voter ID checking for Native
Americans, African Americans, and other groups, and others), to name only a few of the
obstacles.
There are structural obstacles and challenges to elections and electoral reform in
the U.S. and other countries, in addition to technical and logistical ones. I’ve written
about this in the context of Timor Leste.11 In the U.S. it includes things like Russian
intervention in the past Presidential election, voter suppression in Georgia and other
states, logistical challenges for Native Americans to vote because of lack of street
addresses where they live, Facebook and other private companies not regulating
certain groups to run campaign ads intervening in elections, to name but a few. In the
past month, I worked as an Election Official in a California County and witnessed first-
hand the everyday technical and logistical challenges to voters and voter turnout. At the
level of the local county and state, and at the national level, what are the obstacles?
What is the role of technology? And are machines and technology `neutral’ and error
free? What happens when you add human error on top of the technological errors?
What is the role of digital technology when it comes to mobilization and voter turnout?
What kind of impact does technology have on voter turnout, elections, and democracy?
What are the other challenges and obstacles to voters turning out to vote, state
to state, county to county, city to city? My goal is not so much to provide all the answers
(because I am also still grappling with them), but to produce questions that provoke
students of U.S. government to think critically and explore all the possible new answers
using different methodologies, paradigms, and sources by thinking independently
`outside the box’.12 Here are a few challenges to reflect on:
11
See
for
example:
“The
True
Cost
of
Elections
in
Timor
Leste/
East
Timor:
https://www.academia.edu/36550956/The_True_Costs_of_Elections_in_Timor_Leste_East_Ti
mor
12
See
for
example:
https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101;
https://www.fairvote.org/fairvote_in_the_news;
https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/voter-‐turnout-‐trends-‐around-‐the-‐
world.pdf;
https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ap-‐us-‐government-‐and-‐politics/political-‐
participation/voter-‐turnout/v/voter-‐turnout
9
In ”The Key to Unblocking Black Voting Rights: Vigilant Administration of Civil
Rights Laws,” Kernell et.al. show that vigilant administration of Civil Rights Laws and
voting rights, especially in the southern states increased voter turnout.
Source: Kernell, Jacobson, Kousser, Vavreck, The Logic of American Politics,
Edition 7, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, 2016, p.151.
“Paradoxically, given their greater need for government help, lower income
Americans are the least likely to vote or to otherwise engage in collective action.
They lack the financial resources and communication skills that encourage
participation in politics and make it personally rewarding. As a consequence,
their political influence is relatively limited. In Unequal Democracy, Larry Bartels
demonstrates that elected officials are substantially more responsive to the
concerns of their more affluent constituents than to those of their poorer
constituents. In other words, the pattern of individual political participation in the
United States parallels the distribution of influence that prevails in the private
10
sector. Those who have the most power in the marketplace also have the most
power in the political arena.” (Patterson 2013: p.238).13
Source: We the People: A Concise Introduction to American Politics, Thomas E.
Patterson, New York: McGraw Hill, 2013, p.222
13
Thomas
E.
Patterson,
We
the
People:
A
Concise
Introduction
to
American
Politics,
Tenth
Edition,
New
York:
McGraw-‐Hill,
2013,
p.238.
11
Electoral College and the Popular Vote:
“Keyssar says that many on the political right fear a surge in voter participation
in coastal states if a switch to a popular-vote system were made. The nightmare
for conservatives is that “with the national popular vote, an extra 10 million
people or 50 million people will come out of the woodwork in New York or Illinois
or California and drown the rest of the electorate.” But there’s no reason to
believe that would happen, he says. Supporters of the national popular vote
frequently argue that voter turnout would rise in non-battleground states without
the Electoral College, but there isn’t any reason to think that would be more true
of voters in blue states than red states.”14
At the level of the cities and counties, for example, look at what happened in one
County, which is a Republican stronghold: three women candidates (Democrats)
running (but fragmented) and were not able to flip the seat that has been held by a
Republican for several terms now. What lessons can be learned from that experience?
One of the female candidates is a Political Science professor, but even with all the
Political Science training, she lost to the other female candidate who came in second
place, who then finally lost to the Republican incumbent. Surely there are a lot of
lessons to be learned from that? What are they?
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/electoral-college-gives-
trump-and-gop
boost/576448/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-
daily-newsletter&utm_content=20181123&silverid-ref=MzIxODYxNjEzOTI3S0
14
12
Source: Placer County Election Office.
Scholars and analysts, including Thomas Patterson (2013) and others offer the
following analyses and solutions:
Some obstacles, challenges, and possible solutions:
1. Registration process: “The United States – in keeping with its individualistic
culture -- is one of the few democracies in which registration is the individual’s
responsibility…Scholars estimate that turnout would be roughly ten percentage
points higher in the U.S. if it had European-style registration. States with a
tradition of convenient registration laws have higher turnout than other states. A
few states, including Idaho, Maine, and Minnesota, allow people to register at
their polling places on Election Day. Their turnout rates are are than 10
percentage points above the national average. States with the most restrictive
registration laws…several of these states are in the South…have the lowest
turnout rate of any region.” (Patterson 2013: p.219).
2. Voter Identification Cards (government-issued photo IDs): “Georgia’s law
requires citizens without a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s
license or passport, to obtain a voter identification card, which would cost them
twenty dollars and expire after five years. To obtain the card, they had to go to a
Department of Motor Vehicles office and present a certified copy of their birth
certificate and other documents. Georgia Democrats challenged the law, citing
scholarly studies that have found that fraudulent voting due to false identity
13
claims is rare. A federal judge invalidated Georgia’s twenty-dollar fee
requirement, which the Georgia legislature then eliminated while retaining the
photo ID requirement.
“African Americans were disenfranchised throughout the South by intimidation
and electoral trickery, including rigged literacy tests as a precondition of being
allowed to register to vote. The tests contained questions so difficult that often
the examiner had to look up the answers.” (Patterson 2013: p. 217)
3. Frequency of elections: too often and too many, compared to other countries;;
4. “Another factor affecting voter turnout rate in the United States is the absence of
a major labor or socialist party, which would serve to bring lower-income citizens
to the polls...In democracies where such parties exist, the turnout difference
between upper- and lower-income groups is relatively small. In the U.S., the gap
in the turnout levels of lower-and upper-income persons is substantial;;
5. Does the party system affect turnout? Other countries with more significant
political parties to choose from (e.g. Green Party, etc., besides just two –
Democrat and Republican), and who have a proportional representation system
(where parties get legislative seats according to their percentage of the total
vote), instead of a plurality system where representatives are chosen by
legislative district (with the winner in each district getting the seat), have higher
voter turnout. People seem to be more inclined to vote when they have more
choices, and when the outcome is not so lopsided that it is a forgone conclusion;;
6. Compulsory, mandatory voting: William Galston of the University of Maryland
notes that “some democracies including Australia and Italy, require citizens to
vote or pay a fine. These countries have exceptionally high turnout levels. `Our
low turnout rate,’ Galston says, `pushes American politics toward increased
polarization.’” (Patterson 2013: p.228).
“Alarmed at a sharp turnout decline early in the 20th century — bottoming out at
around 60%, it’s worth noting — Australia settled on a drastic remedy: requiring
that voters vote. Politics professor Lisa Hill of the University of Adelaide said
parliamentary debate on the matter took just 15 minutes. (Belgium, Brazil and
Turkey, according to Vox, are other countries that have taken the same step.
The Netherlands enacted but later dropped mandatory voting.)
In an interview with the Vox podcast Today Explained, Hill said one key factor
in Australia’s success in boosting turnout is that elections are held on Saturdays.
“It’s a festive sort of occasion,” she said, replete with sausage sizzles. “It’s
mandatory and a big party, mate.”15
15
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-voter-turnout-was-highest-in-a-
century-but-us-wont-be-confused-with-australia-any-time-soon-2018-11-21
14
7. Weekend elections instead of Tuesday, workday. Improve Vote-By-Mail (VBM)
process.
For example, on the topic of `curing ballots’ and technical, logistical obstacles,
analysts write:
“In 2016, Walker ruled that Florida must allow voters whose signatures have
been flagged to “cure” their ballots by proving their identities. But the solution
Florida has provided, he wrote on Thursday, is “illusory,” and “fails to
meaningfully protect the right to vote.” The state permits voters to cure their
ballots up until 5 p.m. on the day before the election. Yet canvassers may begin
counting absentee ballots on or after Election Day. Moreover, under Florida law,
voters unable to prove their ability to vote on Election Day can cast provisional
ballots, then submit the necessary materials shortly after. But if officials find a
signature “mismatch,” these individuals—between four and five thousand voters
who cast absentee and provisional ballots—have no chance to cure their
ballots.”16
Is there hope that democracy is not dead? How do democracies die? 17
Hope comes from new faces and “firsts”. For the first time, hundreds of women,
scientists, and other groups not only turned out to vote, but ran for political office.18
What are some of their motivations?
16
Source: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/florida-ruling-mismatching-
signatures.html?
17
For
a
fascinating
reading,
see
for
example
How
Democracies
Die
by
Steven
Levitsky
and
Daniel
Ziblatt,
Crown
Publisher,
2018.
18
See:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm-‐elections-‐2018-‐hundreds-‐of-‐candidates-‐
with-‐science-‐backgrounds-‐are-‐running-‐2018-‐11-‐03/
15
Source: Facebook post by women, “New Faces of Congress”.
“Some 95 women have won, or are projected to win, their House races as of
Wednesday, which is up from the current 84 women in the House. In addition, at
least 13 women won Senate seats. That's on top of the 10 female senators who
were not up for re-election this year… Among the notable names on the new
House roster: Deb Haaland of New Mexico and Sharice Davids of Kansas are
the first Native American women elected to Congress, and Rashida Tlaib
and Ilhan Omar will be the first Muslim women in the House. Alexandria Ocasio-
Cortez of New York and Abby Finkenauer of Iowa, both 29, will become the
youngest women to serve in the House…Other firsts: In Texas, Veronica
Escobar and Sylvia Garcia became the first Latinas to represent the state in
Congress. Jahana Hayes of Connecticut and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts
also became the first women of color elected to represent their respective
states.”19
More possible solutions
19
See:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-number-of-women-to-serve-in-house-
congress-2018-midterm-elections/
16
Restoring and expanding the Voting Rights Act:
“During this year’s midterm elections, politicians denied millions their sacred right
to vote through racist gerrymandering, reckless voter purges, and burdensome
lines to vote from Florida to North Carolina. Even though some gains were made,
hundreds of polling stations remained closed, felony disenfranchisement persists,
and new restrictive voter ID laws and other forms of racist voter suppression are
curtailing this basic right. Whether you’re in Georgia, Kansas or North Dakota,
these attacks target poor communities of color, but have broad impact among the
poor. We’ve found that states that suppress votes have the lowest wages, the
least environmental protections, the most uninsured people, and the greatest
attacks on immigrants, LGBTQ people and women.That’s why our next visit is to
Capitol Hill, where on December 5, we’ll return for the third time this year
to demand our politicians protect our voting rights and address the voter
suppression we saw in 2018 across the country. This means immediately
restoring and expanding the Voting Rights Act, ending racist gerrymandering,
implementing automatic voter registration at the age of 18, making Election Day
a holiday and extending the right to vote to all current and formerly incarcerated
people.”20
Concluding remarks
What lessons can we learn from this recent Midterm Election of November 2018?
What are some of the questions we should be asking? What are the lessons we haven’t
learned? How can the most disadvantaged and under-represented in this community,
and in this system be more empowered to change it? Is voter turnout the only way,
and/or the most effective way towards social-political-economic-ecological change? If
not, what other means are necessary if democracy is to survive and thrive? What are
the tools we need to understand what citizenship means and how to use that power if
we want to be agents of change?21
20
Source: Poor People’s Campaign
21
See
for
example:
10
things
we
learned
from
the
midterm
elections:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/417872-‐10-‐things-‐we-‐learned-‐in-‐the-‐
midterms?rnd=1542989354/?userid=162889;
Getting
Money
out
of
Politics:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/nyregion/campaign-‐finance-‐reform-‐new-‐
york.html?emc=edit_th_181123&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=699097731123
More
independents,
increasing
independent
spaces;
The
limits
of
political
theorizing
and
polarization:
“Illinois
Democrat
Cheri
Bustos,
L.A.
Ties,
Nov.
22,
2018,
Thanksgiving
Day”:
http://enewspaper.latimes.com/desktop/latimes/default.aspx?pubid=50435180-‐e58e-‐48b5-‐
8e0c-‐236bf740270e;
see
also
“Inequality
Media”
videos
and
podcasts.