Urban, Planning and Transport Research
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E-commerce and urban planning – comparing
knowledge claims in research and planning
practice
Fredrik Pettersson, Lena Winslott Hiselius & Till Koglin
To cite this article: Fredrik Pettersson, Lena Winslott Hiselius & Till Koglin (2018) E-commerce
and urban planning – comparing knowledge claims in research and planning practice, Urban,
Planning and Transport Research, 6:1, 1-21, DOI: 10.1080/21650020.2018.1428114
To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/21650020.2018.1428114
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Urban, Planning and TransPorT research, 2018
Vol. 6, no. 1, 1–21
https://doi.org/10.1080/21650020.2018.1428114
OPEN ACCESS
E-commerce and urban planning – comparing knowledge
claims in research and planning practice
Fredrik Pettersson
, Lena Winslott Hiselius
and Till Koglin
department of Technology and society – Transport and roads, lund University, lund, sweden
ABSTRACT
ARTICLE HISTORY
In planning for a future sustainable transport system, it is important
to consider the likely efects of e-commerce. This paper analyses
the understanding of impacts of e-commerce on urban planning as
expressed in planning practice in a number of Swedish municipalities.
Knowledge claims concerning the potential efects of e-commerce
are studied through an analysis of planning documents and
supplementing interviews. These knowledge claims in planning
practice are contrasted with the indings presented and discussed
in the research literature. The results indicate that the current
understanding of e-commerce in Swedish planning practice is limited
and that it is primarily viewed as an opportunity to address transport
system issues by reducing passenger transport. However, the
overview of the literature shows that e-commerce has so far only had
limited efects on prevailing mobility habits and that freight transport
has increased in parallel with increased e-commerce. Furthermore,
e-commerce challenges city centres as commercial areas. Thus, from a
planning perspective e-commerce should not be regarded as an easy
solution for an unsustainable transport sector. To harness its potential
beneits, there is a need to develop pro-active planning strategies that
address the potential impacts of e-commerce.
received 2 May 2017
accepted 10 January 2018
KEYWORDS
e-commerce; urban
planning; passenger
transport; urban freight;
retail location
1. Introduction
E-commerce in its various forms – including business-to-business, business-to-consumer,
and consumer-to-consumer – has grown considerably in recent years. World sales of goods
through e-commerce channels are growing at about 20% annually, and total e-commerce
sales in 2014 were estimated to be about $750 billion (Prologis, 2014). In Sweden, national
business-to-consumer e-commerce turnover increased by more than 500% between 2007
and 2014, and in 2014 alone sales increased by 16% (HUI Research, 2015). By 2020 it is
estimated that e-commerce will entail some 200 million consignments in Sweden (HUI
Research, 2016). his fast growth indicates that e-commerce is becoming an important
phenomenon with various potential impacts for the future development of cities. here is
now a variety of e-commerce solutions emerging besides traditional online sales. If ‘brick
CONTACT Fredrik Pettersson
fredrik.pettersson@tft.lth.se
© 2018 The author(s). Published by informa UK limited, trading as Taylor & Francis group.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
and mortar’ is deined as the traditional retail store, ‘click-and-mortar’ is deined as a form
of e-commerce in which customers shop over the Internet, but are also able to physically
visit the retailer’s brick-and-mortar store. here is also a wide variety in the way consumers
can pick up goods purchased online, e.g. in the retailer’s physical store or at pick-up points
provided by a speciic retailer or at common pick-up stations.
Shopping, regardless of form, generates transport of goods. Typically, shopping also generates transport of consumers, and shopping trips account for approximately 20% of all trips
and for approximately 10% of the total passenger mileage according to data from Sweden
and other European countries (Trivector, 2011). More than one third of shopping trips are
made by car (Winslott Hiselius, Smidfelt Rosqvist, & Adell, 2015). It is not entirely clear,
however, what the impacts of e-commerce are concerning things like travel distances and
modal distribution compared to conventional forms of shopping, (e.g. Edwards, McKinnon,
& Cullinane, 2010), although the strong trend towards more Internet shopping is likely to
have impacts on future transport volumes. Additionally, apart from the impacts on the
volume of transport, mobility patterns might also change.
here are several examples in the transport and planning literature where increasing
e-commerce is discussed as an important phenomenon with the potential to be a ‘game
changer’. Visser and Lanzendorf (2004), p. 203 argue that the ‘distribution of goods ordered
over the Internet will over time provide (transport) planners with a huge challenge.’ According
to Cervero (2000), p. 14 the cyber city of tomorrow implies (among other things) that ‘with
e-commerce, truck delivery trips will replace personal shopping trips’ and that ‘e-commerce
suggests the emergence of goods distribution centres in many pockets of the city.’ Cervero
(2000) thus sees e-commerce and its implications as one aspect of an ongoing structural
shit that will exert strong land-use inluences just as past transport innovations have done.
Shao, Yang, Xing, and Yang (2016) sees e-commerce as an alternative demand-management
mechanism with the potential to relieve traic congestion as consumers are re-directed from
physical stores to online stores. Crocco, Eboli, and Mazzulla (2013) stress that an increasing
share of online shopping will likely lead to changes not only in travel behaviour but also in
the use of transport systems and in how shopping locations are distributed.
While it is widely acknowledged that the trend towards increasing e-commerce might
have important short-term and long-term efects on transport, mobility, and land-use structures, there is limited knowledge on how the impacts of increasing e-commerce are handled
in planning practice. Little research has dealt with this issue and empirically analysed this
topic, especially in a Swedish context.
he aim of this paper is to analyse the understanding of the impacts of e-commerce
on land-use planning as expressed in Swedish planning practice. he aim is pursued by
addressing the following research questions. How is e-commerce discussed in planning
practice? Are the impacts of e-commerce that are discussed in planning practice consistent
with the results and discussions in the research literature on transport and planning? What
are the implications of any possible diferences?
In section 2, the research design and analytical approach in the paper are explained, and
in section 3 a review of the current literature on the potential impacts of e-commerce is
presented. his is followed in section 4 by an analysis of knowledge claims about transport
and land-use impacts of e-commerce in Swedish planning practice. Finally, diferences and
similarities between the research literature and planning practice knowledge claims are
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
3
discussed, and some implications for future research and planning practice are outlined
in section 5.
2. Research design
his study focused on the Swedish case, and in order to discuss the understanding of the
potential efects of e-commerce on urban planning, the method comprised a review of
international research literature concerning the impacts of e-commerce, an analysis of
planning documents, and interviews with planners in the Swedish context.
To analyse the knowledge claims in practice, we reviewed a number of Swedish public sector plans and programmes, which were scanned for arguments about the efects of
increasing e-commerce and the consequences these efects will have for urban planning.
he document analysis was supplemented with three interviews with planners in two
Swedish municipalities. hrough this analysis of local and national planning documents
complemented with a limited interview study, we believe that our results have captured the
prevailing view among the responsible planning authorities on the impacts that increasing
e-commerce will have on urban planning in the studied areas.
Finally, the knowledge claims on the impacts of e-commerce on urban planning in the
public sector are discussed in light of the indings of the literature review. Here the efects
identiied in the literature are compared to the efects that are considered in planning practice, some suggestions for future research are made, and conclusions are drawn.
2.1. Analytical approach – comparing knowledge claims in planning practice with
the research literature
he analytical approach in this paper is based on Næss, Hansson, Richardson, and Tennøy
(2013, p. 470) who in a study on land-use and transport planning analysed consistencies
and gaps between ‘research-driven “state-of-the-art” knowledge, and knowledge claims
made in practice.’ he approach of Næss et al. (2013) is characterised by an interest in the
outcomes of planning, and a key attribute of research focusing on planning outcomes (as
opposed to process-oriented research focusing on power dynamics and the output of planning processes) is the ‘recognition of the possibility to anticipate likely impacts of alternative
spatial solutions’ (p. 474).
From this perspective, studying knowledge claims in planning practice is important
because they can inluence the development of urban and transport system structures along
certain trajectories. he way that phenomena are understood (as problems, threats, solutions, or opportunities) is underpinned by knowledge of the phenomenon at hand (see, e.g.
Pettersson, 2013; Rein & Schön, 1993; Tennøy, 2010).
Knowledge (in a broad sense) clearly does not have to be the result of research processes
conducted in academia, but according to the approach in Næss et al. (2013) a distinction
between diferent forms of knowledge is possible (and advisable). Knowledge published
in academic journals is valued more because it has passed through the ilters of academic
scrutiny and been measured against the standards of a scientiic ield.
In the case of land-use and transport planning, Næss et al. (2013) argue that there is
widespread agreement on the generality of a number of linkages between various urban
structural dimensions (e.g. density, residential/workplace location, mixed land use, public
4
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
transport system, road capacity, and parking policy) that form a rather stable foundation
for ‘the-state-of-the-art’ claims concerning the outcomes of certain planning proposals.
In their study, Næss et al. (2013) identiied a number of ‘planning myths’, some of which
were found in oicial planning documents and indicated that the knowledge base of local
planners was in need of an update. he literature overview of the research in section 3 of
this paper will, to the extent it is possible, form a similar evaluative position regarding
the impacts of e-commerce to which we can compare and discuss the knowledge claims
found in public sector plans and programmes. his evaluative position comprises both
empirical identiication of short-term efects and discussion on potential long-term efects.
he research literature might not be the primary choice as a source for the identiication
of short-term efects because there are more empirical results to be found in the ‘grey
literature’ produced by organisations outside of the traditional commercial and academic
publishing and distribution channels. his literature is, however, not peer reviewed and in
many cases might be regarded as subjective. here is furthermore a general lack of statistical data in Sweden connected to e-commerce and related transports, which has recently
been acknowledged by the Swedish authority Transport Analysis (2017). However, when
looking at capturing and discussing potential long-term efects, the research literature is
here regarded as the best source.
2.2. Analytical framework
In order to operationalise the approach inspired by Næss et al. (2013) we draw on Visser
and Lanzendorf (2004), where the potential impacts of e-commerce are divided into direct
mobility efects and indirect accessibility efects. hese two concepts are used to structure
the analysis and more speciically to make the comparison between knowledge claims in the
research literature and in planning practice. Direct mobility efects refer to short-term efects
on transport patterns, where e-commerce can replace or complement individual transport
behaviour and can modify the logistics systems of businesses. Indirect accessibility efects
refer to long-term changes in the activity systems of people, the conigurations of supply
chains, the choices of location, and patterns of land use. hese efects also afect mobility
patterns in the long term (as already discussed by Salomon (1986) and more recently by,
for example, Seebauer, Kulmer, Bruckner, and Winkler (2015)), including modality choices
and car ownership and use. In the analysis presented here, we highlight the following four
interrelated dimensions where increasing e-commerce has potentially signiicant implications for land use and transport system planning in both the short and long term (based
on Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004):
• Passenger transport, including travel distance, transport mode, and frequency
• Location and type of shops, including external shopping centres, city centre, brick
and mortar, show room, etc.
• Logistics, including locations of warehouses, supply chains, etc.
• Freight transport, including transport distance, type of vehicle, and frequency
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
5
3. E-commerce trends and impacts
3.1. Short term/Direct mobility efects
3.1.1. Passenger transport
he consequences of increasing online shopping on individual travel behaviour have been
the focus of many studies (Corpuz & Peachman, 2003; Farag, Krizek, & Dijst, 2006; Farag,
Schwanen, Dijst, & Faber, 2007; Keskinen, Delache, Cruddas, Lindjord, & Iglesias, 2002;
Rotem-Mindali & Weltevreden, 2013; Tonn & Hemrick, 2004; Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004;
Weltevreden & van Rietbergen, 2007; Weltevreden, 2007). he main message from this
growing body of literature is that the empirical evidence for the impacts on individual travel
behaviour varies considerably. E-commerce can both increase and decrease the amount
of travel and can alter the travel patterns of individuals in diferent ways within the existing infrastructure. Some researchers, e.g. van Wee, Chorus, and Geurs (2013), interpret
the collected research as pointing in the direction of a complementarity efect. In other
words, buying online complements the shopping done at physical stores and thus does not
reduce the total number of shopping trips made. As an example, Farag et al. (2007) carried
out a study of shopping online and/or in-store and found that searching online positively
afected the frequency of physical shopping trips, which in turn positively inluenced buying
online. At the same time, the type of product being purchased is one central factor explaining whether or not the direct mobility efects of online shopping result in a substitution
of physical shopping trips (Rotem-Mindali & Weltevreden, 2013). Rotem-Mindali and
Weltevreden (2013) analysed Israeli consumers and concluded that e-commerce did not
reduce passenger transport. he argument was that shopping is a leisure activity and that
the Internet functions largely for searching for new products and opportunities. he result
of that study showed that the decline in travel due to e-shopping is ofset by an increase in
travel for other purchases generated by information gathered by searching online. Another
study found that home deliveries of food reduces emissions of carbon dioxide, but no more
so than a change of transport from cars to buses for these trips would have done (Edwards
et al., 2010).
In summary, and as stated by Friederiszick and Głowicka (2015), the question of whether
online retailing is a complement or a substitute to traditional retailing is still unanswered.
3.1.2. Location and type of shops
Based on current land-use structures, research has been carried out on the relationship
between e-commerce and the development, attractiveness, and accessibility of today’s city
centres. For instance, Farag et al. (2006) present results indicating that good shop accessibility has a negative impact on the frequency of e-shopping. Weltevreden (2007) stresses
that because the potential for e-commerce varies depending on the type of product, it is
also important to consider the type of retail categories at diferent locations because they
are afected diferently by e-commerce.
Empirical results from Weltevreden and van Rietbergen (2009) indicate that city centres
are the most likely to be afected by the substitution of e-shopping for in-store shopping,
followed by city district centres, and that village centres are less likely to be afected by
e-commerce than city centres. In analysing the efect of e-commerce on Dutch inner cities, Boschma and Weltevreden (2004) found that retail sectors with the highest rates of
6
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
e-commerce (i.e. books, CDs, and clothes) are largely concentrated in Dutch inner cities,
indicating that these areas will be the most afected by e-commerce.
3.1.3. Freight transport
he most obvious and direct mobility efect of e-commerce on freight transport is that
the last segment of the supply chain is modiied when trucks deliver the purchased goods
either to a pick-up point or to the home of the customer. Earlier research has identiied the
following three commonly used supply chains in e-commerce retailing: retailers that are
only active in the online segment with dedicated vehicles for delivery to customers, retailers
using a parcel carrier’s existing distribution network to deliver the goods to the customer,
and click-and-mortar retailers (retailers selling through brick-and-mortar stores as well as
through an online channel) sometimes using a dedicated leet of vehicles for delivery to
customers (Vanelslander, Deketele, & Van Hove, 2011).
According to the literature reviewed in van Loon, McKinnon, Deketele, and Dewaele
(2014), an increase in demand for e-commerce might result in a direct increase in truck
kilometres. his is due to the descaling of transport operations when using smaller vehicles
and longer routes for home deliveries (including failed deliveries) and new return lows
(Kröger, Fergusson, & Skinner, 2003; van Loon et al., 2014). Also, for e-commerce to become
more attractive from a customer perspective, fast home delivery at all hours is desired
(Karlsson & Rosén, 2003), but this could lead to ineicient routes and a low loading factor
(Sui & Rejeski, 2002; Visser, Nemoto, & Browne, 2013).
On the other hand, with e-commerce, the transport trucks and small vans could take
the place of consumers travelling to shops. However, as pointed out earlier, the impacts
on individual mobility are not clear; it is not evident that e-commerce necessarily leads to
reduced passenger transport (Rotem-Mindali & Weltevreden, 2013), and if substitution
does take place then home delivery might replace travel that would otherwise be made on
foot, by bike, or by public transport (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004). Furthermore, if there is
a complementary efect as suggested by, for example, van Wee et al. (2013), there will be
freight transport both to the traditional brick and mortar shop and for home delivery.
3.2. Long term/Indirect accessibility efects
3.2.1. Location and type of shops
Empirical research on the spatial efects of the adoption of e-commerce by retailers and
consumers is limited. Boschma and Weltevreden (2004) suggest that due to their centrality,
inner cities are attractive locations for retailers to develop a brick and mortar strategy in
which the customer might order products either online or physically in a store and then
might either pick up the order directly at a local branch of the store or have it delivered to
their home. Inner cities also provide an advantage over other shopping locations because
it is easier for consumers to pick up and pay for the goods they ordered via the Internet at
a central location where they can also perform other activities, including other shopping
activities (i.e. trip chaining) (Boschma & Weltevreden, 2004).
Another claim about indirect accessibility efects is that e-commerce afects the spatial distribution of brick and mortar shops. Visser and Lanzendorf (2004) discuss how
the current process of decentralisation and suburbanisation of distribution systems for
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
7
business-to-consumer e-commerce might gradually extend into more remote and less
densely populated areas.
Friederiszick and Głowicka (2015) argue that it is clear that brick and mortar retailers
either need to scale down their shop networks or need to ind a new role for brick and
mortar stores in an omni-channel (oline/online) environment. Another argument about
indirect accessibility efects is that e-shopping (in combination with the potential for working remotely enabled by the Internet) can allow for greater opportunities to live in remote
locations. his argument, expressing an ‘end of geography’ view, is aligned with ideas stated
by some commentators arguing that space and place are becoming meaningless in the digital
era. More closely linked to e-commerce, this argument proposes that living near a shopping
location becomes less important when it is possible to order everything online and have it
delivered to the home (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004).
At the same time, e-commerce is not the only trend afecting retailing, which makes it
diicult to disentangle it from other trends. For example, in Sweden a growing desire for
‘fun shopping’ and the growth of externally located out-of-town retailing are as much (or
even more) important for the retailing sector as e-commerce (Hagson, 2003; Haraldsson
& Svensson, 2002).
3.2.2. Passenger transport
he indirect accessibility efects from e-shopping due to changes in location of retail outlets
also include long-term inluences on mobility patterns, for example, through changing conditions for modal choice (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004). Research has shown that retail outlets
in locations without conditions for sustainable modes of transport have a major impact on
the amount of travel (Carling, Håkansson, & Rudholm, 2013; Jia, Carling, & Håkansson,
2013; Seebauer et al., 2015). E-shopping might thus indirectly reduce the opportunities for
shopping trips made with slow transport modes such as walking and cycling and for living
without a car, and it might increase the average trip length and frequency of car use for
shopping trips. Studies focusing on restricted external locations for retailers and shopping
centres in Sweden indicate a potential reduction of vehicle kilometres (Swedish Transport
Administration (Vägverket), 2008). At the same time, the long-term efect of e-shopping on
locations can be argued to go both ways. Weltevreden and van Rietbergen (2007) showed
that a location’s attractiveness in terms of the accessibility of diferent modes of transport,
the supply of shopping, and the availability of leisure activities inluence how e-shopping
alternatives are used. Average trip lengths and car use for shopping trips might on the whole
increase due to spatial redistribution in retailing facilities (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004).
In the long term, on-line shopping might reduce the need for owning a car (which of
course would greatly inluence the choice of transport mode and the total distance travelled
for shopping purposes) (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004). It is, however, debatable if there is
any empirical evidence supporting this claim. Casas, Zmud, and Bricka (2001) found no
evidence for e-commerce leading to less travel. Another study of Swedish Internet shoppers
by Winslott Hiselius et al. (2015) did, however, ind that there were some mobility pattern
diferences between frequent online shoppers and those with less frequent online shopping
behaviour, although there were no simple and conclusive overall diferences in total travel
patterns. However, a signiicant overall diference in mode choice could be seen in which
frequent online shoppers used sustainable transport modes to a greater extent than those
who do not shop regularly online.
8
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
3.2.3. Freight transport
he indirect accessibility efects for freight transport include demand efects and shits in
consumption patterns (Fichter, 2003). Demand efects refer to the possibility that having
more information available and lower transaction costs for purchases will lead to more
purchases. E-commerce means that people can buy more for the same amount of money,
which in turn could increase freight transport volumes. Shits in consumption patterns refer
to increases in impulse purchases and increased demand for products found on the Internet.
his could also entail that products are shipped over longer physical distances and would
thus inluence both freight transport volumes and patterns (Visser & Lanzendorf, 2004).
3.2.4. Logistics
hrough indirect accessibility efects, e-commerce not only afects the operations related to
transportation, but also the structure of the entire supply chain, e.g. through the purchase
of goods from locations very far away (Romm, 2002). Moreover, in e-commerce, large
central warehouses seem generally to be preferred over local distribution centres, (e.g.
Matthews, Hendrickson, & Lave, 2002), although Visser and Lanzendorf (2004) discuss a
decentralisation of distribution systems that locates distribution centres close to the homes
of consumers. With regard to space needs, Romm (2002) estimated that e-commerce could
reduce the need for one-and-a-half billion square feet of retail space in the US – about 5%
of the total – and up to one billion square feet of warehouse space.
New delivery options such as pick-up points and parcel lockers related to online shopping
have been identiied. hese are oten located at key nodes in the public transport system
and allow consumers to collect products that have been ordered online. In these cases there
is no need for express couriers to make the delivery, thus reducing travel distance (e.g.
Taniguchi & Kakimoto, 2003; Weltevreden & van Rietbergen, 2009). Although there are
a number of hypotheses regarding the efects of e-commerce, it is not yet established how
the impending restructuring of freight transport systems will afect sustainable transport
as a whole (Mokhtarian, 2004; Weltevreden, 2007; Cairns, 2005).
3.3. Summary
Research within this area has mostly been conducted over the irst decade of the 21st
century, and empirical evidence for the efect of online shopping is sparse. Empirically
validated efects identiied in the research literature so far include direct mobility efects
for a relatively a short time horizon with e-commerce being carried out within more or
less unchanged land-use structures. Stronger trends and changes are likely to come with
increasing e-commerce, but these are not possible to empirically verify yet. he main indings from the literature are summarised in Table 1.
Table 1. summary of indings in the literature.
Dimensions
Passenger transport
Short term/Direct mobility efects
inconclusive
location
some efects in city centres
Freight transport
logistics
increasing volumes
existing structures prevail
Long term/Indirect accessibility efects
decreasing volumes
change of mobility patterns, vehicle type, etc.
locations closer to customers, efects on types of
shops
inconclusive regarding volumes
new logistic systems closer to customers
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
9
4. Knowledge claims in planning practice
4.1. The Swedish context
In the Swedish context, the majority of current shopping trips are destined for external
shopping centres or peripherally located big-box retailers. Currently, 78% of purchases
in Sweden are made in brick and mortar shops and 22% are made online (HUI Research,
2016). Of the brick and mortar purchases, 33% are made in city centres, 31% in external
shopping centres, and 14% in other big-box retailing areas (HUI Research, 2016). Because
big-box retailing areas are typically located in peripheral areas, this means that current
mobility patterns for shopping trips are dominated by trips to external or peripherally
located brick and mortar shops.
4.2. National planning documents
We identiied three planning documents regarding policies and planning for commerce
produced at the national level in Sweden. he reports are produced by the Swedish Transport
Administration (2011); the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (2015), and
the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (2015), and an explicit purpose of
all three documents is to provide support to local-level planners. A common denominator
in these planning documents is the conclusion that e-commerce so far has not contributed
to a decrease in passenger transport for shopping, while freight transport has increased.
herefore, considering the observed short-term mobility efects, it is concluded that e-commerce has not had a positive efect from a sustainability standpoint. However, in all three
reports it is argued that if long term and indirect accessibility efects are considered, there
is potential for e-commerce to support less car-dependent lifestyles for individuals. It is also
argued that more long-term structural adjustments, e.g. the facilitation of pick-up points
and other new forms of logistics systems close to the customers, will have the potential to
mitigate the problems caused by increasing freight distribution in the short term.
4.3. Local planning documents
In Sweden, the municipalities have the monopoly on spatial planning and can thus steer the
location of business, shopping, and residential areas. his is regulated through the Planning
and Building Act (SFS 2010: 900, §2), which states: ‘It is a municipal afair to plan the use
of land and water according to this Act’ (authors’ translation).
hus, Swedish municipalities have extensive control over spatial planning and the use of
land within the borders of the municipality (Koglin, Holmberg, & Hiselius, 2014). Spatial
planning is also connected to the mobility of the people living in the city or municipality and
therefore inluences travel behaviour (Koglin, 2013, 2015). In connection to e-commerce,
it is therefore interesting to take a closer look at the planning documents and policies from
the municipalities and to analyse what impact e-commerce has had on planning and travel
behaviour.
he research for this paper included a study of planning documents and policies in the
larger Swedish cities of Malmö, Gothenburg, Lund, Umeå, Västerås, and Stockholm. he
cities were chosen in order to have a variety of cities across Sweden. Moreover, we also
chose cities that, in a Swedish context, are known for their work with sustainable transport
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F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
issues and are of larger size because we assumed that larger cities would be more at the
forefront of dealing with e-commerce in their plans and policies. Overall, 16 documents
were analysed (see Appendix 1 for an overview). he documents included development
plans, transport strategies, climate strategies, freight transport strategies, and environmental strategies. he oldest document was the development plan from the city of Umeå from
1998, but the other documents were all from 2005 and onwards. he selected documents
were chosen because they seemed to be the most likely to deal with e-commerce and urban
planning. he documents were analysed for how e-commerce is handled or if it is handled
at all. he documents were searched with the following keywords: e-commerce; Internet;
freight/goods1. he latter key word was added when the analysis indicated that very few of
the documents mentioned e-commerce or the Internet.
4.4. The occurrence of analysed key words
his initial review of planning documents showed that e-commerce/Internet and the efects
of e-commerce are rarely mentioned in important strategy documents such as the comprehensive plans, and the mobility efects of e-commerce are typically absent. Also, freight
transport in general is not addressed in much detail in the planning documents. For example, the Traic Data Report from the city of Umeå (City of Umeå, 2010) is concerned with
neither freight transport nor e-commerce. In the document concerning climate change
(City of Västerås, 2012a) and the comprehensive plan from the city of Västerås (City of
Västerås, 2012b), freight transport is only addressed briely and e-commerce not at all.
Similar indings apply to the climate change programme of the city of Gothenburg (City of
Gothenburg, 2014), the Sustainable Mobility Plans of the cities of Lund and Malmö (City
of Lund, 2014; City of Malmö, 2015), and Stockholm’s action plan for climate and energy
(City of Stockholm, 2012).
4.5. Efects of e-commerce
Only in a few of the case cities could we ind documents that mentioned freight transport
and e-commerce in connection to urban planning. he city of Gothenburg’s comprehensive
plan (City of Gothenburg, 2009) does, for instance, make some reference to e-commerce.
At the time Gothenburg’s comprehensive plan was written, the city had already observed
that e-commerce’s revenue had grown. In the plan, it is stated that the retail market is
changing and that Gothenburg needs to consider that if e-commerce continues to grow as
it has there will be a need to promote the creation of logistic areas in collaboration with
local distribution centres (City of Gothenburg, 2009). Such planning would thus afect the
spatial distribution of retail and logistics operations.
he city of Stockholm discusses the trend of increasing e-commerce in their comprehensive plan, which states that this might change the supply and structure of services in the city
centre. However, exactly how e-commerce might afect urban planning is not addressed in
the plan (City of Stockholm, 2010). Similar ideas are mentioned by the city of Lund in their
comprehensive plan where it is argued that the structure of services and the demand for
logistics space might change if e-commerce continues to grow. It is stated in the plan that
such changes might also afect the supply of retail stores and shopping in the city centre and
the urban form and land use in the city (City of Lund, 2010). E-commerce is also mentioned
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
11
in the comprehensive plan of the city of Malmö, although it is a minor aspect of the plan
and the only thing that is mentioned is that e-commerce is growing (City of Malmö, 2014a).
E-commerce plays a small but important role in the environmental programme for
the city of Gothenburg. Gothenburg wants to support e-commerce for everyday goods in
order to allow for consolidation and coordination of the deliveries and thus decrease the
pollution produced by distribution vehicles in the city and to reduce the need for customers
to drive to physical stores. Although the programme does not explain how this measure
is to be carried out, the measure is described as supporting a decrease in car use (City of
Gothenburg, 2013).
Both the city of Malmö and the city of Västerås have programmes for freight transport
in which e-commerce is mentioned. In the programme of the city of Malmö, it is assumed
that e-commerce will increase and that this will change transport patterns in the city. It is
also assumed that e-commerce will lead to more home deliveries substituting for deliveries
to shops. According to the programme, this could lead to a diferent traic safety situation
in Malmö, especially concerning increasing use of delivery vans within residential areas,
which could increase the risk of accidents involving children. Urban freight consolidation
centres are seen as an opportunity to reduce the environmental impact of freight transport.
hus, according to Malmö, e-commerce is both a challenge from a traic safety perspective
and an opportunity to reduce motorised transportation in the city (City of Malmö, 2014b).
he city of Västerås sees similar opportunities for decreasing the impact of freight transport
and individual shopping journeys. In the city’s freight programme, it is expected that as
e-commerce increases it will support a situation where individual mobility will decrease.
hrough consolidation of city logistics centres, distribution can be coordinated for home
deliveries and thus the impact of freight transport will also decrease (City of Västerås, 2015).
In summary, for many documents no direct mobility efects of e-commerce are mentioned. Moreover, the arguments found concerning long-term impacts/accessibility efects
of increasing e-commerce on urban planning indicate that while the issue is on the radar,
so far little is known about the efects of e-commerce on urban form, the service structure,
and the way e-commerce might change people’s travel behaviour. Overall, it can be concluded that the review of e-commerce in planning documents shows that the understanding
of the potential impacts of e-commerce on urban planning is tentative. On the occasions
where it is mentioned in the documents, e-commerce appears to be seen more in terms of
opportunities than challenges. Above all e-commerce is viewed as beneicial for addressing
environment-related and climate change-related transport challenges.
4.6. Interviews with local planners
he municipalities of Malmö and Västerås were approached in the interview study because
these cities are at the forefront in working with freight transport planning programmes.
Both cities have developed freight transport programmes quite recently, and in the Swedish
context these cities can be considered to be at the frontier of working with issues concerning
sustainable transport systems, especially freight and logistics.
Two diferent planners in Malmö were interviewed, one from the Planning Oice and
one from the Roadworks Department. In Västerås, a strategic planner with a focus on
freight was interviewed. All three of the planners had been involved in developing the
freight transport programmes.
12
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
he following questions were posed in the interviews. What do you consider the most
important efects e-commerce will have in the short and the long term? How do you think
these efects will afect the development of cities and regions? Which Swedish cities/regions
will be most afected? Do you think that the potential consequences of e-commerce are
adequately addressed in current planning practice? If not, what should be changed?
he interviews conirmed the indings of the planning document study, which indicated
that from the perspective of planners the understanding of the potential impacts of growing
e-commerce is limited. he interviewees agreed that both direct mobility efects and possible
future indirect impacts of e-commerce currently receive inadequate attention in plans and
programmes, and they ofered some relections on why this is the case. he subheadings
below describe the main messages in these relections.
4.6.1. Lack of knowledge and uncertainty
Key reasons for the current inadequate attention paid to e-commerce were reported to
be a lack of knowledge of direct mobility efects and the uncertainties in predicting what
e-commerce will mean for urban development, i.e. uncertainties about the possible indirect
accessibility efects of increasing e-commerce. One of the planners from Malmö saw the
current phase in e-commerce as being in the midst of ‘…revolutionary developments of
which the long-term consequences are not well understood.’ (Planner, the City of Malmö,
Planning oice) he planner from Västerås said that the diiculty in predicting the consequences of increasing e-commerce was one reason for not paying much attention to it.
So far, the work on developing freight transport programmes and strategies in Västerås
has been focusing primarily on addressing issues on a more general level, e.g. concerning
national and global freight lows.
4.6.2. Limited substitution
he interviews also gave a more balanced picture concerning the opportunities and challenges related to growing e-commerce. While the review of planning documents showed
that growing e-commerce is oten associated with assumptions that passenger transport will
be substituted by home-delivery and that e-commerce will consequently be beneicial for
addressing transport-related challenges, the interviewed planners expressed more cautious
views. As a counterpoint to what is argued in their freight programme (City of Västerås,
2015), the planner from Västerås said that they were aware that ‘that at least so far online
shopping had not contributed to decreasing mobility.’
4.6.3. Impacts on retail location
he planner from Västerås and the planners from Malmö had slightly diferent opinions
on the potential impact of increasing e-commerce on the inner city. he planner from
Västerås argued that e-commerce will probably not inluence the retail structure of the inner
city much because shopping is also a social activity and not just determined by economic
rationality. According to this view, the indirect accessibility efects on localisation will be
limited and the inner city will retain its function as both a commercial centre and as a social
meeting place regardless of the increases in online shopping. his planner also thought that
e-commerce will inluence the development in semi-rural and rural areas more than in
urban areas. he argument was that e-commerce will provide increased opportunities for
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
13
consumption outside cities and that this will in turn lead to more mobility, both for freight
distribution and for individuals having to travel to pick-up points.
he planners from Malmö also had slightly diferent opinions concerning the longterm indirect accessibility efects on localisation that will follow from changes in consumer
behaviour. hey argued that if e-commerce reinforces the current trends in retailing, where
small, specialised inner city shops disappear or relocate to external shopping centres, it will
deplete the range of available goods in the city centre. According to the planners, this will
also necessitate a response from the city to make sure that the inner city retains its function as a social meeting place. One such response could be for the city to focus on creating
conditions for experiences rather than commerce in the city centre.
4.6.4. A limited tool box to meet planning challenges
However, as a counterpoint to the trend of inner city retail depletion, one of the planners
from Malmö also conirmed the trend towards omni-channel retailing. he planning oice
in Malmö now frequently receives requests from companies looking for facilities that are
suited both for keeping large stocks and for functioning as traditional brick and mortar
shops. According to the planner, it is quite challenging to ind suitable premises and sites for
this type of retailing concept. his indicates that the indirect accessibility efects on localisation are now becoming an important planning issue. Furthermore, it highlights that keeping
stock of suitable sites and premises for omni-channel retailing is one important planning
task for cities aspiring to safeguard the role of the city centre as a commercial district.
Omni-channel retailing also emphasises the need for ‘micro terminals’ within the city
to enable consolidation and to provide eicient routes for last-mile delivery. Here a conlict between current planning approaches and the trend towards more e-commerce was
highlighted. In general, both the cities of Malmö and Västerås aim to densify and to reduce
motorised traic. he current planning approach to handle distribution of freight in urban
areas is to put forward freight consolidation and coordinated distribution from city logistics
centres as a solution. However, the interviewees argued that there is a conlict between these
ambitions and the current rationality among logistics companies. First, these operators oten
run their own distribution vehicles for reasons of branding and competition, and second
there is a conlict between aiming to speed up deliveries as a competitive advantage and
consolidating and coordinating urban freight distribution.
his is a major challenge for a municipality to address. According to one of the planners,
the lack of viable business models enabling the public sector to take the lead in developing micro consolidation and coordination facilities in the city is one important barrier to
address the challenge of increasing urban freight distribution following from e-commerce.
Public engagement runs the risk of distorting competition in the logistics sector, and this
might be irreconcilable with current laws on competition. he planner discussing this issue
visualised the proposed solution as a kind of public transport service for freight distribution and argued that the public sector, especially the state, has an important role to play in
establishing a playing ield that creates a willingness to pay for such a service.
To summarise, because we only conducted three interviews with planners from two
diferent municipalities, the generalisability of the results of the interviews are clearly limited. However, the interview study conirmed the indings from the document analysis that
e-commerce is only treated to a very limited extent in Swedish planning practice. he interviews also gave some insights as to why this is the case, for example, the lack of knowledge
14
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
on the impacts of increasing e-commerce on mobility habits and on transport and logistics
patterns. Another issue raised by one of the planners from Malmö is the limited toolbox
available for local planners to address challenges or to take advantage of opportunities
when it comes to impacts (both direct and indirect) of e-commerce. Even if the impacts and
causal mechanisms of increasing e-commerce were well-understood, the possibility of using
planning to pro-actively harness potential beneits or mitigate negative efects seems to be
restricted. Given the limited scope of the interview study, we acknowledge that there is a
need for more research in order to make more grounded claims on the state of knowledge
on e-commerce among Swedish planners, but also to increase our understanding of how
planning can be used to address the direct and indirect impacts of e-commerce.
5. Discussion
he aim of this paper was to analyse the understanding of the potential impacts of e-commerce on land-use planning in Swedish planning practice. hree research questions were
posed, and these are answered below.
(1) How is e-commerce discussed in planning practice?
he review of municipal planning documents showed that direct mobility efects of
e-commerce are rarely mentioned. he arguments found concerning long-term impacts,
or indirect accessibility efects, of increasing e-commerce on urban planning indicate
limited knowledge about the efects of e-commerce on urban form, the service structure,
and the way e-commerce might change people’s travel behaviour. When e-commerce
was addressed, the arguments were generally based on the notion of substitution, where
online shopping will replace physical passenger travel with freight distribution.
Consequently, the impacts of e-commerce on mobility are oten put forward as a positive force in ambitions to mitigate the problems associated with transport, most notably
for curbing CO2 emissions. Urban freight consolidation centres are oten put forward
as a solution to the challenge of increasing freight distribution in cities.
he interviews with local planners gave a more balanced view on the opportunities to
reduce individual mobility as a consequence of increasing e-commerce. A potential
conlict was identiied between current planning strategies emphasising consolidation
and coordination of city logistics and the increasing emphasis by e-commerce actors
on the need for speedy home deliveries. he interviews showed that one reason for
not including the impacts of e-commerce in plans and programmes is that the current
knowledge base is limited. his is not surprising because research within this area has
mostly been conducted within the past 10 or 15 years, and the empirical evidence for the
efect of online shopping is sparse. he possibility to capture urban land-use planning
and the efects related to things like spatial distribution, lifestyle choices, and changes
in the logistic system are therefore also limited.
(2) Are the impacts of e-commerce as discussed in planning practice consistent with
results and discussions in the research literature on transport and planning?
he analysis of the planning documents showed that the impacts of e-commerce on
transport and urban development have not yet become a prominent feature in plans
and programmes in Swedish cities.
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
15
Comparing the efects as stated in the interviews and as described in local planning
documents (to the degree that e-commerce is mentioned) with the indings of the
literature review in Table 1, the efects recognised in planning practice seem to be
concentrated on the long-term accessibility efects. he national planning documents
discuss direct mobility efects to a higher degree than the local planning documents
and are more in line with the empirical results presented in the research literature. he
direct mobility efects that have been observed so far in the national planning documents coincide with the efects presented in the research literature. he same goes for
the long-term efects that are mentioned in the national planning documents as being
possible but not yet observed.
(3) What are the implications of possible diferences?
First, the review of the available research indicates that so far e-commerce has done
little to alter prevailing individual mobility habits in terms of travel frequency and
trip lengths. his is important from a planning perspective for the following reasons.
As shown in section 4, it is oten assumed in planning documents that e-commerce
will result in fewer shopping trips through substitution. However, the general picture
emerging from the research literature is that there is currently no evidence to support
this assumption. It can be argued that the expectation of substitution, i.e. that e-commerce will replace individual mobility, is still a ‘planning myth’ (c.f. Næss et al., 2013).
One implication for urban planning is consequently that the continued trend towards
e-commerce should not be taken as meaning that e-commerce will be an unproblematic solution for sustainability problems with urban transport. his is not to say that
the impacts of e-commerce on mobility patterns necessarily contradict sustainability
ambitions. It rather says that the possible sustainability beneits of changes to consumer
and mobility habits from more e-commerce cannot be taken for granted. If, for example,
the ambition is that the impacts of e-commerce on mobility patterns should contribute
to reducing transport energy use, decreasing carbon emissions, reducing congestion,
and to other sustainability objectives, then this will require a strategic approach to
urban mobility and a holistic perspective on the relationship between urban functions
and the transport system. his becomes even more important because the results of
Boschma and Weltevreden (2004); Friederiszick and Głowicka (2015); Weltevreden
and van Rietbergen (2009) suggest that increasing e-commerce reinforces a tendency
where the role of the city centre as the primary location for commercial exchange and
retail services is challenged. It is oten the case that the rationale of current public
transport systems is to provide access to city centres, while access between peripheral
urban areas is a neglected issue. If e-commerce reinforces tendencies towards retail
localisation in external shopping centres and peripheral big-box areas, the long-term
accessibility implications are important. In the Swedish context this could mean, for
example, that improving the possibilities to use public transport or cycling to get to
external shopping centres or big-box retailing areas could be essential to support and
facilitate a less car-dependent lifestyle (e.g. Smidfelt Rosqvist & Winslott Hiselius,
2016). Second, for freight transport the review of the literature showed that the direct
mobility efects are more straightforward and better understood. he overall efect of
e-commerce on freight transport is an increase in volume through more home deliveries and deliveries to pick-up points complementing logistic patterns delivering to
16
F. PETTERSSON ET AL.
brick and mortar shops, both in city centres and in peripheral or external areas. One
important planning challenge identiied here concerns how to reconcile trends towards
more and faster home deliveries with current approaches to addressing problems with
urban freight transport through consolidation and coordination of urban distribution
transports. It might, however, be possible to ind synergies between sustainable urban
freight initiatives and the ambitions to provide fast and lexible home delivery options
with a proactive approach. An example of such an approach could, for instance, be that
the city uses traic restriction zoning to only allow for motorised distribution traic at
certain hours while allowing for freight distribution by electric cargo bikes at all hours.
his could encourage the development of services and business models that currently
stand little chance in competition with traditional freight distribution models.
he results of this study also have implications for future research. he interviews with
the planners showed that even though e-commerce is typically only mentioned in
passing in policy and planning documents, the diferent efects, including both direct
mobility efects and long-term accessibility, are important issues in planning practice.
Broader studies, for example, using surveys to establish a general understanding of how
planners view the efects of e-commerce, or what kind of planning measures they see
as relevant to realising the beneits of e-commerce, could be useful. More research is
also needed on how the efects of e-commerce can be integrated into urban planning
strategies in order to promote the potential beneits of increased online shopping.
Systematic reviews of international experiences could be important to facilitate best
practice transfer. Statistical evidence for the efects of e-commerce is currently lacking
in Sweden, and there is a need for a national initiative to start collecting this type of
information. Since the key issue at stake concern how to make informed planning
decisions in a context of an uncertain development, methods such as risk analysis or
scenario analysis, where diferent possible futures are explored, could also be useful.
6. Conclusions
To the extent that e-commerce is mentioned at all in Swedish local planning and policy
documents, there is oten a focus on mobility efects. Several examples were found of local
planning documents expecting e-commerce to lead to individual mobility being substituted
with freight distribution. his expectancy of substitution, which generally was put forward
as an opportunity to deal with urban transport challenges, was contrasted to the review
of the research literature. he research literature showed that, at least so far, there is no
evidence of e-commerce reducing individual mobility while freight transport, especially
distribution in urban areas, has increased as a result of e-commerce. he interviews, as well
as the national planning documents, gave a more balanced view that was more in line with
research literature, both concerning the short-term direct mobility efects and long-term
accessibility efects of e-commerce.
To sum up, academic research, national planning documents and the interviewed planners are more or less in agreement that the short and long term efects of e-commerce
are still very uncertain, but there is some degree of wishful thinking in the local planning
documents.
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
17
he results of this study also show that planners are currently facing a number of challenges linked to increasing e-commerce, and one of the biggest challenges to current
planning approaches to urban logistics, such as consolidation centres, is that faster home
deliveries are currently considered a competitive strategy for many e-commerce actors. Also,
new concepts, such as omni-channel retailing, mean that there is a need for new kinds of
retail facilities and retail locations. An important task in planning is to address these needs,
for example, by identifying suitable premises and locations for omni-channel retailing.
More research on e-commerce and planning is needed, and the results from this study
might be useful for developing research designs allowing for more generalisable results. he
results also points to the need for further studies on how to develop planning capacity to
address the impacts of increasing e-commerce. An important aspect of increasing planning
capacity is to make sure that available research knowledge on the impacts of e-commerce,
both concerning short-term mobility efects and long-term accessibility efects, is disseminated to practitioners.
Note
1.
he following variants of Swedish words were used: e-handel, näthandel, distanshandel,
hemleverans, Internet, godstransporter, distributionstraik.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for insightful comments and valuable suggestions
for changes, which greatly improved the paper.
Disclosure statement
No potential conlict of interest was reported by the authors.
Funding
his work was funded by Swedish Energy Agency [grant number 2014-001245].
ORCID
Fredrik Pettersson
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4991-5100
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8376-5743
Lena Winslott Hiselius
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7806-9927
Till Koglin
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Appendix 1. Local planning documents
• City of Gothenburg (2009) Översiktsplan för Göteborg – Övergripande mål och strategier,
strategiska frågor, inriktning för stadens utveckling. Stadsbyggnadskontoret
• City of Gothenburg (2013) Miljöprogram för Göteborgs Stad 2013. Miljöförvaltningen
• City of Gothenburg (2014) Klimatstrategiskt program för Göteborg. Miljöförvaltningen
• City of Lund (2010) Översiktsplan för Lunds kommun. Stadsbyggnadskontoret
• City of Lund (2014) LUNDAMATS III – Strategi för ett hållbart transportsystem i Lunds
kommun
• City of Malmö (2014a) ÖVERSIKTSPLAN FÖR MALMÖ PLANSTRATEGI.
Stadsbyggnadskontoret
• City of Malmö (2014b) Godstraikprogram för Malmö
• City of Malmö (2015) TRAFIK- och MOBILITETSPLAN 2015 – För ett tillgängligt och hållbart
Malmö
• City of Stockholm (2005) Handbok Samordnade godstransporter i stadsmiljö – Logistikcentraler.
Environment and Health Administration
• City of Stockholm (2010) PROMENADSTADEN – Översiktsplan för Stockholm.
Stadsbyggnadskontoret
• City of Stockholm (2012) Stockholms åtgärdsplan för klimat och energi 2012–2015 MED
UTBLICK TILL 2030. City of Stockholm, Miljöförvaltningen
• City of Umeå (1998) ÖPL för en hållbar utveckling. Stadsbyggnadskontoret
URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH
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•
•
•
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City of Umeå (2010) Traikdatarapport 2010–2012. Gator och Park
City of Västerås (2012a) Klimatprogram 2012
City of Västerås (2012b) Västerås översiktsplan 2026 med utblick mot 2050. Stadsbyggnadskontoret
City of Västerås (2015) Program För Traikslagsövergripande Infrastruktur För Gods 2015